GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate

A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis

Climate Research Committee

Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1994



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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis Climate Research Committee Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1994

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grant No. ATM-9316824. Any opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Science Foundation. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 94-67804 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05180-0 Additional copies of this report are available from National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) B-485 Copyright 1994 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Cover: Reproduction of an oil painting titled J's Landscape by Edith Paipert Namias. The artist studied at the Corcoran School of Art and the American University. Exhibitions of her work have appeared in the Smithsonian, the Corcoran Biennial Exhibit, the Baltimore Museum, the University of Virginia, the George Washington University, and the National Collection of Paintings, among many others. She is represented in several collections, including those of the Argentine Embassy and the Watkins Gallery of American University. Edith and her husband Jerry, an internationally recognized pioneer in the study of climate variability, reside in La Jolla, California.

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis CLIMATE RESEARCH COMMITTEE ERIC J. BARRON (Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park DAVID S. BATTISTI, University of Washington, Seattle BYRON A. BOVILLE*, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado KIRK BRYAN*, NOAA/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, Princeton, New Jersey GEORGE F. CARRIER*, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts ROBERT D. CESS*, State University of New York, Stony Brook RUSS E. DAVIS, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California MELINDA M. HALL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts THOMAS R. KARL, National Climatic Data Center. Asheville, North Carolina JEFFREY T. KIEHL, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DOUGLAS G. MARTINSON*, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York CLAIRE L. PARKINSON, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland BARRY SALTZMAN, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut RICHARD P. TURCO, University of California, Los Angeles Ex Officio Members EDWARD S. SARACHIK, University of Washington, Seattle SOROOSH SOROOSHIAN, University of Arizona, Tucson PETER J. WEBSTER, University of Colorado, Boulder Staff WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director KENT L. GRONINGER, Senior Program Officer MARK D. HANDEL, Senior Program Officer DORIS E. BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant THERESA M. FISHER, Administrative Assistant *   Denotes past members who were active during the preparation of this report.

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis BOARD ON ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES AND CLIMATE JOHN A. DUTTON (Chair), Pennsylvania State University, University Park CRAIG E. DORMAN, Consultant, Arlington, Virginia MICHAEL FOX-RABINOVITZ, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, Maryland PETER V. HOBBS, University of Washington, Seattle WITOLD F. KRAJEWSKI, The University of Iowa, Iowa City MARGARET A. LeMONE, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado DOUGLAS K. LILLY, University of Oklahoma, Norman RICHARD S. LINDZEN, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge GERALD R. NORTH, Texas A&M University, College Station EUGENE M. RASMUSSON, University of Maryland, College Park ROBERT J. SERAFIN, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Ex Officio Members ERIC J. BARRON, Pennsylvania State University, University Park WILLIAM L. CHAMEIDES, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta MARVIN A. GELLER, State University of New York, Stony Brook Staff WILLIAM A. SPRIGG, Director KENT L. GRONINGER, Senior Program Officer MARK D. HANDEL, Senior Program Officer DAVID H. SLADE, Senior Program Officer DORIS E. BOUADJEMI, Administrative Assistant THERESA M. FISHER, Administrative Assistant ELLEN F. RICE, Editor

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES M. GORDON WOLMAN (Chair), The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Canada WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville W. BARCLAY KAMB, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena PERRY L. McCARTY, Stanford University, California RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University of Kingston, Ontario, Canada THOMAS A. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN SILBERGELD, Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C. STEVEN M. STANLEY, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida WARREN WASHINGTON, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Staff STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director JEANETTE SPOON, Administrative Officer SANDRA FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate ROBIN ALLEN, Senior Project Assistant

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Robert M. White are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis Preface The 10-year international Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) program was a major element of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) with participation by the United States and many other countries. As TOGA approached its midpoint in 1989, two realizations with respect to the program had begun to emerge. The first was that, despite the remarkable progress already made, 10 years would not be long enough to achieve fully the objectives of TOGA's observational, modeling, and prediction components. The second realization was that climate variations on seasonal-to-interannual time scales seemed to be intimately linked with variations in extratropical sea-surface temperature (SST) and land-surface properties. This second realization cast attention on the possibility of acting on the achievements of TOGA to expand the area of inquiry beyond the tropical Pacific Ocean, where TOGA had concentrated its efforts, to the rest of the globe. To consider both of these matters, the TOGA Panel of the National Research Council met with the Scientific Steering Group of the international TOGA program on 23–24 July 1990, in Kona, Hawaii. There, the TOGA Panel recommended that, to exploit the scientific advances made in understanding the dynamics of the coupled tropical ocean and global atmosphere system, a follow-on program to TOGA should be created to focus on global climate variability at seasonal-to-interannual time scales. Toward this end, the TOGA Panel organized a series of study

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis sessions. These covered the Asiatic monsoons, air–sea interaction in the tropical Atlantic, and the role of extratropical SST variations. On the basis of conclusions drawn from these study sessions, the TOGA Panel then proposed to the National Research Council's Climate Research Committee (CRC) that the CRC initiate a program as a follow-on to TOGA. That program, described in this volume, is called GOALS—the Global Ocean–Atmosphere–Land System program. GOALS is envisioned as supporting the new, international, 15-year program—CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Prediction program)—about to be launched by the WCRP. In response to the TOGA Panel's suggestion, the CRC formed a GOALS steering committee (David L.T. Anderson, Michael Ghil, David Halpern, Edward S. Sarachik, Jagadish Shukla, and J. Michael Wallace) to explore further the ideas presented by the TOGA Panel and to engage a broader community of scientists. This Steering Committee planned the GOALS Study Conference, which was held at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawaii, on 1–3 March 1993. (The agenda and a list of participants appear in Appendix B of this report.) Attended by 110 scientists, the conference was organized around a number of scientific questions, each of which was addressed by an invited speaker. Taking into account the presentations and discussions at the conference, the Steering Committee assisted the CRC in preparing the GOALS science plan presented here. The GOALS plan is for a 15-year (1995–2010) research program that builds on the success of TOGA. The plan calls for an expansion of observational, modeling, and process research to include the possible influences of the global upper oceans and time-varying land moisture, vegetation, snow and sea ice. We expect GOALS would be an important component of the CLIVAR program, and that it would benefit greatly from close cooperation with other research programs of the WCRP. We believe that a successful GOALS program would lay the foundation for a scientific basis for dynamical prediction of climate variations at seasonal-to-interannual time scales. For their assistance in the production of this report, we are indebted to the staff of the Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. JAGADISH SHUKLA, CHAIR GOALS STEERING COMMITTEE

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   3     El Niño/Southern Oscillation and its Importance   5     Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere Program   7 2   THE GOALS PROGRAM AND ITS SCIENTIFIC OBJECTIVES   13     The Rationale for GOALS   13     Scientific Objectives   18     Science Questions   19 3   LARGE-SCALE INTERACTIONS AMONG THE UPPER OCEAN, ATMOSPHERE, AND LAND   21     Spatial Variability   21     Tropics   21     Tropical—Extratropical Interactions   25     The Extratropics   27     Temporal Variability   28     Subseasonal Variability   28     The Annual Cycle   31     Interannual Variability   33     Decadal Variability   34

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis 4   ELEMENTS AND GROWTH OF THE PROGRAM   37     Elements of the Program   37     Program Growth   38     Modeling   38     Atmosphere—Ocean Coupling   40     Atmosphere—Land Coupling   41     Experimental Prediction   42     Observations   43     Observations Over and In the Ocean   43     Observations Over Land   45     Satellite Observations Over Land and Ocean   46     Expansions and Extensions   47     Empirical Studies   48     Process Studies   50     Consortia and Principal Investigator Groups   52 5   DATA MANAGEMENT   55     Principles and Objectives   55     Data Centers   57 6   RELATIONSHIP OF GOALS TO OTHER PROGRAMS   61     Collaborative Efforts   64     Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)   64     Global Energy and Water Cycle Experiment (GEWEX)   65     World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE)   66     Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program (ARM)   67     Atlantic Climate Change Program (ACCP)   68     Other Programs   68 7   GOALS PROGRAM MANAGEMENT   69     APPENDICES         A PRESENT STATUS OF SHORT-TERM CLIMATE PREDICTION   75     B THE 1993 GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE   83     C ACRONYMS AND OTHER INITIALS   93     References   97

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLES Figures 2-1   Schematic of major large-scale climate anomalies associated with the warm phase of the Southern Oscillation during Northern Hemisphere winter. Based on Ropelewski and Halpert (1986, 1987) and Halpert and Ropelewski (1992).     3-1   (a) Annual-mean precipitation over the tropics, after Jaeger (1976). The heavy contour encloses regions with amounts in excess of 12 cm per month; and light, intermediate, and dark shading correspond to amounts in excess of 16, 20, and 30 cm per month, respectively. (b) Annual-mean outgoing longwave radiation, for the period 1974–1991. Values below 240 Wm-2, indicated by the shading, are associated with regions of enhanced deep convective clouds.     3-2   Climatological mean sea-surface temperature (SST), surface winds, and outgoing longwave radiation (OLR) over the Indian Ocean for the months of April and July. Contour interval 1K for SST; OLR values below 240 Wm-2, indicated by the shading, are associated with regions of enhanced deep convective clouds. SST and surface winds after Sadler et al. (1987).     3-3   Time-longitude section showing the depth of the 20°C isotherm along the equator in the Pacific, based on data from the TOGA Tropical Atmosphere Ocean (TAO) array. Contour interval 20 m.     3-4   Time series of surface wind speed, insolation, and subsurface temperature at the TOGA TAO mooring on the equator at 140°W over an 11-day period. The subsurface time series are for the depths of (proceeding from top to bottom) 1, 3, 10, 17, 24, 30, 36, and 45 m.     4-1   GOALS program architecture, showing the interrelated components of the program.     4-2   Illustration of the partitioning of GOALS research among the various program elements (rows) and the various consortia and individual principal investigators (columns). Examples of hypothetical consortium themes are given in the text.     6-1   1000-year mean SST-anomaly fields for ENSO conditions from the Zebiak-Cane coupled model.     6-2   Functional relationship between GOALS and the other interannual research components of the U.S. Global Change Research Program. The GOALS program will serve as the principal focus for basic research on seasonal-to-interannual time scales. The proposed Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the pro    

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis     posed Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS) would provide observations worldwide and the proposed International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRICP) would provide experimental prediction and assessments of seasonal-to-interannual climate variations.     7-1   GOALS program management structure and its relationship to the international CLIVAR program. Shown are relationships among oversight committees, science panels, project offices, federal agencies, and groups participating in the GOALS program. Also depicted are relevant components of the CLIVAR management structure and its principal communication link to the GOALS program through the project offices (dashed line).     A-1   Observed (upper) and predicted (lower) 500-mb height-anomaly fields for the warm ENSO event of the northern winter of 1982–1983. The observations are from analysis by the ECMWF; the prediction is an average of three forecasts, made at a lead time of 6 to 8 months, by Bengtsson et al. (1993). Solid contours are associated with positive height anomalies and dashed lines show negative height anomalies.     Tables 3-1   Climatological mean precipitation (in cm) for selected stations, showing the onset of the rainy season.     4-1   Satellite data products for GOALS.