B
The 1993 GOALS Study Conference

The GOALS Study Conference was held in Hawaii on 1–3 March 1993, with about 110 participants. The conference was arranged to receive maximum inputs from the scientific community on the plans for observations, modeling, and research in the post-TOGA period. It was organized around a number of scientific questions, each of which was introduced by an invited speaker. Following the scientific presentations, the Study Conference broke into three working groups—modeling, observations, and empirical/process studies. This procedure gave all attendees an opportunity to provide input. The Study Conference agenda and list of participants follow.



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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis B The 1993 GOALS Study Conference The GOALS Study Conference was held in Hawaii on 1–3 March 1993, with about 110 participants. The conference was arranged to receive maximum inputs from the scientific community on the plans for observations, modeling, and research in the post-TOGA period. It was organized around a number of scientific questions, each of which was introduced by an invited speaker. Following the scientific presentations, the Study Conference broke into three working groups—modeling, observations, and empirical/process studies. This procedure gave all attendees an opportunity to provide input. The Study Conference agenda and list of participants follow.

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis Climate Research Committee GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE East-West Conference Center 1777 East West Road University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii March 1–3, 1993 Final Agenda Objective: To more fully define the science for GOALS and to prepare a final document reflecting the GOALS science objectives and research strategy. MONDAY, MARCH 1, 1993 Keoni Auditorium 0900 Welcome and Opening Remarks Barry Raleigh William Sprigg Jagadish Shukla Morning Session Chair: Klaus Wyrtki 0920 GOALS and Climate and Global Change in the United States Otis Brown 0940 CLIVAR Gordon McBean 1020 BREAK   1040 TOGA Mark Cane 1120 GOALS Overview Ed Sarachik 1140 LUNCH   Afternoon Session Chair: Tetsuzo Yasunari Science Questions: 1300 1. What are the structure and dynamics of the seasonal cycle of the coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system and what are the reasons for its large spatial variability over the globe? George Philander

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis 1340 2. What is the nature of the global interannual climate variability and what is its relationship to the seasonal cycle? What processes give rise to such variability? Can our understanding of this variability be exploited for prediction? Dennis Hartmann 1420 3. What is the role of the slowly varying global boundary conditions at the earth's surface (SST, sea ice, snow cover and land moisture) in determining the nature of the interannual variability of the global atmosphere? Jagadish Shukla 1500 BREAK   1520 4. What determines low-level convergence of moisture in the tropics over water, land, and land in the proximity to water? In other words, what determines the location of the thermal sources? Edwin Schneider 1600 5. What is the nature of tropical-extratropical interactions? In particular, what is the role of tropical SST anomalies in perturbing the extratropical atmosphere, and in generating extratropical SST anomalies through the atmosphere? For what regions of the globe can accurate predictions of tropical SST anomalies be translated into skillful regional climate forecasts one or more seasons in advance? Gabriel Lau 1640 RECESS   1730 to 1930 RECEPTION at the East-West Center Lanai, hosted by JIMAR  

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis TUESDAY, MARCH 2, 1993 Keoni Auditorium Morning Session Chair: Gordon McBean 0830 6. What improvements in coupled ocean-land-atmosphere models, convection, mixing and in particular the processes that determine the coupling of the atmosphere and ocean are needed for seasonal to interannual predictions? Carlos Mechoso 0910 7. Are there interactions between interannual and interdecadal variability? If so, what is the nature of these interactions? Are there similar or different mechanisms at work on these two time scales? Michael Ghil 0950 BREAK   1010 8. What is the role of high frequency fluctuations in the tropics and mid-latitudes in seasonal to interannual climate variability and predictability? Roger Lukas 1050 9. What measurements of the global upper ocean and land surface are required to initialize the coupled models of the global ocean–atmosphere–land system for prediction of seasonal and interannual variability? Ants Leetmaa/Gordon Bonan 1130 LUNCH   1300 Short Presentations, Open Discussion, and Charge to Working Groups—J. Shukla, Discussion Leader Speakers: —Kikuro Miyakoda —Peter Webster —Antonio Moura  

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis 1400 Working Group Meetings 1. Observations—David Halpern, Chair 2. Empirical Studies—Mike Wallace, Chair 3. Modeling—David Anderson and Edward Sarachik, Co-Chairs 1500 BREAK 1520 Resume Working Group Meetings in previously assigned breakout rooms 1630 Plenary Session—Keoni Auditorium Reports from Working Group Chairs 1700 RECESS WEDNESDAY, MARCH 3, 1993 0830 Plenary Session—Keoni Auditorium 0900 Working Group Meetings in previously assigned breakout rooms 1200 LUNCH 1300 Working Group Meetings, continued 1400 All Participants return to Keoni Auditorium 1400 Plenary Discussion Reports from Working Group Chairs 1500 BREAK 1520 1600 Closing Remarks —Michael Ghil, Climate Research Committee —Jagadish Shukla, Conference Chair 1630 ADJOURN

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis PARTICIPANTS GOALS STUDY CONFERENCE MARCH 1–3, 1993 Jon E. Ahlquist, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida David L.T. Anderson, Oxford University, Oxford, United Kingdom Richard T. Barber, Duke University Marine Laboratories, Beaufort, North Carolina Tim Barnett, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California David S. Battisti, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Kenneth H. Bergman, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington, D.C. Fred Bingham, University of Hawaii, Honolulu, Hawaii Maurice L. Blackmon, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado Donna Blake, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. Gordon B. Bonan, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Byron Boville, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Otis Brown, University of Miami, Miami, Florida Antonio J. Busalacchi, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, MD Mark Cane, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York George F. Carrier, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts James Carton, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland Ping Chang, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas William E. Clements, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico Michael Coughlan, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland David B. Enfield, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, Florida Steven K. Esbensen, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon David L. Evans, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C. Jay S. Fein, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. Rana A. Fine, University of Miami, Miami, Florida Pierre Flament, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Silvia L. Garzoli, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. W. Lawrence Gates, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, California Michael Ghil, University of California, Los Angeles, California

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis David Goodrich, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland Nick Graham, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California David Gutzler, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder, Colorado Peter Hacker, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii J. Michael Hall, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland David Halpern, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California Dennis L. Hartmann, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Stefan Hastenrath, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin Rui Xin Huang, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institute, Woods Hole, Massachusetts Eric Itsweire, National Science Foundation, Washington, D.C. Fei Fei Jin, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Thomas R. Karl, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Asheville, North Carolina Eli J. Katz, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York Masahide Kimoto, Meteorological Research Institute, Ibaraki, Japan Robert A. Knox, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California Tiruvalam N. Krishnamurti, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida Mojib Latif, Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany Alexis Lau, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Ngar-Cheung Gabriel Lau, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey William K-M Lau, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland Ants Leetmaa, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs, Maryland Marlon R. Lewis, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada Roger B. Lukas, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Douglas S. Luther, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California Jerry D. Mahlman, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, New Jersey John Marsh, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Douglas G. Martinson, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis Gordon A. McBean, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada Julian P. McCreary, Nova University Oceanographic Center, Dania, Florida Michael J. McPhaden, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, Washington James C. McWilliams, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Carlos Mechoso, University of California, Los Angeles, California Kukuro Miyakoda, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Robert L. Molinari, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Miami, Florida Kenneth Mooney, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland Dennis W. Moore, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Antonio D. Moura, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland J. David Neelin, University of California, Los Angeles, California Peter Niiler, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California James J. O'Brien, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida Donald B. Olson, University of Miami, Miami, Florida Michael Patterson, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland John S. Perry, National Research Council, Washington, D.C. S. George Philander, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Joel Picaut, ORSTOM, Noumea, New Caledonia Stephen D. Piotrowicz, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland James F. Price, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts C. Barry Raleigh, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Eugene M. Rasmusson, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland Richard W. Reynolds, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs, Maryland Jeffery C. Rogers, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio Chester F. Ropelewski, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Washington, D.C. Lewis Rothstein, University of Rhode Island, Narragansett, Rhode Island Barry Saltzman, Yale University, New Haven, Connecticut Edward S. Sarachik, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis Prashant D. Sardeshmukh, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado Karyn Sawyer, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Edwin K. Schneider, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland Paul Schopf, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland Richard Seager, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York Albert Semtner, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California Eileen L. Shea, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Silver Spring, Maryland Jagadish Shukla, University of Maryland, College Park, Maryland Pedro L. Silva-Dias, University of Sao Paulo, Sao Paulo, Brazil Soroosh Sorooshian, University of Arizona, Tucson, Arizona William A. Sprigg, National Research Council, Washington, D.C. Duane Stevens, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Max J. Suarez, National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Greenbelt, Maryland Kevin Trenberth, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado Richard P. Turco, University of California, Los Angeles, California Sophie Wacongne, Laboratoire de Physique des Oceans, Brest Cedex, France Duane E. Waliser, University of California, Los Angeles, California John Michael Wallace, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Bin Wang, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Peter J. Webster, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado Robert H. Weisberg, University of South Florida, St. Petersburg, Florida Klaus Wyrtki, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Jiayan Yang, University of California, Los Angeles, California Tetsuzo Yasunari, University of Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan Stephen E. Zebiak, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, New York Chidong Zhang, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington

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GOALS Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System for Predicting Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate: A Program of Observation, Modeling, and Analysis This page in the original is blank.