Appendix B
Correcting the Fertility Estimates in the 1988 Census

The 1988 census [18] questionnaire contained a single question to women about their births in the last 12 months. Unfortunately, because of mistakes in coding and processing, these data were not published in official census publications, and to this day, fertility estimates from the 1988 census remain unpublished. In an attempt to resolve this problem, members of the working group traveled to Senegal to work for a week on a team with officials from the Government of Senegal's Directorate of Statistics. The team analyzed the programs used to construct the fertility rates and reviewed the program used to clean the data before the final data analysis began. The Directorate of Statistics also made available to the team the raw data for a 10-percent sample in one department (Fatick) so that it could be carefully scrutinized.

The team identified the major problem to be that blank entries in the coded data were subject to two interpretations: blanks could signify either that there were no data for the women or that the women had not had a birth in the last 12 months. On closer examination, the team found that:

  • Boys and girls had been coded separately on the 1988 census data file. If either the number of boys or the number of girls was recorded as a blank on the data file, the program calculating the fertility rates excluded the birth(s) of the other sex.

  • If both entries were blank, the responses were treated as 0,0 (i.e., no boys, no girls).



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Population Dynamics of Senegal Appendix B Correcting the Fertility Estimates in the 1988 Census The 1988 census [18] questionnaire contained a single question to women about their births in the last 12 months. Unfortunately, because of mistakes in coding and processing, these data were not published in official census publications, and to this day, fertility estimates from the 1988 census remain unpublished. In an attempt to resolve this problem, members of the working group traveled to Senegal to work for a week on a team with officials from the Government of Senegal's Directorate of Statistics. The team analyzed the programs used to construct the fertility rates and reviewed the program used to clean the data before the final data analysis began. The Directorate of Statistics also made available to the team the raw data for a 10-percent sample in one department (Fatick) so that it could be carefully scrutinized. The team identified the major problem to be that blank entries in the coded data were subject to two interpretations: blanks could signify either that there were no data for the women or that the women had not had a birth in the last 12 months. On closer examination, the team found that: Boys and girls had been coded separately on the 1988 census data file. If either the number of boys or the number of girls was recorded as a blank on the data file, the program calculating the fertility rates excluded the birth(s) of the other sex. If both entries were blank, the responses were treated as 0,0 (i.e., no boys, no girls).

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Population Dynamics of Senegal The team used the 10 percent sample of Fatick to examine the importance of these findings for the fertility rates. They discovered that although the interviewers were supposed to have recorded the number of boys and girls born to all women in the 12 months before the census, the responses were missing for many women. Missing data were coded as two blank entries. There were also a considerable number of cases where one column contained data and the other was blank. Furthermore, the distribution of blank entries varied by the age of the women (with older and younger women having higher-than-average levels), but there seemed to be an underlying level of blank entries across all ages. Based on this analysis, the age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) were then reestimated using two methods: (1) assuming none of the blanks were missing births, and (2) assuming all of the blanks were missing births. At the national level, the interpretation of the blank entries altered the estimate of the total fertility rate (TFR) by approximately 0.3 of a birth. Although the difference in ASFRs between the two methods was not large, it confirmed the team's earlier finding that there was a distinct pattern to the blanks in the coded data. Subsequently, the ASFRs for each department were adjusted by the smallest ratio of [ASFR(ALL)/ASFR(NONE)], which was taken as the best estimate of the underlying level of nonresponse π in that department. Hence, the best estimate of the ASFRs in each region became: Adjusted ASFR = π * ASFR (NONE) These adjusted ASFRs are provided in Tables B-1 through B-11. TABLE B-1 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, National, 1988 Census   Place of Residence Age Group Urban Rural Total 10-14 0.005 0.016 0.012 15-19 0.075 0.193 0.142 20-24 0.203 0.295 0.254 25-29 0.253 0.288 0.274 30-34 0.242 0.244 0.243 35-39 0.182 0.153 0.164 40-44 0.083 0.074 0.078 45-49 0.024 0.028 0.026 50-54 0.009 0.013 0.012

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-2 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Dakar, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Dakar Pikine Rufisque Region Total         10-14 0.003 0.006 0.005 0.004 15-19 0.048 0.086 0.068 0.063 20-24 0.147 0.233 0.206 0.182 25-29 0.202 0.284 0.278 0.238 30-34 0.206 0.264 0.259 0.236 35-39 0.161 0.200 0.205 0.179 40-44 0.078 0.094 0.117 0.088 45-49 0.021 0.025 0.024 0.023 50-54 0.006 0.013 0.005 0.009 Urban         10-14 0.003 0.006 0.004 0.004 15-19 0.048 0.086 0.049 0.063 20-24 0.147 0.233 0.178 0.184 25-29 0.202 0.284 0.252 0.241 30-34 0.206 0.264 0.248 0.235 35-39 0.161 0.200 0.207 0.182 40-44 0.078 0.094 0.107 0.088 45-49 0.021 0.025 0.024 0.023 50-54 0.006 0.013 0.004 0.009 Rural         10-14 — — 0.007 0.007 15-19 — — 0.125 0.125 20-24 — — 0.285 0.284 25-29 — — 0.344 0.343 30-34 — — 0.286 0.286 35-39 — — 0.199 0.198 40-44 — — 0.142 0.142 45-49 — — 0.026 0.026 50-54 — — 0.008 0.008 NOTE: —, not applicable

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-3 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Diourbel, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Bambey Diourbel Mbacké Region Total         10-14 0.015 0.015 0.013 0.014 15-19 0.159 0.150 0.147 0.152 20-24 0.263 0.268 0.259 0.263 25-29 0.270 0.281 0.265 0.271 30-34 0.218 0.231 0.231 0.227 35-39 0.127 0.141 0.136 0.135 40-44 0.054 0.060 0.057 0.057 45-49 0.025 0.025 0.025 0.025 50-54 0.020 0.006 0.012 0.013 Urban         10-14 0.010 0.009 0.006 0.008 15-19 0.084 0.098 0.102 0.098 20-24 0.216 0.218 0.222 0.220 25-29 0.288 0.249 0.257 0.257 30-34 0.249 0.236 0.240 0.240 35-39 0.198 0.162 0.131 0.156 40-44 0.087 0.073 0.065 0.072 45-49 0.011 0.019 0.028 0.021 50-54 0.013 0.008 0.008 0.009 Rural         10-14 0.016 0.020 0.014 0.016 15-19 0.166 0.191 0.156 0.167 20-24 0.266 0.306 0.266 0.274 25-29 0.268 0.301 0.266 0.274 30-34 0.214 0.228 0.228 0.223 35-39 0.120 0.126 0.138 0.129 40-44 0.050 0.051 0.056 0.053 45-49 0.026 0.029 0.024 0.026 50-54 0.021 0.005 0.013 0.014

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-4 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Fatick, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Fatick Foundiougne Gossas Region Total         10-14 0.006 0.013 0.010 0.009 15-19 0.181 0.192 0.164 0.179 20-24 0.336 0.321 0.301 0.320 25-29 0.330 0.323 0.302 0.319 30-34 0.283 0.274 0.257 0.272 35-39 0.212 0.172 0.181 0.191 40-44 0.081 0.074 0.067 0.075 45-49 0.034 0.022 0.029 0.030 50-54 0.012 0.010 0.012 0.011 Urban         10-14 0.001 0.004 0.007 0.004 15-19 0.063 0.086 0.122 0.091 20-24 0.277 0.281 0.258 0.271 25-29 0.304 0.302 0.290 0.299 30-34 0.262 0.287 0.271 0.272 35-39 0.211 0.208 0.209 0.210 40-44 0.062 0.078 0.047 0.059 45-49 0.030 0.006 0.023 0.023 50-54 0.017 0.007 0.007 0.011 Rural         10-14 0.006 0.014 0.010 0.010 15-19 0.201 0.203 0.172 0.192 20-24 0.344 0.324 0.308 0.327 25-29 0.333 0.325 0.304 0.321 30-34 0.285 0.273 0.254 0.272 35-39 0.212 0.168 0.176 0.189 40-44 0.083 0.073 0.070 0.077 45-49 0.035 0.024 0.031 0.031 50-54 0.012 0.010 0.012 0.012

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-5 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Kaolack, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Kaffrine Kaolack Nioro du Rip Region Total         10-14 0.022 0.013 0.028 0.020 15-19 0.212 0.141 0.246 0.194 20-24 0.294 0.246 0.331 0.285 25-29 0.280 0.264 0.314 0.283 30-34 0.223 0.221 0.245 0.227 35-39 0.131 0.154 0.142 0.142 40-44 0.062 0.059 0.065 0.062 45-49 0.024 0.023 0.021 0.023 50-54 0.013 0.012 0.014 0.013 Urban         10-14 0.018 0.007 0.001 0.008 15-19 0.139 0.083 0.095 0.089 20-24 0.281 0.202 0.271 0.212 25-29 0.236 0.249 0.253 0.248 30-34 0.230 0.212 0.222 0.215 35-39 0.113 0.169 0.172 0.163 40-44 0.040 0.062 0.084 0.062 45-49 0.020 0.025 0.030 0.025 50-54 0.005 0.013 0.006 0.011 Rural         10-14 0.023 0.020 0.030 0.024 15-19 0.216 0.212 0.255 0.227 20-24 0.295 0.305 0.335 0.308 25-29 0.282 0.280 0.317 0.292 30-34 0.223 0.231 0.246 0.231 35-39 0.133 0.136 0.140 0.136 40-44 0.063 0.056 0.063 0.061 45-49 0.024 0.021 0.021 0.023 50-54 0.013 0.011 0.015 0.013

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-6 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Kolda, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Kolda Sédhiou Vélingara Region Total         10-14 0.021 0.019 0.024 0.020 15-19 0.237 0.226 0.245 0.234 20-24 0.318 0.302 0.306 0.309 25-29 0.283 0.270 0.283 0.278 30-34 0.221 0.218 0.225 0.221 35-39 0.135 0.132 0.131 0.133 40-44 0.066 0.066 0.061 0.065 45-49 0.024 0.029 0.024 0.027 50-54 0.016 0.011 0.008 0.012 Urban         10-14 0.015 0.008 0.006 0.012 15-19 0.151 0.096 0.204 0.151 20-24 0.287 0.320 0.302 0.298 25-29 0.300 0.293 0.322 0.305 30-34 0.251 0.231 0.260 0.250 35-39 0.168 0.186 0.158 0.171 40-44 0.060 0.103 0.078 0.073 45-49 0.022 0.06 0.021 0.030 50-54 0.018 0.007 0.006 0.013 Rural         10-14 0.023 0.019 0.026 0.022 15-19 0.256 0.232 0.250 0.243 20-24 0.325 0.301 0.306 0.310 25-29 0.280 0.269 0.279 0.275 30-34 0.213 0.217 0.220 0.217 35-39 0.127 0.129 0.128 0.128 40-44 0.068 0.064 0.059 0.064 45-49 0.024 0.028 0.024 0.026 50-54 0.016 0.011 0.009 0.012

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-7 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Louga, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Kébémer Linguère Louga Region Total         10-14 0.013 0.018 0.012 0.014 15-19 0.155 0.196 0.133 0.157 20-24 0.259 0.275 0.254 0.261 25-29 0.251 0.278 0.278 0.269 30-34 0.203 0.241 0.259 0.235 35-39 0.107 0.141 0.157 0.136 40-44 0.053 0.071 0.071 0.065 45-49 0.018 0.023 0.023 0.022 50-54 0.009 0.015 0.016 0.013 Urban         10-14 0.002 0.004 0.006 0.005 15-19 0.065 0.107 0.078 0.080 20-24 0.204 0.238 0.218 0.220 25-29 0.259 0.285 0.289 0.285 30-34 0.213 0.265 0.282 0.271 35-39 0.138 0.178 0.201 0.190 40-44 0.053 0.074 0.086 0.080 45-49 0.007 0.021 0.025 0.022 50-54 0.000 0.007 0.012 0.010 Rural         10-14 0.015 0.019 0.015 0.016 15-19 0.162 0.204 0.155 0.172 20-24 0.263 0.278 0.270 0.270 25-29 0.251 0.277 0.274 0.266 30-34 0.202 0.238 0.247 0.228 35-39 0.106 0.138 0.141 0.127 40-44 0.053 0.070 0.065 0.062 45-49 0.019 0.023 0.023 0.021 50-54 0.010 0.016 0.017 0.014

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-8 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Saint-Louis, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Dagana Matam Podor Region Total         10-14 0.007 0.012 0.014 0.011 15-19 0.112 0.144 0.163 0.136 20-24 0.245 0.257 0.277 0.256 25-29 0.284 0.273 0.293 0.282 30-34 0.270 0.237 0.263 0.258 35-39 0.209 0.149 0.197 0.184 40-44 0.107 0.079 0.091 0.093 45-49 0.029 0.030 0.032 0.030 50-54 0.009 0.014 0.013 0.011 Urban         10-14 0.003 0.003 0.002 0.003 15-19 0.071 0.084 0.074 0.072 20-24 0.230 0.237 0.208 0.230 25-29 0.277 0.226 0.208 0.272 30-34 0.269 0.209 0.220 0.264 35-39 0.217 0.131 0.216 0.212 40-44 0.106 0.042 0.099 0.101 45-49 0.023 0.023 0.032 0.024 50-54 0.008 0.000 0.017 0.008 Rural         10-14 0.013 0.013 0.015 0.014 15-19 0.167 0.146 0.168 0.158 20-24 0.268 0.258 0.281 0.268 25-29 0.292 0.275 0.297 0.286 30-34 0.272 0.238 0.264 0.255 35-39 0.199 0.150 0.196 0.176 40-44 0.109 0.080 0.090 0.090 45-49 0.034 0.030 0.032 0.032 50-54 0.009 0.014 0.012 0.012

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-9 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Tambacounda, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Bakel Kédougou Tambacounda Region Total         10-14 0.023 0.014 0.025 0.022 15-19 0.202 0.197 0.229 0.215 20-24 0.278 0.252 0.296 0.282 25-29 0.260 0.226 0.275 0.261 30-34 0.230 0.149 0.234 0.215 35-39 0.151 0.108 0.125 0.129 40-44 0.071 0.044 0.055 0.058 45-49 0.031 0.015 0.027 0.026 50-54 0.015 0.012 0.014 0.014 Urban         10-14 0.002 0.003 0.010 0.008 15-19 0.144 0.139 0.154 0.151 20-24 0.264 0.241 0.283 0.273 25-29 0.240 0.254 0.302 0.287 30-34 0.300 0.174 0.285 0.267 35-39 0.141 0.131 0.150 0.145 40-44 0.084 0.076 0.071 0.075 45-49 0.020 0.015 0.016 0.017 50-54 0.000 0.009 0.020 0.014 Rural         10-14 0.024 0.017 0.029 0.025 15-19 0.206 0.207 0.248 0.226 20-24 0.279 0.254 0.300 0.284 25-29 0.261 0.222 0.269 0.257 30-34 0.224 0.145 0.219 0.205 35-39 0.152 0.104 0.119 0.127 40-44 0.069 0.036 0.050 0.054 45-49 0.032 0.015 0.030 0.027 50-54 0.016 0.013 0.012 0.014

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-10 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Thiès, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Mbour Thiès Tivaouane Region Total         10-14 0.008 0.007 0.009 0.008 15-19 0.123 0.097 0.141 0.118 20-24 0.287 0.235 0.274 0.261 25-29 0.308 0.279 0.288 0.290 30-34 0.285 0.264 0.261 0.269 35-39 0.199 0.195 0.163 0.186 40-44 0.099 0.095 0.078 0.091 45-49 0.031 0.024 0.027 0.027 50-54 0.009 0.009 0.011 0.010 Urban         10-14 0.006 0.003 0.004 0.004 15-19 0.086 0.062 0.061 0.069 20-24 0.247 0.195 0.214 0.212 25-29 0.289 0.245 0.253 0.260 30-34 0.271 0.249 0.271 0.259 35-39 0.199 0.187 0.188 0.191 40-44 0.092 0.093 0.076 0.091 45-49 0.030 0.023 0.025 0.026 50-54 0.008 0.007 0.012 0.008 Rural         10-14 0.009 0.011 0.011 0.010 15-19 0.148 0.148 0.156 0.152 20-24 0.311 0.288 0.284 0.293 25-29 0.319 0.314 0.293 0.306 30-34 0.292 0.281 0.259 0.275 35-39 0.198 0.202 0.159 0.183 40-44 0.102 0.098 0.078 0.091 45-49 0.031 0.025 0.028 0.028 50-54 0.009 0.012 0.011 0.011

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Population Dynamics of Senegal TABLE B-11 Age-Specific Fertility Rates, Ziguinchor, 1988 Census   Department Age Group Bignona Oussouye Ziguinchor Region Total         10-14 0.010 0.008 0.008 0.009 15-19 0.183 0.157 0.128 0.152 20-24 0.328 0.355 0.270 0.300 25-29 0.307 0.354 0.309 0.312 30-34 0.286 0.288 0.269 0.278 35-39 0.185 0.221 0.185 0.188 40-44 0.104 0.101 0.080 0.093 45-49 0.042 0.040 0.032 0.038 50-54 0.022 0.011 0.014 0.018 Urban         10-14 0.005 0.004 0.007 0.007 15-19 0.108 0.058 0.117 0.109 20-24 0.245 0.403 0.261 0.249 25-29 0.247 0.307 0.302 0.281 30-34 0.211 0.237 0.269 0.248 35-39 0.148 0.184 0.187 0.172 40-44 0.083 0.039 0.067 0.066 45-49 0.026 0.000 0.031 0.028 50-54 0.007 0.000 0.012 0.010 Rural         10-14 0.011 0.009 0.012 0.011 15-19 0.200 0.180 0.197 0.198 20-24 0.343 0.347 0.351 0.346 25-29 0.316 0.361 0.372 0.335 30-34 0.299 0.295 0.308 0.301 35-39 0.190 0.225 0.204 0.198 40-44 0.107 0.107 0.121 0.110 45-49 0.044 0.044 0.038 0.042 50-54 0.023 0.012 0.018 0.021