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Introduction

Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced rapid demographic changes over the course of the past several decades, the most notable being a decline in mortality. Fertility has also begun to decline in some areas. Where these changes have taken place, they have not occurred simultaneously throughout the continent. In contrast with southern and eastern Africa, the decline in mortality in western Africa has been relatively late and the decline in fertility, until recently, nonexistent.

Against this background, the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa selected two countries, Kenya and Senegal, as case studies to try to shed light on the determinants of the demographic transition under way in Africa. Kenya was selected primarily because it was clear that demographic changes were taking place there, and because the country's social and economic development exceeded that of other countries in the region (see Working Group on Kenya, 1993).

This study on the population dynamics of Senegal was chosen for two key reasons. First, it seemed to provide an interesting contrast to the case study of Kenya. Demographic changes were not as apparent in Senegal as in Kenya, and there did not seem to be much economic and social development in Senegal. In addition, Senegal and Kenya are geographically and linguistically distinct; Senegal is a francophone country in western Africa, while Kenya is an anglophone country in eastern Africa. Second, Senegal has an abundance of available national-and local-level data, not all of



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Population Dynamics of Senegal 1 Introduction Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced rapid demographic changes over the course of the past several decades, the most notable being a decline in mortality. Fertility has also begun to decline in some areas. Where these changes have taken place, they have not occurred simultaneously throughout the continent. In contrast with southern and eastern Africa, the decline in mortality in western Africa has been relatively late and the decline in fertility, until recently, nonexistent. Against this background, the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa selected two countries, Kenya and Senegal, as case studies to try to shed light on the determinants of the demographic transition under way in Africa. Kenya was selected primarily because it was clear that demographic changes were taking place there, and because the country's social and economic development exceeded that of other countries in the region (see Working Group on Kenya, 1993). This study on the population dynamics of Senegal was chosen for two key reasons. First, it seemed to provide an interesting contrast to the case study of Kenya. Demographic changes were not as apparent in Senegal as in Kenya, and there did not seem to be much economic and social development in Senegal. In addition, Senegal and Kenya are geographically and linguistically distinct; Senegal is a francophone country in western Africa, while Kenya is an anglophone country in eastern Africa. Second, Senegal has an abundance of available national-and local-level data, not all of

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Population Dynamics of Senegal which had been analyzed. These available data have made it possible and rewarding to undertake an in-depth demographic study of the country. This report describes the demographic situation in Senegal, focusing in particular on fertility and mortality and the socioeconomic factors associated with the levels and trends of these demographic phenomena. It is both a review of earlier research of demographic topics in Senegal and a presentation of original analysis from recent data. It attempts to trace long-term demographic trends in Senegal and to look in detail at the present and very recent past. It presents demographic levels and trends for the whole country, as well as at the department and regional levels, and examines whether the geographic variations in demographic phenomena are linked with differences in socioeconomic characteristics. The report is based primarily on existing data sets, including several major national demographic surveys conducted in Senegal (the Demographic Survey in 1960-1961, the National Demographic Survey in 1970-1971, the World Fertility Survey in 1978, the Demographic and Health Surveys in 1986 [DHS-I] and in 1992-1993 [DHS-II]), and the two Senegal censuses in 1976 and 1988. The report also relies heavily on various smaller-scale studies, including longitudinal studies in the rural areas of Bandafassi, Niakhar/Ngayokhème, and Mlomp, which provide high-quality data over long periods of time for these areas. Throughout the report, the various surveys are referenced with bracketed numbers ([1], [2], [3], etc.) that correspond to the listing in Appendix A, which describes and provides the reference information for each survey. The report is organized as follows: Chapter 2 presents a brief summary of Senegal's geography and socioeconomic history and of the geographic variations in socioeconomic characteristics at the departmental and regional levels. Chapter 3 presents the country's general demographic trends. Chapter 4 examines the levels, trends, and proximate determinants of fertility in Senegal and describes the nuptiality patterns and their changes that are likely to be responsible for a portion of the observed changes in fertility. This chapter also explores the geographic variations in fertility and its determinants and their relationships to differing socioeconomic characteristics. Chapter 5 presents levels and trends in child and adult mortality, examines the health policies and programs that are likely to have affected mortality, explores geographic variations in child mortality, and attempts to relate these variations to differences in socioeconomic characteristics and public-sector service provision. Chapter 6 offers some conclusions and attempts to place the demographic transition in Senegal in the wider African context.