POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
DEMOGRAPHIC EFFECTS OF ECONOMIC REVERSALS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
EFFECTS OF HEALTH PROGRAMS ON CHILD MORTALITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
FACTORS AFFECTING CONTRACEPTIVE USE IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
POPULATION DYNAMICS OF KENYA
POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SENEGAL
SOCIAL DYNAMICS OF ADOLESCENT FERTILITY IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
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WORKING GROUP ON SENEGAL
GILLES PISON (Chair),
Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, Paris, France
ANOUCH CHAHNAZARIAN,†
Johns Hopkins University and Institute Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le Développement en Coopération (ORSTOM), Dakar, Senegal
PHILIPPE HUGON,
Université de Paris X, Paris, France
CHEIKH MBACKE,
Rockefeller Foundation, Nairobi, Kenya
AWA THIONGANE,
Direction de la Prévision et de la Statistique, Dakar, Senegal
BARNEY COHEN, Staff Officer
PATRICIA A. DeFRISCO, Senior Project Assistant
KAREN A. FOOTE, Staff Officer
JOAN MONTGOMERY HALFORD, Senior Project Assistant*
PAULA J. MELVILLE, Senior Project Assistant**
SUSAN L. SHUTTLEWORTH, Senior Project Assistant***
PANEL ON THE POPULATION DYNAMICS OF SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
KENNETH H. HILL (Chair),
Department of Population Dynamics, Johns Hopkins University
ADERANTI ADEPOJU,
Institut de Développement Economique et de la Planification (IDEP), Dakar, Senegal
JANE T. BERTRAND,
School of Public Health and Tropical Medicine, Tulane University
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,
Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University
WILLIAM BRASS,
Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, England
DOUGLAS C. EWBANK,
Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania
PHILIPPE FARGUES,
Centre d'Etudes et de Documentation Economique, Sociale et Juridique (CEDEJ), Cairo, Egypt
RON J. LESTHAEGHE,
Faculteit van de Economische, Sociale en Politieke Wetenschappen, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Belgium
PATRICK O. OHADIKE,
Regional Institute for Population Studies (RIPS), Accra, Ghana
ANNE R. PEBLEY, RAND,
Santa Monica, California
DANIEL M. SALA-DIAKANDA,
Economic Commission for Africa, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
COMMITTEE ON POPULATION
RONALD D. LEE (Chair),
Department of Demography, University of California, Berkeley
CAROLINE H. BLEDSOE,
Department of Anthropology, Northwestern University
JOSE-LUIS BOBADILLA,
World Bank, Washington, D.C.
JOHN BONGAARTS,
The Population Council, New York
JOHN B. CASTERLINE,
The Population Council, New York
LINDA G. MARTIN, RAND,
Santa Monica, California
MARK R. MONTGOMERY,
The Population Council, New York
ROBERT A. MOFFITT,
Department of Economics, Brown University
ANNE R. PEBLEY, RAND,
Santa Monica, California
RONALD R. RINDFUSS,
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
JAMES P. SMITH, RAND,
Santa Monica, California
BETH J. SOLDO,
Department of Demography, Georgetown University
MARTA TIENDA,
Population Research Center, University of Chicago
AMY O. TSUI,
Carolina Population Center, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill
JOHN G. HAAGA, Director
BARNEY COHEN, Research Associate
PATRICIA A. DeFRISCO, Senior Project Assistant
KAREN A. FOOTE, Program Officer
JOEL A. ROSENQUIST, Project Assistant
JOYCE E. WALZ, Administrative Associate
This report is dedicated to the memory of Anouch Chahnazarian, Ph.D., who died on December 26, 1993, at the tragically early age of 40, cutting short a distinguished career. Dr. Chahnazarian was an active member of the Working Group on Senegal until her final illness. Her enthusiasm, energy, and intellectual rigor combined to make an enormous contribution to the preparation of this report.
Dr. Chahnazarian grew up in Belgium, obtaining a B.A. in social sciences from the Free University of Brussels and a master's degree in demography from the Catholic University of Louvain. She then came to the United States to pursue her graduate training, obtaining a Ph.D. in sociology/demography from Princeton University in 1986.
From Princeton, Dr. Chahnazarian joined the Department of Population Dynamics at The Johns Hopkins University, first as a research associate, and then in 1988, as an assistant professor. Her initial work at Johns Hopkins consisted largely of responsibility for all aspects of a child health survey in Haiti, but on joining the faculty, she took on teaching responsibilities and acquired a devoted group of doctoral advisees. While at Princeton, she had been involved in a child mortality study in Zaire, and she returned there in 1989 to design and conduct a follow-up survey of the same area. Her lifelong interest in Africa, where she had lived as a child, led her to take a leave of absence from Johns Hopkins in 1991 to join the Institut Français de Recherche Scientifique pour le Développement en Coopération (ORSTOM), working as the demographer for the population observatory in Niakhar, Senegal. She concentrated her work on systematizing the data collection, processing, and analysis procedures for the observatory, to provide a sound basis for future use of the data for research purposes. Tragically, she was unable herself to take advantage of the important improvements she introduced. She was taken ill in March 1993.
Dr. Chahnazarian's contribution to this report, both intellectual and inspirational, was enormous. She is sorely missed by her colleagues and friends on this working group, the Panel on Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa, the Committee on Population, and throughout the demographic community.
Preface
This report is last in a series of studies carried out under the auspices of the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa of the National Research Council's Committee on Population that were initiated during my term as chair. The National Research Council has a long history of examining population issues in developing countries. In 1971 it issued the report Rapid Population Growth: Consequences and Policy Implications. In 1977, the predecessor Committee on Population and Demography began a major study of levels and trends of fertility and mortality in the developing world that resulted in 13 country reports and 6 reports on demographic methods. Then, in the early 1980s, that committee undertook a study of the determinants of fertility in the developing world, which resulted in 10 reports. In the mid-and late 1980s, the Committee on Population assessed the economic consequences of population growth and the health consequences of contraceptive use and controlled fertility, among many other activities.
No publication on the demography of sub-Saharan Africa emerged from the early work of the committee, largely because of the paucity of data and the poor quality of what was available. However, censuses, ethnographic studies, and surveys of recent years, such as those under the auspices of the World Fertility Survey and the Demographic and Health Survey programs, have made available data on the demography of sub-Saharan Africa. The data collection has no doubt been stimulated by the increasing interest of both scholars and policy-makers in the demographic development of Africa
and the relations between demographic change and socioeconomic developments. In response to this interest, the Committee on Population held a meeting in 1989 to ascertain the feasibility and desirability of a major study of the demography of Africa, and decided to form the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa.
The panel, which is chaired by Kenneth Hill and includes members from Africa, Europe, and the United States, met for the first time in February 1990 in Washington, D.C. At that meeting, the panel decided to set up six working groups, composed of its own members and other experts on the demography of Africa, to carry out specific studies. Four working groups focused on cross-national studies of substantive issues: the social dynamics of adolescent fertility, factors affecting contraceptive use, the effects on mortality of child survival and general health programs, and the demographic effects of economic reversals. The two other working groups were charged with in-depth studies of Kenya and Senegal, with the objective of studying linkages among demographic variables and between those variables and socioeconomic changes. The panel also decided to publish a volume of papers reviewing broad topics across sub-Saharan Africa: levels and trends of fertility; the proximate determinants of fertility, nuptiality, child mortality, adult mortality, internal migration, and international migration; and the demographic consequences of the AIDS epidemic.
This report, one of the two in-depth country studies, analyzes the population dynamics of Senegal. Senegal was chosen for two key reasons. First, it provided an interesting comparison with the case study on Kenya: in contrast with Kenya, demographic changes have not been apparent in Senegal. Second, Senegal has an abundance of national-and local-level data, not all of which had previously been analyzed.
This report is the result of the joint efforts of the working group members and staff and represents a consensus of the members' views on the issues addressed. The Committee on Population and the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa appreciate the time and energy devoted by all the working group members to the study. Gilles Pison wrote the first drafts of Chapter 1 and the child mortality portion of Chapter 5; Ken Hill wrote the first draft of the adult mortality section in Chapter 5; Philippe Hugon wrote the first draft of Chapter 2; Karen Foote, Philippe Hugon, and Awa Thiongane wrote the first draft of Chapter 3; and Anouch Chahnazarian and Barney Cohen wrote the first draft of Chapter 4. As noted above, however, this report represents the views of the working group as a whole, and considerable effort by all the members and staff went into the refinement of the early drafts.
The working group would like to acknowledge the help of the Statistical Division of the government of Senegal in releasing tables and data from the 1988 census. In addition, Papa Thiécouta Ndiaye, Ibrahim Sarr, and
Boubacar Sow worked with members of the working group in analyzing the 1988 census data on fertility. We would also like to thank Emmanuel Lagarde, Nathalie Paquet, and Ely Sene for their valuable research assistance, and Barbara McKinney for writing a valuable background paper on fertility in Senegal. Most specially, we wish to express our sincere appreciation to Anouch's colleagues who were very supportive of Anouch's efforts on this working group both before and during her illness.
As is the case for all of the panel's work, this report would not have been possible without the cooperation and assistance of the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) Program of Macro International, Inc. We are grateful to the DHS staff for responding to our inquiries and facilitating our early access to the survey data.
We are also most grateful to the organizations that provided financial support for the work of the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa: the Office of Population and the Africa Bureau of the Agency for International Development, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, and the Rockefeller Foundation. Besides the funding provided, the representatives of these organizations were a source of information and advice in the development of the panel's overall work plan.
Special thanks are also due to Paul Hurwit for translating portions of the manuscript that were originally written in French; to Joan Montgomery Halford and Paula Melville for providing superb administrative and logistical support to the working group; to Paula Melville, Trish DeFrisco, and Susan Shuttleworth for meticulous assistance in the preparation of the report manuscripts; to Rona Brière and Elaine McGarraugh for skillful editing of the report; and, last but not least, to Eugenia Grohman for guidance and extraordinary patience through the review and production process.
SAMUEL H. PRESTON
Chair (through November 1993)
Committee on Population