(15 percent) (IEA, 1993a). Coking coal exports amounted to $2.7 billion and steam coal to $1.5 billion. Most U.S. exports are metallurgical coals, purchased because of their high product quality and consistency, which are important parameters in making coke. However, coke production worldwide is decreasing, as environmental regulations and newer technology change the way steel is produced and as other materials are substituted for steel. Despite increasing international markets for steam coal, this sector of the U.S. export market is expected to remain flat or decrease, because U.S. coal is not competitive on a delivered-price basis with South American and South African coals in Europe and the Middle East, nor with Australian and Indonesian coals in Asia. For example, U.S. coal with an energy content of 12,000 Btu/lb is delivered to Rotterdam from Baltimore at a price of $1.51/106 Btu, while similar coal from Colombia is delivered at $1.31/106 Btu and from South Africa at $1.27/106 Btu (Coal Week International, 1993). These and other competitor producing countries are expanding their coal exporting capability. Thus, exporting U.S. clean coal technology will probably not open any significant new markets for U.S. steam coal.

Markets for Coal Utilization Technology

The most important international markets for coal utilization technologies are for electricity generation. Two major market components have been identified, namely, the construction of new generating capacity and the retrofit and rehabilitation of existing plants (DOE, 1993a). More than half of the new capacity market will be in China, where projected capacity additions are approximately three times those of South Asia, the second largest market. China's need for new capacity through 2010 is more than four times that of all the industrialized countries combined. The world retrofit market, which is driven largely by environmental considerations, is about 25 percent larger in total size than the market for new capacity. About 45 percent of the retrofit market lies in developing countries, notably China. Significant markets also exist in Eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union (DOE, 1993a).

The demands for new and retrofit capacity represent potentially large export markets for U.S. technology. Many of the advanced power generation and environmental control technologies being developed under DOE's CCT program might achieve the two principal market requirements: high-efficiency and minimal environmental impacts. It is very difficult, however, to project the extent of U.S. participation in these international markets. Determining factors will include the effectiveness of foreign competition, the rate of industrialization in the less developed countries, the economic balance between coal costs and the capital costs of new technology, and the environmental constraints within the purchasing countries.

Environmental constraints will have some of the greatest impacts on international sales of coal-related technology. These environmental constraints will de-



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