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Appendix E
Report From Mr. Michael Dyment, Booz • Allen & Hamilton
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Final Report to
National Academy of Sciences
Committee on the Future of the Global Positioning System
May 1, 1995
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
Since our original projections were developed in September 1992, a number of factors have altered the market for GPS and DGPS products and services. These factors, comprising technology, market and policy elements, are having an influence upon the size and veracity of the GPS and DGPS markets.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
Since the early 1990's, institutional issues have had a profound impact upon GPS and DGPS market acceptance in North America....an impact that is only now beginning to drive international markets.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
The general forecast assumptions below were used in our econometric models to quantify market size and composition, and general economic activity in the North American GPS industry (and apply equally with SA On and SA to Zero).
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
Definitions: Advances in GPS technologies and DGPS techniques have been demonstrated to deliver improved performance. The prospect of SA being turned off in the near future may also be greater. This will improve all accuracy categories.
NAME
OF
SERVICE
FORECASTED
ACCURACY
(m 2 dRMS) SA ON
FORECASTED
ACCURACY
(m 2 dRMS) SA OFF
COMM'L
MONTHLY
FEES
SP METHOD
SPS (to 1996)
'100
100
FREE
C/A ONLY SA ON
SPS (to 1999)
'100
20
FREE
SA TO ZERO
SPS (to 2001)
'100
'15
FREE
DUAL FREQ SPS
SPS (to 2003)
'100
'5
FREE
IMPROVED OCS
DGPS4
'10
'5
FREE
CODE DIFF
DGPS3/2
'1
'.5
$50-150
CODE DIFF
DGPS /0
'.02
'.01
$250-500
CODE/NETW
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
Defined applications of DGPS categories continue to grow as the utility of GPS is exploited by industries at all levels of the value chain seeking distinct competitive advantages.
Accuracy
Surveying/Mapping
Land Vehicle
Marine
Aircraft Fleet
Personal
DGPS1/0
Geod. Control
Earth Moving
Dredging
CAT II/III
Self-Surveys
Fault Monitoring
Road Grading
Pylon Posit.
Flight Instrum.
Legal Surveys
Agriculture
Engineering Sun
Geodynamics
DGPS2
Resrc. Mapping
Facility Surveys
Rig Positioning
Precision Approach
Golfing
Reconnaissance
Mapping/GIS
Docking
CAT I
Emergency Location
Utility Mapping
Highway Surveys
Charting
Fishing
Highway Surveys
AVLS Trains
Buoy Positioning
Legal Surveys
Precision Farming
Seismic Surveys
DGPS3
GIS Data Collection
AVLS Automobiles
Channel Nav.
Initial Approach
Sailing
One-Call
AVLS Emergency
Cabling
Vehicle Tracking
Photo Control
AVLS Public Transport
Research
Navigation
AVLS Trucking
Ship Trials
DGPS4
IVHS Database GIS
Farming
Harbor Entry
En Route
Hiking
IVHS Navigation
Harbor Approach
Oceanic
Area Navigation
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
Cost of GPS technology of OEM or imbedded applications will continue to decline, and performance will dramatically increase in lockstep.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
The GPS Product area will exhibit similar trends, with avionics and surveying equipment retaining the highest sophistication and selling price.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
The marine market will enjoy complete high end penetration from GPS and DGPS, while the recreational market must wait for higher utility, low cost entries spun out of the land vehicle sector.
Marine Segment Penetration (SA On) Cumulative 10 Year Market 1994-2003
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
The land vehicle market is comprised of integrated sensors and systems, and CD ROM technologies will set the pace for market adoption in North America.
Land Vehicle Segment Penetration (SA On) Cumulative 10 Year Market 1994-2003
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
The surveying, mapping and GIS markets continue to enjoy the highest penetration percentages of all markets. GIS is only now beginning, with networks such as ACCQPOINT and DCI now available nationally.
Surveying/ Mapping/GIS Market Segment Penetration (SA On) Cumulative 10 Year Market 1994-2003
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
The air transport market will remain in turmoil for several years as WAAS and other FAA driven programs set the pace for GPS acceptance.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
Careful analysis indicates that with SA On, the largest markets will utilize DGPS corrections, provided by government and private services.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
While the GPS product market dominates projections in the mid 1990's, the picture changes over time. Soon integrated systems and network services become important components of the overall product mix.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
It is possible that the DoD will relax the present policy on SA, an event that will have a profound impact upon GPS markets in most sectors. Some of the market factors with to Zero are indicated below.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
Other satellite enhancements could follow in the late 1990's. Market factors with improved OCS and dual frequency standard positioning service are indicated below.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
With SA to Zero, all categories of performance increase except DGPS4, which loses to other categories.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
All categories of GPS market increase. GPS equipment manufacturing takes a dramatic jump.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
The impact of policy alternatives upon market composition will be meaningful. Changes in market composition are highlighted below.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
Comparison of the data by markets shows a variational impact of the SA policy upon each
Impact of Policy Alternatives Upon Market Composition (Units) Cumulative 10 Year Market 1994-2003
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
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North American GPS Markets
In summary, the market for GPS and DGPS products and services continues to be an attractive opportunity for manufacturers, developers and systems integrators. With SA to Zero, economic opportunity increases substantially.
BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON
Representative terms from entire chapter:
segment penetration