Appendix E
Report From Mr. Michael Dyment, Booz • Allen & Hamilton



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--> Appendix E Report From Mr. Michael Dyment, Booz • Allen & Hamilton

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--> Final Report to National Academy of Sciences Committee on the Future of the Global Positioning System May 1, 1995 BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets Since our original projections were developed in September 1992, a number of factors have altered the market for GPS and DGPS products and services. These factors, comprising technology, market and policy elements, are having an influence upon the size and veracity of the GPS and DGPS markets. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets Since the early 1990's, institutional issues have had a profound impact upon GPS and DGPS market acceptance in North America....an impact that is only now beginning to drive international markets. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets The general forecast assumptions below were used in our econometric models to quantify market size and composition, and general economic activity in the North American GPS industry (and apply equally with SA On and SA to Zero). BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets Definitions: Advances in GPS technologies and DGPS techniques have been demonstrated to deliver improved performance. The prospect of SA being turned off in the near future may also be greater. This will improve all accuracy categories. NAME OF SERVICE FORECASTED ACCURACY (m 2 dRMS) SA ON FORECASTED ACCURACY (m 2 dRMS) SA OFF COMM'L MONTHLY FEES SP METHOD SPS (to 1996) '100 100 FREE C/A ONLY SA ON SPS (to 1999) '100 20 FREE SA TO ZERO SPS (to 2001) '100 '15 FREE DUAL FREQ SPS SPS (to 2003) '100 '5 FREE IMPROVED OCS DGPS4 '10 '5 FREE CODE DIFF DGPS3/2 '1 '.5 $50-150 CODE DIFF DGPS /0 '.02 '.01 $250-500 CODE/NETW BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets Defined applications of DGPS categories continue to grow as the utility of GPS is exploited by industries at all levels of the value chain seeking distinct competitive advantages. Accuracy Surveying/Mapping Land Vehicle Marine Aircraft Fleet Personal DGPS1/0 Geod. Control Earth Moving Dredging CAT II/III Self-Surveys   Fault Monitoring Road Grading Pylon Posit. Flight Instrum.     Legal Surveys Agriculture         Engineering Sun           Geodynamics         DGPS2 Resrc. Mapping Facility Surveys Rig Positioning Precision Approach Golfing   Reconnaissance Mapping/GIS Docking CAT I Emergency Location   Utility Mapping Highway Surveys Charting   Fishing   Highway Surveys AVLS Trains Buoy Positioning       Legal Surveys Precision Farming Seismic Surveys     DGPS3 GIS Data Collection AVLS Automobiles Channel Nav. Initial Approach Sailing   One-Call AVLS Emergency Cabling Vehicle Tracking     Photo Control AVLS Public Transport Research       Navigation AVLS Trucking Ship Trials     DGPS4 IVHS Database GIS Farming Harbor Entry En Route Hiking     IVHS Navigation Harbor Approach Oceanic         Area Navigation     BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets Cost of GPS technology of OEM or imbedded applications will continue to decline, and performance will dramatically increase in lockstep. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets The GPS Product area will exhibit similar trends, with avionics and surveying equipment retaining the highest sophistication and selling price. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets The marine market will enjoy complete high end penetration from GPS and DGPS, while the recreational market must wait for higher utility, low cost entries spun out of the land vehicle sector. Marine Segment Penetration (SA On) Cumulative 10 Year Market 1994-2003 BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets The land vehicle market is comprised of integrated sensors and systems, and CD ROM technologies will set the pace for market adoption in North America. Land Vehicle Segment Penetration (SA On) Cumulative 10 Year Market 1994-2003 BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets The surveying, mapping and GIS markets continue to enjoy the highest penetration percentages of all markets. GIS is only now beginning, with networks such as ACCQPOINT and DCI now available nationally. Surveying/ Mapping/GIS Market Segment Penetration (SA On) Cumulative 10 Year Market 1994-2003 BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets The air transport market will remain in turmoil for several years as WAAS and other FAA driven programs set the pace for GPS acceptance. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets Careful analysis indicates that with SA On, the largest markets will utilize DGPS corrections, provided by government and private services. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets While the GPS product market dominates projections in the mid 1990's, the picture changes over time. Soon integrated systems and network services become important components of the overall product mix. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets It is possible that the DoD will relax the present policy on SA, an event that will have a profound impact upon GPS markets in most sectors. Some of the market factors with to Zero are indicated below. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets Other satellite enhancements could follow in the late 1990's. Market factors with improved OCS and dual frequency standard positioning service are indicated below. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets With SA to Zero, all categories of performance increase except DGPS4, which loses to other categories. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets All categories of GPS market increase. GPS equipment manufacturing takes a dramatic jump. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets The impact of policy alternatives upon market composition will be meaningful. Changes in market composition are highlighted below. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets Comparison of the data by markets shows a variational impact of the SA policy upon each Impact of Policy Alternatives Upon Market Composition (Units) Cumulative 10 Year Market 1994-2003 BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON

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--> North American GPS Markets In summary, the market for GPS and DGPS products and services continues to be an attractive opportunity for manufacturers, developers and systems integrators. With SA to Zero, economic opportunity increases substantially. BOOZ • ALLEN & HAMILTON