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The Evolution of Information
Infrastructures: The Competitive
Search for Solutions
JOHN S. MAYO
While reflecting on what might be said about the "search for
solutions" noted in the title of this paper, I recalled the story of the
young executive who was about to leave the office at 6:00 p.m., when
he found the boss standing with a piece of paper in front of the
shredder.
"This is very important, and my secretary has left," said the boss.
"Can you make this thing work?"
"Certainly, sir," said the young executive. He turned on the
machine, inserted the paper, and pressed the start button.
"Excellent, excellent!" said the boss as his paper disappeared
inside the machine, "I just need the one copy."
The message of this story is that a solution that has worked well
in the past might be totally wrong for the problem at hand. This
message also applies to the search for information infrastructure so-
lutions.
With this in mind, I plan first to examine the driving forces that
are propelling the emerging multimedia revolution and the evolution
of information infrastructures. Then, I will discuss where these forces
are taking us: to the National Information Infrastructure (NII) and,
ultimately, to the Global Information Infrastructure (GII). Finally, I
will briefly examine the consequences of this powerful and pervasive
technological change on those involved in research and development.
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JOHN S. MAYO
FORCES DRIVING CHANGES IN THE
INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURE
It is no secret that information technology is the driving force
and the key enabler of the emerging multimedia revolution and the
evolution of the NII, as well as a host of other advances that together
are changing the way we live, work, play, travel, and communicate.
We have seen technological capability double every year in certain
fields, such as computing and photonics, and double every 18 months
in microelectronics. Even software, once a"bottleneck" technology,
is beginning to advance rapidly in major areas like telecommunica-
tions, thanks to object-oriented programming and reuse of previously
developed software modules.
Microelectronics
In microelectronics, we have witnessed the exponential growth
of the familiar Moore Curve as the number of components per chip
moves steadily toward known physical limits. In the early part of the
next century, familiar "bulk effect" solid-state devices may mature
with transistors that measure about 400 atoms by 400 atoms each-
the smallest such transistor likely to operate reliably at room tem-
perature. The new frontier then will not involve making the devices
smaller, but in creatively and economically using the vast increase in
complexity and power made possible by this remarkable technology.
The amazing progress of microelectronics represents a micro-
cosm of the broad thrust of information technology and the other key
driving forces made possible by information technology all the most
vital forces that are leading to the multimedia revolution and the
evolution of the NII. Let me examine the progress and impact of
these related forces.
After the invention of the integrated circuit, every time the com-
plexity of silicon chips increased by a factor of a thousand, some-
thing had to be re-engineered. The first re-engineering that was done,
as we headed toward that first thousandfold increase, was to change
all of our design processes, which had been based on discrete compo-
nents.
When we reached 1,000 components per chip, we used the new
digital circuitry to re-engineer our products from analog to digital, as
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EVOLUTION OF INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURES
3
did many other industries. Let me stress that this early progress
toward digital products, enabled by microelectronics and software,
has brought about the digitalization of most systems and services
domestically and, more and more, internationally. Digitalization is a
powerful force driving us toward multimedia communications and
the NII.
About a decade ago, it became possible to make chips approach-
ing 1 million components, and this brought us powerful microcom-
puters, along with all the peripherals related to microcomputers and
the necessary software systems. This led, in turn, to an explosion of
advanced telecommunications services that forced AT&T to re-engi-
neer itself from a company that provided largely voice and data-on-
voice telecommunications services to one focused on universal infor-
mation services, or the provision of voice, data, and images anywhere,
anytime, with convenience and economy. Providing advanced ser-
vices on an increasingly intelligent global network was the beginning
of multimedia communications, which has now become the revolu-
tion of the l990s and beyond.
We are currently experiencing another thousandfold increase in
components per chip. Re-engineering has now extended beyond our
company and is leading to the merging of communications, comput-
ers, consumer electronics, and entertainment. The convergence of these
four industries is being accomplished through joint projects, joint
ventures, mergers, acquisitions, and some start-up companies. This
industrial re-engineering appears to be the next-to-last stage of the
information revolution brought on by the invention of the transistor.
The last stage, and one that may go on forever, is the re-engi-
neering of society—of how we live, work, play, travel, and commu-
nicate. Education will change with distance learning and home
schooling; virtual offices and working at home will transform our
work lives; routine tasks such as visiting and shopping more and
more will be done from home. Let me add, however, that many of
these changes will be generational; social change, as well as technol-
ogy, is needed to make them happen.
Speech Processing
The trend toward increasingly powerful silicon chips is enabling
exponential increases in the processing power of fixed-point digital
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JOHN S. MAYO
signal processors. This trend makes it possible to use much less
processing power to process a specific speech-recognition or speech-
synthesis algorithm. Today, for example, a single chip can recognize
a 100-word vocabulary, a function that would have required 20 to 30
chips 5 years ago.
Based on these advances, we can project that speaker-indepen-
dent automatic speech recognition and synthesis will become com-
monplace. These technologies will mature in a variety of service
capabilities based on the ability of intelligent machines to talk and
listen much as people do. In addition, speech in one language will be
automatically translated into a second language, which might then be
synthesized with the voice characteristics of the original speaker.
Virtually unrestricted recognition vocabulary will permit natural lan-
guage interaction—with humans, machines, and databases.
Automatic speech recognition is vital to the multimedia revolu-
tion not because it replaces human operators, but because it is a
powerful technology for making multimedia systems easy to use.
Ease of use is an imperative for broad marketplace success.
Image Processing
The emerging technology of image processing is related in many
respects to speech processing and is another driving force toward
multimedia communications and the evolution of our information
infrastructure. The same key information technologies that are en-
abling progress in speech processing are also fueling rapid progress
in image processing, especially in the important areas of image and
video compression.
Consider video compression. At the network capacity of two
Integrated Services Digital Network (ISDN) Basic Rate Interface
channels, or 128 kilobits per second, we can have video that is com-
pressed using the so-called p X 64 international standard for video-
telephony, for person-to-person communications. This standard was
designed for sending videotelephony over phone lines in multiples of
64 kilobits per second. At this capacity, we have the ISDN video-
phone, which is likely to be a highly attractive product as long as
copper wires make up the local telephone plant. At the network
capacity of 1.5 megabits per second, we can have high-quality desk-
top video compressed with the maximum level of the p X 64 stan-
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EVOLUTION OF INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURES
A
card. This network capacity can support National Television System
Committee (NTSC) color television with VHS quality, using the
Moving Picture Experts Group (MPEG) standards, which are de-
signed for capturing moving images on CD-ROM and for storing and
transmitting movies and broadcast television. However, with avail-
able compression technology, a capacity of 1.5 megabits per second
would not deliver broadcast quality for scenes with rapid motion and
detail.
The network capacity of 45 megabits per second will readily
support high-definition TV (HDTV) compressed to about 20 mega-
bits per second, using variations of the MPEG-2 coding algorithm.
That is a considerable reduction (about 50:1 compression) from the
roughly 1 billion bits per second required for uncompressed HDTV.
That same network capacity will also support near studio-quality
video (HDTV or NTSC) that has been compressed by using varia-
tions of the identical coding algorithm.
Common Standards
Another force driving the progress of multimedia communica-
tions and the evolution of the information infrastructure is the world-
wide push toward common standards that will encourage global net-
working. Photonic transmission facilities, for example, will be based
on the evolving international standard called SDH, for Synchronous
Digital Hierarchy. Because SDH defines standard network inter-
faces, service providers and end users will be able to use equipment
from many different vendors without worrying about compatibility.
SDH will provide efficient transport of broadband services and will
simplify networks. Similar standards in domestic networks will al-
low digital communications into the workplace and home, and they
will make possible services dependent on high rates of data transmis-
s~on.
Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network (B-ISDN) is a
new digital format as well as an international standard that supports
multiple services, such as voice, data, and new video services, using
fiber-optic transmission facilities. B-ISDN is currently defined at
interface rates of 155 megabits per second and 622 megabits per
second. Based on the fast-packet technology of asynchronous trans-
fer mode (ATM), B-ISDN could herald an exciting new era in global
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JOHN S. MAYO
communications networking, as equipment vendors and service pro-
viders adopt compatible standards to provide sophisticated high-band-
width services.
Market Demand
The demands of the marketplace, more than technology, set the
pace for the multimedia and infrastructure revolution. For the greater
part of this century, the customer willingly accepted whatever tech-
nological capabilities we were able to achieve. Thus, the telecommu-
nications industry was supplier driven, and the suppliers managed the
evolution of the industry and the NII. However, the technology
became so rich that it made possible many more products and ser-
vices than the user could accept or was willing to pay for. That
marked the transition from a supplier-driven industry to today's cus-
tomer-driven industry from supplier push to marketplace pull.
Competition
The global transfer and assimilation of information technology,
along with political and regulatory forces, such as the move to priva-
tize telecommunications around the world, are leading to strong in-
ternational competition in providing communications products and
services. Such pervasive competition is another powerful force driv-
ing the evolution of both multimedia communications and informa-
tion infrastructures. The public policy challenge is to provide a frame-
work in which that evolution may occur.
THE MULTIMEDIA REVOLUTION
Let us look a bit deeper into these subjects, starting with the
multimedia revolution. After all, the pursuit of multimedia is creat-
ing social pressures on the NII and the information superhighways.
So, what is "multimedia"? A reasonable working definition is that
the term multimedia refers to information that combines more than
one medium, including speech, music, text, data, graphics, fax, im-
age, video, and animation. At AT&T, we tend to focus on multime-
dia products and services that are networked, or connected over a
communications and information network. Examples of this range
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EVOLUTION OF INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURES
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from videotelephony and videoconferencing; to real-time video on
demand, interactive video, and multimedia messaging; to remote
collaborative work, interactive information services such as elec-
tronic shopping, and multimedia education and training. Eventually,
we will have virtual reality, which will enable people to experience a
place or an event indirectly and remotely and do so in all dimen-
sions.
We are excited about multimedia because public switched net-
works, or information infrastructures, can currently accommodate a
wide array of networked multimedia communications. Given the di-
rections in which those networks are evolving, they will be able to
handle an increasingly vast range of such communications. More-
over, a potentially enormous market is out there for multimedia hard-
ware and supporting software. Although estimates differ widely, the
most commonly quoted projection for the total worldwide market for
multimedia products and services is roughly $100 billion by the year
2000.
AT&T is playing a major part in facilitating the emerging multi-
media revolution: We provide services, network products to local
service providers, and products to end users. These are familiar roles
for AT&T, so let me briefly describe another perhaps less well known
aspect of the multimedia revolution that we are studying. That role is
as the host for a wide variety of digital content and multimedia appli-
cations developed by others. Hosting is a function that connects end
users to the content they seek. Customers will gain easy and timely
access to personal communications, transactions, information ser-
vices, and entertainment via wired and wireless connections to tele-
phones, handheld devices, computers, and, eventually, television sets.
Sources for this digital content will range from publishers and large
movie studios to small software houses.
Global standards and open critical interfaces are vital to this
complex hosting function. The entertainment industry, for example,
must have software systems that are compatible with those of the
hosting industry. These software systems must, in turn, be compat-
ible with those of the communications and information-networking
industry, which must be compatible with customer premises equip-
ment and systems.
In the age of multimedia communications, consumers who are
geographically separated from each other will do more than just play
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JOHN S. MAYO
games together over networks. According to the AT&T vision,
people will increasingly seek new relationships based on "tele-
presence" a new type of community and social experience indepen-
dent of geography. This potential for interactive networks is quite
unlike what will result from the 500 preprogrammed cable TV chan-
nels proposed for the United States. The beauty of interactive net-
works is that consumers will have the freedom to choose any subject
or service from the intelligent terminals in their homes. And they
will be able to network clusters of friends or associates to enjoy such
services as a group.
Although I have focused heavily on the impact that multimedia
will have on the consumer, networked multimedia communications
will dramatically change the nature of work and will therefore have a
broad effect on business. Videoconferencing, for example, can en-
hance productivity, save time, and reduce travel. Moreover, current
developments in multimedia telephony are making realistic the possi-
bility of remote collaboration. In a few years, a person could be
working in real time with colleagues in New York, Washington,
fIong Kong, Paris, and Sydney. They could, for example, accom-
plish the task of producing printed materials, presentation slides, and
a videotape introducing a new product line.
EVOLUTION OF THE NII
The quest for multimedia is driving social issues that relate to
the NII and the information superhighway. The NII might be viewed
as the superhighway plus all the terminals and databases connected
to it.
What is AT&T's vision of the NII? It is to bring people together,
giving them easy access to each other and to the information and
services they want and need, any time, anywhere. In AT&T's view,
the NII is a seamless web of communications and information net-
works, computers, databases, and consumer electronics, which will
put huge quantities of information at the fingertips of a variety of
users. Quite simply, we see the communications component of the
NII as a vast interoperable network of local, long-distance, and glo-
bal networks; wireless; broadcast and cable; and satellites. In addi-
tion, the NII encompasses the Internet as well as the test beds associ-
ated with the High-Performance Computing Initiative, such as the
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EVOLUTION OF INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURES
9
Blanca test bed with which AT&T is affiliated. However, the NII is
not a uniform end-to-end network developed and operated by gov-
ernment or any one company. It is the totality of networks in our
nation, interconnected domestically and internationally.
These networks consist of a wide variety of technologies that
provide a complete range of features and transport speeds. In the
United States, competitive backbone information superhighways of
optical fibers are already in place and expanding rapidly. However,
access to the backbone is still largely via copper wire pairs, espe-
cially for homes, schools, and small businesses. Many consumers
and small firms will be able to get substantial value from the NII
using recent technological advances, such as ISDN. Genuine and
effective competition in the local exchange is a long-term possibility
and is the key to advancing the deployment of needed digital and
higher-bandwidth access services. We also believe that the coaxial
cables of the CATV networks can become important elements of the
nation's broadband superhighways.
One key to making this network of networks a true global infor-
mation superhighway for multimedia and other communications is a
system of open, user-friendly interfaces and global standards. Such a
system both promotes maximum interoperability and connectivity
and supports a multivendor environment that allows maximum cus-
tomer choice of equipment and services.
To ensure that people can use whatever NII capabilities they
need when they need them, a range of bandwidth offerings should be
made available.
Several policy issues are associated with the NII:
(1) The government should help provide the vision for the way
the NII will evolve and operate. Private industry should build, own,
and operate the NII under competitive conditions.
(2) The government should provide incentives and opportuni-
ties, such as tax credits for investment in equipment, R&D, or worker
training, to encourage the private sector to invest in and deploy new
information technology. The government should continue to focus
its direct support on precompetitive projects or applications that dem-
onstrate and test new NII technologies.
(3) In order to realize the broad benefits of the multimedia revo-
lution and the NII, there must be full and fair competition in all
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JOHN S. MAYO
sectors of our communications and information industry, both do-
mestically and internationally.
(4) Private industry must continue to play the lead role in work-
ing to define the interoperability standards of the NII. The govern-
ment must continue to work with and represent industry in some
international treaty organizations that develop standards. Jointly, we
need to speed up the standards-setting process.
(5) Perhaps the broadest policy challenge is that of facilitating
public acceptance of and comfort with the benefits of multimedia
communications and the NII. This will require setting ground rules
to protect electronically available intellectual property, creating a
framework to ensure privacy and security of information, and estab-
lishing mechanisms to make these benefits available to the largest
number of users. This last point is vital if we are to avoid having a
nation of information "haves" and "have note." The challenge, sim-
ply put, is to develop a new definition of universal service.
Fortunately, most of the key issues and challenges surrounding
multimedia and the NII are already being addressed by cooperative
government and private-sector efforts. Much more remains to be
done. The ultimate resolution of these issues will require the support
of all of us.
IMPACT ON R&D
At the beginning of this paper, I noted that a solution that has
worked well in the past might be totally wrong for the problem at
hand. This applies broadly to R&D and R&D environments. The
forces behind the emerging multimedia revolution and the evolution
of information infrastructures, along with the benefits associated with
the information age, are also bringing about a new paradigm for
R&D and a new R&D environment.
The traditional R&D approach of past decades was to use proto-
typing and redesign: to do, then learn, and then redo as often as
necessary to produce a good product, and to do so through serial
handoffs from one function to another. Today, that approach is not
competitive because of the increasingly complex and rapid advances
of information technology, multimedia communications, and infor-
mation infrastructures. The marketplace demands more and cheaper
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EVOLUTION OF INFORMATION INFRASTRUCTURES
1 1
products and services with ever-shorter delivery intervals. In addi-
tion, an increasing demand exists for the customization of products to
ever-smaller buying units.
Thus, in contrast to the traditional R&D approach, we must pur-
sue concurrent engineering, together with the important integration
function of deciding and planning precisely what to do before we
build anything. Instead of talking to the customer after we complete
a project, we do so before starting, because the customer is really in
control. The vital integration function, which helps ensure that the
product or service works the first time, is becoming an ever-larger
piece of the R&D effort.
Functionally structured R&D has yielded to customer-focused,
multifunctional teams. This shift has helped generate a new R&D
paradigm and a new R&D environment with very different processes
and demands on people. Let me illustrate with the typical challenge
of trying to pursue a number of R&D projects at once. Within today's
lean, cost-effective R&D organizations, there are usually many more
projects than there are expert staff. Therefore, dedicating these ex-
perts to specific projects would result in poor overall project perfor-
mance. Instead, support systems must facilitate the training and shar-
ing of expertise, most often through well-orchestrated multifunctional
teams and new techniques for learning, including a strong focus on
intergroup learning.
Another key element of the new R&D paradigm and its associ-
ated environment is a focus on reusable assets, such as previously
designed and tested software modules and hardware platforms. Re-
usable assets facilitate the creation of products and services from
higher-level elements. They enable organizations to share key skills
across projects and create world-class experts, while also developing
rapid and cost-effective solutions, customizations, and competitive
advantage. Reusable assets are the most powerful mechanism we
have today for improving R&D productivity. Proper use of such
assets can make possible perhaps as much as a tenfold improvement
in design productivity. The reusable-asset concept also extends to
families of reusable processes, which unify architectures and facili-
tate efficient realization of products and services.
Structuring R&D around reusable assets produces an environ-
ment in which research is more important than ever. A major part of
doing good research is finding good problems on which to work.
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JOHN S. MAYO
Bell Labs has never had to look far; every day we face many real
problems for which we do not have good solutions. Moreover, re-
search results are themselves reusable assets; they help reduce the
development effort and shorten the development interval. The new
R&D approach also yields lower costs and higher quality.
The new R&D paradigm and R&D environment cannot by them-
selves fulfill the demands of the new marketplace paradigm of growth
through new corporate structures, new customers, and new competi-
tors. R&D, however, must play the important role of identifying the
new opportunities and parameters that a corporation must pursue
with its total resources.
SUMMARY
Rich information technology, the worldwide push toward global
standards, ever-increasing customer demands, and growing interna-
tional competition are key forces behind the emerging multimedia
revolution and the evolution of national information infrastructures.
The growth of multimedia communications and the further competi-
tive evolution of our National Information Infrastructure, as well as
the Global Information Infrastructure, raise some difficult issues and
challenges, but these advances promise a broad range of information-
age benefits to virtually every citizen of our nation.
Already, we find that yesterday's R&D solutions are no longer
adequate for the revolution at hand. A new R&D paradigm for a new
R&D environment is developing rapidly. And each and every one of
us, especially those in R&D, must understand and assimilate this new
paradigm. We must ensure that it both serves society well and cre-
ates an environment in which the best minds of the world seek ca-
reers in science and engineering. Long-term progress depends on it,
and it can be done.
Representative terms from entire chapter:
information infrastructures
