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Science, Policy, and tho Unmet I. mprovln Decisionmahing Committee on Science and Policy for the Coastal Ocean Ocean Studies Board Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1995

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS . NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, DC 20418 This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sci- ences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report and the symposia on which it is based were supported by contracts with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (Coastal Ocean Program and National Ocean Service), the Environmental Protection Agency, the Federal Emergency Management Agency, the Minerals Man- agement Service, the Andrew W. Mellon Foundation, and the David and Lucille Packard Foundation. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of any of the sponsors. Cover art was created by Eileen Kiliman, a native of White Plains, New York, now living in Front Royal, Virginia. She earned a B.B.A. in marketing and a certificate in commercial art from Pace University. After eight years of representing a graphics design firm, she has made her lifetime love of art a full-time profession, receiving a variety of commissions. Her style projects childhood observations combined with adult introspection. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 95-70801 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05339-0 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Box 285 Washngton, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) B-668 Copyright 1995 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE AND POLICY FOR THE COASTAL OCEAN DONALD F. BOESCH (Co-chair), University of Maryland, Cambridge BILIANA CICIN-SAIN (Co-chair), University of Delaware, Newark PETER M. DOUGLAS, California Coastal Commission, San Francisco EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California SUSAN S. MANNA, Oregon State University, Corvallis DAVID H. KEELEY, Maine State Planning Office, Augusta MICHAEL K. ORBACH, Duke University, Beaufort, North Carolina JOHN M. TEAL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts Staff EDWARD R. URBAN, JR., Study Director LAVONCYE MALLORY, Project Assistant . . . 1~!

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OCEAN STUDIES BOARD WILLIAM MERRELL (Chairman), Texas A&M University, Galveston DONALD F. BOESCH, University of Maryland, Cambridge GERALD A. CANN, Independent Consultant, Rockville, Maryland ROBERT CANNON, Stanford University, California WILLIAM CURRY, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts ELLEN R.M. DRUFE7EL, University of California, Irvine RANA FINE, University of Miami, Florida JOHN E. FLIPSE, Independent Consultant, Georgetown, South Carolina MICHAEL FREILICH, Oregon State University, Corvallis GORDON GREVE, Consultant, Katy, Texas SUSAN S. MANNA, Oregon State University, Corvallis ROBERT KNOX, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California JOHN MAGNUSON, University of Wisconsin, Madison ARTHUR NOWELL, University of Washington, Seattle C. BARRY RALEIGH, University of Hawaii, Honolulu PETER RHINES, University of Washington, Seattle FRANK RICHTER, University of Chicago, Illinois BRIAN ROTHSCHILD, University of Maryland, Solomons THOMAS C. ROVER, University of Alaska, Fairbanks LYNDA SHAPIRO, University of Oregon, Charleston SHARON SMITH, University of Miami, Florida PAUL STOFFA, University of Texas, Austin Staff MARY HOPE KATSOUROS, Director EDWARD R. URBAN, JR., Staff Officer ELIZABETH TURNER, Research Associate MARY PECHACEK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, Senior Project Assistant LORA TAYLOR, Senior Project Assistant LAVONCYE MALLORY, Senior Secretary CURTIS TAYLOR, Office Assistant PAULETTE SALMON, Project Assistant zv

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COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES M. GORDON WOLMAN (Chairman), The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania EDITH BROWN WEISS, Georgetown University Law Center, Washington, D.C. FAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, University of Virginia, Charlottesville W. BARCLAY KAMB, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena PERRY L. MCCARTY, Stanford University, California S. GEORGE PHILANDER, Princeton University, New Jersey RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario THOMAS A. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN SILBERGELD, University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore STEVEN M. STANLEY, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida Staff STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director JAMES E. MALLORY, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate v

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal govern- ment on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of out- standing engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Harold Liebowitz is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineer- ing communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vice-chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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Preface Coastal areas of the United States and elsewhere face pressures from a vari- ety of sources, both from human activities and from natural fluctuations of the environment. To confront these pressures, the concepts of ecosystem manage- ment and sustainable development have become part of national and international discussions about environmental management. Although it is not yet clear how to implement ecosystem management for the sustained use of coastal areas and their resources, one thing is certain: knowledge about coastal environmental and societal processes will be fundamental to arty attempt to manage coastal environ- ments in such a way that resources can be sustained and multiple uses accommo- dated. The Ocean Studies Board (OSB) is committed to promoting the science necessary for effective coastal policy and has been active in recent years in defining important issues related to natural science in coastal areas. In response to a request from the White House Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR), a committee of the OSB conducted a study to provide advice about coastal science topics related to CENR's areas of responsibility. The resulting report, Priorities for Coastal Ecosystem Science (NRC, 1994a), advises the government about what coastal science topics are most important for improv- ing coastal management practices. Another OSB report, Oceanography in the Next Decade: Building New Partnerships, pointed out that: Policy decisions concerning . . . interactions of the ocean with everyday life rest upon a sound scientific understanding of the ocean. To the extent that such policy decisions are to be useful, they must be consistent with the best available information about how the system works: its physics, chemistry, geology, and biology. Both the government and the scientific community as a whole must . . V11

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. ~ . V111 PREFACE ensure that what is known about the ocean is made available to policy makers, that what is not known is clearly stated, and that progress in furthering our basic understanding continues. (NRC, 1992b, p. 17) Thus, scientists have an important role and responsibility in working with policymakers to ensure that coastal environmental policies are based solidly on scientific understanding. Carrying out necessary science and using it in coastal policymaking are often difficult. This report, Science, Policy, and the Coast: Improving Decisionmaking, offers advice to all partners in the coastal manage- ment and policymaking process to improve the use of science in the management of our coastal waters. WILLIAM MERRELL Ocean Studies Board, Chairman

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 INTRODUCTION Coastal Environments Under Pressure, 5 The Importance of Science, 7 Origins of This Assessment, 9 Strategy Used, 10 Objectives of the Report, 12 REGIONAL SYMPOSIA The California Symposium, 13 The Gulf of Maine Symposium, 18 The Gulf of Mexico Symposium, 21 Arl~lr~.~in~ Cumulative Impacts, 24 ~ C ~ 3 CHALLENGES TO EFFECTIVE USE OF SCIENCE IN MAKING AND IMPLEMENTING COASTAL POLICY The Role and Limitations of Science and Policymaking, 27 1 s 13 27 Cultural Differences, 29 Scientific Advisory and Review Mechanisms, 35 Integration of Natural and Social Sciences, 42 Prediction and Uncertainty, 45 Setting the Science Agenda, 50 Dealing with Complexities in the Coastal Decisionmaking Process, 55 Integrated and Adaptive Management, 59 IX

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x 4 FINDINGS AND RECOMMENDATIONS Issue 1 Interactions Between Coastal Scientists and Policymakers, 67 Issue 2 Integrated and Adaptive Management, 73 Issue 3 Allocation of Resources, 75 REFERENCES APPENDIX - Biographies of Committee Members CONTENTS 63 77 83