programs on the severity of abuse and addiction among needle exchange and bleach distribution program participants.

  • A better monitoring system should be established for assessing long-term societal changes in drug use at the community level due to needle exchange programs.

NOTES

1.  

Specifically the GAO was requested to: (1) review the results of studies addressing the effectiveness of needle exchange programs in the United States and abroad; (2) assess the credibility of a forecasting model developed at Yale University that estimates the impact of a needle exchange program on the rate of new HIV infections; and (3) determine whether federal funds can be used in support of studies and demonstrations of needle exchange programs.

2.  

The U.S. project sites were Berkeley, California; Boston, Massachusetts; Boulder, Colorado; New Haven, Connecticut; New York City, New York; Portland, Oregon; San Francisco, California; Santa Cruz, California; Seattle, Washington; and Tacoma, Washington. Sites abroad included: Montréal, Toronto, and Vancouver (Canada); Amsterdam, the Netherlands; and London, England.

3.  

To derive the estimate of the relative impact, Kaplan and his colleagues developed a model based on a circulation theory. The basic idea is that each time an infected needle is removed from circulation among a population of injection drug users and replaced with a sterile needle, the risk of infecting some member of that population is decreased. This model was based on a two-state continuous time Markov process and assumed that uncontaminated needles become infected at a rate that does not change over time, and infected needles become uncontaminated at another rate that also does not change over time. Under these assumptions, a formula was developed for the expected proportion of circulating needles that were infected. This formula involved these rates and the mean circulation time. Data from the Syringe Tracking System developed for the New Haven project were used to estimate these rates as well as the mean circulation times of needles before and after the initiation of the needle exchange program. These estimates and formulas were used to determine that the relative reduction in the expected proportion of circulating needles that were infected was 33 percent.

4.  

In order to compute absolute reduction in incidence, estimates of the baseline HIV incidence rate before the initiation of the needle exchange program were required. This was determined by introducing some additional modeling assumptions concerning the dynamics of the epidemic. These calculations, together with additional assumptions about the proportion of infections among injection drug users resulting from needle sharing as opposed to sexual transmission, estimated that between 1 and 4 HIV infections were prevented per 100 injection drug users per year. This range of the estimated number of infections averted was derived by two methods: (1) the equilibrium method and (2) the back calculation method (involving 7 years of AIDS incidence data for New Haven). The equilibrium method estimates 1.2 to 2.8 averted infections; the back calculation method estimates 1.07 to 3.73



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