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5 Values and Institutions INTRODUCTION The "salmon problem" comes at a time of intensive questioning of values and ethics concerning human relationships with nature. American conservation policy generally is grounded in moral values (Callicott 1991~. To a large extent, the values are and have been anthropocentric. "Preservationists," in the moral tradition linking Thoreau and Emerson with John Muir, emphasize the aesthetic, spiritual, and psychological values of preserving wilderness. Around the begin- ning of this century, a more democratic and practical moral position was found among "conservationists," such as Gifford Pinchot, who established the U.S. Forest Service. In accordance with the "gospel of efficiency" (Hays 1959) and the philosophy of utilitarianism, conservation became defined as the "greatest good of the greatest number for the longest time" (Callicott 1991:45~. Nature became "natural resources"; and science, with its own world view, became the basis for determining the "best" uses of those resources. This moral position predominates and is exemplified in the law, policies, and practices of state and federal resource-management agencies and in the training of most natural-re- source scientists. However, its anthropocentrism has long been challenged, as in Aldo Leopold's formulation of a more ecocentric "land ethic" (Leopold 1944), in a sustained, highly diverse moral and political position that we now think of as "environmentalism." Environmental issues have been addressed through choices made within economic, political, and individual ethical frameworks; an impor- tant component of political choice has been planning, a concept that has substan- tially influenced federal actions in the Northwest. 115

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116 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST The values and the ethical positions held today by people involved in and affected by the salmon problem of the Pacific Northwest encompass all that history and more; these values encompass what Castle (1993) has called a "plu- ralistic, pragmatic and evolutionary approach to natural resource management." A first step is recognizing and articulating that pluralism, because problems in managing and protecting fish populations are due in part to the failure to articu- late divergent interests, goals, and values and to address them explicitly (e.g., Larkin 1977, Rothschild 1983, Barber and Taylor 19903. This chapter describes how the widely varied ways that humans intervene in salmon populations are linked to socially validated values. From a policy perspective, the salmon problem is one of long-standing and serious conflict in fact, interest, and values. Disputes over fact reflect scientific uncertainty and difficulty in developing consensus among scientists over inter- pretation of facts (Ludwig et al. 1993~. Interest conflict is related to the clustering of preferences and values around particular uses of salmon and their habitats, such as flood control, timber harvest, economic return from hydroelectric power, and agricultural, industrial, or municipal use. Examples of interest conflict might be a position favoring dam drawdown over flow augmentation to protect irriga- tors or a position favoring harvest restrictions rather than a change in river flow to protect the operations of aluminum companies. People often invoke widely held values to protect particular interests, but values are genuine sources of conflict in themselves. Some people hold the value that it is unnatural to transport salmon in barges, and thus oppose that option. Those with a more utilitarian value system argue that it is the cheapest and most effective way to get salmon through the system of Snake River dams. Value conflict stems from different assessments of the desirable goals of public action. For example, there is a value conflict be- tween the goal of relatively inexpensive electricity in the region and the goal of protecting endangered populations of salmon. INDIVIDUAL PREFERENCES AND PUBLIC VALUES Different people want different things from the oceans and rivers. In the aggregate, and through various social processes, those different desires and goals are expressed as public values. For example, members of the public differ in how they say they weigh economic against environmental concerns or in how much they think government should be involved in protecting the creatures and habitats of nature. These and other values are revealed in surveys, political choices (voting and letter-writing), and consumer choices. Two recent surveys are pertinent to attempts to measure how people value salmon and measures to protect or rehabilitate them. The first, a forestry-related survey, was completed in the fall of 1991 by faculty at Oregon State University (Steel et al. 1992, 19931. It polled a representative sample of national and Oregon publics about natural-resource issues, including fisheries. The second is the

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 117 Western Rangelands Survey, conducted in the spring of 1993 (Steel and Brunson 1993), a national and regional telephone survey. For each survey, about two- thirds of sampled households responded. More than 2,000 responded to the forestry survey, and more than 1,300 to the rangelands survey. Data presented in Table 5-1, from the 1991 forestry and 1993 rangelands surveys, indicate values toward salmon, salmon-habitat protection, and protec- tion of endangered species shared widely in both national and Oregon samples. The data indicate regional support and even stronger national support for protec- tion of salmon and critical habitat associated with salmon. Less than a majority supported setting aside endangered-species laws. In the 1991 OSU survey of natural-resource and forestry issues, respondents were asked to select their own positions on a scale regarding the importance of managing for environmental and economic considerations (Table 5-21. Nearly half who responded favored an equal balance between environmental and eco- nomic components in natural-resource management. However, 42% of the na- tional sample and 37% of the Oregon sample expressed a preference for an environmental perspective. The data from the two surveys suggest public values that support protection for wildlife, salmon, and other fish on public lands. The groups that most strongly favor protection include urban residents, younger people, women, environmen- tal-group members, and respondents who report that they go fishing often (Table 5-33. Among Oregon residents, the majority surveyed support greater efforts to protect wildlife habitat and salmon, but at proportions slightly lower than respon- dents of the nation as a whole. There are a few notable exceptions, however: the oldest groups, men, and people who depend on the ranching and timber industry for their livelihoods tend to favor extractive uses of natural resources. The differences by age could be explained by either a generational shift or the tendency of people to become less environmentally conscious as they age and assume larger financial obligations. Longitudinal studies, however, suggest that the age differences reflect a societal shift in the direction of stronger support for environmental values. lIOW SALMON ARE VALUED Surveys estimate the range and depth of public opinion, which might or might not be well informed by scientific appraisals of the value of natural re- sources. From a scientific perspective, wild salmon populations are an example of an ecosystem's natural capital. Like any capital asset, natural capital embodies value in its two components: the stock and the flow of benefits provided by that stock. The stock of wild salmon provides a flow of benefits in the form of reproductive services, genetic diversity, habitat nourishment, and food for wild- life and humans. Our greatest success has been in designing incentives to capture the flow of human-food benefits from wild salmon populations. Our correspond

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 119 TABLE 5-2 Economic Versus Environmental Tradeoffs: National and Oregon Samples Compared Many natural resource management issues involve trade-offs between natural environment conditions (wildlife, old growth forests) and economic considerations (employment, tax revenues). "Where would you locate yourself on the following scale concerning these issues?" National (%) Oregon (%) "The highest priority should be given to maintaining natural 42 environmental conditions even if there are negative economic consequences." "Both environmental and economic factors should be given 47 equal priority in forest management policy." "The highest priority should be given to economic considerations ever if there are negative environmental consequences." 37 44 19 Source: Steel et al. 1992. ing failure has been in protecting the flow of indirect and nonhuman benefits. One way to present the salmon problem is to say that the value of the Pacific Northwest's salmon-capital asset has depreciated over time as its productivity has declined (Alkire 19931. A major problem is that the market, which we rely on for signals about the status of resources, does not account for the full range of costs and benefits of environmental resources, such as salmon. That is called a market distortion. When such market distortions exist, some resources are underpriced and overused, and others overpriced and underused. Salmon's total value has three parts: direct value (e.g., catching wild salmon for food), indirect value (e.g., the contribution of genetic diversity to reproduc- tion), and option value (e.g., the future contribution of wild salmon to fishing, future genetic diversity, or having wild populations in the future, or combinations of future alternativesJ. Wild salmon's existence value is the intrinsic value that people place on simply knowing that wild populations exist or on supporting stewardship of wild populations as a bequest to future generations (Pearce and Turner 1990, Pearce 19931. Direct values are easiest to calculate because they are amenable to quantifi- cation through expression in money exchange. They include the subsistence value of salmon for food and the commodity value of salmon in market exchange. The latter is the most usual measure of salmon value because monetary measures are at hand. Salmon has commodity value to fishers, processors, and distributors; restaurants, suppliers, and boatbuilders; and tour operators, fishing guides, and charter boat operators, and others who market either salmon or the privilege of trying to capture or view salmon. Further direct value is added through the

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120 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TABLE 5-3 National and Oregon Support for Protection of Salmon and Wildlife on Federal Timber and Rangelandsa To Agree 1991: "Greater protection should be given to fish and wildlife habitats on federal forest lands."b National % Agree 1993: "Greater protection should be given to :fish such as salmon in rangelands."C Oregon National Oregon Gender Women 86 64 84 65* Men 71 44 69 53 Age Cohort 18-29 years 88 55 87 60 30-45 years 83 61 85 59 46-60 years 68 47 72 57 61 plus years 64 47 63 47 Residence Urban 79 63 78 63 * Rural 73 52 69 51 Interest Environmental group 84 76 84 77 member Timber/ranching dependent 60 48 65 43 Outdoor Recreation Fishing 80 57 80 84 No fishing 76 50 74 51 aDifferences noted by * are significant at p < 0.01 or better based on Ad. Those marked with ~ ~ are significant at p < 0.05 or better based on Ad. All other differences are significant at p < 0.001 or better based on %2. bSource: Steel et al. 1992. CSource: Steel et al. 1993. impact of salmon-based income spent in an economy. There are estimated to be over 8,000 fulltime work years involved in the west coast salmon industry (NMFS 19951. Fishing is an important component of Oregon's coastal-community econo- mies, second only to the wood-products industry in its income impact (Radtke 19923. However, the economic contribution of salmon is declining with reduc- tions in allowable catch levels and in market prices. The direct economic value of 1993 commercial salmon fisheries is only 10% of the 1976-1993 average value. The direct economic value of 1993 recreational fisheries is 30% of the 1976- 1993 average (PFMC 19941. Indirect and option values, expressed in wild salmon's contribution to future harvest or to genetic diversity, often compete with direct values in resource

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 121 management policy. Existence values also must compete with direct values of salmon. Existence values are very important in the Pacific Northwest, probably increasingly so as salmon becomes more scarce. Many people, including some involved in commercial fishing, value salmon and the activity of fishing for salmon for nonmonetary reasons (Smith 19811.i The ideas of salmon fishing as a lifestyle for commercial fishers and of salmon fishing as recreation for anglers express existence values. Existence values also include the beauty of salmon runs and the appreciation of salmon as wildlife- values that are shared within a broader public. Option and existence values are notoriously difficult to assess in monetary terms because, for value to be assigned, people must be asked what they would be willing to pay to maintain salmon's amenity and existence values or how much they would have to be compensated to give up the amenity and existence values of salmon. Contingent valuation-the technique most com- monly used to assess option, amenity, and existence values-is difficult to ad- minister without bias and is sometimes used to disputed effect (Pearce and Turner 1990, Pearce 19933. Direct Regional Economic Value The "exvessel" value the value at the first sale of the vessel's catch-of West Coast landings of commercial salmon varies with quantity caught and price. The exvessel value of ocean-caught salmon, which was about $98 million in 1979, fell to about $12 million in 1983 with the E1 Nino depression of landings, rose to about $80 million in 1988, and fell to about $6.6 million in 1994 (PFMC l995:IV-61. Exvessel prices have also declined; reduced landings since the late 1980s have not been accompanied by increases in price. In California, prices per pound of both chinook and coho declined overall from 1988 to 1993; and in Oregon and Washington, prices have declined since 1990 (PFMC 1994~. Paradoxically, the price decline, which has exacerbated the revenue effects of low landings, is caused by an oversupply of salmon on the world market. West Coast salmon prices are not determined by catches in the Pacific Northwest but by quantities landed in Alaska and British Columbia or farmed in Norway and Chile. Com- mercial ocean landings in both Alaska and British Columbia are at historically high levels, and production of farmed salmon in Norway, Chile, and elsewhere reached 1 billion pounds in 1994, exceeding U.S. commercial landings for the first time (Johnson 199SJ. In world markets, more salmon is available now than at any time in the last 50 years. Large quantities of salmon depressed prices on world markets while continuing recessions in Japan, Europe, and the United Can indirect measure of the importance of nonmonetary benefits is the extent to which people engage in fishing even though it is not profitable (Stevens 1972, Liao and Stevens 1975, F. Smith 1973, 1979, Radtke 1992).

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22 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST States lowered demand for salmon. The near-term outlook is for continued large supplies of both captured and farmed salmon with correspondingly low salmon prices worldwide (Pacific Fishing 19941. Continued declines of commercial ocean landings and recreational ocean trips in the Pacific Northwest have caused a decline in salmon-related income. Total state-level income impacts associated with ocean commercial and recre- ational fisheries were 70% lower in 1993 (PFMC 1994) than in 1979-1988, when expectations for salmon's economic contribution to coastal economies were high. Total income generated by salmon fishing includes income to businesses that rely directly on salmon fishing for income (commercial fishers, and charter boats), marine businesses that depend indirectly on salmon fishing for income (marine suppliers), and community businesses that benefit from the infusion of salmon- generated money into the economy. Along the coast, there is a wide variation in the economic dependence on salmon and a corresponding variation in the extent to which the economic impact of the decline has been felt. The ocean's natural variability combines with human influences on biologi- cal productivity to create a high level of uncertainty about salmon yields, which generates economic uncertainty about salmon as a source of income. Fishers have adapted to the uncertainty by diversifying their fishing over species, times, and areas. Trollers who once specialized in salmon fishing now troll for albacore and might jig or set longlines for rockfish. Gillnetters fish in Alaska, as well as on the Columbia River. Some trollers and gillnetters capture a greater share of the landed value of their catch through such activities as direct marketing, custom canning, and smoking. Salmon trollers and gillnetters have also diversified to nonfishing activities. Salmon fishing combines with a number of nonfishing occupations because it is so seasonal. The recreational fishery also has diversified in response to uncertainty. Char- ter boats and individual anglers have branched out into nonsalmon species, pri- marily rockfish. Management actions have supported that change. In California, Oregon, and Washington, commercial fishing for some rockfish species has been curtailed to provide exclusive areas for recreational fishing and relieve pressures, particularly that caused by charter boats, on salmon. Diversification strategies have been hindered by regulations and license re- strictions. Shortened seasons give advantages to highly mobile fishers, but catch quotas distributed throughout the year tend to benefit local communities of fish- ers, who can subsist on small catches close to their home port, and license limita- tions restrict the movement of fishers between fisheries. Indirect and Option Values Symbolic values are poorly represented in most analyses of values and pro- cesses of valuation. Salmon have both material and symbolic or cultural impor- tance to society; they affect families, larger communities, the region, and the

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 123 nation. In this sense, the commodity values noted above are social values, and so are noncommodity values. Included in social values are the values of salmon for subsistence and nutritional health, their values for recreation and for tourism, and their spiritual values in American Indian life and ceremony. Moreover, there are important symbolic links between ethnic, community, and regional identities and salmon. Salmon have provided social continuity and heritage for many Ameri- cans the American Indian tribes and non-Indian fishing communities that de- pend on salmon fishing, the generations of sports anglers proud of their pursuits of steelhead and other salmon, the general public of the Northwest who have adopted salmon as a regional symbol, the airport shops that sell smoked salmon and salmon artifacts to tourists wanting souvenirs, and so on. Salmon are fea- tured in art and song in the Pacific Northwest to an extent shared by few other fishes anywhere (Holm 1965, Stewart 1979, Williams 1980, Jay and Matsen 1994). Salmon have symbolic value to those outside the region, as well. The heroic feats of salmon, in their long migrations from headwaters stream to ocean, led back again by long-remembered odors of their natal stream, vaulting waterfalls and dodging bears to mate and die (Hasler 1966), tattered relics of their former beauty this is one of the great sagas of animal behavior. The social values of salmon include their roles as symbols and indicators of environmental quality, such as the role of the return of salmon runs as a sign of improved water quality on the Willamette River of Oregon (Gleeson 1972, Starbird and Georgia 1972, F. J. Smith 19735. They are also both symbols and substantive foci in relation- ship to broader issues of habitat conservation, biodiversity, and the fate of threat- ened and endangered species. The biological and ecological values of salmon fit into categories of indirect and option values that are underpriced in the marketplace. Salmon are essential parts of the aquatic and riparian ecosystems that they inhabit. Young salmon are food for fish and birds. Adults bring carbon and calories from the ocean to nutrient-poor lakes and streams. The spent carcasses of adults that have spawned provide food for bears, foxes, wolves, ravens, and eagles. In other words, salmon have value beyond the human sphere and in ways only recently recognized by human institutions of North America. Biological diversity is a nonrenewable resource (Lichatowich 1992, Wilson 1992, Riddell 1993b). Its principal biological values include adaptedness in existing populations and the potential for further evolution, the maintenance of the spatial and temporal bases of production, the knowledge gained from study- ing diverse organisms, and indeed the services that organisms provide to other inhabitants of the earth, including the ecological services that support human activities. Another way to express the different types of values embodied in salmon is to consider them in the context of ecology and economics. Lichatowich (1992) distinguishes between the economies of human systems ("industrial economies"J

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24 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PA CIFIC NORTHWEST TABLE 5-4 Characteristics of Industrial and Natural Economies Industrial Economy Natural Economy Fossil fuel as primary source of energy Large, centralized production facilities (economies and monocultures) Emphasis on production (linear extraction of resource, continuous growth) External improvements and changes (humans dominate, shape course of diversity, determine scope for change) Independent spheres of economic activity (individualism) Global imbalance (greenhouse effect, holes in ozone) Solar radiation as primary source of energy Dispersed production (stability through diversity of scale, the principle of spreading risk) Emphasis on reproduction (renewable cycles, limits to growth) Internal improvements and changes (natural processes and genetic evolution) Interdependent parts (contextual) Global gas exchange (GAIA effect) Source: Lichatowich 1992. and natural systems ("natural economies") to illustrate that the two systems have different dynamics that can work to the detriment of salmon. The characteristics of industrial and natural economies are summarized in Table 5-4. The attributes of human economic systems that have encouraged growth and expansion indi- vidualism, extraction, scale economies, biological simplification have eroded the health of natural economies that rest on interdependence, renewal, dispersed production, and diversification. Resource Values and Public Choice Markets reflect some of salmon's values but not all. Many nonmarket values of salmon are not easy to measure and compare, and so management decisions concerning salmon often do not adequately reflect the importance of salmon to society; nonmarket values especially are underrepresented. As a result, decisions about resource use may not achieve societal goals. To correct the discrepancy between social values and resource use, attempts can be made to design policies that reflect the full range of resource values. International environmental agree- ments concerned with accounting for the full costs of pollution call this the "polluter pays" principle. A corresponding application of the principle to Pacific

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 125 Northwest salmon might be called the "full value" principle, incorporating the full range of wild salmon's values into decisions about its protection and use. Full value is a public, not a private, question. Private choices are made with individual preferences about products whose attributes and prices are known; however, they require well-defined property rights, which do not exist in the United States for public resources, such as salmon and navigable waterways, and are imperfect for other resources, such as groundwater and grazing lands. Conse- quently, public choices are central to the salmon problem. Public choices have to take into account many owners with multiple preferences, attributes that are not fully observable and sometimes unknown, and prices that reflect only part of the resources' full value to society. As we have seen, wild salmon have not only commodity values (represented in market prices) but many other values that remain unpriced. Unpriced resource values are easy to ignore and are often unrepresented in public decisions about environmental resources, but they are nevertheless real. The concept of full value points to the problem of "extemali- ties" the problem that some costs and benefits are beyond the accounting of the . . . . . c ec~s~on-ma~ng unit. Value Over Time and Generations As a practical matter, society's willingness to pay for resource values is an expression of living generations. But environmental resources have stock and flow benefits that extend indefinitely over time. The long time horizon (involv- ing several salmon lifetimes) raises the issue of distributing resource benefits between current and future generations. Although it is natural for members of the living generations to place greater value on present benefits and discount the value of expected future benefits, desire for resource sustainability and concern for future generations demand that expected future benefits be given greater weight than they now receive. Such discounting makes benefit-cost analysis difficult, even when the full range of values is included (Alkire 1993, Pearce and Turner 19901. One source of difficulty is that environmental variability affects the economic and scientific spheres in different ways. Environmental variability creates economic uncertainty, which causes people to discount the future more heavily, and this leads to pressures to increase rates of immediate, direct use. And environmental variability creates scientific uncertainty about biological pro- cesses, which can be perceived to call for a cautious approach and lead to pres- sures to lower rates of immediate, direct use. The resulting tension between economic and scientific responses to uncertainty adds complexity to decisions about appropriate rates of resource use. That tension is widespread in decisions concerning wild salmon in the Pacific Northwest.

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34 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST The economy of the Pacific Northwest is greatly influenced by the federal government, whose policies have been a shaping force in regional affairs since the Great Depression. With Grand Coulee and Bonneville dams, two major projects of the 1930s, the federal government transformed the regional economy. By the time water-resource development in the Columbia basin ended in the 1970s, three-fourths of the power in the Northwest came from falling water, and electricity rates were the lowest in the nation. The New Deal in the Northwest was anchored in the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA), a federal agency created in 1941 to market the enormous output of the national government's dams on the Columbia. But BPA soon became a regional economic force whose influence was rooted in the Federal Columbia River Power System, which generated nearly half the electricity pro- duced in Washington, Oregon, Montana, and Idaho. Although the dams them- selves are operated by the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation and the Army Corps of Engineers, BPA power sales have usually governed river operations. BPA is largely invisible to the retail consumer, marketing more than half its power to utilities, which supply businesses and households. Two-fifths of BPA's sales are made directly to Northwest industrial customers, mostly large aluminum refiners, which account for 40% of the nation's aluminum production capacity. From the turn of the century, when steam-driven turbines came into service, until 1970, electric power was a story of increasing scale and declining cost. Growth in demand brought decreasing cost per unit sold, and growth benefited producer and consumer alike. In the 1970s, however, the benefits of growth vanished as costs of construction, borrowed money, and environmental damage all rose ominously. In the Pacific Northwest, industry leaders and their critics turned to the federal government for solutions. The product of their political labors was the Northwest Power Act of 1980. The act was designed to solve a set of social problems by technological means. As demand for power grew during the 1970s, more power plants seemed necessary to utilities. The utilities proposed federal legislation to enable them to build more plants in 1977. Yet citizen activists, whose voices were growing rapidly in power and influence, argued that energy conservation could meet the demand for power at lower environmental and economic cost. The search for compromise took more than two years. Toward the end of the search, American Indian tribes and commercial and recreational fishers demanded that the damage to the Columbia's fish runs be repaired. Rather than choosing among partially conflicting claims, Congress sought to accommodate them all. The result was a complex piece of legislation, whose execution has taken turns unanticipated by those who fashioned the act's key compromises. The Columbia River Basin has been called the largest experiment in ecosystem rehabilitation in the world (Lee 1993a). Underlying this venture is the value underwritten by the Pacific North- west Electric Power and Planning Conservation Act of 1980 (Northwest Power Act), which sets forth the principle that hydropower users are responsible for

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 135 protecting and restoring fish and wildlife resources that are adversely affected by the federal Columbia River power system. The Northwest Power Act tried to reorganize the indirect and direct values of salmon by making the cost of protect- ing and restoring the salmon fishery a cost of doing business to be shared by all electric-power consumers in the region and by according equitable treatment to anadromous fish when compared with power production as a goal (Wilkinson and Conner 1983, Lee 1993a ). By 1982, when the Northwest Power Act was in the early stages of imple- mentation, the expected power shortage that had motivated its enactment had evaporated. Demand was far below expectations because the economy was in recession. Rates were rising rapidly, however, to pay for the costs of power plants already being built. Energy conservation gained plausibility. Rising rates and falling demand meant that instead of a deficit, there was a surplus of power through the 1980s. Instead of a financing mechanism to build new power plants, the Northwest Power Act became the blueprint for a laboratory of energy and environmental conservation. The regional stewardship framed by the act revolves about the Northwest Power Planning Council and the two plans it has promulgated. Chartered by the four Pacific Northwest states, the council is composed of two members from each state, appointed by the governors under procedures established by state law. Under some circumstances, the council has the unusual authority to restrict or redirect the actions of federal agencies. The council is in effect an interstate compact, a form of government organization that shares both state and federal authority. Council policies are embodied in two regional plans, both of which are products of extensive public discussion.2 The council's first task is to formulate a plan to guide electric-power devel- opment, including energy conservation. Three versions of the plan have been issued, the most recent one in 1991. Their central premise is regional cost-effec- tiveness planning that minimizes costs across the Pacific Northwest's many utili- ties, a premise that the region's fragmented industry would not naturally follow. The regional approach emphasizes a portfolio perspective: the objective is not a single power plant or conservation program, but a set of available alternatives. The least costly options should be exercised, and costs should be reckoned on a regional, life-cycle basis. Second, the council sought to bring back the salmon of the Columbia River Although public participation declined as electric-power rates stabilized in the middle 1980s. many divergent interests are at stake in the energy-dependent sectors of the economy and in the environmental management of the Columbia River Basin? so a broad spectrum of observers contin- ues to pay attention. Thus, the pluralist approximation to democracy characterized by one political scientist as majority rule by the minority that cares- arguably remains valid. Nearly all observers agree that the council s plans articulate a public interest that goes beyond the claims of utilities or other interest groups.

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36 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST Basin. The Northwest Power Act articulated a policy that is easily stated but difficult to define and pursue: electric-power consumers are obliged to fund, through the BPA, a program "to protect, mitigate Esic], and enhance fish and wildlife to the extent affected by the development and operation of any hydro- electric project of the Columbia River and its tributaries." That mandate pro- duced a wide-ranging effort that was specified in the program created by the Northwest Power Planning Council. The program has been a systematic but not coordinated attack. The design calls for action at all the principal points at which human actions affect the fate of salmon: during fishing, at hatcheries and spawn- ing grounds, and along migration routes in the mainstem river. But the limited authority conferred by Congress on the council has made coordination of the rehabilitation effort indirect at best. The Northwest Power Act limits the contribution of electric-power ratepayers to damages attributable to hydroelectric power generation. In 1986, the council drew on anthropological and historical studies of the wilderness Columbia and legal analyses of the contemporary river and set the responsibility of present-day ratepayers at 8-11 million adult fish per year. The loss of so many fish, beyond the remaining 2.5 million returning to the river, could be ascribed to hydroelectric power generation. The practical meaning of the responsibility is unclear, how- ever, in that the biological capability of the remaining habitat and technically feasible hatchery sites might fall well below 8 million fish. More specific guidance was formulated in the 1987 version of the Northwest Power Planning Council's Columbia River Basin program, which set out an ecosystem-scale approach. The invoking of the Endangered Species Act (ESA), beginning in 1990, forced a rethinking of ecosystem-scale plans to rescue stocks nearing extinction. In light of the continuing difficulties of responding to the requirements of the ESA in the Pacific Northwest, however, an understanding of the earlier ecosystem approach remains relevant. The most tangible objective of that plan was an "interim" goal of doubling salmon populations over an unspeci- fied time. That goal was "a signal that the program is a long-term, serious effort to solve complex problems not amenable to quick-fix remedies." Implicit in those words were times of biological significance-several generations of salmon. The council program emphasized learning and sustainability to limit cost and risk. Rapid learning including effective evaluation would lower costs. Aim- ing at sustainable increases in fish populations implied practices that lowered risks to salmon gene pools. And avoiding an explicit deadline to achieve dou- bling permitted time for learning how to rebuild fish populations in a biologically sound and economically sensible way. The heart of the ecosystem approach lay in a 4-year process known as system planning. System planning involved trying to think about the interactions among the hundreds of activities that affect the abundance and health of the basin's fish and wildlife, including changes outside the scope of the program, such as land use and shifts in water rights. System planning emphasized the conservation of

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 137 the genetic heritage of the salmon population but also envisioned rebuilding populations rapidly by artificial means to enable resumption or expansion of fishing. The principal hope lay in supplementation, a technique of releasing hatchery-bred juveniles into underpopulated streams before the fish migrate to sea.3 Supplementation was thought to combine some of the advantages of hatch- ery culture, especially the high survival of young fish before they are released, with some of the strengths of natural production because the selective forces that determine which fish survive after release are largely natural. Supplementation thus promised effective use of existing and new hatchery capacity and the hope of rebuilding wild stocks in their native streams and at population levels that would . I. . permit Its ring. The keystone of the Columbia River Basin program is an augmentation of the flow of the river called the water budget. Before the dams were built, flow was heavily concentrated in the spring, when mountain snow rapidly melts. Spring floods earned juvenile salmon to the ocean. The trip is made much longer now by the slower flow of water in reservoirs than in the unimpounded river. The slowdown exposes juvenile fish to predators for a longer time. In addition, salmon must make a physiological changeover in going from fresh to salt water; if arrival in salt water is delayed, the fish might revert to a freshwater constitu- tion, stop growing, and never reach legal-catch size. For years, the fish and wildlife managers and American Indian tribes had requested higher flows in the springtime migration season. But the requests carried no authority, and the dams, controlled by utilities and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, were usually run to optimize power revenues. The water budget is a more generous compromise for the Columbia River than for the Snake River because the upper Columbia discharges more water, and a much smaller fraction of its water is diverted for irrigation. In practice, even the water dedicated to the water budget in the Snake River drainage has often been 3The term supplementation has been used in various ways. Some view it as an effort to augment natural production by complementing seeding of natural spawners with fish bred and cultured in hatcheries to a stage before the smolt stage, thus filling vacancies in natural habitat. This differs from more usual hatchery practice in that the natural habitat, with all its natural-selective forces, provides for at least part of the growth of the young fish to small stage, rather than a hatchery. The NPPC's system planning approach seems to have leaned toward that meaning. Others view supple- mentation as any augmentation of populations in natural production areas with adults, eggs, fry, or juveniles, including smolt releases. Little information exists on supplementation under either mean- ing (Chapter 12, Bowles 1995) and its use has been condemned (White et al. 1995). Unknowns include long-term effects on fitness of wild demes (chapters 6 and 12) and various ecological, behavioral, and management consequences of supplementation and outplanting procedures on natu- rally produced cohorts (chapters 11 and 12). Supplementation efforts, such as those in the Yakima basin (Fast et al. 1991), should be undertaken on modest scales with adaptive management, as described in Chapter 12 and by Bowles (1995) and White et al. (1995), until their effects and effectiveness are better understood.

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38 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST unavailable. The biological benefits of the water budget are hard to see, in part because it is small in comparison with natural fluctuations. The Power Planning Council program identified measures to be taken by the American Indian tribes and government agencies that exercise management re- sponsibility for fish and wildlife, by hydropower project operators and regulators, and by those charged with land and water management. Most of the program measures have been funded by BPA, at a total annual cost in 1994 of about $350 million (see Box 9-1) about 1% of the agency's annual revenues. Although modest from that perspective, the program's funding is unprecedented for fish and wildlife, as is its spatial scope overlapping four states and covering a land area the size of France. About 554 million is spent directly by BPA through contracts with the American Indian tribes and fish and wildlife agencies. The remainder of the cost is incurred as lost revenues earnings foregone because water is released to benefit fish rather than power-users. In 1990, the federal presence changed course sharply, as petitions were filed to list five populations of Columbia River salmon under the terms of the ESA. These salmon petitions raised the specter of severe economic dislocations be- cause the federal government's duty to protect an endangered species supersedes its role as operator of economically important facilities, such as irrigation sys- tems and hydroelectric-power dams. By 1994, it seemed clear that the battle over the salmon of the Columbia will lead to substantial modifications in how the river is operated. Whether those modifications succeed in resuscitating the endangered stocks, the federal presence has fundamentally altered the treatment of fish and wildlife in the Pacific Northwest. American Indian treaty rights, ignored for more than a century, are widely accepted. More than 40,000 stream-miles in the Columbia River Basin have been put off limits to hydropower development. Fishery- resource management agencies in tribal, state, and federal governments exercise substantial influence in the policies and budgetary choices of BPA. There have been important changes in power-system operation and planning in response to the Columbia River Basin program. The impact of those measures can be gauged by different yardsticks: in lost power revenues of over $150 million per year in 1993 or in power resources displaced or subordinated to fishery protection (the equivalent of a medium-size coal plant). An effort to achieve balance among competing values and interests is em- bodied in institutions that provide regional frameworks for resource management given the large spatial scale of the life cycles of salmon and the habitats that they need. The cost is about $100 per adult salmon in the Columbia drainage. "Even though economists assessing the costs and benefits of comparable programs have arrived at the same approach as the one set forth in the Northwest Power Act, the sheer magnitude of the dollar figure fuels debate" (Lee 1993a:503. Moreover, the effects have so far been disappointing, particularly with respect to the listing of Snake River runs as endangered species:

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS As in the case of energy conservation, salmon rehabilitation has broken new ground. As also with the efforts in electric power, it is not clear that what is being done will be enough to achieve a workable, sustainable balance. The river is in an unnatural, partly managed condition. Increased flows in the spring the remedy recommended by the fisheries advocates may or may not suffice to rescue the salmon. The mounting disillusion with hatcheries demon- strates the fragility of our understanding and the unexpected, even perverse effects of earlier attempts to mitigate damage (Lee 1993a:50). FISHERIES MANAGEMENT INSTITUTIONS 139 As noted above, there is a long history of institutions and organizations devoted to management of salmon catches at the state level. The fragmentation that ensued contributed to the difficulties in managing migratory species through- out their ranges. The Magnuson Fishery Conservation and Management Act (MFCMA), together with the Pacific Salmon Treaty of 1985 and the joint man- agement of fishing by states and American Indian tribes, has created a fishing- management regime that embraces all the fisheries that target salmon throughout their migratory range. These institutions set up new arenas for conflict and for cooperation. This section discusses the regional fishery management system set up by the 1976 MFCMA and the international regime set up by the Pacific Salmon Treaty. Chapters 10 and 11 discuss fishing management in greater detail. The MFCMA is ore piece of enabling legislation for regional response in marine and anadromous fisheries management. It expanded federal jurisdiction over fisheries to the zone 3-200 mi from shore. The Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC), one of eight regional councils created by the MFCMA, is designed to be a venture in participatory, decentralized, cooperative-management planning based on scientific and user-group advice and dependent on federal- agency approval and implementation. PFMC has 16 voting members, including state and federal fishery agencies in the region and gubernatorial appointees who are supposed to represent the balance of state and fishery interests and to be knowledgeable about the fisheries. PPMC also coordinates state fish- and w~ld- life-agency policy concerning anadromous fishes; California, Oregon, Idaho, and Washington are the states involved. The regional management council system established by the MFCMA might have been a model for the Northwest Power Planning Council (Wilkinson and Conner 1983:56, footnote 212~. In recent years, the entire regional fishery management-council system has come under attack because of alleged "capture" by special interests in the fisher- ies (e.g., Safina 1994, see also discussion in NRC 19941. However, the councils provide the basis not only of regional coordination of fishery-management efforts but also of effective user participation in fishery management. PFMC has been unusually successful in the use of participation by members of the fishing indus- try in the planning process in ways that enhanced both that process and the

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140 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST effectiveness of management, especially compliance (Henna, in press). PFMC has, however, had a history of failing to meet escapement goals, which suggests that it, like other fishery-management agencies, tends toward "risk-prone" deci- sion-making in the context of scientific uncertainty and political pressures (cf. Ludwig et al. 1993, Rosenberg et al. 19933. A fourth important value arena concerns international salmon management, namely, the 1985 Pacific Salmon Treaty between the governments of the United States and Canada (Agreement January 1985, Annex IV amended May 1991), the culmination of two decades of negotiations and fish wars. The treaty is the mechanism for balancing catch allocations between the salmon-producing nation and the catching nation. Northward-migrating chinook from British Columbia streams are caught in Alaskan waters; Columbia River chinook are caught off British Columbia; and Fraser River sockeye are caught by U.S. fishers in U.S. waters or beyond the 200-mi limit. The only prior cooperative-management agreement was for sockeye and pink salmon from the Fraser River and nearby areas the "Fraser Panel area"- under the "Sockeye Commission" (International Pacific Salmon Fisheries Com- mission). (Until 1977, the United States was party to the International North Pacific Fisheries Convention of 1953, for high-seas protection of salmon; it with- drew when the 200-mi zone of extended jurisdiction was created.' The 1985 treaty set up a new Pacific Salmon Commission. A scale of management that reflects the full range of salmon movement calls for that kind of international institution (Morgan 1987), but the regime is not guaranteed to work. The prin- ciples of the 1985 treaty are to optimize production of salmon and to achieve equity in the number of fish intercepted by the two countries. The main stum- bling block is a dispute over how to ensure that each country gets either fish or compensation equivalent to its salmon production. Chapter 10 discusses the difficulties in getting agreement between fishery interests in Alaska and the lower 48 states on how to negotiate with Canada. Aboriginal fishing rights further complicate the situation. Biodiversity and Endangered Species Recognition of the value of biodiversity (or the cost of extinction of species) led to the Endangered Species Act (ESA) of 1973, which, like the Marine Mam- mal Protection Act of 1976, made statutory policy relevant to the salmon problem in the Pacific Northwest. Therein is the beginning of the current crisis. On April 2 1990, the Shoshone-Bannock tribe of Idaho petitioned NMFS to list Snake River sockeye as an endangered species; it was closely followed by environmen- tal groups petitioning to list the spring, summer, and fall runs of chinook salmon in the Snake River and coho salmon in the lower Columbia River. In stating that economics may not play a role in the decision to list a species as endangered or threatened, the law reflects a social decision that preservation of species is a

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 141 categorical imperative.4 Thus, by congressional act, a major change in percep- tion occurred: flora and fauna deemed to be endangered or threatened were lifted from the utilitarian values realm of decision in terms of tradeoffs or costs and benefits and into the extrinsic "rights-based" realm of categorical need for protec- tion (Thompson et al. 1994~. Not only do different human groups have rights in relation to the claims of others, but nonhuman biological organisms have rights. Those rights might conflict with human claims, even as the merits that we impute to the nonhuman world shift our notions of what is valuable. Compensation, Liability, and the Law The question of who should pay for salmon rehabilitation (Berry and Rettig 1994) is another complex value issue that affects the nature of our stewardship over salmon in the Pacific Northwest. Law interacts with politics to result in decisions about rights and liabilityand about claims and compensation. Numer- ous important legal questions are involved; we offer only a few illustrative ex- amples here. One is the balance of federal and state powers over river-flow management, a question that affects dam management in the Northwest. A May 1994 U.S. Supreme Court decision (PUD No. 1 of Jefferson County et al. v. Washington Department of Ecology et al. J allowed the state of Washington to set minimal water- flow levels for salmon protection. (An embedded legal question was the relationship between water quality and water quantity.) Another is the extent to which the public-trust doctrine, which applies to all navigable or tidal waterways in the United States, can be used to protect water flows and quality required for salmon (Wilkinson 1980, Johnson 1989, Johnson et al. 1992~. The issue of tribal treaty rights and their relationships to endangered species issues might be noted as well. Who pays for mitigation and for compensation, and who should be compen- sated?s In the case of salmon, mitigation involves project design and "retrofit- ting" to minimize harmful effects of projects on fish; compensation has come to mean artificial propagation (with its own unintended and harmful consequences) to make up for losses due to dams, irrigation, and other practices. Increasingly, however, policies will require mitigation and compensation for social and eco- nomic losses (Berry and Rettig 1994~. For example, what about irrigators in the upper Snake River Basin whose irrigation water is lost through flow augmenta- tion? What about salmon fishers in the lower Columbia River whose boats, gill Economics can, however, be considered in (lesignating critical habitats (Hymen and Wernstedt 1991). Current debates over the ESA indicate that this categorical imperative is not universally supported. 5"Mitigation refers to measures taken during planning, construction, operation, or implementation of a policy in order to avoid or reduce adverse effects. In contrast, compensation refers to payments made to offset losses that occur despite mitigation efforts" (Berry and Rettig 1994:4).

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42 UPSTREAM: SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST nets, and gill-net rights are suddenly worthless? What about power consumers asked to pay higher rates for electricity? One newer aspect will be the question of whether private-property rights have been taken away the "takings" issue. That is a subject of intense activity, with changing definitions and understandings that make "equity" an issue that can no longer be ignored. Salmon rehabilitation also poses new questions and levels of uncertainty about the future of investments (Berry and Rettig 1994:111. It is likely to result in more litigation and increased pressure on governments for compensation. VALUES AND ANALYSIS The values in policy conflicts are couched in arguments about fact. Conse- quently, scientists, purveyors of fact and scientific interpretation, are actors in salmon-policy debate. Although the methods of science are objective, scientists do have values that play important roles in the policy process (NRC 1992b). Among the strengths, and potential weaknesses, of science and engineering is the widely held value placed on rational, deductive thinking and discovery of truth by the testing and observation of highly simplified versions of the natural world. In the extreme, this can lead to mechanistic and deterministic views of nature that obscure flux and indeterminacy (Botkin 1990, Norgaard 1994~. It also can be used to support an unwarranted dichotomy between humans and nature (with humans being factored out of the equation as a source of complicating noise). The problems inherent in applying reductionist science to problems that are multidimensional, changing, and seen as different by many different groups (Rittel and Webber 1973, Wilson and Morren 1990) are central to the salmon situation. Economic analyses can be biased by a narrow focus on monetary benefits and costs. Economic efficiency as a policy objective might not capture the full range of extrinsic nonmonetary benefits and costs and is only one of many pos- sible objectives. Although properly done benefit-cost analyses should reflect, to the greatest extent possible, all the known benefits and costs of a particular action, nonmonetary as well as monetary, in practice this is not reliably the case. Even within scientific disciplines, one can find differences. In ecology, for example, there are biotechnologists versus bioconservatives (Sagoff 19921. The biotechnologist values tend to accept control of nature for the benefit of human society and view the proper role of the science of ecology as prediction and control. The bioconservative values are more concerned with protecting nature in its "uncontrolled state" and might believe that "nature knows best." Those differing but equally science-based approaches can lead to profound differences in how people weigh interventions e.g., in the salmon context, barge transport versus dam removal or hatcheries versus reducing mortality and restoring habitat. Any understanding of goals and values requires an interdisciplinary approach to analysis and policy evaluation because of the wide range of values and per

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VALUES AND INSTITUTIONS 143 spectives inherent in the problem and in planning for rehabilitation or recovery (Hymen et al. 1993:13. For several reasons, attempted solutions often resort to narrow definitions of the problem. The result is usually more conflict. Trying to force all goals and values into some sort of quantifiable form within the same decision framework is often the basis of "scientific management," as FEMAT (1993:VII-18' described for responses to the environmental movement on the part of the U.S.D.A. Forest Service. The basis of the Forest Land Planning and Management Act, like many other legislative attempts to deal with problems, is the notion that rationality is the product of comprehensive assessments and plan- ning whose goal is to increase the accountability of management decisions to public values, science, and ecological reality. Indeed, many approaches to envi- ronmental management, including federal legislation, have this rational view- point. But conflicts over natural resources continue and perhaps are increasing despite and sometimes, perversely, because of the quantifying, rational approach. As noted in the FEMAT socioeconomic environmental impact statement, adding more rows to the linear program models did not lead to politically responsive decisions (FEMAT 1993:VII-209. Sometimes the problem stems from the persistence of narrow definitions of value of natural resources (such as timber and salmon) as commercial commodi- ties. Often one finds isolated rural communities pitted against an urban leisure class or rare and endangered wild species despite facts that might point to com- mon interests or the possibility of common solutions. Organizations can also have institutional commitments to programs that make it difficult to take a flex- ible approach to problem-solving. Moreover, a problem can stem from institu- tional inertia in dealing with the fact that nature is often indeterminate and prone more to surprises and chaotic lurches than to calibrated and predictable responses to human attempts at "sustained yield" management. Problems like these emphasize the need to develop more appropriate inter- disciplinary approaches. The standard effort usually brings natural scientists and economists together (sometimes not for long, splitting them into independent working groups). Its history is one of disappointment and failure and includes recent attempts to use interdisciplinary approaches to the Pacific Northwest salmon problem (Hymen et al. 19933. A more interactive interdisciplinary ap- proach that incorporates the expertise required to deal with nonbiological and nonmonetary issues is required. The idea of rebuilding the salmon runs of an industrialized ecosystem is heroically optimistic a hope that might not have occurred to anyone except those who had rehabilitated the Willamette River Basin in Oregon or Lake Wash- ington near Seattle. Those environmental successes came through the disciplined execution of the planning paradigm that has been fitfully applied to the much larger Columbia River Basin. The extension of those experiences to the multijurisdic-tional, multifunctional situations of the Pacific Northwest would require coordinated action and learning on a new, larger scale a scale on which

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44 UPSTREA SALMON AND SOCIETY IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST planning and action have been tried but have not been successful. A more explicit appreciation of the values, interests, and institutions involved in this undertaking is required. Chapter 13 explores this further and urges constructive change in institutions that include cooperative management, bioregional gover- nance, and adaptive management.