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UPSTREAM i Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest Committee on Protection and Management of Pacific Northwest Anadromous Salmonids Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology Commission on Life Sciences NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1996

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Ave., N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy f Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting, of members of the National Academy of Sci- ences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The project was supported by Department of Commerce, National Oceanic anti Atmospheric Administration under grant #NA26FH0208. Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Upstream: salmon and society in the Pacific Northwest / Committee on Protection and Management of Pacific Northwest Anadromous Salmonids, Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology, Commission on Life Sciences. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references (p. ) and index. ISBN 0-309-05325-0 1. Pacific salmon Northwest, Pacific. 2. Fishery conservation- Social aspects Northwest, Pacific. 3. Pacific salmon fisheries- Pacific Northwest Management. 4. Pacific salmon Effect of habitat modification on Northwest, Pacific. I. National Research Council (U.S.). Committee on Protection and Management of Pacific Northwest Anadromous Salmonids. QL638.S2U67 1996 597'.55 dc20 95-51662 CIP Copyright 1996 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Cover art: Midnight Run by Ray Troll, Ketchikan~ Alaska Printed in the United States of America

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COMMITTEE ON PROTECTION AND MANAGEMENT OF PACIFIC NORTHWEST ANADROMOUS SALMONIDS John J. Magnuson (Chair), University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin Fred W. Allendorf, University of Montana, Missoula, Montana Robert L. Beschta, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon Peter A. Bisson, Weyerhaeuser Company, Tacoma, Washington Hampton L. Carson, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii Donald W. Chapman, Don Chapman Consultants, Inc., Boise, Idaho Susan S. Hanna, Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon Anne R. Kapuscinski, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, Minnesota Kai N. Lee, Williams College, Williamstown, Massachusetts Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Bonnie J. McCay, Rutgers, The State University, New Brunswick, New Jersey Gordon M. MacNabb, independent consultant, Vernon, British Columbia, Canada Thomas P. Quinn, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Brian E. Riddell, Department of Fisheries and Oceans, Pacific Biological Station, Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada Earl E. Werner, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan Staff David J. Policansky, Project Director Tania Williams, Research Associate Norman Grossblatt, Editor Adrienne Davis, Senior Project Assistant Sponsor Department of Commerce . . . zzz

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BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Paul G. Risser (Chair), Oregon State University, Corvallis, Oregon Michael J. Bean, Environmental Defense Fund, Washington, D.C. Eula gingham, University of Cincinnati, Cincinnati, Ohio Paul Busch, Malcom Pirnie, Inc., White Plains, New York Edwin H. Clark II, Clean Sites, Inc., Alexandria, Virginia Allan H. Conney, Rutgers University, Piscataway, New Jersey Ellis Cowling, North Carolina State University, Raleigh, North Carolina George P. Daston, The Procter & Gamble Co., Cincinnati, Ohio Diana Freckman, Colorado State University, Ft. Collins, Colorado Robert A. Frosch, Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts Raymond C. Loehr, The University of Texas, Austin, Texas Gordon Orians, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Geoffrey Place, Hilton Head, South Carolina David P. Rall, Washington, D.C. Leslie A. Real, Indiana University, Bloomington, Indiana Kristin Shrader-Frechette, University of South Florida, Tampa, Florida Burton H. Singer, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey Margaret Strand, Bayh, Connaughton and Malone, Washington, D.C. Gerald Van Belle, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington Bailus Walker, Jr., Howard University, Washington, D.C. Terry F. Yosie, E. Bruce Harrison Co., Washington, D.C. Stay James J. Reisa, Director David J. Policansky, Associate Director and Program Director for Natural Resources and Applied Ecology Carol A. Maczka, Program Director for Toxicology and Risk Assessment Lee R. Paulson, Program Director for Information Systems and Statistics Raymond A. Wassel, Program Director for Environmental Sciences and _ . . I_ng~neer~ng IV

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COMMISSION ON LIFE SCIENCES Thomas D. Pollard (Chair), The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland Frederick R. Anderson, Cadwalader, Wickersham & Taft, Washington, D.C. John C. Bailar III, University of Chicago, Chicago, Illinois John E. Burris, Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, Massachusetts Michael T. Clegg, University of California, Riverside, California Glenn A. Crosby, Washington State University, Pullman, Washington Ursula W. Goodenough, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri Susan E. Leeman, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, Massachusetts Richard E. Lenski, Michigan State University, East Lansing, Michigan Thomas E. Lovejoy, Smithsonian Institution, Washington, D.C. Donald R. Mattison, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Joseph E. Murray, Wellesley Hills, Massachusetts Edward E. Penhoet, Chiron Corp., Emeryville, California Emil A. Pfitzer, Research Institute for Fragrance Materials, Hackensack, New Jersey Malcolm C. Pike, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California Henry C. Pitot III, University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin Jonathan M. Samet, The Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland Harold M. Schmeck Jr., North Chatham, Massachusetts Carla J. Shatz, University of California, Berkeley, California John L. Vandeberg, Southwestern Foundation for Biomedical Research, San Antonio, Texas Paul Gilman, Executive Director v

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OTHER RECENT REPORTS OF THE BOARD ON ENVIRONMENTAL STUDIES AND TOXICOLOGY Carcinogens and Anticarcinogens in the Human Diet: A Comparison of Naturally Occurring and Synthetic Substances (1996) Science and the Endangered Species Act (1995) Wetlands: Characteristics and Boundaries (1995) Biologic Markers in Urinary Toxicology (1995) Review of EPA's Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (three reports, 1994- 1995) Science and Judgment in Risk Assessment (1994) Ranking Hazardous Sites for Remedial Action (1994) Pesticides in the Diets of Infants and Children (1993) Issues in Risk Assessment (1993) Setting Priorities for Land Conservation (1993) Protecting Visibility in National Parks and Wilderness Areas (1993) Biologic Markers in Immunotoxicology (1992) Dolphins and the Tuna Industry (1992) Environmental Neurotoxicology ~ 1992) Hazardous Materials on the Public Lands (1992) Science and the National Parks (1992) Animals as Sentinels of Environmental Health Hazards (1991) Assessment of the U.S. Outer Continental Shelf Environmental Studies Program,Volumes I-IV ~ 1991 - 1993) Human Exposure Assessment for Airborne Pollutants (1991) Monitoring Human Tissues for Toxic Substances ~ 1991 ~ Rethinking the Ozone Problem in Urban and Regional Air Pollution (1991) Decline of the Sea Turtles (1990) Tracking Toxic Substances at Industrial Facilities (1990) Biologic Markers in Pulmonary Toxicology (1989) Biologic Markers in Reproductive Toxicology (1989) Copies of these reports may be ordered from the National Academy Press (8009 624-6242 (202) 334-3313 Vl

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Preface The Committee on Protection and Management of Pacific Northwest Anadromous Salmon was formed in 1992 under the auspices of the National Research Council's Board on Environmental Studies and Toxicology (BEST). The committee was formally charged as follows: The committee will review information concerning the seven species of the genus Oncorhynchus in the Pacific Northwest. The review will focus on the population status, habitat, and environmental requirements of the stocks. It will include analysis of information about their genetics, history, management, and production by hatcheries, as well as federal, state, tribal, and other management regimes. The committee will evalu- ate options for improving the prospects for long-term sustainability of the stocks, and will consider economic and social implications of such changes. The committee will undertake the following general tasks: Assess the state of the stocks. This assessment will include a consid- eration of the nature of local adaptations of stocks to environmental conditions. More specific questions will probably include the degree to which the adaptations are due to phenotypic plasticity versus genetic differences, the nature and appropriate definition of a stock, the value of a diversity of stocks for preserving evolutionary potential, and which stocks are in danger of extinction or of becoming irretrievably mixed with other stocks. Analyze the causes of decline. This analysis will consider all stages of . . V11

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. . . V111 PREFACE the life history of the seven species: spawning and nursery habitat, downstream migration, life at sea, and the return upriver to spawn. Analyze options for intervention (management). Again, this will in volve all stages of the life history. It will include a consideration of previous activities, such as the Pacific Northwest Power Planning Council's program in adaptive management; federal, state, and local regulations and enhancements; and other activities. The analysis will include some consideration of socioeconomic costs and benefits. Composition of this "salmon" committee was especially broad; it had to be to encompass the geographic, scientific, and human breadth of the issues in the continuing interactions in the Pacific Northwest between salmon and humans. Members included experts with general and specific knowledge of genetics, fish ecology, stream ecology, fish biology, inland waters and ocean science, anthro- pology, social science, political science, international fisheries and transboundary issues, habitat and habitat rehabilitation, hydrology, hatcheries, dams, fishery management, and fishery science. The committee's biographies are in Appendix A. I especially appreciated the degree to which the committee was able to frame and synthesize the many facets of the "salmon problem." I continue to be amazed by the high quality of the National Research Council staff; on behalf of the committee I especially thank David Policansky, Tania Williams, and Adrienne Davis. The committee met seven times from December 1992 to June 1994; two meetings were held in Portland, Oregon, and two in Seattle, Washington, to allow persons from the Pacific Northwest with information relevant to the issues easy access to the committee. In addition, a writing subgroup met and individual committee members met in pairs and trios on specific issues. The dates and meeting locations are in Appendix B. The committee thanks the many persons who provided information and points of view to us in open sessions and public hearings. These people further broadened the scope of the committee, and the specific information we received greatly helped develop our own perspectives on the issues. These individuals and organizations are identified in Appendix C. Also, I thank Courtland L. Smith for his many contributions during the period he served on the committee, both to the process of the committee and the text of our report. The "salmon problem" in the Pacific Northwest is one that can be dealt with only if the diverse participants work together on the many issues that unfold over the long meandering path laid out by the salmon over their lives from clear cold streams where they hatch, to the ocean where they grow, and back again to their natal streams to spawn. Owing to the wide distribution of Pacific anadromous salmon, the region over which the salmon-human interactions play out cuts across

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PREFACE IX local, state, and international boundaries; across the responsibilities of many human institutions designed to deal with parts of the problem; and across the lands and waters used in many different human endeavors. The interactions with human activity cannot be solved by the action of single groups or by focusing on single issues and single causes. In a sense, Upstream: Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest challenges society to deal with this large issue involving environmental, resource, and human considerations at the time and space scales necessary to prevent further declines or perhaps even rehabilitate the human- salmon system. John J. Magnuson Chair

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the Na- tional Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Harold Liebowitz is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. x

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Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, 1 Status of Salmon Populations, 2 The Salmon Problem, 3 General Conclusion, 4 Environmental Factors, 4 Limits on Salmon Production, 5 Values, 6 Genetics and Conservation, 7 Habitat Loss and Rehabilitation, 8 Dams, 9 Hatcheries, 11 Fishing, 12 Institutional Change, 14 A Scientific Advisory Board to Address Salmon Problems, 15 An Approach to Solving the Salmon Problem, 15 The Future, 16 1 INTRODUCTION, 1 8 The Salmon Problem, 18 Components of the System, 20 The Region, 20 The Salmon, 20 Evolutionary, Genetic, Ecological, and Spatial Units of Concern, 21 The People, 23 Xl

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. . All Components of the Problem, 24 Limits to Biological Production, 24 Institutions, 24 Knowledge, 25 Approaches, 25 Goals, 25 Framework, 25 2 SALMON GEOGRAPHY AND ECOLOGY, 28 Introduction, 28 Salmon Life History and Distribution, 29 Anadromy, 29 Homing, 29 Semelparity, 29 Generalized Life Cycle, 30 Individual Species Distributions, 31 Pacific Northwest Salmon Areas, 33 River Basins, 34 Ocean, 35 Salmon Ecology in River Basins, 35 Species Interactions, 35 Juvenile Adaptability, 37 Spawners' Effects on Streams, 37 Cautions, 38 Salmon Ecology in the Ocean, 39 Interdecadal Variation in Ocean Climate, 40 Density-Dependent Effects, 44 Larger Spatial and Temporal Scales, 45 HUMAN HISTORY AND INFLUENCES, 46 Historical Setting, 46 Cultures and Treaties, 47 Decline of the Beaver, 49 Fishing Pressures, 49 Propagating Fish, 50 Grazing Rangelands, 55 Harvesting the Old Growth, 56 Damming the Northwest, 60 Watering the Land, 66 Altering Wetlands and Estuaries, 70 Summary and Conclusions, 73 CONTENTS

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CONTENTS 4 STATUS OF SAEMON, 75 Interpreting Historical Records, 77 The Stock Concept, 78 Risk Assessment, 79 Fraser River Basin, 82 Puget Sound, 86 Columbia River Basin, 90 Historical Trends, 90 Snake River, 91 Middle and Upper Columbia River, 95 Lower Columbia River, 101 Coastal Washington, Oregon, and California, 103 Willapa Bay A Case Study, 110 5 VAEUES AND INSTITUTIONS, 115 Introduction, 115 Individual Preferences and Public Values, 116 How Salmon Are Valued, 117 Direct Regional Economic Value, 121 Indirect and Option Values, 122 Resource Values and Public Choice, 124 Value Over Time and Generations, 125 Institutions and Values, 126 "Lords of Yesterday", 126 Technological Optimism, 129 Political Pluralism, 130 "Princes of Today"?, 130 Public Trust and American Indian Rights, 131 Resource Planning, 131 Fisheries Management Institutions, 139 Biodiversity and Endangered Species, 140 Compensation, Liability and the Law, 141 Values and Analysis, 142 6 GENETICS AND CONSERVATION, 145 Structure of Genetic Variation, 146 Local Reproductive Units, 148 Local Adaptation, 150 Metapopulation Structure, 155 Level of Genetic Organization to be Conserved, 159 Effects of Human Activities on Genetic Diversity, 161 Conclusions, 162 . . . Xtll

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XIV 7 HABTTAT LOSS, 164 Dimensions of the Problem, 164 Natural Versus Anthropogenic Disturbances and Watershed Productivity, 166 Sedimentation, 169 Streambank Erosion, 180 Streambank Armoring and Channelization, 181 Instream Mining, 182 Diking, Draining, and Filling, 183 Flood Control, 185 Altered Streamflow, 186 Altered Groundwater, 189 Altered Riparian Vegetation, 190 Altered Thermal Regime, 191 Decreased Large Woody Debris, 194 Migration Barriers, 196 Water Pollution, 197 Loss of Refuges, 199 Summary, 199 8 HABTTAT MANAGEMENT AND REHAsT~TTAT~oN, 204 Watershed Influences, 204 Habitat-Management Options, 206 Protection, 206 Restoration, 206 Rehabilitation, 211 Substitution, 212 Watershed Analysis, 213 Opportunities and Challenges, 217 Property Rights and Habitat Protection on Private Lands, 221 Burden of Proof, 224 Habitat Management and Fisheries Management, 225 9 DAMS AND MITIGATION OF THEIR EFFECTS, 226 Introduction, 226 Effects of Dams on Salmon, 231 Dam-Related Mortality, 231 Time of Travel, 235 Unscreened Diversion Dams, 237 Estuarine Dynamics, 237 Mitigation of Dams' Effects on Salmon, 238 Fish-Passage Facilities, 238 Predator Control, 240 CONTENTS

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CONTENTS 10 FISHING, 254 Transportation, 240 Spill, 241 Flow Augmentation, 243 Reservoir Drawdown, 246 Dam Removal, 248 Selection of Mitigation Alternatives, 253 Salmon Fisheries in the Pacific Northwest, 254 Early History, 254 The 1990s, 257 Fishery-Management Institutions, 258 Fishery-Management Data, 260 International Influences, 262 High-Seas Fishing, 262 Canadian and U.S. Fishery Interactions, 265 Conclusion, 273 1 1 SA~MoN-F~sHERY MANAGEMENT CONCEPTS, 2 75 Stock and Recruitment, 276 Fishery Management in the Future, 285 The Status Quo, 285 The No-Fishing Option, 287 The Limited-Entry Option, 291 The Terminal-Fishery Option, 292 Developing a New Management Paradigm, 293 Conclusions, 301 12 HATCHERIES, 302 Problems Associated with Hatchery Practices, 304 Demographic Risks, 305 Genetic and Evolutionary Risks, 305 Behavior, 310 Fish Health, 311 Physiology, 312 Ecological Problems, 313 Roles of Hatcheries in the Future of Salmon, 314 Hatcheries in the Rehabilitation Option, 316 Temporary Hatcheries, 318 Catch-Augmentation Hatchery, 319 Conclusions, 319 Recommendations, 321 XV

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XVI 13 INSTITUTIONAL ANALYSIS, 324 Introduction, 324 Bioregional Governance, 326 Cooperative Management, 332 Adaptive Management, 336 A Proposal for Constructive Action, 340 Columbia River System, 346 Coastal Streams and Estuaries, 347 14 A SCIENTIFIC ADVISORY BOARD TO ADDRESS THE SAEMON PRosEEM, 348 Gaps in Knowledge, 348 Science, River Flows, and Uncertainty, 349 A Scientific Advisory Board, 353 Why a Scientific Advisory Board Is Needed, 353 Requirements for an Effective Scientific Advisory Board, 355 15 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS: TOWARD A SusTA~NAsEE FUTURE FOR SAEMON, 358 General Conclusion, 359 Environmental Changes, 360 Oceanic Conditions, 361 Regional Variation, 361 Values and Institutions, 362 Genetics and Conservation, 363 Genetic Resources, 363 Regional Population Structure, 363 Habitat Loss and Rehabilitation, 364 Dams, 366 Fishing and Fishery Management, 368 Too Few Spawners, 368 Protection of Genetic Diversity, 369 Strong and Depleted Populations, 370 Hatcheries, 371 Role of Hatcheries, 371 Regional Variation in Use of Hatcheries, 372 Information Needs, 373 Funding Adequacy, 373 Adaptive Management, 373 Institutions, 374 An Approach to Solving the Salmon Problem, 378 The Future, 379 REFERENCES, 381 CONTENTS

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CONTENTS APPENDIXES A: Biographical Information on Committee Members and Staff, 421 B: Meeting Dates and Locations, 429 C: Acknowledgments, 430 D: Major Landforms and Their Rivers, 432 E: International Treaty Considerations in Operation of the Columbia River System, 435 F: Reservoir-System Operation, 438 INDEX, 441 XVi!

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Facing page: Image of the Haida Dog Salmon (Saagi) by Haida artist Bill Reid. Courtesy of Bill Reid and the Buschlen Mowatt Gallery, 111-1445 W. Georgia St., Vancouver, BC, Canada V6G 2T3.

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i PSTREAH Salmon and Society in the Pacific Northwest ~ \~ ,~ ,~ Yew

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