NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.

This work is funded in part by contract CMRC 50-DKNA-5-00015/C from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and printed with funds from U.S. Department of Agriculture grant 403K06506534. The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of NOAA or any of its sub-agencies.

Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 96-70442

COVER ART: Reproduction of the batik “Sunday Morning” by Susan Schneider, from the collection of Edward Sarachik. Ms. Schneider runs her own batik card business in Seattle, Washington. Her father, Harry Wexler, was Chief Scientist of the U.S. Weather Bureau. Her uncle, Jerome Namais (member of the National Academy of Sciences), was a major developer of long-range weather prediction and a pioneer in the study of short-term climate variations. “Sunday Morning” is based on a black and white photograph from the 1890s of residents in the town of Oak Bluffs, Massachusetts, heading for church. The TOGA Panel selected it for the cover to evoke the beginnings of a new age of climate prediction.