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~ - g 1 - ~ Proceedings of a Symposium November 28-30, 1994 Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center Irvine, California Technology and Development Steering Committee Office of International Affairs National Research Council Finance and Private Sector Development The World Bank NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1995

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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competence and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. This report has been prepared by the Technology and Development Steering Committee, which includes members from both the National Research Council and the World Bank. Support for the Symposium on Marshaling Technology for Development was provided jointly by both organiza- tions. A limited number of copies of this report are available from: Office of International Affairs National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 Tel: 1-800-624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). Library of Congress Catalog Card Number: 95-71477 International Standard Book Number: 0-309-05349-8 Copyright 1995 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the-United States of America

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TECHNOLOGY AND DEVELOPMENT STEERING COMMITTEE Co-chairs Gerald P. Dinneen, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering Jean-Fran~cois Rischard, Vice President, Finance and Private Sector Development, World Bank Committee Members Jordan J. Baruch, President, Jordan J. Baruch Associates George Bugliarello, Chancellor, Polytechnic University Elkyn Chaparro, Senior Adviser, Finance and Private Sector Development, World Bank Carl Dahlman, Manager, Private Sector Development Department, World Bank Magdi R. Iskander, Director, Private Sector Development Department, World Bank David P. Rail, Foreign Secretary, Institute of Medicine F. Sherwood Rowland, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences Vernon W. Ruttan, Regents Professor, University of Minnesota Richard Stern, Director, Industry and Energy Department, World Bank James B. Wyngaarden, Former Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences National Research Council Staff: E. William Colglazier, Executive Officer Michael P. Greene, Program Director, Office of International Affairs (OIA) Wendy D. White, Senior Staff Officer, OIA Constance M. Reges, Program Assistant, OIA

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The World Bank, headed by its president Mr. James D. Wolfensohn, is a multilateral development institution whose purpose is to assist its developing member countries further their economic and social progress so that their people may live better and fuller lives. The term "World Bank" refers to two legally and financially distinct entities: the International Bank for Reconstruction and Develop- ment (IBRD) and the International Development Association (IDA). The IBRD and IDA have three related functions: to lend funds, to provide economic advice and technical assistance, and to serve as a catalyst to investment by others. Working with its borrowers, the Bank places poverty reduction at the center of its country assistance strategies. The Vice Presidency for finance and Private Sector Development, led by Mr. Jean-Fran,cois Rischard, was created in January 1993 to centralize the Bank's efforts to develop more vibrant and competitive private sectors in client countries. Most of the time of its approximately 200 specialized staff is spent helping the Bank's regional staff across all six regions to improve the quality and effectiveness of Bank assistance for private sector development, frequently through innovative lend- ing and technical assistance operations. The remainder of their time is spent identifying and dissemi- nating best practices in various areas, through training programs given in and outside the Bank, seminars and conferences, and multiple contracts with external partners of the Bank. * * * The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distin- guished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress and signed by Abraham Lincoln in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Harold Liebowitz is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is adminis- tered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. The Office of International Affairs (OIA) is concerned with the development of international and national policies to promote more effective application of science and technology to economic and social problems facing both industrialized and developing countries. OIA participates in interna- tional cooperative activities, engages in joint studies and projects with counterpart organizations, manages scientific exchange programs, and represents the Academy complex at many national and international meetings directed toward facilitating international cooperation in science and engineer- ing. Dr. F. Sherwood Rowland, Dr. Harold Forsen, and Dr. David Rall are the foreign secretaries of the National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine, respectively. 1V

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Preface The last decades of the twentieth century have been characterized not only by a rapid pace of technological innovation, but also by the equally rapid integra- tion of new technologies into society. The computer entered people's lives as a personal tool and transformed commerce and industry, from supermarkets to Wall Street. Other technologies propelled the telecommunications industries, pro- viding the willing consumer with cable TV, mobile phones, and Internet. These innovations are visible in any city of the industrialized world, and to a large extent in the newly industrialized states as well. But their deeper portent for the future is much less obvious, and their ultimate impact on the two-thirds of the world's population living in developing countries is the most difficult to assess. Yet for those responsible for the well-being of those countries-government leaders, businessmen and women, scientists and engineers and for the develop- ment agencies, including the World Bank, that assist them, this question cannot be addressed too soon. If in fact the wave of technology innovation amounts to a second industrial revolution, as some predict, the developing countries must be prepared to join it or risk being left behind. It is for this reason that the World Bank and the National Research Council proposed to combine their efforts to assess the impact of technological innovation on the developing countries. The collaboration that culminated in the Symposium on Marshaling Technology for Development was motivated by the sense that there are important challenges and opportunities for developing countries in re- cent technological advances, and that both development organizations and scien- tific institutions have a special responsibility to work together to assist these v

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V1 Preface countries in adapting to and profiting from these advances. The focus of this symposium was strictly on some of the new advances and the emerging technolo- gies. Proven and well-understood technologies such as drainage systems, water recycling, and efficient stoves, whose value is undeniable, were not discussed; the same was true of nuclear power, which may be an important option for some countries but presently is not characterized as an innovative technology. Readers should be aware that this strict focus on the newer, advanced, and perhaps untried technologies is not meant to disparage older technologies by omission. On the other hand, whenever the observation is made that needed technologies are not available, it is based on an assessment of all the technologies, newer and older, available to the user. The World Bank and the National Research Council have unqualified exper- tise on complementary aspects of the problem of applying technology to develop- ment. The Bank, as the world's premier development organization, has acted as lender to governments since the Bretton Woods agreement of 1945. The National Research Council (NRC), the operating arm of the National Academy of Sci- ences and National Academy of Engineering, is a nongovernmental scientific and technological organization whose primary function is to advise the U.S. govern- ment on issues related to science and technology. Surprisingly, over the years the two organizations have interacted relatively little. In the early 1980s, they collaborated on a project to reform the Chinese universities in the fields of economics and engineering. A decade later, they joined forces in a project to assist the government of Indonesia to develop its capability to utilize technology in industry. In between, there has been only a handful of collaborative projects, most of them NRC studies that received partial funding from the Bank. Separately, however, the two institutions have contributed much to the theory and practice of science and technology for development. For example, the World Bank has supported technology development through its lending operations, policy advice, and research, as well as through specific initiatives such as its support of the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and its international network of research centers. The Bank's annual World Development Reports and monographs are well known for their reliable diagnostics of development problems and their influence on government policies. The National Research Council has produced many studies relevant to interna- tional development, including, within the last two years, Realizing the Informa- tion Future, In Situ Bioremediation: When Does it Work? Vetiver Grass: a Thin Green Line against Erosion, Foundations of World Class Manufacturing, and Sustainable Agriculture and the Environment in the Humid Tropics. Other NRC activities have directly supported research projects in developing countries and have convened technical workshops for U.S. and developing country scientists 1 . and engineers.

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PREFACE OBJECTIVES AND ORGANIZATION OF THE SYMPOSIUM . . V11 This collaboration was directed by a steering group, led by Jean-Fran~cois Rischard, vice president for finance and private sector development of the World Bank, and Gerald P. Dinneen, foreign secretary of the National Academy of Engineering. The Symposium on Marshaling Technology for Development, con- vened November 28-30, 1994, at the National Academy of Sciences's Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center in Irvine, California, was designed to identify areas for action by the Bank and the National Research Council and to cement working relations among the technical staffs of the two organizations. It also served to initiate the formation of a network of scientific organizations on which the Bank may call for technical advice. The symposium was formally opened by Bruce Alberts, president of the National Academy of Sciences, and Mr. Rischard, who introduced their organiza- tions and briefly presented their personal views of science, technology, and inter- national development. Keynote presentations were then made by George Bugliarello, chancellor of Polytechnic University, on the global generation, trans- mission, and diffusion of knowledge, and Harvey Brooks of Harvard University on technology transfer. These presentations were followed by three discussions of key generic technologies: biotechnology, led by Rita Colwell (University of Maryland Biotechnology Institute); materials, led by Praveen Chaudhari (IBM Corp.~; and information technology, led by John S. Mayo (AT&T Bell Laborato- ries). A panel discussion chaired by Gerald Dinneen allowed these speakers to consider the broader, interdisciplinary questions proposed by the other partici- pants. The remainder of the symposium was devoted to sectoral sessions, each introduced by a primary speaker representing the National Research Council and followed by discussants from the World Bank and a developing country. The sectoral topics, selected by the World Bank, were areas of high technological content. The symposium did not pretend to cover topics not included in the sectoral sessions, nor to explore exhaustively the full range of views. The primary speakers were Richard R. Harwood (Michigan State Univer- sity), agriculture; Sidney F. Heath III (AT&T Corp.), manufacturing; Richard E. Balzhiser (Electric Power Research Institute), energy; Alan M. Lesgold (Univer- sity of Pittsburgh), education and training; Jordan J. Baruch (Jordan J. Baruch Associates), services; Kenneth I. Shine, M.D. (Institute of Medicine), health; and Robert M. White (National Academy of Engineering), environment. Discussants from the World Bank were Carlos Braga, Alexander McCalla, Mohan Munasinghe, Julian Schweitzer, Richard Stem, Peter Urban, and Jacques Van Der Gaag. Representing other institutions were Reynoldo dela Cruz, Na- tional Institute of Biotechnology, University of the Philippines; Agustin del Rio, Vitro Corporativo, Mexico; Demissie Habte, International Centre for Diarrheal Disease Research, Bangladesh; Lee Hoevel, AT&T Global Information Solu

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. . . V111 Preface lions; Vimla L. Patel, Centre for Medical Education, McGill University; Evald Emilevich Shpilrain, Institute for High Temperatures, Russian Academy of Sci- ences; N. Vaghul, Industrial Credit and Investment Corporation of India Limited; and James B. Wyngaarden, National Academy of Sciences. Each sectoral session of the plenary was followed by a break-out session that included the primary speakers and discussants and other specialists from the World Bank and NRC. These sessions identified the important themes and for- mulated recommendations. Rapporteurs for the break-out sessions were Dennis Anderson, James Bond, Melvin Goldman, Kristin Hallberg, Lauritz Holm- Nielsen, Dean Jamison, and Christian Pieri from the World Bank; and Caroline Clarke, Donna Gerardi, Christopher Howson, Dev Mani, Susan Offutt, Procter Reid, and Paul Uhlir from the National Research Council. This report on the findings of the symposium was drafted by Michael Greene of the National Research Council's Office of International Affairs and Kristin Hallberg of the Private Sector Development Department of the World Bank. It summarizes the ideas presented by the keynote speakers, the primary speakers, and the discussants, and incorporates the additions and recommendations formu- lated in the break-out sessions. The keynote and primary sectoral presentations appear in the third part of this report, Invited Papers. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS For the World Bank, Carl Dahlman and Elkyn Chaparro played key roles in the organization of the symposium. Their counterparts at the National Research Council were Michael Greene and Wendy White. Connie Reges managed the meeting logistics, assisted by Cindy Butler. The papers and proceedings were edited by Sabra Bissette Ledent, and Wendy White supervised the production process.

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Contents Introduction The Science of Sustainable Development Bruce Alberts, President, National Academy of Sciences Forces Reshaping the World Economy Jean-Fran~cois Rischard, Vice President, Finance and Private Sector Development, World Bank Proceedings CHAPTER 1 The Globalization of Knowledge and Technology CHAPTER 2 Marshaling Technology for Development: Assessing the Challenge CHAPTER 3 Opportunities and Strategies by Sector CHAPTER 4 Rising to the Challenge: Priorities for the Developing Countries and the International Development Community Prepared by Michael P. Greene, National Research Council, and Kristen Hallberg, World Bank Invited Papers The Global Generation, Transmission, and Diffusion of Knowledge: How Can the Developing Countries Benefit? George Bugliarello, Polytechnic University 1X 3 8 17 29 35 50 61

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x Contents What We Know and Do Not Know about Technology Transfer: Linking Knowledge to Action Harvey Brooks, Harvard University Technological Trends and Applications in Biotechnology Rita Colwell, University of Maryland Biotechnology Institute Materials and Critical Technologies P. Chaudhari, IBM Thomas J. Watson Research Center Information Technology for Development John S. Mayo, AT&T Bell Laboratories Broadened Agricultural Development: Pathways toward the Greening of Revolution Richard R. Harwood, Michigan State University Lessons from the Evolution of Electronics Manufacturing Technologies Sidney F. Heath III, AT&T Innovations in Energy Technology Richard E. Balzhiser, Electric Power Research Institute Educational Technology for Developing Countries Alan M. Lesgold, University of Pittsburgh Technological Innovation and Services Jordan J. Baruch, Jordan J. Baruch Associates Health Technology and Developing Countries: Dilemmas and Applications Kenneth I. Shine, M.D., Institute of Medicine Sustainable Development: Mirage or Achievable Goal? Robert M. White, National Academy of Engineering Appendix Symposium Participants 83 97 128 137 145 161 175 189 210 219 237 247

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