Careers in Science and Technology: An International Perspective

Advisory Committee

Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel and

Committee on International Organizations and Programs

Office of International Affairs

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1995



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Careers in Science and Technology: An International Perspective Advisory Committee Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel and Committee on International Organizations and Programs Office of International Affairs National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1995

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National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Harold Liebowitz is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This material is based on work supported by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, the National Science Foundation, and the National Academy of Engineering. Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 95-72621 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05427-3 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, D.C. 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) B-703 Copyright 1995 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel and Office of International Affairs ORGANIZING COMMITTEE FOR THE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TRENDS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAREERS Walter A. Rosenblith, Chairman Massachusetts Institute of Technology R. Stephen Berry University of Chicago Ernest Jaworski Monsanto Company (retired) Daniel A. Kleppner Massachusetts Institute of Technology John H. Moore George Mason University Rodney W. Nichols The New York Academy of Sciences Linda Wilson Radcliffe College Paolo Fasella (ex-officio member) Commission of the European Communities Project Staff Pamela Ebert Flattau Director, Studies and Surveys Unit Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel (until April 7, 1995) Patrice Legro Program Officer Office of International Affairs (until October 13, 1993) Patricia A. Kirchner Project Assistant Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel (until June 10, 1994)

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INVITED CONTRIBUTORS PAUL BALTES, Max Planck Institute for Human Development and Education, Berlin, Germany GLYNIS BREAKWELL, Department of Psychology, University of Surrey, Guildford, United Kingdom DERVILLA DONNELLY, Department of Chemistry, University College Dublin, Dublin, Ireland PIM FENGER, Ministry of Education and Science, Zoetermeer, The Netherlands PAMELA EBERT FLATTAU, National Research Council, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. WENDY HANSEN, Scientific, Technical, and Engineering Personnel; Industry, Science, and Technology, Ottawa, Canada TORSTEN HUSÉN, Institute of International Education, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden KAZUO ISHIZAKA, Curriculum Research Division, National Institute for Educational Research, Tokyo, Japan ALFRED McLAREN, Science Service, Washington, D.C., U.S.A. JON MILLER, The Chicago Academy of Sciences, International Center for the Advancement of Scientific Literacy, Chicago, Illinois, U.S.A. EMILIO MUÑOZ, Institute of Advanced Social Studies, Madrid, Spain HAJIME NAGAHAMA, National Institute of Science and Technology Policy, Second Policy-Oriented Research Group, Tokyo, Japan RICHARD PEARSON, Institute of Manpower Studies, University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom GUNNAR WESTHOLM, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris, France THOMAS WHISTON, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, Brighton, United Kingdom YU XIE, Population Studies Center, The University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, U.S.A.

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OSEP ADVISORY COMMITTEE LINDA WILSON, President, Radcliffe College, Chair ERNEST JAWORSKI, Distinguished Science Fellow, Monsanto Company (retired), Vice Chair BETSY ANCKER-JOHNSON, Vice President for Environmental Activities, General Motors (retired) DAVID BRENEMAN, Curry School of Education, University of Virginia DAVID L. GOODSTEIN, Vice Provost and Professor of Physics and Applied Physics, California Institute of Technology LESTER A. HOEL, Hamilton Professor of Civil Engineering, University of Virginia JUANITA M. KREPS, Department of Economics, Duke University DONALD LANGENBERG, Chancellor, University of Maryland System JUDITH S. LIEBMAN, Department of Mechanical and Industrial Engineering, University of Illinois at Champaign BARRY MUNITZ, Chancellor, The California State University KENNETH OLDEN, Director, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, National Institutes of Health EWART A. C. THOMAS, Department of Psychology, Stanford University ANNETTE B. WEINER, Dean, Graduate School of Arts and Sciences, New York University WILLIAM H. MILLER, Department of Chemistry, University of California at Berkeley, ex-officio National Research Council Staff CHARLOTTE V. KUH, Executive Director MARILYN J. BAKER, Associate Executive Director KIMBERLY A. MANN, Administrative Assistant

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COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND PROGRAMS Committee Members F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences, Chairman YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant, Skillman, New Jersey GEORGE BUGLIARELLO, Chancellor, Polytechnic University RITA R. COLWELL, President, Maryland Biotechnology Institute ANTHONY DESOUZA, Rockville, Maryland MOHAMED T. EL-ASHRY, Chief Executive Officer and Chairman, Global Environment Facility HAROLD K. FORSEN, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering, ex-officio EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Director, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, ex-officio LEON M. LEDERMAN, Professor of Physics, Illinois Institute of Technology, and Director Emeritus, Fermi National Accelerator Lab THOMAS H. LEE, President, Center for Quality Management, ex-officio JOHN H. MOORE, Distinguished Service Professor, George Mason University HAROLD A. MOONEY, Paul F. Achilles Professor of Environmental Biology, Stanford University, ex-officio RODNEY W. NICHOLS, Chief Executive Officer and President, New York Academy of Sciences DAVID P. RALL, Foreign Secretary, Institute of Medicine, ex-officio WALTER A. ROSENBLITH, Institute Professor Emeritus, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Special Advisor SUSAN SOLOMON, Senior Scientist, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration National Research Council Staff SHERBURNE B. ABBOTT, Director LEANNA B. HANDWORK, Research Associate EVELYN SIMEON, Office Coordinator

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ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Funding for the International Conference on Trends in Science and Technology Careers was provided by the U.S. National Science Foundation, the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, and the U.S. National Academy of Engineering. In addition, the Commission of the European Communities graciously offered to host the meeting in Brussels, making it possible for additional individuals from Europe and Asia to participate in the conference. In addition to the conference participants, a number of people contributed in important ways to the success of the meeting and the completion of this report. Walter Rosenblith, Emeritus Professor, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, with his wisdom and wit, shepherded the ideas and the planning staff in the development of the conference and the design of the resulting report. Also, Professor Paolo Fasella, Director General, Directorate General XII of the European Commission of the European Union, offered useful suggestions for the organization of the conference at key stages of its planning in his capacity of ex-officio member of the conference steering committee. Patrice Legro, who currently serves as a Senior Program Officer within the National Research Council's Center for Science, Mathematics, and Engineering Education, played an invaluable role in coordinating international communications, in assisting in the conference planning, and in reporting its outcomes. Likewise, Ian Perry, Coordinator of S/T Policies of Members States and CREST, Directorate General-Sciences, Research and Development of the Commission of the European Communities, was most helpful in providing logistical support in Brussels and contributed to the overall success of the meeting. Pamela Ebert Flattau, Director of the Studies and Surveys Unit within the National Research Council's Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel, played a key role in planning the conference and overseeing the development of this volume. Patricia Kirchner, Administrative Assistant with the Studies and Surveys Unit, worked tirelessly to coordinate the production of the workshop papers. Donna Wiss Hannah and Anthony Quinn De Santis contributed significantly to the design and preparation of this volume. And finally, Jo Louise Husbands, Director of the Committee on International Security and Arms Control and Sherburne B. Abbott, Director of the Committee on International Organizations and Programs, had the task of weaving the pieces together into a final product, which Kimberly Mann led through production. To all of these people, we express our gratitude for their efforts. LINDA WILSON Chair Office of Scientific and Engineering Personnel F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND Chair Office of International Affairs

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PREFACE As we approach the start of a new century, it is apparent that science and technology (S&T) will continue to play a pivotal role in modern life. Skilled workers will be needed at all levels. Many of these workers will be drawn from the pool of students presently passing through school systems around the world; the remainder represent workers already employed who will need to maintain their technical skills if they are to be part of the S&T effort in the next century. Nations will be challenged, therefore, to formulate human resource policies that achieve an appropriate balance between the entry and turnover of workers in the S&T labor force while maintaining the productivity of those who remain employed. There is growing concern, however, among educators and policymakers in many countries that fewer students are interested in pursuing careers in S&T than in the past. Because the S&T enterprise depends on the flow of new talent into the field, declining student interest could have a significant and unwanted impact in the long run on the size and quality of the workforce. A number of countries have intensified their efforts to collect and analyze statistics that monitor the growth of the S&T labor force. "Career studies" have offered an especially important new dimension for analyzing talent flow. Such studies focus on the early phases of career development, such as student aspirations, educational patterns, and career choice. Countries vary, however, with respect to their investment in S&T career studies. As a result, our understanding is quite limited of the extent to which countries experience common problems with respect to talent flow into S&T at these various stages of career formation. Because of the potential for career studies to guide the development of the S&T workforce locally, regionally, and nationally, the U.S. National Research Council (NRC), in partnership with the European Union, convened a meeting to discuss what is known about the development of S&T careers from an international perspective. The idea for the conference generated from a resolution of the International Council of Scientific Unions (ICSU) noting concern about the apparent decline in interest of the world's younger generation in science. The NRC's Committee on International Organizations and Programs, which serves as the U.S. National Committee for ICSU, undertook the task of organizing with its national and international partners a response to this resolution into the conference, which is the subject of this report. Over 40 experts familiar with the study of talent flow and the institutional dimensions of human resource development met for 2 days in Brussels in 1993 to discuss "career studies," to identify ways to improve data collection for decisionmaking, and to consider expanding the role of international organizations in relevant areas of policy formulation. Background papers were prepared by each participant and circulated in advance of the meeting. This report presents those papers in a collected volume, together with a brief overview of the conference objectives and discussions. These materials indicate that many countries have experienced similar problems with respect to the flow of talent into S&T. Furthermore, many have adopted similar strategies for reversing unwanted trends. However, further work is needed to make data collection and analysis comparable from country to country before educators and policymakers have a clear understanding of the similarities and differences in "S&T career development" from an international perspective.

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Many of the programs and activities described have made further progress and some have concluded since the conference was held. Thus, although we cannot assume that the situation in 1995 is necessarily the same as in 1993, the challenges of developing and sustaining careers in S&T described in this report will continue for some time. It is our hope that this volume will provide an important resource for those involved in the effort to turn the challenges into opportunities. WALTER A. ROSENBLITH Emeritus Professor Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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CONTENTS INTRODUCTION     PART I MONITORING CAREER TRENDS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY         Summary of Introductory Comments Richard Pearson   9     Recent Developments in International Science and Technology Personnel Data Collection Gunnar Westholm   11     The Trends in Scientific and Engineering Personnel in Japan and the Focus of Research in the National Institute of Science and Technology Policy Hajime Nagahama   20     Developing Data Systems on Trends in Science and Technology Careers Glynis Breakwell   36 PART II ANALYZING TRENDS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAREERS: THE LONGITUDINAL APPROACH         Summary of Introductory Comments Paul Baltes   41     A Demographic Approach to Studying the Process of Becoming a Scientist/Engineer Yu Xie   43     Human Resources in Science and Technology and the Less Developed Countries of Europe (EC-12) Emilio Muñoz   58     The Longitudinal Analysis of the Selection of Careers in Science and Technology Jon Miller   72

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PART III ANALYZING TRENDS IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAREERS: FACTORS DETERMINING CHOICE         Overview of Technical Papers Wendy Hansen   79     Science and Technology Careers: Individual and Societal Factors Determining Choice Thomas Whiston   82     Factors Behind Choice of Advanced Studies and Careers in Science and Technology: A Synthesis of Research in Science Education Torsten Husén   115     Critique of Technical Papers Alfred McLaren   127 PART IV UTILIZING POINTS OF INTERVENTION TO ENHANCE AND SUSTAIN INTEREST IN SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAREERS         Introduction to Utilizing Points of Intervention to Enhance and Sustain Interest in Science and Technology Careers Pim Fenger   135     Human Development of Science and Technology in Japan: From the Classroom to the Business World Kazuo Ishizaka   139     Trends in Science and Technology Careers: Education Through Research Dervilla Donnelly   154     Utilizing Points of Intervention: A Critique Pamela Ebert Flattau   164 PART V INFLUENCING SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CAREER TRENDS: THE ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS         Profiles of Participating Organizations   169 APPENDIX A THE CONFERENCE PROGRAM   177 APPENDIX B PARTICIPANT ROSTER   180