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Index A Adaptive management, 176 Adverse effects, see Outcomes and consequences Advisory committees, 96, 123, 200-201 in Florida power plant siting, 21, 125 for procedural review, 153-154, 165 Affected parties definition, 214 economic effects, 45, 70, 71 identification and selection, 30, 87- 91, 119, 122-123, 146, 147 technical assistance for, 4, 5, 84-85, 88, 93, 135, 160-161 see also Interested parties Agencies, see Government agencies and public officials AIDS drug trials, 21 Alar controversy, 47, 68 Aleatory uncertainty, 106-107 Alternative dispute resolution, 201-203 Analysis and analytic techniques, 3-4 5, 6-7, 30, 73, 97-117, 132, 158- 159, 163 definition, 214 241 integrity of, 158 legally mandated, 84, 105 qualitative, 97, 101 quantitative, 5, 80, 98, 99-102 role of, 24-26, 98-100 for routine decisions, 103, 114, 158 for simplifying risk, 5, 80, 102-106 standards for, 100-102 and uncertainty, 106-116 value judgments in, 5, 25-26, 39, 64- 65, 103-104, 105 see also Analytic-deliberative process; Analytic experts and scientists; Cost-benefit analysis; Multiattribute utility analysis; Risk analysis; Synthesis Analytic-deliberative process, 3-7, 20- 22, 30, 70-71, 118-132, 133-154, 158-161 closure, 6, 9, 129-131 costs and benefits of, 8-10, 85, 133- 135, 162-163, 164, 165-166 diagnosis of decision situation, 7-8, 23, 137-150, 161-162 evaluation and feedback, 9, 29, 151- 154, 165

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242 external political problems, 56, 95, 136-137 implementation, 133-154 information gathering and interpretation, 126-127 iteration in, 6, 9, 21, 163-164, 165, 189-193 organizational capability for, 9, 150-154, 164-166 practicality of, 133-137 problem formulation in, 6, 120-122, 162-163 process design, 6-7, 70-72, 85, 122- 124, 149, 161, 194-195 synthesis in, 127-129 training for, 164-165 truncation of, 85-86 see also Analysis and analytic techniques; Deliberation Analytic experts and scientists, 30, 82, 165 cognitive factors affecting judgment, 111-113 in group processes, 128-129, 181, 183, 184-185 Anchoring and adjustment, 112 Animal testing, 110 Assistance for participants, 4, 5, 84-85, 88, 93, 135, 160-161 Assumptions, 3, 24, 25, 33, 39, 100, 101 about local conditions, 53-54, 79-80, 88 about organizational behavior, 55- 56 about regulatory compliance, 54-55 of nonspecialists, 53, 61-64 simplifying, 53-56 Atomic Energy Commission, 49 Availability heuristic, 112 B Boulder, Colorado, transportation planning, 90-91 Brazil radioactive contamination incident, 45 INDEX Broadly based deliberation, 4, 24, 26, 77-78, 79-86, 160-161 definition, 77, 214 C California Comparative Risk Project (CCRP), 19, 83, 123, 136-137, 193-196 Cancer risk, 56-57, 69, 108, 110 in dioxin reassessment, 16, 17 Catastrophes, organizational anticipation of, 55-56 Chernobyl nuclear accident, 53, 56-57 Chester, Pennsylvania, plant siting, 40 Chlorine, 121, 180 Citizen advisory committees, 96, 123, 200-201 in Florida power plant siting, 21, 125, 190-195 Citizens' juries, 203-204 Citizens' panels, 128-129, 203-204, 206 Clean-up of contaminated sites disruptions caused by, 46 Hanford, Washington, 99 polychlorinated biphenyls, 115 Climate change, 114 Closure rules, 6, 9, 129-131 Coal mining death risks, 50-52 Cognition, see Psychological and cognitive factors Comparative risk, 5, 19, 105-106 see also California Comparative Risk Project Computer-assisted deliberation methods, 205 Consensus building, 115, 130 Consequences, see Outcomes and consequences Constraints on organizations, 92-93, 136-137 Controversies, 147-148 over analytic methods, 24, 25, 134- 135 effects of deliberation on, 83, 159

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INDEX Cost-benefit analysis, 65, 80, 84, 103, 104, 105 Crisis response, 55 Cultural factors, 54, 114-116 Cumbria pastureland contamination, 53-54 D Death rates, 50-52, 56-57 Decisions, see Risk decisions and decision makers Decision-support systems, 100 Delays in decision processes, 8-9, 10, 134, 162-163, 164 legitimate reasons for, 6, 129 as political tactic, 9, 86, 93, 130, 134, 135-136 Deliberation, 3, 4-5, 30, 32-33, 73-96, 158, 159-161, 163 constraints on, 4, 5, 92-93, 130 definition, 215 flexibility of process, 5, 94-95, 151 limitations and challenges of, 74-79 methods of, 96, 199-206 participant selection, 4, 5, 85, 88-91, 160 purposes of broadly based, 79-82 timing of, 78, 91 role in risk decision making, 74-79 standards and goals for, 82-96 see also Analytic-deliberative process; Broadly based deliberation; Participation and participants Delphi process, 128-129, 206 Department of Defense radiation experiments, 49 risk assessment procedures, 75-76 Department of Energy (DOE) citizen's advisory committees, 153 Hanford site future uses planning, 123-124, 196-198 risk assessment procedures, 75-76 Department of State, 18-19 Diagnosis, 7-8, 23, 29, 137-150, 161-162 steps in, 8, 142-149 243 Dioxin risks reassessment, 16-17 Disinfectant by-products rule negotiations, 20-21, 83, 120-122, 136-137, 179-188 Disqualification heuristic, 112 Dose-response characterizations, 16, 17, 141 Drinking water regulations, 92, 205 disinfectant by-products, 20-21, 83, 120-122, 136-137, 179-188 fluoridation, 42 E East Liverpool, Ohio, incineration project, 19-20, 176-179 Ecological effects, 3, 157, 165 risk analysis, 44-45, 133-134 Economic issues, 3, 45, 157, 165 precluded from deliberation, 84 Ecosystem management principles, 168, 169, 170 Emergency preparedness, 55-56 Environmental justice, 40-41, 46 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Chester plant siting analysis, 40 dioxin reassessment, 16-17 disinfectant by-products rule, 20- 21, 120-122, 136-137, 179-188 East Liverpool incinerator assessment, 177-179 ecological risk analysis, 44 and multiple exposure risks, 69 risk assessment procedures, 14, 27, 43n, 75-76 Epistemic uncertainty, 107, 108 Equity, see Fairness and equity issues Ethical issues, 3, 49, 157, 165 Ethnic groups, 40-41, 46 Evaluation and feedback systems, 9, 29, 151-154, 165 Everglades, 18-19, 88, 89, 126-127, 167- 176 Executive Order 12898, 40-41, 46-47

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244 Experts, see Analytic experts and scientists External constraints on organizations, 56, 92-93, 136-137 disregard and rejection of advice, 56, 83, 195-196 Exxon Valdez, 56 F Fairness and equity issues, 40-41, 48, 109 in deliberation process, 93-94 Federal agencies, see Government agencies and public officials Federal Advisory Committee Act, 92 Florida Everglades ecosystem project, 18-19, 88, 89, 126-127, 167-176 Florida Power Corporation (FPC), 21- 22, 120, 124-125, 126, 188-193 Fluoridation, 42 Focus groups, 205 Food and Drug Administration (FDA), AIDS drugs expedited protocols, 21 Future generations, 47-48 G General Public Utilities, 81 Generic hazard characterization, 141 Generic procedures, 136, 161-162 Government agencies and public officials, 30, 71, 91-92 deliberation process in, 78-79, 86, 87, 94-95 and equity issues, 40-41, 46-47 legal mandates and constraints, 32- 33, 43, 92, 95, 145-146 missions and budgets, 8, 164, 165- 166 scientific and research institutes, 9, 152, 165 trust in, 24, 49, 87, 115, 119 use of analytic techniques, 103, 104 see also Department of Defense; INDEX Department of Energy; Department of State; Environmental Protection Agency; Food and Drug Administration; National Transportation Safety Board; Nuclear Regulatory Commission; Regulation and regulatory processes H Hanford, Washington, site clean-up agreement, 99 future uses planning, 80, 123-124, 127, 196-198 Hazardous facilities siting, 45, 46, 124, 176-179, 188-193 I Ignorance, of processes underlying risk, 5, 107, 113, 114 Illness and morbidity, 52 Improving Risk Communication, ix Indeterminacy, 107, 109 Indirect representation, see Surrogates and representatives Individuals compliance with rules, 54-55 crisis behavior, 55 rights of, 42 Information gathering and interpretation, 50-56, 91, 126-127 assistance to participants for, 5, 84- 85, 160-161 Interactive technology, 205 Interested parties definition, 215 identification and selection, 30, 70, 71, 87-91 see also Affected parties Interested and affected parties, 77 see also Affected parties; Interested parties intergenerational equity, 47-48

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INDEX Involvement, see Participation and participants Iterative processes, 6, 9, 21, 163-164, 165, 189-193 Judgment in risk characterization, 37 72 and concept of risk, 38-39 in information gathering and interpretation, 50-56 and meaning of risk estimates, 66 69 for options and outcomes, 42-50 in problem formulation, 38-42 in summarizing information, 56-66 see also Valuation; Value judgments L Language ability, 54, 68, 69 Law of small numbers, 112 Legal mandates and constraints affecting decision-making, 5, 136- 137 affecting deliberation, 84, 92, 145- 146 affecting participation, 23, 92, 123 on analytic methods, 84, 105 on government agencies, 43, 92, 95, 145-146 unfunded mandates, 42, 49 Life expectancy, 52 Local conditions and impacts knowledge and assumptions about, 53-54, 79-80, 88 unfunded mandates, 42, 49 Low-income populations, 40-41 Low-probability events, 113 vigilance against, 55-56 M Malathion spraying program, 41-42, 54,59 245 Man and Biosphere Program (US MAB), 18-19, 88, 89, 126-127, 167-176 Medfly infestation in California, 41-42, 54,59 Media, 24, 83 Mediation, 201 Mediterranean fruit fly (Medfly) infestation, 41-42, 54, 59 Migrant workers' pesticide exposure, 54,68 Minority populations, 40-41, 46 Mistrust, see Trust and mistrust Models and simulations, 100, 101, 113- 114, 153, 165, 179 Multiattribute utility analysis, 65-66, 103, 188-189 Multidimensionality of risk, 5, 38-39, 61-66 aggregation and simplification techniques, 61-66, 80, 102-106 Multiple exposures, 69, 178 N National Research Council, studies of risk issues, 75-76 National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), 89 Negotiated Rulemaking Act of 1990, 181 Negotiation, 202 in regulatory process, 82, 91, 120- 122, 179-188, 202 Neighborhood disruption, 46 Nevada, Yucca Mountain repository site, 17-18, 47-48, 80 New Jersey raccoon rabies outbreak, 22 water quality regulations, 91, 205 Nonspecialists appropriate role in analysis, 23-24, 25, 26, 105, 134 contributions to knowledge base, 79-80

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246 risk models and assumptions of, 53, 61-64 Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and Three Mile Island accident, 81 and waste disposal, 18 Null hypothesis, 25 o Occupational hazards, 59 Options for risk decisions 42-43 124 , , 125 Organizations behaviors of, 55-56 capability for risk characterization, 8-10, 148-149, 150-154, 164-166 communication within, 9, 56 evaluation and feedback systems, 9, 151-154, 165 structural changes, 150-151, 165 see also Government agencies and public officials Outcomes and consequences, 3, 42-50, 125-126, 157 Overconfidence, 112-113 p Participation and participants, 3, 7, 9, 30, 31, 71-72, 132, 157, 158 identification and selection, 4, 5, 89- 91, 122-123, 160 indirect representation, 30, 85, 88- 89, 90, 123, 160 legal constraints, 23, 92, 123 rationales for broad inclusion, 23- 24,74 technical assistance for, 4, 5, 84-85, 88, 93, 135, 160-161 timing, 91 see also Affected parties; Analytic experts and scientists; Broadly based deliberation; Citizens' panels; Interested parties; Nonspecialists INDEX Peer review, 74-75 Perceived risk, 61-65 Point estimates, 67, 111 Policy dialogues, 201 Pollution prevention, 41-42 Polychlorinated biphenyls, cleanup controversy, 115 Populations at risk, 3, 40-41, 46, 68, 157, 178 Pretesting of risk information materials, 9, 151, 153 Probability, 107, 112-113 Problem formulation, 6, 25, 29, 38-42, 79, 91, 120-122, 162-163, 175-176, 182-184 definition, 215 summarization and framing, 56-61, 80 Procedural rules, 6, 130, 131, 160 Process design, 6-7, 70-72, 85, 122-124, 149, 161, 194-195 Property values, 45 Prospect theory, 57-61 Psychological and cognitive factors, 24, 57-61, 68 affecting judgment under uncertainty, 111-113 Public hearings, 199-200 Public meetings, 22, 96, 199, 200 Public officials, see Government agencies and public officials Public opinion, 148 Q Qualitative analysis, 45, 97, 101 Quantitative analysis, 5, 80, 98, 99-102 Quasi-experimental research, 153, 165 R Racial groups, 40-41,46 Radiation experiments, 49 Random selection, 90-91 Random variation, 5, 106-107, 159 Reading ability, 54, 68, 69

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INDEX "Red Book," 14, 34-35 Reference values, 59-60, 112 Regulation and regulatory processes, 32-33 compliance, 54-55 negotiation in, 82, 91, 120-122, 179- 188, 202 risk assessment separated from, 34- 35 and risk management, 33 routine approvals, 161-162 value-of-information analysis, 110 see also Government agencies and public officials Representation, see Surrogates and representatives Representativeness heuristic, 112 Retrospective analysis, 9, 151 Rights issues, 42 Ripple effects, 48 Risk analysis, 97 definition, 216 ecological, 44-45, 133-134 policy decisions, 43, 105, 142 sources of controversy over, 24, 25, 134-135 Risk assessment, 15, 27, 33-35 Risk Assessment in the Federal Government: Managing the Process, ix, 14, 34-35 Risk-based decision rules, 26 see also Comparative risk; Simplification techniques Risk characterization, 11-14, 27, 29-33 assumptions underlying, 3, 54-56, 100, 101 broad understanding of risk in, 2-3, 19-20, 156-158 criteria for success, 6-7, 132 as a decision-driven activity, 2, 16- 19, 155-156 definition, 27, 216 generic procedures for, 136, 161-162 level of effort, 4, 31, 119 organizational needs and capability, 8-10, 148-149, 150- 154, 164-166 247 principles, 2-8, 155-166 role of judgment in, 2, 14, 31, 104, 157-158 selection of options and outcomes, 3, 29, 42-50, 157 social issues considered, 3, 26, 45- 47, 98, 109, 157, 165, 194-195 as a summary, 14-16, 27, 31, 32 users of, 2, 27, 29, 156 see also Information gathering and interpretation; Options for risk decisions; Outcomes and consequences; Problem formulation; Process design; Synthesis Risk communication, 27, 69-70 Risk comparisons, see Comparative risk; Risk ranking Risk decisions and decision makers acceptance, 2, 81-82, 156 broad participation, 19-20, 23-24, 161 delays, 6, 8-9, 10, 86, 93, 130, 134, 135-136, 162-163 diagnosis of situation, 7-8, 23, 29, 137-150, 161-162 effects on future generations, 47-48 effects on governance, 49 factors affecting preferences, 57-61, 109 feasibility for, 5, 94-95, 118-119 generic hazard characterization, 141 legal constraints, 5, 136-137 options, 42-43, 124-125 participation, 30 reference points, 59-60 rejection of recommendations, 56, 83, 95, 195-196 repeated, wide-impact, 140-141 resource needs and constraints, 85, 148 unique, wide-impact, 8, 22, 139 see also Routine decisions; Siting . . . clec~s~ons Risk ladders, 80 Risk management, 15, 33-35 Risk ranking, 19, 105, 193-196

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248 Routine decisions, 8, 22-23, 119, 139- 140, 158, 161-162, see also Standard procedures analytic procedures, 103, 114, 158 deliberations for, 77-78 Rural areas, vaccination programs, 68 S Saccharin cancer risk studies, 110 Safe Water Drinking Act, 180, 186-187 Sampling techniques, 90-91, 112 Scenario-consequence analysis, 173 Science, 24-26, see also Analysis and analytic techniques Scientists, see Analytic experts and scientists Self-selection, 90 Simplification techniques, 61-66, 80, 102-106 Simplifying assumptions, 53-56 Simulation, see Models and simulations Siting decisions, 45, 46, 47, 124, 176- 179, 188-193 participatory deliberation in, 82, 124-125 Social factors in trusting government agencies, 24, 115 in understanding uncertainty, 6, 114-116, 159 Social issues in risk characterization, 3, 26, 45-47, 98, 109, 157, 165, 194-195 costs of analysis, 133-134 South Florida ecosystem restoration project, 18-19, 88, 89, 126-127, 167-176 Space shuttle Challenger explosion, 56 Standard procedures, 8, 22-23, 26, 94, 106, 114, 118-119, 151, 161, see also Routine decisions Statistical assumptions, 25 Stigmatization, 46, 47 Summarization, 56-61, 80 Surprise events, 5, 113 INDEX Surrogates and representatives, 30, 85, 88-89, 90, 123, 160, see also Participation and participants Surveys, 153, 204 and New Jersey rabies outbreak, 22 Survival rates, 57 Synergistic effects, 69 Synthesis, 7, 29-30, 32-33, 56-70, 127 129, 132 T Task forces, 165, 200-201 and New Jersey rabies outbreak, 22 Technical assistance, 4, 5, 84-85, 88, 93, 135, 160-161 Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania, nuclear accident, 48, 56, 81 Three-step deliberation methods, 91, 120, 127-129, 205-206 Time discounting technique, 48 Timetables and time constraints, 92, 130-131, 148 Training, 8-9, 164-165 Trust and mistrust, 24 of government agencies, 24, 49, 87, 115, 119 participation relative to, 119 U Uncertainty, 3, 5-6, 66-67, 101, 106-116, 158, 159 analytic methods for, 80, 108, 110- 111 and conservatism, 66-67 cultural factors and, 114-116 sources of, 5-6, 106-107, 159 suppression of, 115 unrecognized, 5-6, 107 Unfunded mandates, 42, 49 U.S. agencies, see Government agencies and public officials; other part of agency name US MAB, see Man and Biosphere Program

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INDEX Vaccination programs, 68 Valuation of ecosystems, 45, 52-53 of human life, 52 Value function, 57-59 Value judgments, 53, 70 in analytic procedures, 5, 25-26, 39, 64-65, 103-104, 105 Value-of-information analysis, 110-111 Value tree, 189, 206 W Waste Technologies, Inc. (WTI), 176 179 249 Weights and weighting methods, 26, 52, 64-66, 103-104, 189 Wide-impact risk decisions, 140-141 unique, 8, 22, 139 Working groups, 123-124, 165, 196-198 y Yucca Mountain repository site, 17-18, 39, 47-48, 80

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