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Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

Index

A

Abiyata, Lake, 508, 509

Abrupt climate change, 8, 15, 21, 534-536, 540, 600, 603

Acoustic tomography, 238, 273

Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer, 508, 509

Aerosols.

See also Sulfate aerosols;

other specific aerosols

coral records of, 498

modeling, 166

volcanic, 193-194, 196

Africa.

See also Sahel;

other specific regions and countries

droughts, 35

rainfall variability, 32-43

African Easterly Jet, 43, 47

Agadez, 35

Agassiz Ice Cap, 24, 554

Aghullas retroflection, 537

Agung, Mt., 194

Air temperature (land and marine).

See also Land temperature;

Ocean temperature;

Sea surface temperature

abrupt changes, 534-535

anomalies, 98-104, 106-109, 128, 202-203, 207

anthropogenic influences on, 92-94

and atmospheric circulation, 116, 124-128, 600

carbon dioxide and, 57, 90, 96, 97-99, 105-106, 167-168, 183, 195-196, 207, 493, 533, 573-574

century means, 26

cloud cover and, 15-16, 90-92, 93, 95

decadal-scale variability, 13, 23, 85-87, 97-110, 200, 201, 208, 209, 367, 516-517, 520, 523-532

dipole patterns, 124-125, 127

diurnal range (DTR), 81-96

dust generation and, 573

El Niño events and, 99, 103, 105-106, 115, 167, 202-204, 207, 208, 209

empirical orthogonal analysis of, 190, 200, 201, 203, 205, 272

globally averaged, 13, 57, 97-107, 121, 126, 195, 200, 204, 207, 600

gradual warming trend, 600-601

and Great Salinity Anomaly, 326

greenhouse gases and, 92-94, 95

greenhouse warming and, 54-55

and Gulf Stream, 125-126

hemispheric means, 514-516

interannual variability, 67, 103, 107-110, 203, 204, 219

latitude and, 54, 165, 200-202, 204-206, 207

marine, 105, 122-124, 514-516, 574

meridional advection, 137

microwave soundings, 200, 202, 203, 204, 206, 207, 208-209

models/modeling, 90-92, 164-165, 176

North Atlantic, 123, 125-128, 317, 434-436, 533, 534, 600, 601

North Pacific climate and, 473-474, 475-476

periodicity in, 13, 97-104

and plant microclimates, 577-579

and pressure, 124-127, 527-528

radiosonde data, 205-206, 208-209

and rainfall, 43

records, 24, 28, 131, 167, 199-200, 422, 492, 516-517

relative humidity and, 90-92

sea ice and, 189, 251

sea surface temperature and, 261

seasonal patterns, 200-202, 204-206, 210, 436, 516, 520

snow cover and, 50-55, 57, 79, 90-92

and snowfall, 73-74, 78-79

soil moisture and, 53, 57, 89-90

spectral analysis, 100-104, 105, 525-527

stratospheric (lower), 206-207

structure of, 200-202, 204-206

sulfate aerosols and, 94

sunspot cycles and, 90-92, 97-99, 178-179, 192-193, 529-530, 532, 600

surface albedo and, 51-52

and thermohaline circulation, 434-436

tree-ring reconstructions of, 25-27, 29, 117-118, 167, 492, 517-520, 523-532, 600

tropospheric, 53, 116, 200, 202-206, 207

urban heat-island effects, 14, 61, 88-89, 521, 526

volcanism and, 185-186, 195, 206-207, 208, 209

wind and, 90-92, 125-126

winter, 12, 312

Akkadian culture, 493

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

Alaska

meteorological network, 88, 89

precipitation, 55, 73, 77-78

temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 88, 89, 475, 476

Albedo, planetary, See also Atmospheric albedo 94;

Ice-albedo feedback;

Surface albedo

Alerce trees (Fitzroya cupressoides), 494

Aleutian Low System, 134, 137, 139, 146, 475, 476, 478, 479, 480, 481

Algal blooms, 568-569

Allerød-Bølling interstadial complex, 552

Along-Track Scanning Radiometer, 508

Analysis of Rapid and Recent Climate Change (ARRCC), 196, 198, 431

Antarctic Bottom Water, 366, 384, 385, 388, 396, 537

Antarctic Circumpolar Current, 119, 140, 351, 371, 388, 395, 397, 401-402, 403, 406, 527, 528

Antarctic Intermediate Water, 385, 537

Antarctica

ice, 208, 272

ice cores, 55, 119, 493

meteorological network, 201

snow cover, 50, 59

Anthropogenic changes to climate

distinguishing between natural changes and, 7, 562, 567

modeling, 421, 430

and precipitation changes, 15

Arabian Sea, 53

Arctic

climate cycle, 121, 129, 130, 237, 254-257, 261

fresh-water transport from, 313, 379-380

sea-level pressure, 260

sea ice, 243, 258, 260, 367

temperatures, 219

Arctic Climate Change Program (ACCP), 423-425

Arctic Climate System (ACSYS), 55

Arctic Institute, 252

Arctic Intermediate Water, 263, 309, 316, 383

Arctic Ocean

air temperature, 436

circulation, 289

Eurasian Basin, 286, 287

fresh-water, 311, 315

runoff into, 129, 254-255, 257, 258-259, 262, 312, 314

salinity, 322

sea ice, 254, 424

snow, 62

temperatures, 31

tracer studies, 286

Arctic Red River (city), 257

Assessment of climate change.

See also Climate-signal detection;

Instrumental record;

Models/modeling

difficulties, 6-7, 13

information sources, 2, 6

measures of change, 6

observational data plus models, 601-602

spatial dependency, 7, 30

statistical characterizations, 7

Atbara, 35

Atlantic Climate Change Program, 239, 421, 423-425

Atlantic Deep Western Boundary Current, 236, 239, 283-285, 289, 424

Atlantic Ocean.

See also North Atlantic Ocean

deep water, 303

eastern subtropical, 130

heat transport, 191, 529

models, 140, 385-397

overturning, 532

salinity, 386, 402-403, 404

surface properties, 21

temperature, 246, 260, 386, 509-510

water-mass distribution, 385

water properties, 21

wind stress, 386

Atlantic Voluntary Observing Ships Special Observing Project, 424

Atmospheric (cloud) albedo, 93, 94, 165

Atmospheric circulation.

See also Coupled atmospheric-oceanic circulation systems;

Winds;

specific features

anticyclones, 90, 116-118, 128, 132, 255, 475

biennial-scale fluctuations, 128

century-scale variations, 117-118

cyclonic, 127, 357, 360, 362

data sources, 112, 113, 117-118

decadal-scale fluctuations, 13, 116-117, 128, 189

double jet structure, 119

eddy vorticity fluxes, 478

equivalent-barotropic vertical structure, 112, 113, 116, 118

glacial-to-interglacial transition, 552, 553

Hadley cell, 41, 193, 194

and heat-flux anomalies, 119, 128, 136-139, 147-148

inherent variability in, 188-190

interannual variations, 111-116

mechanisms, 115-116

momentum flux, 115

and North Atlantic climate, 124-128, 424

North Pacific climate, 21, 347, 472-474, 476-477

Northern Hemisphere, 121

and oceanic circulation, 399

phase lags, 114

pressure and, 112, 116-117, 118, 128

proxy data on, 112, 117-118, 119

and rainfall, 41, 42, 117

and salinity, 294

and sea surface temperature, 124-128, 261, 327, 414, 424

snow cover and, 50-58, 414

Southern Hemisphere, 111-119

storm tracks, 115-116, 118, 119, 137, 473, 478

temperature and, 116, 117-118, 261

transient eddy activity, 115-116

upper-air data, 112-116

Walker circulation, 41, 356, 499

wave trains, 114-115, 116, 118

wind-stress curl, 272, 386

zonally symmetric modes, 113-114, 115-116, 118, 165

Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project, 399, 400

Atmospheric models/modeling.

See also Coupled general-circulation models;

General-circulation models

applications, 164-168, 601

baroclinic flow, 166

cloud component, 430

constraints on, 426-427

detection of forced climate signals, 175-181

deterministic, 171-172

greenhouse effect, 169-174

natural climate variability, 169-174

one-dimensional, 165

optimal filters, 177-178, 179

paleoclimatic data interpretation, 167-174

primitive-equation, 399, 426-427

sensitivity, 601

tritium fluxes, 277

types, 11, 164-166, 354

U.K. Meteorological Office Unified Model, 250

validation, 166-168, 425-426

zero-dimensional, 164-165

Atmospheric temperature.

See Air temperature

Australia

atmospheric circulation, 113, 116, 118, 119

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

Bureau of Meteorology, 116

meteorological network, 88, 113

National Climate Centre, 81

rainfall, 117

temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 85, 88

B

Baffin Bay, 130, 296

Baffin Island, 309

Baffin Island Current, 296

Bali, 500

Baltic Sea, 260, 265, 266, 267, 272

Banjul, 35

Barbados, 505

Barents Sea, 131, 254, 258, 287, 306, 325

Barium, in corals, 498

Barnes Ice Cap, 554

Barometric pressure. See Pressure

Beaufort gyre, 255, 258, 312

Beaufort Sea, 255, 257, 258, 262, 312, 314

Beaufort shelf, 257

Bedford Institute of Oceanography, 297

Bering Sea, 473

Bermuda, 270, 272, 319, 324, 499

Bermuda High, 510-511

Bermuda rise, 542

Bilma, 35

Biogeochemical processes, 351, 555-571

Biomass burning, 94

Bodö, Norway, 366

Bombay, India

mean sea level pressure, 461-463, 464, 465, 468

temperature, 462, 468

Bristlecone pines, 494

C

Cadmium, in corals, 498

California

coastal heat exchanges, 142-143, 144-145

El Niño, 565, 568, 582

fishery data, 560-561, 564-567

temperatures, 473

wind stress, 473

California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations, 564-566

California Current, 130, 303, 457, 561, 564-565, 582

Camp Century, Greenland, 24

Canada

cloud cover, 92

meteorological network, 69-71, 73, 88-89

precipitation, 55, 67-69, 71, 74, 75-76, 255, 600

rainfall, 71, 76

runoff, 254

snowfall, 73, 76, 79

streamflows, 76

temperatures, 24, 27, 28, 67, 81, 82, 84, 88-89, 200, 201, 202, 206

winds, 255

Canada basin, 258

Canadian Arctic Archipelago, 255

Canadian Climate Center, 119

Canadian high Arctic, 259

Caño, Costa Rica, 503

Cape Century, 367, 370

Cape Farewell, 295, 306

Cape Hope, 537

Carbon cycle, 8, 105, 557, 559-560

Carbon dioxide, atmospheric

air temperature and, 57, 90, 92-93, 96, 97-99, 105-106, 167-168, 178, 183, 207, 493, 533-534, 573-574

carbon-14 values, 279

and climate-change detection, 209

doubling, 18, 56, 57, 90, 92-93, 96, 167-168, 178, 183, 188, 196

and ENSO events, 105

ice-core records, 194-195, 493

interannual variations, 105

periodicities, 97-99, 106

surface temperatures and, 195-196

Carbon-isotope studies, 276, 279, 388, 496

Carbon tetrachloride, 275, 276, 279, 282

Carbonaceous aerosols, 94

Caribbean islands, 498

Caspian Sea, 242

Cave deposits, 491

Cebu Island, 498

Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere Interactions (COLA), 46

Centre for Climate and Global Change Research, 131

Chad, Lake, 38, 493, 509-510

Charleston, South Carolina, 272, 312

Charlie-Gibbs fracture zone water, 282-283, 291, 297, 302

Chemical Manufacturers Association, 277

China

cloud cover, 92

ice cores, 27-28, 29

meteorological network, 88, 89

rainfall, 45, 48

snowfall, 55, 58

temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 88, 89, 200, 201, 517

Chlorofluorocarbons, tracer studies, 275-276, 277-279, 281-282, 283 -286

Chlorophyll, 473

Chukchi Sea, 312

Circulation. See Atmospheric circulation;

Ocean circulation

Circumpolar Deep Water, 315, 385

CLIMAP program, 423, 536, 542

Climate Analysis Center, 522

Climate forcing and forcing agents

aerosols, 94

anthropogenic, 13, 174, 602

of Arctic fluctuations, 260-261

atmospheric observations, 15-16

climate sensitivity to, 172, 176, 181-186, 192, 208

Milankovitch effect, 172

natural, 13, 15-16, 178-179

ocean response to, 182-184, 534

ozone, 59

Sahel drought, 45

stochastic, 337, 338, 360-362, 382, 398-406

tidal, 106, 524

white-noise, 171, 173, 178, 362

Climate monitoring

deep ocean, 324

with corals, 495-505

issues, 15, 235

recommendations, 511, 606

tropical ocean, 495-505

systems, 15

Climate-signal detection

carbon dioxide, 105

''fingerprint" technique, 18

from glaciers, 55-56

greenhouse, 18, 530-531

models for, 178-180

signal-processing approach, 175-181, 201

Tasmanian temperatures and, 530-531

Climate System Modeling Program, 396

Cloud cover

albedo, 93, 94

ceiling height, 90

global warming and, 93, 95

modeling, 430, 433

seasonal relationships, 92

sky cover, 90

snow cover and, 52, 54, 56

and temperature, 15-16, 90-92, 93, 95, 189

Cocos, Costa Rica, 503

Cod fisheries, 239, 306-309, 317

Colorado, temperatures, 20, 22

Columbia University, 423

Commonwealth of Independent States. See Soviet Union (former)

Comprehensive Aerological Reference Data Set (CARDS), 119

Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set (COADS), 14, 119, 121-128, 131, 135, 141, 142, 147, 234-35, 242, 247, 248, 252, 308, 321, 322 , 326, 357, 466, 514

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

Conductivity-temperature-depth instruments/measurements, 238, 320

Coral records.

See also specific regions

chemical composition, 492, 496-497

dredging, 491

and ENSO activity, 190, 460, 471, 496, 498, 499-504, 505

environmental reconstructions, 496

growth rings, 118, 491

interpretation, 496-497

isotopic indicators, 497

and ocean circulation, 496, 498

and ocean surface chemistry, 496

paleoceanographic applications, 491, 496, 498-499, 504-505

and runoff, 498

and Southern Hemisphere climate, 118

temperature reconstructions, 496, 497, 498, 505

tracer studies, 279-280, 460, 496-498

tropical climate monitoring with, 495-505

and water-mass transport, 279-280, 498

Coupled atmospheric-oceanic circulation systems.

See also Coupled general-circulation models;

El Niño/Southern Oscillation

decadal-scale fluctuations, 128-129

decade-to-century scale variability, 419-431

imbalances in, 99

interannual variability, 420-421

meridional modes, 189

natural variability, 188, 190-191

North Pacific, 472-482

research programs, 423

and thermohaline circulation, 131

winter, 121

Coupled general-circulation models

air temperature, 434-436

Antarctic Circumpolar Current response, 401-402

applications, 337

Atlantic Ocean, 420

atmospheric components, 399-400, 404-405, 433, 440, 444, 449

autoregressive analysis, 449-451, 453, 454, 457

boundary-layer processes, 417

cloud cover, 433

component parameterization, 399, 425-429

deep ocean in, 178

density (ocean) component, 399, 436-439

ENSO processes, 415-416, 416-417, 421, 429, 439, 442-457

flux corrections, 439, 440

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL), 53, 353, 360, 380-381, 426, 429, 433-440, 529, 535

greenhouse effect, 416

gyre transports, 438-439

Hamburg, 119, 399, 406, 429

history, 415-416

interannual variability, 444

interdecadal variability, 337-338, 416, 432-441

intermediate-time-scale, 426-427

low-frequency variability, 251

Mikolajewicz-Maier-Reimer model, 399-401

mixed-layer processes, 417

North Atlantic, 337-338, 432-441

North Pacific, 416

oceanic components, 399, 433, 444

problems/issues, 251, 414, 416, 417, 419-431

research needs, 417-418

salinity component, 416, 434-436, 441

sea-ice component, 399, 433, 441

sea surface temperature, 417, 434-436, 444-445

solar forcing, 415

surface-flux adjustments, 433

thermohaline circulation, 130, 131, 171, 380-381, 399, 416, 417, 432-441

tropical Pacific Ocean, 1

validation, 425-429, 433

Zebiak-Cane, 443-457

Crosby, Nebraska, 63

Cryosphere.

See also Sea ice;

Snow cover

influence on climate processes, 8

C.S.S. Hudson,297, 298

Cyclones, 52, 90, 91, 311, 313

D

Dakar, 35

Danish Meteorological Institute, 254, 258

Dansgaard-Oeschger events, 543

Darwin, sea level pressure, 461, 464, 465, 501

Data archeology, 14

Davis Strait, 296

Denison, Iowa, 58, 61, 62

Denmark

cloud cover, 92

temperatures, 87

Denmark Strait, 239, 282-283, 286, 289, 290, 295, 297, 300, 302, 303, 305-317, 537, 538

Denmark Strait Overflow Water, 282-283, 291, 317, 383

Density, ocean

modeling, 399

North Atlantic, 436-439

salinity and, 291, 292, 293

thermohaline circulation and, 436-439

Desertification, 46, 48, 89-90

Devon Island Ice Cap, 24, 259, 554

Documenting climate variations.

See also Instrumental record

pre-instrumental period, 23-28

twentieth century vs. previous centuries, 17-31

Drake Passage, 402, 404, 405, 537

Droughts

African, 35

causes, 45, 46, 500

Dust Bowl period, 6, 12, 19, 468, 469

paleolimnological record, 510-511

reversal, 47

Sahel, 12, 15, 19, 21. 37, 41, 42, 44-48, 468, 469

sea surface temperatures and, 41, 45

Dunde Ice Cap, 24, 27-28, 29, 549, 550, 554

Dupree, South Dakota, 61, 63

Dust generation

and rainfall, 43, 47, 48

and temperature, 573

volcanic, 184-185

E

Earth Observing System (EOS), 14-15

Earth Resources Satellite-1, 508

East Africa, rainfall, 34, 35, 38, 39, 41

East Australian Current. 528

East Greenland Current, 255, 258, 294, 295, 310, 311, 312, 325, 379 , 382

East Icelandic Current, 310

Ecological effects of climate change, 555-567, 572-582

Ecosystem changes, marine.

See also Plants

anthropogenic sources, 567

California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations, 564-566

community structure and, 559-560

competition/predation theory, 558-559

continuous plankton recorder surveys, 563-564

direct measurement of, 562-567

fishery data, 239, 306-309, 318, 317, 473, 492, 560-562, 564-566

nitrogen-flow model, 351-352

perturbations and, 558-559

plankton, 457, 473, 492, 537-541, 556, 557, 563-564, 568-570

as proxy indicators of climate change, 239, 306-309, 317, 473, 491

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

Scripps pier data, 566-567

sediment records, 562

trophic structure and, 559-560

Ecuador, rainfall, 466

Ekman, V. W., 318

Ekman drift, 397

Ekman transport, 369-370

El Chichón, 59, 194, 196, 206-207

El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon.

See also Southern Oscillation;

TOGA Program

base-state forcings, 443, 445-448, 453, 457, 459, 463-465, 466, 468 , 469, 470

biological responses to, 457

century-scale variability, 416, 465-466, 469, 501-503

chaotic nonlinear dynamics, 449, 468

characteristics, 6-7, 53, 190, 499

and climate change, 197, 453

coral records, 496, 498, 499-504, 505

cycle, 355, 442-471, 499, 502-503, 509

historical records, 459, 460

instrument data, 460, 461-466

intensity, 465-466, 468, 469

interdecadal-scale variability, 416, 456

internal dynamics, 451-452

La Niña events, 473, 478, 481

and lake-level and surface-area changes, 508-509

mechanisms, 443-445, 459-460

models/modeling, 242, 246, 247, 400, 416-417, 418, 426, 429, 439, 442-457

natural "noise" and, 443, 448-451, 453, 456, 457

and North Pacific climate, 473, 478-481

and ocean circulation, 499, 500

origin of, 99

prediction, 2, 181, 235, 448

proxy data, 453-454, 459, 460-461, 471, 496, 498, 550

and rainfall patterns, 39, 41, 48, 442-443, 453, 460, 461, 464, 466 , 468-469, 470, 499, 500, 501-502

regional recurrence, 466, 469

research needs, 471

and sea level changes, 230, 271, 499

and sea level pressure, 459, 460, 461-466, 468, 479-480, 501

seasonal variations, 448

secular variability, 458-471

snow cover and, 53-54, 55

spatial patterns, 209, 500

sunspot activity and, 193, 443, 509

temperature and, 31, 53, 99, 103, 105-106, 115, 167, 190, 202-204, 207, 208, 209, 246, 355-356, 444-448, 450, 454, 459, 460, 461-462, 464-468, 470-471, 478, 499, 500, 502, 515-516

and thermohaline circulation, 470

tracer studies, 500-501

underwater tectonic activity and, 443

volcanic eruptions and, 443, 471

wind forcing, 452, 499

Eliassen-Palm theorems, 341

Energy-balance models, 165, 176, 178, 181-182, 364

England

central, temperature changes, 24, 28, 131, 167, 259, 517, 532

fossil records, 534, 535

English Channel, 563

EPOCS program, 421, 423

ERICA program, 423

Erika Dan, 297

Espiritu Santo Island, 498

Eurasia

runoff, 262

snow cover, 51-53, 54, 64, 66

temperatures, 19-20, 22, 28, 191

Eurasian Basin Bottom Water, 287

Eurasian Basin Deep Water, 287

Eurasian shelf, 257, 258

Eurocore project, 550

Europe

aerosol forcing, 94

cloud cover, 92

cyclones, 52

polar seas, 286-288

precipitation, 191

re-analysis modeling projects, 16

temperatures, 81, 86, 123, 191, 516-517, 520, 522

European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, 53, 113, 114, 115, 119, 141

Evaporation, 93, 368, 478

F

Faeroe Bank Channel, 293, 297

Faeroe Ridge, 304, 538

Faeroe-Shetland Channel, 292, 294, 306, 309, 325, 537

Fennoscandia, temperature reconstructions, 518-519, 522

Fickian relationships, 340, 341, 344

Filcher ice shelf, 262

Finland, temperatures, 85

Fisheries, 239, 306-309, 318, 317, 473, 492, 560-562, 564-566

Floods, African river, 37

Florida, temperatures, 473, 475

Florida Bay, 498

Florida State University, 141

Food webs, 559-560

Fossil record

coleoptera assemblages, 534, 535, 545

plankton assemblages, 537-541

Fram Strait, 259, 316, 424

Fylla Bank, 300

G

Galapagos archipelago, corals, 498, 500, 501, 503-504, 505

GATE program, 423

General-circulation models.

See also Atmospheric models;

Coupled general-circulation models;

Ocean models

assessment of, 56-57

CO2 doubling, 90, 92-93, 96

COLA model, 46

diurnal temperature range, 90, 92-94, 96

GISS, 189-197, 535

greenhouse-warming projections, 18

land masks, 59

mixed-layer ocean, 189

polar amplification of climate perturbations, 165

ramp warming, 174

runoff in, 56

Sahel drought, 45, 46-47

signal-to-noise ratios, 59

soil moisture in, 56

snow feedbacks, 52-54, 56-57, 58, 59

Southern Hemisphere atmospheric, 115-116, 119

sunspot cycles in, 191-193

of surface temperature, 176

three-dimensional, 166

two-dimensional, 165-166

volcanic eruptions in, 184-185

Geochemical Ocean Sections (GEOSECS) program, 290, 291

Geopotential, anomalies, 112, 113-114, 115, 426

German Bight, 567, 568

Glacial-to-interglacial transition, 545, 552-553

Glaciers, 16, 27, 55-56, 191, 259

Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), 15, 336

Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (GOALS) Program, 336, 423

Global Ocean Observing System, 239, 288, 336

Global Sea Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) data set

assessment of, 227-228, 246-247

creation, 242

modeling with, 250, 535-536

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

quality control, 242-246

revisions to, 247-248

Global Telecommunications System (GTS), 68, 81

Global Weather Experiment, 115

Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 54

Grand Banks (Newfoundland), 291, 293, 294, 296

Great Barrier Reef, 498-499

Great Lakes, 358

Great Ocean Conveyor loop, 537

Great Salinity Anomaly

Arctic climate cycle and, 121, 254-255, 259

biological effects, 309-310

causes, 191, 239

chronology, 309-310

convection, 288-289, 383

and deep-water formation, 121, 190, 239, 382

defined, 254, 291

ice and salinity anomalies, 255-261, 311-312

Iceland Sea freshening, 383

path, 299-300, 302, 309, 317, 325

periodicity, 313-314, 315, 322

pressures and, 310-311, 316

sea ice and, 131, 239, 255, 311-312

and temperature, 190, 255, 326

and thermohaline circulation, 316

time span, 21, 326

tree-ring reconstructions, 326-327

Great Salt Lake, 358

Greenhouse effect

detection of, 169-174, 179, 530-531

ENSO phenomenon and, 453

modeling, 416

paleoclimatic record, 172-174

temperatures, 18, 512, 576-577

tropospheric water vapor and, 15

Greenhouse gases.

See also specific gases

counteracting factors, 18

models/modeling, 166

and natural climate variability, 188, 194-196, 198

and precipitation, 15

sensitivity of climate to, 208

and soil moisture, 93

and temperature, 92-94, 95

Greenland

biological exchanges between Iceland and, 306-309

cod fishery, 306, 317

cyclones, 52

ice cores, 194, 259, 367, 534, 535, 540, 550-553, 600

ice sheet, 272, 363, 492-493, 521, 540

Ice Core Project (GRIP), 550

Ice Sheet Project (GISP), 55, 543, 545, 546, 548, 550

pressures, 310-311, 316

snow cover, 64

temperatures, 24, 27, 28, 59, 600

Greenland High, 311, 313

Greenland Ridge, 311

Greenland-Scotland Ridge, 315, 383

Greenland Sea

chlorofluorocarbons, 278

convection, 259-260, 315, 316, 317, 382

deep-water formation, 286, 287, 303, 366, 382

density, 438

freshening, 311

model, 131

overturning, 378

salinity, 255, 258-259, 289, 293, 294, 309, 310, 312, 325, 382

sea ice, 189, 254, 255, 256, 257, 258-259, 260, 261, 262, 312, 314

temperatures, 316

tracer studies, 286-288

warming trend, 130

Greenland Sea Deep Water, 286, 287, 316

Greenland Sea Surface Water, 287

Guinea Coast, rainfall, 34, 38

Gulf of

Alaska, 144, 473, 476

California, 503

Chiriquí, 503

Mexico, 137, 139, 403

Panama, 498, 503

Gulf Stream

and air temperature, 207

models/modeling, 353-354

North Atlantic winter patterns, 125-128

recirculation, 319

separation structure, 343, 345

temperatures, 122, 123, 125-126, 130, 132, 272

transport changes, 130

Guliya ice caps, 554

H

Haline catastrophe theory, 315.

See also Polar halocline catastrophe

Halocarbons, tracer studies, 275-276, 277-279.

See also Carbon tetrachloride;

Chlorofluorocarbons

Healy, Kansas, 63

Heat exchange.

See also Evaporation

air-sea, 19, 121, 134-139

data sources, 134-135, 423

modeling, 381, 430

North Atlantic conveyor belt, 533, 534-535, 536-537

Pacific basin, 134-139, 142-144, 478

parameterizations, 134, 135-136, 147

poleward heat transport, 366-367, 371, 375-376, 379

standing-eddy poleward transport, 261

thermohaline circulation and, 19, 366-367, 369-370, 375-376, 384, 391, 394, 427, 528-529

Heat fluxes

anomalies, 136-139, 141

Atlantic conveyor, 536-537

atmospheric circulation and, 119, 128, 136-139, 147-148, 165, 440

errors in, 135-136

calculations, 135-136, 142, 219

interior of the earth, 95

latent, 119, 128

monthly variability, 134

Pacific Ocean, 134, 473, 474, 476

sea surface temperature and, 134, 137-139, 141, 143, 147, 219-221

total surface, 141

vertical distribution, 165

Historical documents, climate reconstructions from, 420, 460, 492, 493, 516, 517, 602

Hobart, sea level pressure, 527-528

Holocene epoch, 259, 363, 550-551, 552, 553

Huaynaputina eruption, 549

Human activities, and Sahel drought, 46, 48

Humidity, 90-92

Hurricanes, 367

Hydrological cycle, 8, 74, 261, 362

Hydrological model, 277

Hydrology, surface, snow cover and, 53

I

Ice. See Sea ice

Ice Age, 315, 317, 362

Ice-albedo feedback, 1, 8, 15, 57, 165

Ice cores.

See also Oxygen-isotope records

applications, 492

and atmospheric carbon dioxide, 167, 194-195, 493

century-to-millennial-scale climate variability, 366

decade-to-century-scale climate variability, 544-554

electroconductivity, 543, 548, 552, 554

ENSO cycles, 454, 461, 550

as environmental archives. 545-547

interpretation, 547, 551

limitations, 31, 493, 521

nonpolar, 547-550

North Atlantic climate, 367, 492-493, 534

ocean circulation data, 370

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

polar, 530-553

precipitation reconstructions, 55, 259, 550

properties measured in, 548, 551

research literature, 546

seasonal cycles, 31

sensitivity, 521

source of records, 24, 27-28, 259

Southern Hemisphere climate, 118, 119

sunspot cycles, 192

temperature reconstructions, 29, 167, 493, 517, 521, 534, 535, 574-575, 581, 600

time span, 554

Ice sheets, 61, 398, 521

Iceland, 127, 131, 167, 306-309, 312, 314, 517

Iceland low, 311

Iceland-Scotland Overflow, 291, 383

Iceland Sea

convection, 315, 316, 383

deep-water formation, 366, 537

overturning, 378

salinity anomalies, 254, 289, 294, 312-313, 314, 325, 379

sea ice, 255, 256, 257, 258-259, 260, 551, 552

temperatures, 314, 551, 552

tritium/krypton ratios, 282

India

cloud cover, 92

rainfall, 45, 48, 51-52, 53, 442-443, 453, 468-469

Indian Ocean, 113, 246, 260, 404, 493, 509, 510

Indonesian Low, 499, 500, 501

Indo-Pacific Deep Water, 315

Infrared imagery, 238

Institute of Hydrology, 509

Instrumental record

ENSO phenomenon, 460, 461-466

limitations, 421-423

literature review, 461

ocean hydrographic and current structure, 423

operational data, 602-603

representativeness, 2, 6, 600

singular spectrum analysis, 462-463

span, 10, 12, 13-14, 429, 516

temperature, 18-23, 421-423, 516

time-series analysis, 461-462

Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission, 319

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), 56-57, 81, 89, 119, 167-168, 184, 209, 475, 573, 576, 581

International Council for the Exploration of the Sea, 318

International Geophysical Year, 237

International Satellite Cloud Cover Project (ISCCP), 14, 15, 95, 96

Intertropical Convergence Zone, 277, 366

Ireland, rainfall, 327

Irminger Current, 296, 306, 308, 309, 316

Irminger Sea, 239, 254, 255, 258, 291, 296, 297, 303, 305-317

Irrigation, 14, 89

J

Japan

cloud cover, 92

marine observations, 247

meteorological network, 88, 89

temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 85, 88, 89, 95

Japanese Meteorological Institute, 53

K

Kalahari region, rainfall, 34, 38, 39, 42

Kansas, snow cover, 61

Kanton Island, 504, 505

Katmai eruption, 185, 207

Kelvin waves, 351, 443

Kenya, rainfall, 35, 40

Khartoum, 35

Klementinum Observatory, 85-87

Koch ice index, 131, 167, 259, 312, 313, 314

Krakatoa eruption, 184, 185

Krypton, 276, 279, 282-283

Ksudach eruption, 207

L

Labrador Basin, 302

Labrador Current, 295, 296, 297, 325

Labrador Sea

circulation, 291, 295-296, 297, 326

cod-larvae drift, 309

convection, 283, 302, 313, 376, 378-379, 438

deep-water formation, 121, 291, 319, 375, 379, 381, 536-537, 538

density anomalies, 438

meridional geostrophic flow, 376-377

model, 380, 382

overturning, 375, 376-377, 379

pressure, 379

salinity, 293, 294, 295-304, 325

sea-ice extent, 121, 129, 130, 131, 189, 258-259, 314

temperature, 298, 301

and thermohaline circulation, 263, 384, 395

topography, 380

Labrador Sea Water

chlorofluorocarbons, 278

convection, 299

density, 298-299

freshening, 383

properties, 296-297

salinity, 239, 291, 297, 299, 300, 302

transports, 262, 302, 303

Lake levels and surface area

and decade-to-century variability, 506-511

and drought, 510-511

and ENSO phenomenon, 508-509

evidence for past fluctuations, 508

monitoring recommendations, 511

and ocean-atmosphere interactions, 493

and precipitation, 492

satellite imaging, 508, 509

sea surface temperatures and, 509-510

and surface water balance, 507-508

temperature reconstructions from, 118

and tropical climate, 506-511

Land-surface feedback

and rainfall variability, 41-43, 46

Sahelian, 15, 41-43, 45-46

snow and, 53-54

temperature and, 54

Land temperature (surface air).

See also Air temperature

anomalies, 19-21, 85, 87, 202-203, 356

area-mean indices, 18-21

atmospheric circulation and, 117-118

daily, 81, 82-85

data quality, 81, 87-88

decadal-scale variability, 18-21, 25-27, 209

desertification and, 89-90

ENSO signal and, 202, 203-204

globally averaged, 82, 89, 204

hemispheric means, 513-514

interannual variability, 12, 18-19, 21-23, 26-27, 29, 82-87

irrigation and, 14, 89

mean maximum and minimum, 81, 82-88

measurement, 14, 88-89, 513

monthly means, 82, 84

oxygen isotope record, 24, 27-28

seasonal patterns, 18-19, 25, 27, 28, 29, 82-85, 87, 201, 513-514, 600

spatial patterns, 19-20, 21-23, 29, 82-85, 600

sunspot cycle and, 15

urban heat islands and, 14, 88-89, 95

variability indexes, 27, 31, 124-128

volcanic eruptions and, 195

zonally averaged, 356

Lanzhou Institute of Glaciology and Geocryology, 61

Larson ice shelf, 262

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

Little Ice Age, 6, 28, 29, 37, 38, 55, 191, 192, 194, 195-196, 198, 272, 420, 466, 492, 524, 527, 530, 532, 547, 552, 574, 581-582

Logan, Mt., 354

M

Mackenzie River, 257, 262, 312

Madras, India, pressure, 464

Malawi, Lake, 493, 507, 510

Manganese, in corals, 498

Marshes, 491

Measurement.

See also Networks, meteorological

accuracies, 238

of chlorofluorocarbons, 275, 276, 278

measurement, 515

of precipitation, 68-70, 76

of salinity, 238

sea level, 237-238, 270

ship-based observations, 14, 119, 121, 134, 234-235

of snow cover, 14, 54, 64

of temperature, 14, 121, 200, 206, 242, 238, 273, 319-320

of water velocity, 238

Medieval Warm Period, 38, 524, 527, 530, 551, 552

Mediterranean area, winter, 420

Mediterranean Outflow, 303

Mediterranean Water, 302, 385

Meteor, 237

Meteorological Office Historical Sea Surface Temperature (MOHSST)

Data Set, 222-226, 242, 247, 251, 252

Methane, 195

Methodologies

averaging processes, 30, 33, 176-178

empirical-orthogonal-function analysis, 121, 122-124, 132, 136-139, 142, 148-149, 167, 176, 177-178, 180, 181, 190, 200, 201, 203, 260

maximum entropy, 100-104

mean-square-error formalism, 176-177

multi-taper method, 166-167

principal-component analysis, 112-114

rainfall averaging, 33

signal-processing approach, 175-181

singular spectrum analysis, 167, 181, 462-463

temperature averaging, 30, 99-100, 121-124, 176-178

theoretical-orthogonal-function analysis, 178-179, 180, 181

tracer studies, 274-289

tree growth, conversion to temperature, 24-25

validation, 166-168, 602

Microwave radiation

snow charting, 14, 62-63

temperature soundings, 200, 202, 204, 206, 238

Milcent, Greenland, 24

Ministerial North Sea Conference, 568

Minnesota, temperatures, 517

Miragoane, Lake, 510

Models/modeling.

See also Atmospheric models;

Coupled general-circulation models;

General-circulation models;

Ocean models;

Radiative-convective models

adjustments to data, 14

applications, 601

averaging artifacts, 59

diurnal temperature range, 90-92

importance, 2, 7

needs, 603

numerical, 374-375, 425-429, 431

re-analysis projects, 16

recommendations, 2, 606-607

sea ice, 140

stochastic, 355-364

target phenomena, 425-426, 429

temperature projections, 575-576

thermodynamic, 138, 165-166, 203, 210

Monin-Obukhov similarity theory, 347

Monitoring. See Climate monitoring;

Networks

Monsoons

African-Asian, 45

Asian, 51-52, 53, 442-443, 453, 496

ENSO and, 442-443, 453, 464, 468-469, 470

snow cover and, 51-52, 53

Southeast Asia, 53

Monthly Climatic Data of the World, 81

Mt. Pinatubo, 59

Mullard Space Science Laboratory, 508, 511

N

Nansen casts, 320

Napoleon, North Dakota, 78

Nashville, Tennessee, 312

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

GISS model, 227-228, 242-247, 535

snow charts, 14, 64

National Center for Atmospheric Research, 57, 95, 119, 181

National Climatic Data Center, 20, 22

National Meteorological Center, 64, 205, 206, 400, 404-405

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)

Atlantic Climate Change Program, 239, 421, 423-425, 431

Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory, 278-279

data archeology, 14

data digitization, 326

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model, 53, 353, 360, 380-381, 426, 429, 433-440, 529

sea surface temperatures, 247-248

snow charts, 14, 58, 61, 63-64

National Oceanographic Data Center, 319

National Science Foundation, data archeology, 14

National Snow and Ice Data Center (U.S. NSIDC), 61

National Weather Service (U.S.) stations, 68

Natural climate variability

Arctic cycle and, 259-260

biosphere and, 8

causes, 7, 187-198

century-to-millennial scale, 366-367

climate change distinguished from, 6-7, 18, 19, 167-174, 461, 602

climate sensitivity and, 172

cryosphere and, 8

data needs, 602-603

decade-to-century scale, 398-406, 419-431

decadal-to-interdecadal scale, 367

defined, 1

geographic distribution, 196

inherent, 188-190, 198

issues, 6, 15, 606

land-surface processes and, 8

modeling, 167-168, 171-172, 187-198

ocean's role in, 234-235

passive internal, 171-172

quantifying, 170-172

types of variations, 6

variances, 21, 601

volcanic aerosols and, 188, 193-194

Nebraska, snow cover. 61, 63

Nedre Sodertälje, 266, 268

Nema, 35

Networks, meteorological/climatological

automated surface-observing systems, 77, 88

Canadian, 69-71, 73, 88-89

deep-water station, 237, 284

elevation of stations, 72, 76

global acoustic, 273

hydrographic-geochemical, 291

precipitation, 48, 61, 69-70

reference stations, 86

sea-level records, 268, 269

selection for studies, 69-70, 76

snowfall, 69

Southern Hemisphere, 112

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

station sites/siting, 48, 61, 77, 88-89, 119, 268

U.S. Historical Climatology Network, 69-70, 72, 77, 90

WMO/IAEA, 277

New Brunswick, New Jersey, 78-79

New Haven, Connecticut, temperatures, 517

New Orleans, Louisiana, 312

New Zealand, rainfall, 117

Newfoundland

sea ice, 255

temperatures, 123, 124, 125, 126, 128, 129, 139, 255

Niger Delta, 37

Niger River, 37

Nile River, 37, 38

Nome, Alaska, 366

NORPAX program, 237

North America.

See also Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern;

individual countries

cyclones, 52

droughts, 6, 12, 19, 52, 82, 85, 468-469, 470

precipitation, 14, 67-71, 73, 74-76, 255

runoff, 254-255, 258-259, 312, 314

snow cover, 52, 54-55, 61, 64, 66

snowfall, 53, 71-74, 76

streamflows, 76

temperatures, 19-20, 22, 24, 25, 28, 54, 81, 88, 134, 209, 473, 477, 516, 517, 522

North Atlantic Central Water, 306

North Atlantic Current, 295, 296, 319

North Atlantic Deep Water

circulation, 291, 319, 367, 385, 402-403

density, 301

fluxes, 304

formation, 263, 304, 319, 366, 367, 536-537, 538

glaciations and, 366

interruption of production, 303

millennial-scale changes, 315, 367

modeling, 396

net export, 537

salinity changes, 293, 299

sources, 239, 258, 291

Sverdrup transport, 262

thermohaline circulation and, 384

Younger Dryas cooling event and, 190-191, 538, 540

North Atlantic Drift, 294

North Atlantic Ocean

air-sea interactions, 121, 356-357, 359

air temperatures, 123, 125-128, 317, 533, 534, 600, 601

atmospheric circulation influences, 124-128, 424

century-scale variability, 366-367

climate variability, 355-364, 533-534, 571, 600

deep convection, 420

deep-water production, 198, 236, 239, 290, 302, 314-316, 327, 366

density variations, 324, 347, 421, 436-439

dipole pattern, 124-125

fishery data, 571

fresh-water flux, 366, 367, 371, 379-389

Gulf Stream pattern, 125-128, 07

heat transport, 533, 534-535, 536-537

interannual variability, 318-319, 420-421

interdecadal variability, 318-327, 374-380, 421, 424, 432-441

models, 337-338, 355-364, 374-380, 432-441

ocean temperature, 319-323

overturning, 337-338, 358-359, 372, 375, 376, 433-434

plankton surveys, 563-564, 571

poleward heat transport, 356, 379

pressures, 424

proxy records, 537-541

salinity, 21, 121, 131, 190, 191, 207, 239, 254, 290-294, 302, 309-314, 319-326, 359, 367, 434-436, 534-535, 600

sea level pressures, 260, 420

structural changes, 420, 533-543

surface circulation, 537-541

surface temperatures, 122-128, 131, 139, 191, 260, 321-322, 420, 424, 433-436, 510, 533, 581

topography, 380

thermohaline circulation, 261, 337-338, 359-360, 366-383, 375-379, 380-381, 433-434, 534

ventilation, 291

winds, 249-250, 366, 424, 600

winter climate, 120-132, 424

Younger Dryas cooling event, 190-191, 367

North Atlantic Oscillation, 126-127, 130, 311, 312, 314, 317

North Dakota, snow cover, 61

North Pacific Ocean

atmospheric circulation, 21, 347, 472-474, 475, 476-478

climate shifts, 14, 15, 21, 146-147, 148, 600

decadal-scale variability, 416, 472-482

ecosystem changes, 473

ENSO effects, 473, 478-481

heat exchanges, 142-143, 478, 478

mixed-layer depth, 140, 142-143

model, 347-349, 426

North American teleconnections, 472, 474, 475-477

ocean circulation, 475

pressure anomalies, 137, 139, 473, 474-476

salinity, 302

seasonal considerations, 475-476, 477-478

subarctic gyre, 276

subtropical gyre, 134

Sverdrup transport, 473, 475, 480, 481

temperature, 14, 78, 134, 138, 141, 142-144, 145-146, 206, 246, 426, 473-474, 475-476, 478

Tropical Pacific climate and, 473, 478-480

wind stresses, 472, 474, 475, 476, 482

North Sea, 267, 538-539, 559, 563, 564, 568-569

Northeast Atlantic Deep Water (NEADW), 297, 298, 300, 301, 302

Northern Gyre, 309

Northern Hemisphere

aerosol forcings, 94, 208

atmospheric circulation, 121

decadal-scale climate variations, 356

halocarbons, 277, 278, 279, 281, 282

heat transport, 261

instrumental record for, 422-423

krypton concentrations, 279

Little Ice Age, 38

pressure, 479

snow cover, 50, 54, 58, 62, 63, 64-65, 79

snowfall, 73-74

temperatures, 18-21, 73-74, 79, 82, 200-202, 204-207, 208, 209, 356, 513-514, 515, 518-519, 520, 535

Northern Oscillation, 459

Northwest Atlantic Bottom Water (NWABW), 297, 298, 301, 302

Norwegian Atlantic Current, 309

Norwegian Sea, 198, 232, 286-288, 294, 297, 310, 315, 366, 378, 379, 438, 538, 539

Norwegian Sea Deep Water, 286, 287

Norwegian Sea Surface Water, 287

Nouakchott, 35

Novaya Zemlya, 554

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

O

Ocean circulation.

See also Coupled atmospheric-oceanic circulation system;

Gulf Stream;

Thermohaline circulation;

and specific currents, gyres, and other features

abrupt changes in, 534-536

advection, 134, 143, 145-146, 147, 220, 371, 403-404

advectively dominated boundary currents, 283

and biological exchanges, 306-309

boundary conditions, 367-368, 381

buoyancy, 348

convection, 304

core method, 237, 238

current velocities, 286

deep water, 2, 121, 198, 237, 238, 289, 290-294, 304

diffusion processes, 141, 143, 146, 313, 368-370, 383

equatorial downwelling, 368

horizontal structure, 403-404

intermediate-water component, 430

internal-wave breaking, 348, 350

isopycnals, 283

material-property mixing, 351

meridional structure, 261, 402-403

mesoscale eddies, 337, 341-344

mixed-layer depth, 140, 142-143, 145-146, 150, 182, 189, 196

overturning, 261, 289, 348, 368, 370, 371

paleoclimatic records, 196

planetary boundary-layer turbulence, 344-348, 353

salinity and, 534-535

shear, 348

sunspot activity and, 503

Sverdrup transport, 294, 473, 475, 480, 481

topographical form stress, 350-351

tracer studies, 274-289, 340, 384-385, 496

upwelling changes, 209, 496, 498, 499, 500, 503

ventilation, 281, 291

vertical mixing/entrainment, 128, 140, 142-143, 144, 145, 147, 148, 220, 303, 304, 348-350, 498

VHR radiometer imaging, 232

water-mass age indicators, 280-281, 283, 285

western boundary currents, 370-371

wind-driven, 341-344

Ocean models/modeling.

See also Coupled general-circulation models

Barents-Greenland Sea, 131

biogeochemical processes, 351

Boolean delay equation, 255

boundary conditions, 337, 367-368, 381, 385-386, 391, 392, 393

boundary wave guide, 351

Bryan-Cox OGCM, 374, 385

century time scales, 370

cloudiness, 141

constraints, 380, 426

current velocities, 389-390

data sources, 134-135, 140-141

decadal-to-interdecadal variability, 370-373

diffusive time-scale variability, 368-370

ecosystem, 351-352

forcing agents, 15, 140, 141, 148

fresh-water fluxes, 368, 369, 370, 373, 380

Hasselmann's model, 336, 357-358, 361, 363, 364, 430

heat-flux parameterization, 135-136, 141, 381, 391

ICE-3G, 235

interior vertical mixing, 348-350

intermediate-water formation, 382-383

internal ocean variability, 365-383

marine-weather-data adjustments, 141-142

material property mixing, 351

meridional overturning, 340

mesoscale eddies, 341-344, 380

mixed-layer depth, 140, 142-143, 145-146, 150

Modular Ocean Model, 385-386

North Atlantic circulation, 366, 373, 374-380

North Pacific basin, 15, 134-135, 140-147

numerical models, 374-375, 384

Oberhuber isopycnic ocean, 133-135, 140-147

overturning variability, 370-372

planetary boundary layers, 344-348, 353

planetary geostrophic model, 370

principles, 340-341

runoff component, 380, 406

salinity, 140, 141, 149, 358, 374, 386, 391, 392-393

sectoral, 427, 428

sea-ice parameterization, 351

semi-Lagrangian approaches, 354

spin-up period, 140-141, 368

stochastic forcing, 398-406

Stommel's model, 324, 337, 356-357, 358-359, 360, 363

stratification of layers, 363

sub-grid-scale parameterizations, 339-354

temperatures, 141, 374, 386-388, 390-391

thermally dominated regimes, 360-362

thermocline maintenance, 426

thermohaline circulation, 121, 355-364, 366, 367-374, 385-397, 399, 427, 433, 601

topography component, 350-351, 374, 380, 382, 430

turbulent kinetic energy, 140, 141

two-hemisphere sector, 385-397

types and applications, 336-338

vertical diffusivity, 340, 346-347, 389-390

wind stresses, 140, 141, 374, 380, 386, 399

wind/temperature relationships, 124

zonally symmetric forcing, 382

Ocean Polar Front, 319, 322

Ocean temperature.

See also Sea surface temperature

annual mean, 319-323

atmospheric circulation and, 119

averaging, 320-321

deep-water, 322-324, 327

interdecadal variability, 239, 318-323

Labrador Sea, 300-301

North Atlantic Ocean, 319-324

and plankton abundance, 563, 565, 566

and salinity, 285, 294, 319-324, 402

speed-of-sound measurements of, 238, 273

tides and, 106

time series, 237

upper ocean, 319-322

Ocean Weather Ship/Station

Bravo, 297, 299, 313, 325, 326

Charlie, 319-323, 325, 326, 327

India, 433, 434

Papa, 347

S, 319, 323, 324

Oceanographic data.

See also Ocean temperature;

Salinity;

Sea surface temperature;

Winds

bathythermographs, 237, 319-320, 321

history of observations, 237-238

hydrographic, 237, 319-320

instrument technology, 238-239

record, 12-13

surface marine, 241-252

Oregon Graduate Center, 278-279

Oshkosh, Nebraska, 61, 63

Oxygen-isotope records. 24, 27-28, 29, 259, 367, 420, 496, 500-503, 517, 521, 534, 535, 540. 545, 550, 574

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

Ozone, 59

Ozone depletion, 165

P

Pacific-North American teleconnection pattern, 137, 139, 146, 200-201, 205, 416, 472, 473, 474, 475-477, 480

Pacific Ocean.

See also North Pacific Ocean;

Tropical Pacific Ocean

air-sea heat exchange, 134-139

atmospheric-circulation anomalies, 115, 118, 140-141

circulation, 327, 404

heat balances, 202, 529

mixed-layer depth, 140

model, 140-147

salinity, 140, 402

seasonal-to-interannual fluctuations, 133-150

surface temperatures, 137-139, 203, 246, 260

surface variability, 134

turbulent kinetic energy, 140

wind stresses, 140-141

Pakistan, temperatures, 87

Paleoclimatic record.

See also Proxy records

and ENSO phenomenon, 453-454, 460-461

and greenhouse effect, 172-174

interpretation, 23, 24-25, 172-174, 196

models applied to, 166, 167

needs, 602

usefulness, 19

Paleo-ENSO International Symposium, 460

Panama Basin, 503

Panel on Policy Implications of Greenhouse Warming, 579

Past Global Changes project (PAGES), 425, 427

Patagonia, Argentina, temperatures, 24, 518-519

Pátzcuaro, Lake, 493, 510

Permanent Service for Mean Sea Level, 265, 267

Peru

ice cores, 24, 27-28, 29

rainfall, 466, 469

Phase lags, 105, 114, 174, 202-203, 248, 258-259, 300, 312, 314, 367

Philippines, 498

Pic du Midi de Bigorre Observatory, 87, 92

Pilot balloon data, 48

Pinatubo, Mt., 184-185, 194, 206-207

Planetary Upper-air Frontal Zone, 51

Planetary waves, 475, 477

Plankton, 457, 473, 492, 537-541, 556, 557, 563-566, 568-570

Plants

effects of short-scale climate fluctuations, 577

microclimatic requirements, 576-577

spatial variations in microclimate, 577-578

Point Barrow, Alaska, 276

Polar Deep Water, 316

Polar Front, 385, 537-538

Polar gyres, 481

Polar halocline catastrophe, 361, 368, 370, 380

Polar Water, 312

Pollen assemblages, climate change reconstructions, 545

POLYMODE program, 423

Prague, Czech Republic, 85

Precipitation.

See also Rainfall;

Snowfall

area averaging, 71, 72-75, 76

century-scale changes, 69, 74-75, 76

data processing, 70-71

decade-scale changes, 74

gauges, 68, 71, 77

global, 195

greenhouse warming and, 18

instrument record, 10

interannual variability, 12, 69, 73-74, 75, 76

land, 195

mean annual, 69

measurement, 68-71, 74-76, 77

networks, 69-70, 76

North America, 14, 67-71, 74-76

proxy records, 521, 551

quality of data, 14

regional shifts or jumps, 600

sea surface temperature and, 191, 255, 261

snow cover and, 50

soil moisture and, 414

streamflow and, 74-75

topography and, 68

volcanic eruptions and, 195

Pressure

anomalies, 255, 310-311

and atmospheric circulation, 116, 117, 118

ENSO phenomenon and, 459, 460, 462-466, 479-480

and heat fluxes, 137

North Atlantic, 420, 424

North Pacific, 473, 474-476

and salinity, 310-311, 316

sea level, 112, 116, 124-127, 137, 202, 248, 255, 260, 308, 367, 420, 424, 459, 460, 462-466, 473, 474-476, 479-480, 527-528, 532

sea surface temperature and, 124-128, 191

and storm tracks, 137

surface, 116, 117, 118

and Tasmanian climate, 527-528, 432

teleconnections, 260, 261

and winds, 119, 124-127, 248, 308

zonally asymmetric fields, 117

Projections of climate change, 18, 74

Proxy records.

See also Ice cores;

Paleoclimatic record;

Tree-ring records

atmospheric, 492-493

defined, 7

ENSO phenomenon, 453-454, 459, 460-461, 471

future of, 494

history of, 490-491

integration of information from, 31

interpretation, 420, 490

limitations, 31, 420, 425, 453, 493-494

model validation with, 427, 429, 493

needs, 602

North Atlantic circulation, 537-541

oceanic, 491-492, 537-541

for rainfall, 37, 43

recommendations, 607

span, 18

temperature reconstructions from, 7, 18, 23-27, 31, 117-118

types and applications, 420, 490

Puget Sound, 473

Puerto Chicama, Peru, 500-501

Puerto Rico, 499

Punta Pitt, Isla San Cristobal, 500-501

Q

Quelccaya Ice Cap, 24, 27-28, 29, 31, 454, 461, 547, 549-550, 554

R

Radar altimeters, 238

Radiation balance, modeling, 165

Radiative-convective models, 92, 165, 347, 348

Radiative transfer

heat fluxes and, 136

ice-albedo feedback and, 1, 165

Rainfall.

See also Precipitation

Africa, 32-43, 45, 46, 48

Aleutian Low and, 476

anomalies, 33-36, 38-39, 44, 45

atmospheric circulation and, 41, 42, 117

averaging methods, 33

causes of variability, 41-43

century-scale fluctuations, 37-38

decadal-scale variations, 32, 33-38, 43

ENSO phenomenon and, 39, 41, 48, 442-443, 453, 460, 461, 464, 466, 468-469, 499, 500, 501-502

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

gauges, 71, 76

interannual variability, 34, 38-41, 117

land-surface feedback and, 41-43

latitude and, 33

North Pacific climate changes and, 473, 476

periodicities, 39

proxy data, 37, 43, 499, 500, 501

research needs, 43

sea surface temperature and, 39, 41, 45, 46, 48, 327, 509

seasonal fluctuations, 39-41, 117

teleconnections, 35-37, 41, 42, 43

Recommendations, 2-3, 16, 606-607

Reforestation, 46

Research needs

African rainfall fluctuations, 43

for coupled modeling, 417-418, 429

data collection, 603

ENSO phenomenon, 471

identification of key variables, 606

modeling, 606-607

proxy data, 607

snow cover, 65-66

temperature, 95

Reykjanes Peninsula, 307-308

Rift Valley, 35

Rio Alerce, Argentina, temperatures, 24

River flows, temperature reconstructions from, 118

Rockall Channel, 325, 326

Ronne ice shelf, 262

Ross Sea, 384

Rossby waves, 53, 91, 116, 443

Runoff

and Arctic climate cycle, 129, 254-255, 257, 258-259, 262, 312, 314, 315

coral records, 498

and deep-water production, 315, 367

modeling, 380

from snow melt, 55

and salinity, 257, 406

sea surface temperature and, 255, 261

Russian Academy of Sciences, 61

Rutgers University, 61, 64

S

Sahel

drought, 12, 15, 19, 21, 37, 41, 44-48, 468, 469, 470

land-surface feedback, 15, 41-43, 45-46

limnological records, 509-510

rainfall variability, 32, 33, 35-37, 38-39, 41, 44, 45, 48, 260, 367, 510, 600

topography, 45

Salinity, oceanic.

See also Great Salinity Anomaly

annual mean, 319-320

anomalies, 21, 121, 131, 190, 191, 207, 239, 254, 255-261, 295-304, 309-314, 370, 377-378, 397, 403

atmospheric circulation and, 294

boundary conditions on, 368

deep-ocean, 290-294, 322-324

and deep-water formation, 289

density and, 291, 292, 293

empirical-orthogonal-function analysis, 400, 402, 403

interdecadal variability, 239, 261

Labrador Sea, 239, 295-304

model characterization, 140-141, 149, 358, 363, 368, 416

North Atlantic, 319-324, 322, 434-436, 534-535

and ocean circulation, 534-535

periodicity, 313-314

and plankton abundance, 563, 565, 566

pressure and, 310-311

runoff and, 257, 406

sea ice and, 131, 255-261, 311-312, 441

sea surface, 294, 325, 368, 377-378, 379-380, 434-436

spatial distribution, 404

and temperature, 207, 285, 294, 314, 402

and thermohaline circulation, 207-208, 357-361, 362, 370, 434-436

time series, 299-300

San Francisco, 266, 267, 268, 269

Santa Barbara basin, 561, 562

Sargasso Sea, 351, 352

Satellite observations

altimetry, 270, 508, 509

lake levels and surface area, 508, 509

needs, 603

of sea-level changes, 270

snow cover, 14, 54, 61-65

temperatures, 200, 238, 247-248, 539

usefulness of, 14

Scandinavia, temperatures, 24, 25

Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR), 62, 64

Scatterometers, 238

Scotland-Iceland Ridge, 283

Scripps Institution of Oceanography, 561, 566-567

Sea-air feedbacks, 134, 362

Sea ice

and air temperatures, 189, 251, 551

anomalies, 254, 255, 257, 258

Arctic climate cycle and, 129, 254-255, 424

boundary areas, 244-245

data sources, 243, 247, 251, 252, 254, 258

decadal-scale fluctuations, 13, 189, 254

drift speeds, 258, 314

extent, 121, 130, 231, 254, 255-256, 258-259, 367

formation, 289

GISST data set, 227-228, 242-247

great ice and salinity anomalies (GISAs), 255-261, 311-312

index, 131, 167

interannual variability, 254

models/modeling, 140, 351, 399, 426, 433

and North Atlantic Oscillation, 130

North Pacific climate and, 473

runoff and, 257-259

and salinity, 131, 255-261, 262, 311-312, 441

and sea level, 272

and sea surface temperature, 129, 223, 224, 226, 231, 244-245, 248, 260

snow cover on, 61, 62

and surface albedo, 260

wind and, 258, 262

Sea level

acceleration of change, 267-270

and ENSO signal, 230, 271

low-frequency variations, 267, 270, 272

models, 265

post-glacial rebound. 265

pressure, 112, 116, 124-127, 137, 202, 248, 255, 308, 367, 420, 424, 459, 460, 462-466, 527-528

quasi-biennial oscillation, 229-230, 270-271, 426

records, 237, 265-266

sea ice and, 272

seasonal variation, 272

vertical crust movements and, 265

and wind-stress curl. 272

Sea surface temperature (SST) .

See also Temperature;

Ocean temperature

absolute values, 243

and African rainfall patterns, 39, 41, 45, 46, 48

air-sea heat exchanges, 134-139, 147

anomalies, 21, 45, 124-128, 131, 137-140, 142-147, 202-203, 221-226, 241, 242, 243, 251, 260, 306, 314, 367, 377-378, 424, 439, 444-448, 450, 454, 454, 455, 459, 461-462, 464-467, 501

Arctic, 31

and atmospheric circulation, 124- 128, 261, 327, 414, 424, 478

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

averaging techniques, 30, 227-228, 245-246, 466

biennial-scale, 122-125

cloud cover and, 189

convection and, 262

coral reconstructions, 496, 497, 498, 499, 500, 501, 502

decadal-scale variations, 118, 122-125, 128, 189, 327

dipole patterns, 124-125, 127

empirical orthogonal function analysis, 122-124, 132, 136-139, 142, 148-149, 260, 402, 445-446, 469, 474

ENSO phenomenon and, 202, 444-448, 450, 454, 455, 459, 461-462, 464-467, 479-480, 499, 500

and entrainment, 220

and equatorial upwelling, 209

forcing agents, 14, 142-144

and fresh-water fluxes, 399

GISST data set, 227-228, 242-247

global mean, 241

and Gulf Stream, 125-126

and heat-flux anomalies, 134, 137-139, 141, 145, 147, 148, 219-221

and horizontal advection, 220

Indian Ocean, 509

interannual fluctuations, 121, 210, 261, 322

Labrador Sea, 296

and lake-level and surface-area changes, 509

Levitus data sets, 366, 368, 379-380

mapping, 238

MOHSST data set, 222-226, 242, 247, 251

modeling, 144-146, 251, 478

North Atlantic Ocean, 122-124, 131, 139, 191, 321-322, 326, 420, 422, 424, 433-436, 439, 510, 539, 581

North Pacific Ocean, 14, 141, 142-144, 426, 473-474, 476-477

phase lags, 367

and precipitation, 191, 255, 261, 327, 510

and pressure, 124-128, 191

records, 14, 119, 121, 134, 242, 247, 422, 454, 455, 496

and runoff, 255, 261

satellite-based, 247-248

sea ice and, 129, 223, 224, 226, 244-245, 247, 260

Southern Hemisphere, 118, 510

tropical Pacific, 29, 448, 496

and upper-air temperatures, 209

verification of, 239

wind and, 121, 124-125, 128, 145, 307

winter, 221

Seasons and seasonal cycles.

See also Summer;

Winter

aerosol forcing, 94

atmospheric variability, 112-113

cloud cover, 92

ENSO and, 448

heat-flux anomalies, 136-139

monthly means converted to, 121-122

North Pacific climate variations, 475-476, 477-478

precipitation trends, 79

rainfall fluctuations, 39-41

sea level, 272

snow cover, 54, 59, 62, 63, 64, 66

temperature trends, 79, 82, 84-85, 92, 94, 136-139, 146-147, 221, 436, 516, 520

wind-stress curl, 272

Seasonal Ice Zone Experiment (SIZEX), 231

Seawater

density changes, 300-301

speed-of-sound measurements in, 238, 273

UNESCO equations of state, 399

Sediments/sedimentation

anthropogenic influences on fish populations, 562

bioturbation, 538

deep-sea, 314-315, 381, 425, 491, 536, 538, 574

ice-volume changes, 574

lakes, 491, 510, 534

ocean-circulation reconstructions, 535

rates, 491-492

and thermohaline circulation, 314-315

time scales for, 235

varve chronologies, 43, 492, 493

Severnaya Zemlya Ice Cap, 554

Siberia

runoff, 255, 257, 262

temperatures, 200, 201, 206

Siberian River, 255

Signal detection. See Climate-signal detection

Snow cover

albedo and, 50, 53, 54, 57

annual variability, 61, 64, 65

and atmospheric circulation, 50-58, 414

century time scales, 54-57

and climate change, 54, 60

and cloud cover, 52, 54, 56

and cyclones, 52

decadal variations, 49, 54-57, 60-66

depth, 61, 62, 65

distribution, 50, 52, 62

duration, 61, 64, 65

ENSO link, 53-54

feedback effects, 15, 52

historic in situ data, 61, 65

on ice, 61, 64

interannual variations, 51

marginal snow zone, 55

measurement problems, 14, 54, 61, 78

microwave charting, 62-63, 64

modeling studies, 52-54, 56-57, 58

NASA microwave files, 14, 61-62, 64

and natural climate variability, 49-59

NOAA weekly charts, 14, 58, 61, 63-64, 65, 79

observational studies, 50-52, 54-56, 61-65

and precipitation forecasts, 50

and rainfall, 51-52, 53

and runoff, 55

satellite data. 14, 54, 61-65

and seasonal cycles, 54, 59, 62, 63, 64, 66

short-wave charting, 61, 62

and soil moisture, 53, 54

span of records, 55

and temperature, 52, 53, 54-55, 57, 79, 90-92

and upper-air geopotential, 53

water equivalent, 61, 62, 68

Snow gauges, 54, 69, 71

Snow melt/melting, 50, 55

Snow products, 61, 63-64, 65-66

Snowfall

area averaging, 71-72, 73, 76

data processing, 70-71

decade-scale changes, 73-74, 77-78

and ENSO events, 55

interannual, 72, 76, 78-79

measurement, 68, 69, 71-73, 78

rates, 53

scale corrections, 71-73

temperature and, 73-74, 78-79

water equivalent, 69, 71

Soil moisture

greenhouse gases and, 93

and precipitation, 43, 414

snow cover and, 54, 57

and temperature, 53, 57, 89-90, 93

Solar radiation

and temperature, 90-92

top of the atmosphere, 90-92

Sondankylä, Finland, 86, 87

Soudano-Guinean Zone, rainfall, 34, 38

Sound-fixing and ranging (SOFAR) channel, 273

South Africa

meteorological network, 88

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

pressure, 116

rainfall, 39, 42, 117

temperatures, 82, 84, 85, 88

Weather Bureau, 116

South America

rainfall, 117

temperatures, 27

South Atlantic region, temperature anomalies, 21, 260

South Pacific

anticyclone high, 116-117

models, 145

South Pacific Convergence Zone, 119, 457

South Pole, 55

Southern California Bight, 567

Southern Hemisphere

atmospheric circulation, 13, 111-119

climate records, 423, 523

halocarbons, 277

krypton concentrations, 279

low-frequency variability, 251

meteorological network, 201

rainfall, 35, 42

sea ice, 251, 260

snow, 50, 59, 62

storm tracks, 115-116, 118, 119

temperatures, 81, 82, 201, 202, 204, 206, 207, 208, 513-514, 518-519, 523-532

Southern Ocean, 243, 246, 247, 248, 261, 315, 386

Southern Oscillation.

See also El Niño/Southern Oscillation phenomenon

and atmospheric-circulation anomalies, 117, 118

characteristics, 402-403, 459, 499, 503, 504

decadal variability, 117

Index (SOI), 117, 202, 461, 478, 479, 501-502, 509, 515-516, 574

South Pacific anticyclones, 117

and temperature, 573-574

Walker circulation and, 356

Soviet Union (former)

cloud cover, 92

meteorological network, 88, 89

North Atlantic data, 320, 322

snow-cover data, 61

snowfall, 55, 58

temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88, 89

Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I), 62, 65

St. Petersburg, 517

Stockholm, Sweden, 266, 268, 269, 517

Storm tracks, 115-116, 118, 119, 137, 327, 473, 478

Straits of Indonesia, 537

Stratosphere

temperature, 206-207

ozone depletion, 165

UV radiation absorption, 193

Streamflows, 74-75, 76, 473, 476

Strontium, in corals, 498

Subarctic gyre, 276, 324, 358, 359, 361, 362, 363

Sub-Arctic Intermediate Water, 385

Subpolar gyre, 121, 129, 131, 239, 254, 260, 299-300, 306, 309, 310, 313, 314, 325, 370, 371

Subsurface floats, 238

Subtropical Convergence Zone, 385

Subtropical gyre, 129, 131, 134, 239, 272, 322, 324, 370, 371, 383, 481-542

Subtropical High, 128, 528

Sudan

meteorological network, 88

temperatures, 81, 82, 84, 87, 88

Sulawesi, 504

Sulfate aerosols

fallout rate, 94

and greenhouse warming, 18

and precipitation, 15

residence times, 94

and temperature, 94-95, 208

Sulfur emissions, 94

Summer.

See also Seasons and seasonal cycles

continent-ocean contrasts, 112, 114-115

precipitation, 12, 46

temperatures, 25, 27, 28, 29, 117-118, 167, 492, 517-520

wave trains, 114

Sunspot cycles

and carbon dioxide, 97-99

decadal-scale variations, 98

and ENSO phenomenon, 193, 443, 509

Gleisberg, 192, 529, 532

Hale, 192

Maunder Minimum, 192, 196, 529-530

Medieval Solar Maximum, 529, 530

and natural climate variability, 188, 191-193, 197, 198

and ocean circulation, 503

periodicities, 192

proxy records, 192, 491, 529

response detection, 176, 178-179

Spörer Minimum, 529-530

and temperatures, 15, 97-99, 178-179, 192-193, 529-530, 532, 600

and ultraviolet radiation, 193, 194, 197

Surface albedo.

See also Snow cover

and rainfall, 46, 47

sea ice and, 260

snow and, 50, 53, 54, 57, 62

and temperatures, 51-52, 93

Surface drifters, 238

Surface temperature. See Air temperature;

Land temperature;

Sea surface temperature;

specific regions and countries

Svalbard Ice Cap, 554

Swiss Alps, 55

Switzerland, temperatures, 517, 535

Synthetic aperture radar (SAR), 238

T

Tahiti, mean sea level pressure, 461-462, 464, 465, 466, 479

Tanzania, rainfall, 40

Tarawa coral records, 500, 501, 502, 503, 504

Tasman Sea, 527

Tasmania, Australia

links to climate system of, 527-530

temperature reconstructions, 24, 25, 167, 518-519, 523-532, 600

Temperatures, general or combined.

See also Air temperature;

Land surface temperature;

Surface air temperature;

Sea surface temperature

adjustments to data, 14

global mean, 13, 14, 18, 170-174, 184, 210, 520, 572-582

greenhouse warming and, 18, 572-582

instrument record, 10, 199-200

interannual variability measures, 21

natural variability in, 187

periodicity, 600

phase lags, 202-203

quality of data, 81

reconstructions from proxy data, 7, 18, 23-27, 31, 117-118

sources of data, 81, 199-200

subsurface, 79, 95

volcanic eruptions and, 184

Thermal-ionization mass spectrometry, 498, 505

Thermohaline circulation

advection, 392, 393

Arctic fresh-water forcing and topography, 379-380

Atlantic, 384-397, 399

atmospheric forcing. 239, 294, 399

boundary conditions, 129, 367-368, 385, 391, 392, 393, 427

buoyancy flux and, 366

century-scale variability, 370

and climate change, 190, 315-316, 366

collapse of, 369-370

convection and, 315 -316, 392-393

cryosphere and, 8, 239

currents, 389

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

Deacon Cell, 388

decade-to-century-scale variability, 373-374, 380, 396

decadal-to-interdecadal variability, 130, 131, 167, 190, 262, 316, 370-373, 375-376, 424, 432-441

and deep-water production, 121, 393

density (ocean) and, 361, 366, 436-439

diffusion processes, 368-370

ENSO phenomenon and, 470-471

Great Salinity Anomaly and, 316

and heat exchanges, 19, 366-367, 369-370, 375-376, 384, 391, 394, 427, 528-529

hemispheric variability, 391-395

intensity, 434-436, 438

intermediate-water formation, 393

measurement of, 385

mechanisms in, 263, 371-372, 376-379, 384

models/modeling, 2, 130, 131, 171, 172, 316, 336-338, 356-359, 366, 367-374, 385-397, 416, 417, 420, 427, 432-441, 528-529, 601

North Atlantic, 130, 360, 366, 375-379, 380-381, 432-441, 534

North Atlantic Deep Water and, 314-316

oscillations, 2, 129, 174, 260-261, 357, 391-395

overturning, 261, 366, 367, 369, 370, 393

response time, 417

salinity and, 207-208, 357-361, 362, 366, 370, 391, 394, 434-436, 438

sinking regions, 366, 384, 388, 391, 395, 433-434, 437-438

stable regimes, 262, 315, 367, 386-391, 399, 420

subtropical gyre sensitivity to, 542

symmetric restoring temperatures, 386-388, 389

and temperature, 327, 356-359, 361, 362, 366, 386-388, 390-391, 434-436, 438, 439

trans-equatorial, 121

velocities, 387, 390, 393, 395

Thermometers, 88, 321

Timbuktu, 35, 37

Titicaca, Lake, 461, 508, 509

TOGA Program, 239, 303, 336, 421, 423

TOPEX/POSEIDON data, 270

Toronto, Ontario, Canada, temperatures, 516, 517, 521

Tracer studies.

See also Transient tracers

cod/haddock eggs and larvae, 306-309

coral reefs, 460, 496-595

ENSO phenomenon, 460

geochemical data, 602

mesoscale eddies and, 341-342

model validation, 426

Transpolar Drift Stream, 255, 258, 312

Trans-Polar Index, 117

Transient tracers

Atlantic Deep Western Boundary Current, 283-285

boundary conditions, 276-280

carbon-14, 238, 276, 279-280, 381

data sets, 288

European polar seas, 286-287

evaluation of data, 283

halocarbons, 238, 275-276, 277-279, 281-282, 283, 381

krypton-85, 276, 279, 282-283

meridional overturning and, 340

properties, 238-239, 275-276

ratios, 280-283

time-series examples, 283-287

tritium/3He, 238, 275, 276-277, 280-281, 282-283

Transient Tracers in the Ocean/North Atlantic Study (TTO/NAS), 291, 294, 297

Tree-ring records.

See also specific locations

alerce trees (Fitzroya cupressoides), 494

applications, 43, 492

ENSO cycle, 460-461

Great Salinity Anomaly, 326-327

growth-trend adjustments, 532

history of use, 490-491

Huon pine (Lagarostrobos franklinii C.J. Quinn), 524

interpretation of, 23-25, 491, 519

precipitation reconstructions from, 521

sensitivity of, 521

singular spectrum analysis, 525-527

spectral analyses, 525, 532

sunspot cycles, 192, 491

temperature reconstructions, 25-27, 29, 117-118, 167, 492, 517-520, 523-532

time span, 31, 551-552

Tritium, 275, 276-277, 282-283, 286, 287, 290

Tropical climates.

See also individual oceans and regions

coral records, 495-505

lake levels and surface areas and, 506-511

monitoring, 495-505

Tropical Ocean and Global Atmosphere (TOGA) Program, 239, 303, 336, 421, 423

Tropical Pacific Ocean

climate shifts, 21

coral records of changes in, 496-505

interannual variability, 1, 502

models, 140

and North Pacific climate, 478-480

and sea level variations, 270-271

temperature, 145, 246, 247, 448

Tropical storms/disturbances

African rainfall and, 47

tracks, 115-116, 118, 119, 137, 473, 478

U.S. East Coast, 12

Troposphere

aerosols, 94-95, 194, 196

temperature, 27-28

water vapor, 15, 28

Turkana, Lake, 508

U

Uganda, rainfall, 40

Ultraviolet radiation, 191, 193, 197

United Kingdom Meteorological Office, 90, 248, 250, 356, 314.

See also England

United States (contiguous).

See also North America;

individual states

aerosol forcing, 94

Clean Air Act, 94

climate fluctuations, 12

cloud cover, 92

drought, 19

eastern seaboard, 139, 293

greenhouse warming, 18

Historical Climatology Network, 69-70, 72, 77, 85, 88, 90

precipitation, 12, 13, 55, 67-69, 73-75, 76, 600

rainfall, 76

re-analysis modeling projects, 16

snow cover, 58, 61, 63, 65

snowfall, 73, 76

storm patterns, 12, 52, 311, 317, 367

sulfur emissions, 94

temperatures, 12, 13, 19-20, 22, 24, 29, 67, 82, 84, 85, 86, 87, 88-89, 91, 123, 128, 191, 314

United States/People's Republic of China bilateral agreement, 81

University College London, 508, 511

University of

Colorado, 61

East Anglia, 475, 528

Wisconsin, 322

Urals, temperatures, 24, 518-519, 520, 522

Urban heat islands, 14, 61, 88-89

Urvina Bay, coral records, 503-504

Suggested Citation:"INDEX." National Research Council. 1995. Natural Climate Variability on Decade-to-Century Time Scales. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5142.
×

U.S. Air Force, snow-depth product, 61

U.S. Coast Guard, 319, 322

U.S. Department of Energy

data archeology, 14

temperature data, 201, 202, 204, 205

U.S. Geological Survey Satellite Image Atlas of the World, 16

U.S. Ice Patrol Standard Section, 306

US/USSR Bi-Lateral Environmental Data Exchange Agreement, 61, 81

V

Victoria, British Columbia, 366

Victoria, Lake, levels, 35, 493, 509

Volcanic eruptions

and aerosol forcing, 188, 193-194, 195, 196, 197, 198

atmospheric response to dust, 184-186

and ENSO activity, 443, 471

ice-core data, 198, 549, 551

modeling, 184-185

and precipitation, 195, 524

and temperature, 59, 171, 183, 185-186, 188, 194, 195, 206-207, 208, 209, 524

Vostok ice cores, 167, 493, 575

W

Wajir, Kenya, 35

Walker, Gilbert, 459

Wallywash, Great Pond, Jamaica, 510

Water quality, 567

Water-vapor feedback, 93, 505

Wave trains

regional meridional, 113, 114-115, 118

zonal, 113, 114-115, 118

Weddell Sea, 262, 283, 384, 521

Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin charts, 61, 71

West Greenland Banks, 306, 317

West Greenland Current, 295-296, 306, 309

West Greenland shelf, 300

West Wind Drift, 528

Western Boundary Undercurrent, 288, 291

Winnipeg, Manitoba, 366

Winds.

See also Atmospheric circulation

anomalies, 112-113, 249

balanced frictional flow, 248

calculation, 119

curl, 475

easterlies, 127

ENSO forcing, 452, 500

equatorial zonal, 191

geostrophic, 248

and heat fluxes, 136, 190, 440

marine, 119, 248-250

North Atlantic, 249-250

North Pacific, 474, 475, 476

northerlies, 310, 313, 474, 476

pressure and, 119, 124, 125-126, 248

and sea ice, 258, 262

speeds, 249-250

sunspot cycles and, 191

and temperature, 90-92, 121, 124-125, 127, 128, 140-141, 142, 147-148, 307, 600

trade, 124, 202, 499, 503

upper-level, 41, 112-113

westerlies, 116-117, 124, 127, 508, 571

zonal, 124-125, 386

Winter

atmospheric circulation, 112, 113, 114, 118

cyclones, 311

Little Ice Age, 420

North Atlantic Ocean climate, 120-132, 291, 311

precipitation, 12

pressure, 310-311, 312

rainfall, 117

temperatures, 12, 28, 221, 312

World Climate Research Program (WCRP), 55, 319, 336

World Glacier Monitoring Service, 16, 55-56

World Meteorological Organization, 81, 277

World Ocean Circulation Experiment (WOCE), 239, 296, 297, 336

World Water Balance studies, 68

World Weather Records, 81

Wüst, Georg, 237, 238

Y

Younger Dryas cooling event, 190-191, 367, 538, 540, 552, 553, 575

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This volume reflects the current state of scientific knowledge about natural climate variability on decade-to-century time scales. It covers a wide range of relevant subjects, including the characteristics of the atmosphere and ocean environments as well as the methods used to describe and analyze them, such as proxy data and numerical models. They clearly demonstrate the range, persistence, and magnitude of climate variability as represented by many different indicators. Not only do natural climate variations have important socioeconomic effects, but they must be better understood before possible anthropogenic effects (from greenhouse gas emissions, for instance) can be evaluated. A topical essay introduces each of the disciplines represented, providing the nonscientist with a perspective on the field and linking the papers to the larger issues in climate research. In its conclusions section, the book evaluates progress in the different areas and makes recommendations for the direction and conduct of future climate research. This book, while consisting of technical papers, is also accessible to the interested layperson.

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