A New Era for Irrigation (1996)

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The Irrigation Industry: Patterns of Change and Response The productivity, profitability, and sustainability of irrigation in the United States are functions of numerous interdependent variables physical, economic, political, environmental, and technological. These factors, taken alone and in combination, change over time and make the industry both diverse and dynamic. For this reason, it is impossible to depict a simple or homogeneous characteriza- tion of the irrigation industry in the United States. Although it is possible to describe the nature of irrigation and the issues with which irrigators and the industry must contend in general terms, it is more diffi- cult to generalize about the future of irrigation without looking at irrigation as practiced in different regions. Many of the key forces of change affecting irriga- tion vary in relative importance in different geographic regions. These factors also differ in relative importance between the agricultural and the turfgrass- landscape sectors of the industry. For example, while competition for water supplies and policies to protect environmental resources are issues affecting irri- gation nationwide, the specifics of water supply problems and environmental restrictions are different in the Pacific Northwest than they are in the Texas High Plains. Policy reforms within the Bureau of Reclamation will have more signifi- cance for irrigators in the western states served by that institution than for irriga- tors in the southern and eastern United States. By the same token, the predomi- nant environmental regulations affecting the turfgrass industry may not be of concern to agricultural irrigators. Within the irrigation industry, manufacturers of irrigation technologies do not face the same challenges and constraints as individuals who participate directly in irrigation activities. 125

26 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION Using a simple matrix, the preceding chapter described the relationships between forces of change and responses by the irrigation industry in the United States. This construct can be used to examine and analyze the experience of irrigators and supporting institutions and to formulate an overall picture of the industry, current trends, and the future of irrigation. This chapter presents four case studies to illustrate patterns of change and response as actually observed today. These case studies demonstrate how differences in conditions of water supply, concerns over environmental protection, and economic forces bring about varied responses. These trends can help identify the most significant pressures and provide insight into the magnitude and directions of change in the industry as a whole. The case studies describe irrigation in four regions: the Great Plains, Califor- nia, the Pacific Northwest, and Florida. The cases were chosen to illustrate a variety of irrigation patterns, processes, and problems. To aid in comparing these cases, it is useful to keep in mind several attributes that affect how irrigation is practiced in a given region. These are physical patterns, cultural patterns, func- tional relations, and jurisdictional relations. · Physical Characteristics. The case study regions differ in terms of cli- mate, hydrology, topography, and soils factors that dictate certain irrigation practices, technology choices, public policy, and investments. For example, irrigation in semiarid regions, including much of California and the Pacific North- west, depends on large-scale surface water delivery systems, most of which have been publicly financed and were built and operated by public agencies. Other regions, such as the Great Plains, are almost entirely dependent on privately developed ground water and have evolved pumping technologies and regional institutions to manage ground water. Humid conditions in Florida and the South- east lead to different irrigation patterns. · Cultural Characteristics. Cultural characteristics also differ significantly among regions and affect choices of irrigation technologies and practices, the structure and philosophy of local and regional irrigation institutions, and re- sponses to environmental regulation and changing public policy. For example, American Indian irrigators operate in a markedly different cultural context than non-Indian irrigators, which is reflected in different philosophical, legal, and economic attributes. Individual tribes have strong spiritual values about water and land resources, values that influence their views about the political and economic value of those resources and how they are to be used. In addition, tribal resource management practices are oriented to long-term planning horizons (in contrast to the 50-year horizon commonly used by state and federal agencies). As sovereign nations, tribes have a fundamentally different relationship with federal and state agencies charged with management of water and other natural resources, and different policies and regulations pertaining to irrigation, reclamation, and crop production than non-Indian irrigation institutions organized under state laws.

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 127 Another example of cultural patterns can be seen in how different regions re- spond to technological and scientific innovations. For example, in California, the agricultural sector as a whole is characterized by a high average level of irrigation efficiency, but there are marked distinctions in irrigation efficiencies between farmers in different parts of the state. Different practices can be explained in part by physical and environmental parameters the types of crops grown, soil char- acteristics, and climatic and hydrologic conditions. But some of the differences in irrigation efficiencies also are attributable to historical experience or family tradition and the irrigator's familiarity and comfort with new technologies. Finally, cultural patterns also influence irrigators' perceptions of and re- sponses to problems related to competition over water, environmental regulation, rising prices, and other factors. The types of conflicts that arise between irriga- tors and other interests, and how these conflicts are resolved, are uniquely a product of the cultural patterns that have developed over time. · Functional Relations. Each irrigated area is defined by functional rela- tions as well as physical and cultural characteristics. Although some irrigators grow crops for local and regional markets, others compete in global markets. Dairies tend to locate close to urban markets. The sites of processing plants influence crops grown in some regions. Many international markets are special- ized (e.g., markets for mint from the Pacific Northwest), while other commodity markets are globally integrated (e.g., cotton and grains from the Great Plains). Some regions employ local and permanent labor, while others rely more on seasonal and immigrant workers. Crop subsidy programs target certain crops and will have a greater impact on growers in one region than another. All irrigated regions are interconnected by long distance financial markets and trade in irriga- tion equipment and supplies. These functional relations shape the economic geography of a region, just as climate and soils shape the physical geography. · Jurisdictional Relations. All of the case studies depict relationships among political and administrative entities that define, to a greater or lesser extent, how irrigation develops; constraints on the availability of inputs; the context for solv- ing environmental problems; and access to information, technical assistance, and technology. The California and Florida case studies, for instance, encompass multiple state agencies as well as overlapping jurisdictions of irrigation organiza- tions and regional and local planning agencies. Additional jurisdictional levels are added in multistate cases such as the Pacific Northwest, where interstate, federal, and tribal responsibilities are considerable and policy goals are some- times in conflict. The Great Plains case represents something of an exception to this rule because interstate water management policies, for surface and ground water, are relatively undeveloped. The Pacific Northwest and California cases involve, in different ways, international treaties, policies, and organizations. American Indian water rights, issues, and jurisdictional implications cut across regions, adding the dimensions of treaty rights and U.S. obligations.

128 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION The cases examined are complex. Each is a product of and distinguished by its physical, cultural, functional, and jurisdictional attributes. Each of the cases describes the character of irrigation in the region, the issues affecting irriga- tors, and how they are responding. In looking to these case studies for a picture of the future of irrigation, it is important to keep in mind that each case, while regionally or otherwise distinctive, is but a part of irrigation as a whole as prac- ticed in the United States. IRRIGATION IN THE GREAT PLAINS: TECHNOLOGICAL AND ECONOMIC CHANGES ASSOCIATED WITH DWINDLING GROUND WATER The Great Plains marks the 100th meridian, the transition between the lush green of the East and the great desert of the West. Rainfall, which comes mostly in the summer, averages about 15 to 20 inches per year (Bittinger and Green, 1980~. Precipitation varies greatly from year to year, and the area is classified as subhumid or semiarid. The climate, specifically the deficiency in rainfall, is the most significant characteristic in determining the Great Plain's environment and in making irrigation critical to the region. Irrigation in the Great Plains depends almost entirely on the water in the Ogallala formation, a large aquifer system. In much of the Ogallala, the rate of withdrawal far exceeds recharge, which means that irrigators are in effect mining the ground water aquifer. Over time, ground water overdraft results in lower well yields, lower water tables, and increased pumping costs. Thus many irrigated areas of the Great Plains will face a transition as irrigation decreases and dryland production increases in its place. This prospect has serious implications for the primarily rural communities that depend on irrigated agriculture as their eco- nomic base and for the environment as land converts to dryland production and the threat of wind-driven dust increases. The Great Plains region encompasses part or all of the states of Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Texas, and Wyo- ming. Figure 5.1 shows the incidence of the Ogallala aquifer and its saturated thickness. Irrigation developed first in the southern region, and irrigated acres are now declining there. However, irrigated acreage is increasing in the northern part of the region. Irrigation using ground water from the Ogallala developed after World War II as a result of the introduction of the centrifugal pump. The Ogallala covers 175,000 square miles (Zwingle, 1993~. It sustains 20 percent of the irrigated acreage and provides 30 percent of all irrigation water pumped within the United States (Kromm and White, 1992b). The aquifer ranges in thickness from less than a foot to 1,300 feet, while averaging 200 feet (Zwingle, 1993~. The Ogallala contained an estimated 3 billion acre-feet of water before irri- gation began. However, the Ogallala is a confined aquifer with an average

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY N E BRASKA C OL OR A D O :t .. ~ ~ ~ rip 3 : NEW MEXICO lo,:: - ~ A..;' ~ ~ KANSAS ~ I. A! . - O K L AH OM A Saturate d Thickness In Feet O-~9 IoO-Igo 200~399 129 FIGURE 5.1 Saturated thickness of high plains aquifer, 1980. Source: Kromm and White, 1987.

130 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION recharge rate of about 0.5 inch per year; withdrawals, on the other hand, range from 1 to 5 feet per year. Even though there is a wide range in recharge rates, especially where there are sandhills, the Ogallala is being mined with withdraw- als significantly exceeding recharge. Adjustments are already well underway to reduce water consumption. The critical issue affecting the future of irrigation in this region is the timing and types of adjustments that can be made and the effects these adjustments will have on agricultural crop production, total irrigated acre- age, future rates of ground water withdrawal, and rural development. Characteristics of Irrigation in the Great Plains il The major irrigated crops in the Great Plains are corn, wheat, grain, sor- ghum, soybeans, and cotton, with corn the dominant crop (Mapp, 1988~. There are some high-value crops such as vegetables and sugar beets, but the acreage is very limited. Over 70 percent of the total value of crop production is from irrigated acreage (Beattie, 1981). The extent of irrigated acreage in the different states of the Great Plains region is determined in large part by the incidence and characteristics of the Ogallala aquifer. Nebraska accounts for almost two-thirds (65 percent) of the annual pumping, with Texas using 12 percent, Kansas using 10 percent, Colorado using 4 percent, Oklahoma using 3.5 percent, and New Mexico, South Dakota, and Wyoming using less than 2 percent each. Over 87 percent of the aquifer is concentrated under Nebraska, Texas, and Kansas (Kromm and White, 1992b). Irrigation across the Great Plains primarily relies on surface (flood) or sprin- kler technology. Surface irrigation has moved from the open ditch and use of siphon tubes to closed delivery systems, use of shorter row lengths, and surge flow. Sprinkler systems include side roll, boom type, center pivot, traveling big gun, and linear move. In the last decade a large number of sprinkler systems replaced furrow systems, and LEPA (low-energy precision application) systems took the place of higher-pressure sprinkler systems (Bryant and Lacewell,1988~. Sprinkler-irrigated acres are increasing and by 1992 included 57 percent of all irrigated acres. Surface or flood irrigation was used on most of the remaining irrigated acres. Low-flow systems are insignificant in this region. The pattern of irrigation development in the Great Plains region since 1959 ncludes some significant variations (See Table 5.1~. The total number of irri- gated acres increased to almost 13 million in 1978 but declined by about 20 percent in the following 9 years (Kromm and White, 1992a). Figure 5.2 shows  total irrigated acreage across the Great Plains from 1959 to 1987. Most of the irrigated crops in the Great Plains are enrolled in the federal farm program. The total number of acres cultivated varies among the census years according to economic and weather factors. The expansion in irrigated acreage is particularly significant in comparison to the change in nonirrigated acreage. Between 1959 and 1978 the average

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32 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION 14000000 1 2000000 1 0000000 8000000 6000000 4000000 2000000 o ~ _ Cl l l ~ it ~ .1 ~-1- 1 1 959 1 969 1 978 1 987 FIGURE 5.2 Total irrigated areas from the Ogallala aquifer, 1959-1987. Source: U.S. Census of Agriculture (Kromm and White, 1992a, p. 24~. proportion of cropland under irrigation rose relative to nonirrigated acreage for the Ogallala in part of all six states. In Nebraska the proportion of irrigated acreage rose from about 28 percent in 1959 to almost 50 percent in 1987. From 1978 to 1987 the proportion of cultivated land irrigated in the Ogallala aquifer region declined in Texas and Kansas, increased in Nebraska and Colorado, and was about the same for Oklahoma and New Mexico (Kromm and White, 1992a). The expansion in irrigated acres since the 1950s occurred with increased pumping of ground water. Ground water supplies will be the limiting factor in the development and distribution of irrigation for this region in the future. In 1978, some 12.9 million acres in the Great Plains region were irrigated with ground water. Projections for the year 2020 indicate that 5.4 million irrigated acres will revert to dryland farming or be abandoned (Banks et al., 1984~. The areas where withdrawals can be expected to have the greatest impact by 2020 and beyond are New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. These states account for over 3 million irrigated acres. Projections for Kansas and Texas show substantial de- creases in irrigated acreage and corresponding increases in dryland acreage. Irri- gated acreage in Colorado and New Mexico was projected to decrease without an

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 133 accompanying increase in dryland acreage (Stewart and Harman, 1984~. Ne- braska is expected to continue to use 1.9 billion acre-feet of Ogallala water because of areas of substantial recharge and to be irrigating 11.9 million acres (Reisner, 1993~. If these projections prove true, irrigated acreage in the Great Plains in 2020 and beyond will exceed current levels. However, the geographical distribution of irrigated lands will shift to northern states as southern areas adjust from full irrigation to supplemental irrigation to dryland production. As ground water supplies continue to dwindle, particularly in the southern part of the Ogallala aquifer region, the transition to dryland will increase vulner- ability to soil erosion from wind. The seriousness of wind erosion is shown by the 9 million acres enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) from the Great Plains. Erodible lands have been a priority since the 1930s dustbowl era, and under the CRP of the Department of Agriculture farmers receive payments to idle cropland and establish grass and other cover to reduce erosion. If the CRP is continued and gives priority on wind erosion control, it could be important in controlling wind erosion. Forces of Change and Responses In the Great Plains, as with the West generally, irrigation is most acutely affected by the rising cost of water. Agriculture, which accounts for about 88 percent of western water consumption, is not only the largest but also the mar- ginal user of western water (Frederick and Hanson, 1982~. Thus, as water sup- plies become more scarce, higher water costs threaten the continued expansion of irrigation as well as the continued production and profitability of current irriga- tors. In addition to ground water depletion and higher pumping costs, environ- mental concerns are putting more emphasis on water quality. These factors will play a significant role in determining the future of irrigation in the Great Plains, where some of the impacts and responses by farmers already are apparent. Farmers over the Ogallala aquifer have been pumping water at a rate that exceeds recharge by severalfold (12 to 40 times more is pumped than is re- charged). With recharge essentially negligible in most areas, continued mining of the aquifer will continue to reduce water availability, reduce well yields, and increase pumping lifts. The impacts of increasing ground water depletion can be seen in the Texas High Plains, where annual pumping rates range from 5 to 8 million acre-feet, depending on prices and rainfall patterns (Lacewell and Lee, 1988~. Continued pumping will result in a further decline of the water level in the Ogallala. A study done in the 1980s projected that the declining water table would support only about 55 percent of the 1980 irrigated acreage by the year 2000 and only 35 to 40 percent by 2030 (High Plains Associates, 1982~. This same study for the six-state region forecasts that by 2020, water levels in the Ogallala will decline by 23 percent, with Texas having used two-thirds of its supply. At the same time,

134 il A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION ncreasing lift and relatively expensive energy can be expected to maintain an upward pressure on the cost to pump. From the early 1970s to 1985, costs increased approximately 400 percent (Ellis et al., 1985~. Widespread water quality concerns have emerged with the development of irrigated agriculture in the Great Plains. A recent evaluation of the status of water quality and agriculture for the region (Lacewell et al., 1992) concluded that irrigated agriculture and confined livestock operations are the principal factors related to water quality problems across the Great Plains. Agricultural runoff is identified as the most extensive source of surface water quality degradation, accounting for about 60 to 80 percent of the water quality problems in the Great Plains. Soil erosion contributes to pollution through the combined effects of turbidity, siltation, and loading of nutrients adsorbed to the soil particles. Erosion in the Great Plains is dominated by wind action, which probably has a greater impact on soil fertility than off-site water quality. A major source of ground water contamination is agricultural nutrients and pesticides. Ground water contamination by nutrients or pesticides has been docu- mented in every state of the region except Wyoming, where contamination is suspected (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 1989~. Of these contaminants, nitro- gen fertilizers play a leading role because nitrates not used by plants are leached into the ground. One means for significantly reducing this pollution may be through the controlled application of water through fertilization and irrigation scheduling or "chemigation" (Kromm and White, 1992b). Another nonpoint source of water contamination related to irrigation is run- off of pesticides and fertilizers into rivers, streams, and lakes. Across the Great Plains, farmers typically capture and concentrate runoff from irrigated fields in runoff pits, ponds, or playa lakes. Many farmers recirculate the water back through the irrigation system. Nevertheless, some runoff makes its way to other surface sources, and nutrients and some pesticides held in ponded water may lead to ground water contamination over the long term. A final cause of water impair- ment in the Great Plains is salinity. The relationship of salinity to other waste discharges is basically additive. Current policies regarding agricultural nonpoint-source pollution encourage voluntary adoption of farming practices designed to protect surface water and ground water resources from agricultural chemicals and sediment. A major issue regarding policies directed to water quality in the Great Plains is the effectiveness of voluntary programs. Without significant improvements in water quality, there will be increasing pressure to adopt a regulatory approach to address agricultural nonpoint-pollution problems in the Great Plains and other irrigated regions of the United States (Lacewell et al., 1992~. The Ogallala experience shows that conventional farming with excessive water use cannot succeed over a long period of time and that adjustments toward more self-sufficient systems are needed. Some self-correcting mechanisms al- ready exist that ensure that a given farming operation will require less water from

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 135 the Ogallala each year. Because of higher pumping costs and lower well yields, farmers make adjustments in their farming organization, including the mix of inputs and equipment used. Farmers no longer feel that maximizing yield per acre is the most important goal; instead they have begun to concentrate on achiev- ing an economically effective use of irrigation water. In the past decade, there have been adjustments in technology and agricultural practices, institutions, and rules and regulations. These adjustments have occurred at the farm level as well as at the regional level (Zwingle, 1993~. Conservation Perhaps the most uncontroversial course of action for the Ogallala region is to conserve water primarily by increasing irrigation efficiency. As water costs rise, technologies and management practices that conserve both energy and water become more cost-effective and often essential to the continued profitability of irrigated farming. In general, farmers in the Great Plains have a wide range of choices for responding to high energy and water costs before abandoning irrigation. These opportunities include improving pumping efficiency, installing tailwater reuse systems, reducing a sprinkler's operating pressure, institutions' irrigation sched- uling, improving conveyance efficiency, monitoring soil moisture, shaping and leveling the land, irrigating alternate furrows, growing crops with lower water requirements or higher returns to water, and reducing the quantity of water deliv- ered to a given crop. Other adjustments to increase irrigation efficiency include shortening row lengths for gravity-flow systems, converting to low-pressure sprin- klers, and replacing worn sprinkler nozzles (Ellis et al., 1985~. Improved farming systems also contribute to Ogallala water conservation. Minimum tillage, rotating a row crop such as cotton or sorghum with wheat or other small grains, and careful use of herbicides for weed control to reduce the number of implement trips across the fields can cut costs and maximize the use of pumped and natural water. Another improved management practice is the lim- ited irrigation-dryland system, in which the upper half of a field is fully irrigated, the next one-quarter is a tailwater runoff section using runoff from the fully irrigated section, and the lower quarter is managed as a dryland section solely dependent on rainfall. Throughout the Great Plains, this system offers a higher water use efficiency than full or conventional irrigation (Gilley and Fereres- Castiel, 1983~. Technologies for improving efficiency of water use in irrigation have made dramatic advances in recent years (Council for Agricultural Science and Technol- ogy, 1988~. Improved management options for the effective use of irrigation water have become available through advances in irrigation equipment and have significant implications for the future of irrigation from the Ogallala. For ex- ample, advances in sprinkler systems include reducing the pressure to deliver

136 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION water, including drop tubes to place the water in a furrow, and adding appliances to apply chemicals (multifunction systems). However, there are some remaining disincentives to conservation. Legal institutions can discourage conservation in Kansas, where farmers who do not use their allotted water for 3 years lose the right to it (Zwingle, 1993~. Without the appropriate incentives, technology also may encourage a greater use of lim- ited ground water resources. As advanced techniques make better use of the water pumped, they lower its per unit cost and provide effectively more water during critical periods. Both effects encourage greater use of the limited supply. Transition to Dryland Farming The long-term result of aquifer mining, given the feasibility of other water supply options, will be a continuing shift to dryland farming. The transition to dryland farming will increase wind erosion (Lee, 1987~. A transition from full irrigation will alter the structure of the agricultural industry. The returns to land (profit per acre) can be expected to decline which will result in falling land prices. Furthermore, those who can continue farming in the face of lower returns per acre will require larger farms, causing some displacement of current farmers. The Six-State High Plains Ogallala Aquifer Regional Resource Study concluded that, under conditions of crop prices and yield relationships of 1975 to 1980 and with currently projected rates of ground water depletion, a transition to dryland farm- ing over the next 40 years would reduce gross farm income in the region by 25 to 50 percent (High Plains Associates, 1982~. The transition to dryland farming will have impacts for local and regional economies. The Great Plains has the largest concentration of farming-dependent counties in the nation. With lower levels of irrigation and dryland farming, there will be lower yields and less total crop output. This change will be reflected in a reduction in the demand for goods and services by production agriculture, which in turn will affect these local and regional economies. For the small communi- ties, economic impacts may be particularly significant as decreased demands result in a higher per capita cost for services such as water supply, streets, hospi- tals, fire protection, and schools. Similarly, there will be decreased demands for supplies and other agriculture-related services including mechanics, input suppli- ers, fertilizer, seed, and fuel (Williford et al., 1976~. The effects of a declining tax base already can be seen in small agricultural communities across the United States. The depletion of the Ogallala is likely to have serious socioeconomic implications for small towns in this region. Irrigated acreage from the Ogallala is projected to decline in all states except Nebraska after 2020. The most serious decline in irrigated acres between now and 2020 has already begun and will continue in the southernmost part of the region (New Mexico and the southern Texas High Plains). A significant irrigated agriculture economy will remain across all of the Great Plains by 2020.

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY Adjustments in Technology 137 Future technological innovations will help farmers offset the impacts of higher water and energy prices. These include innovations in equipment, bio- technology, computer-based management systems, and other technologies. A water-efficient irrigation system of the future may automatically schedule the quantity and timing of irrigation based on a computerized system that gathers and analyzes detailed information on soil water measured with a soil water sen- sor, climatic data for estimating evapotranspiration, and sensed crop response to the current environment. The irrigation system will also be used to apply fertil- izers and pesticides. Global positioning systems (GPS) will be used in conjunc- tion with sensors of water, salinity, crop fertility levels, and occurrence of weeds and pests to generate maps that will be processed with geographical information systems (GIS) to develop site-specific management recommendations. These site-specific management recommendations will be automatically transferred into computer instructions for controlling the irrigation systems for the timely appli- cation of water and chemicals. The GPS will be used on harvesting equipment to provide yield variability maps, which can be used with other real-time information to determine the spatial variability and provide additional input to management information systems for subsequent crop management. Sprinkler and microirrigation systems that pre- cisely control the application of water and chemicals will provide optimal pro- duction with minimal environmental hazards. Irrigation technology will truly become part of the information age. Technological developments for increasing water supplies are far less prom- ising. Experiments with artificial recharge to rebuild the aquifer have not resulted in any significant large-scale replenishment of the aquifer. The High Plains Underground Water Conservation District No. 1 in the southern High Plains of Texas has experimented with air injection, which sought to release water bound to sand particles in the desaturated zone. Although technically successful, the procedure is prohibitively expensive for the amount of water recovered (Opie, 1993~. Cloud seeding is more scientific but equally unpromising in terms of cost (Opie, 1993~. Even if a cost-effective weather modification technology existed, there would be major institutional obstacles to its adoption. Regulations, Incentives, and Institutions Voluntary conservation efforts may not be sufficient to protect the aquifer, and some regulations and economic incentives may be justified to manage the Ogallala water more efficiently. Various regulations have been introduced in the Ogallala region with the creation of local water districts. The Texas High Plains Underground Water Conservation District No. 1, the Oklahoma Water Resources Board, and the Southwest Kansas Groundwater Management District No. 3 were

138 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION established with a common mission although not always well served to play an active role in managing and regulating the regional allocation of ground water. Management practices and regulations include issuing drilling permits, control- ling well spacing, developing workable recharge, installing water meters, and preventing water waste. Today there are limitations in essentially all the states, which range from pumping limits to well spacing regulation. Parts of Kansas, Texas, and Nebraska now put various limits on the spacing between new wells (Zwingle, 1993~. Nebraska is requiring meters on wells. Some towns in Kansas and Nebraska have made arrangements whereby the town uses fresh water and delivers wastewater to agriculture for use in irrigation. il State and local governments can make low-interest loans to farmers for nvestments in soil or water conservation. Texas has implemented a state-sup- ported program to provide low-interest loans to farmers to purchase "water conserv- ing irrigation equipment" or make other water-conserving investments (Lacewell and Segarra, 1993~. The low-interest loans can be used to purchase distribution systems that improve distribution efficiency or use lower water pressure. How- ever, with improved efficiency of water use and lower energy use, there is the potential that farmers will expand production to new acreage, thus eliminating any net benefit in water conservation. Research results do not support the conten- tion that state-supported low interest loans for farmers to purchase more efficient irrigation equipment will necessarily extend the life of the Ogallala (Lacewell et al., 1985~. Numerous institutions are constraining opportunities to manage Great Plains water resources effectively and to plan intelligently for the future. The states of the Ogallala region (except Texas) rely exclusively on the prior appropriation doctrine of water law, which protects senior users from supply interruptions and ensures that water entitlements will be used but which does sacrifice efficiency. In particular, the prior appropriation doctrine and water use customs inhibit the potential for more efficient allocation of water through water marketing and water rights transfers. Texas follows the English doctrine that the owner of the surface owns the water beneath and may sell or lease their water. Furthermore, there are no constraints beyond ground water districts' rules to the drilling of new wells. This means senior water users are vulnerable to junior water users. The government farm program has traditionally been an important compo- nent of a farmer's decision making. Changes in the 1995 or later Farm Bills could clearly have a large effect on irrigation decisions as well as cropping decisions. The trends in the globalization of world markets and other factors may bring unexpected changes or gradual adjustments in the Ogallala region. Conclusion Because of its vast Ogallala aquifer, the Great Plains has a distinct advantage over water-short parts of the country. Agriculture is by far the highest consumer,

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 139 using 90 percent of Ogallala water, but there are relatively few metropolitan cities to compete for the water. Lubbock and Amarillo, Texas; Guymon, Oklahoma; and Liberal and Garden City, Kansas, are unlikely to become new Denvers, Phoenixes, or Tucsons. However, the continued heavy consumption of the non- renewable Ogallala water, no matter how judiciously regulated by state agencies, will eventually lead to shortages. Most projections about the future of irrigation in the Great Plains, however, seem overly conservative. They assume that inputs such as irrigation water and fertilizer, as well as irrigation efficiencies, will remain fixed. They underestimate the ability of producers to adapt through changes in inputs and improvements in irrigation equipment, management practices, and the like. In actuality, as water costs rise, farmers and supporting institutions are re- sponding with more efficient irrigation and farming systems, alternative crop varieties requiring less water, improved knowledge of the relation between plant growth and water stress, and changes in laws and policies. Continuing changes in crop prices and technology (both equipment and management) also tend to offset or mediate effects of water shortages and rising costs. Most importantly, a smooth transition from water development to water conservation and reallocation will require fundamental changes in the long-held attitudes toward water use. IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN CALIFORNIA: UNCERTAINTY AND CONFLICT IN THE FACE OF CHANGING DEMANDS Irrigated agriculture in California is extensive and far from homogeneous, with distinctly different climatological, soil, and market opportunities among regions. These distinctions are reflected in the differences between growing regions and the diversity of commodities produced in the state. There are ap- proximately 9 million acres of irrigated land in California. The state is a leading producer of 58 commodities, including fruits, nuts, and year-round vegetables. In 1992, farm receipts were valued at $18 billion; including multipliers, irrigated agriculture contributed $70 billion or approximately 10 percent to the state's economy (California Department of Water Resources, 1994~. Agriculture provides 365,000 farm employment jobs. There are roughly five jobs in agricultural input, processing, distribution, and so on, for every on-farm job. Overall, agricultural employment accounts for approximately 10 percent of the total jobs in the state (California Department of Water Resources, 1994; Rosenberg et al., 1993~. California's farm receipts represent 10 percent of the total U.S. farm production. Until the early 1980s the amount of irrigated crop- land in California was expanding. However, it appears that a number of factors will tend to reduce that acreage in the near future. California is an arid state, and there would be no significant farming in the state without irrigation. Precipitation varies dramatically from north to south.

140 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION Seventy percent of the water supply exits in the northern one-third of the state, while 70 percent of the demand for water occurs in the southern portion of the state, south of the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta. Major water development projects were built beginning in the 1920s and 1930s and were spurred on during those years by extended droughts. Project construction continued through the 1950s and 1960s on the federal Central Valley Project and the State Water Project. By 1960 the total irrigated acreage in the state had increased from approximately 1 million acres in 1890 to 6.5 million acres. In 1950, California officially declared there were ample water supplies, in- cluding its share to the Colorado River, to serve all future agricultural and urban uses. In time, this prediction proved overly optimistic. Proposals for the further expansion of water projects drew strong opposition beginning in about 1970 from environmentalists concerned about declining fish populations and degraded aquatic habitats. Construction of major features of the Central Valley Project and the State Water Project Auburn Dam and the Peripheral Canal has stopped. Ma- jor north coast rivers, including the Eel, Trinity, and Klamath, which constitute 40 percent of the state's water supply, were placed under both state and federal Wild and Scenic Rivers Acts and, thus, are protected from development. By the l990s the situation in California had changed, with the state recognizing that the total of all future demands for water, including urban, agricultural, and environ- mental, will be greater than the developed supply and that it is unlikely that any new water supply projects will be constructed. This has created a new era of competition for water, which will tend to make water less available to agriculture than it has been in the past. Environmental concerns over the preservation of fish and wildlife species and water quality have played a major role in transforming public water policy and management of water supply projects in California. Today, the key environ- mental issue is providing adequate flows for water quality and to protect fish and wildlife, including several endangered species, in the San Francisco Bay/Sacra- mento-San Joaquin delta estuary. Although environmental concerns are an im- portant factor in determining the availability of water for irrigation in California, they are not the only factor affecting the future of irrigation. In the 1980s, rising costs of farm production inputs, including water and energy costs, soaring land prices, and high interest costs to finance both land purchases and annual produc- tion costs, slowed the rate of agricultural growth. Ground water overdraft is a persistent, and in some cases severe, problem facing irrigation, as are drainage and salinization problems. California agriculture serves its state market, the national market, and the international market. It is not expected that California's position in these markets will change significantly in the future. However, following a decade of droughts, environmental confrontations, natural disasters, and economic downturns, it is clear that California needs to clarify its water management policies to resolve conflicts between competing agricultural, urban, and environmental demands for

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 141 water. It needs to balance water project operations and allocations to support economic uses of water and restore environmental values held dear by the public. Without some resolution of these issues, the future of irrigated agriculture in California will be characterized by political and legal conflicts over the manage- ment and availability of both water and land resources. Characteristics of Irrigation in California Irrigation and water development in California are mutually dependent. Agricultural interests, allied with urban interests, traditionally have been a major influence in promoting federal and state water development projects in California and have been a large beneficiary of water development. California has more than 1,200 nonfederal and 181 federal dams and reservoirs, with a total storage capacity of approximately 42 million acre-feet. In addition, ground water makes up 22 percent of the total amount of water used in irrigation (33 percent in drought years). Agriculture uses 80 percent of the developed surface water supplies in California and 75 percent of the ground water used in the state (Cali- fornia Department of Water Resources, 1994~. California's farmers produce approximately 250 different crop and livestock commodities. Although specialty crops make up the backbone of the state's agricultural economy, dairy and cattle production and major field crops such as cotton and rice are important components of the state's market strength. Farming and irrigation practices vary among the distinct climatic and topographic regions of the state from the rainy northern coast to the rice fields of the Sacramento Valley; to the corn crops in the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta islands; to the dry, highly productive San Joaquin Valley; to the coastal regions of Salinas Valley, Ventura, and San Diego; and to the hot, dry California desert. In addition to approximately 35 million acres of grazing land in California, there are five basic types of cropping systems used in the state. Irrigated field crops represent 60 percent of California's cropland; tree fruit, grapes, and nuts, about 18 percent; irrigated pasture, 11 percent; vegetable crops, 7 percent; and dryland crops, 4 percent. Many farms mix two or more of these systems and/or produce livestock or poultry (Demment et al., 1993~. The irrigation technologies used with these systems are diverse, from gravity flood and furrow layouts to all piped, low- pressure, low-volume methods. During the 1987-1992 drought, farmers in the San Joaquin Valley and other regions became aware of the need to adopt more efficient technologies, many of them shortening furrows and adding return sys- tems and others adopting drip irrigation systems. The allocation and administration of surface water supplies are governed by a complex system of water rights and doctrines including the reasonable and beneficial use doctrine of California's Constitution, appropriative water rights and riparian water rights administered by the state, water rights (project) permits, the public trust doctrine, and an unregulated system of ground water rights. State

42 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION and federal agencies play a major role in supplying and managing water for irrigation. The State Water Project delivers approximately 1.5 million acre-feet per year to farmers in the northern and southern parts of the Central Valley and on the central coast, and about 1 million acre-feet to urban users served by the Metropolitan Water District and other districts in Southern California. The fed- eral Bureau of Reclamation delivers over 5 million acre-feet of water in an average year, about 20 percent of the total supply of irrigation water used in the state through the Central Valley Project. At the local level, irrigation districts, water districts, and other local agencies play a significant role in supplying water and drainage services to irrigators. In the 1950s and 1960s, irrigation and water districts built and enlarged dams to extend their service areas. Today, the role of districts extends well beyond supplying water to include drainage management, conservation and efficiency improvements, and ground water management. Total applied water from all sources for agriculture in 1990 was 31 million acre-feet, of which total depletion was 24 million acre-feet. Twenty percent of the applied water was provided by ground water extraction (California Depart- ment of Water Resources, 1994~. Forces of Change and Responses A three-way contest has been growing in California for the past two decades over the amounts of water used for urban and agricultural purposes and the amounts necessary to maintain environmental and ecological values in the state's rivers, delta, and wetlands. In a planning document, Bulletin 160-93 (California Department of Water Resources, 1994), the state estimates that urban water needs could grow from 8 million acre-feet in 1990 to 13 million acre-feet by the year 2020, and environmental water requirements could increase by 3 million acre- feet in order to protect endangered species and aquatic resources. The state also estimates that despite the outlook for greater transfers of water from agriculture to urban uses and loss of lands to urbanization and salinization, the total land and water dedicated to irrigation will decrease only about 5 percent. Other stakehold- ers, including environmental interests, contend that endangered species require- ments, coupled with drainage problems, ground water overdraft, the possible loss of some water from the California Basin, and pressures of urban growth, will have a far more dramatic impact on irrigation. Farmers seem to be increasingly willing to transfer water and to make significant changes in farming technology in response to higher prices of water and other inputs. Irrigators and water districts, as well as urban users, have taken various steps over the past two decades to adjust to changing conditions of water supply and reliability in light of these factors, while negotiations, legislation, and litigation continue at the state, federal, and local levels to address the growing competition over developed water supplies. For instance, in 1994 agriculture, urban, and environmental interests,

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 143 together with federal and state governments, agreed on a plan to meet water quality standards in the Bay-Delta region after a 20-year impasse. The future of irrigation in California ultimately depends on how successfully irrigators and other water users can work together with state and federal regula- tors to resolve conflicts over water supplies and the degree to which irrigation's water and land use practices can be adapted to be more compatible with the needs and interests of other sectors of California's economy. Changes in water man- agement policies by the Bureau of Reclamation and the recent state-federal agree- ments on operations to coordinate water quality management and flows for fish survival show that most parties are more willing to reach negotiated settlements than to live with the status quo. Environmental Issues The amount of additional water necessary to support environmental resources and water quality in California may be 3 million acre-feet or more. Whether or not these demands will mean a significant reduction in the supply of water avail- able for irrigation depends on many factors. These include the uncertainty over the water that might be reallocated under the provisions of the Endangered Spe- cies Act, water quality laws, or the Public Trust doctrine. (The Public Trust doctrine embodies the principle that the state holds in trust title to tidelands and the beds of navigable waters for the beneficial use of the public and that public rights of access to and use of such areas are inalienable). Traditional public trust rights include navigation, commerce, and fishing. California law has expanded the traditional public trust uses to include protection of fish and wildlife, preser- vation of trust lands in their natural condition for scientific study, and scenic enjoyment and related open-space uses (California Department of Water Re- sources, 1994~. The assignment and administration of water rights and permits historically have been contentious, resulting in numerous legal and political battles over project operations and the construction of water facilities. The need to consider environmental water requirements has heightened the level of controversy among competing water users. In the 1984 decision regarding the way the State Water Resources Control Board set water quality standards in the delta, Appellate Court Judge Racanelli wrote that the state has broad authorities and obligations to enforce water quality objectives and water rights permits and conditions to pro- tect the beneficial uses of the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta and San Francisco Bay (California Department of Water Resources, 1994~. The State Water Re- sources Control Board is still in the process of determining how the water rights of all delta and upstream water users will be affected by the need to maintain downstream water quality standards. The significance of endangered species protection in determining the avail- ability of water for agriculture and urban uses became clear with the designation

44 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION of winter run salmon and delta smelt as endangered species. Federal require- ments for increased outflows out of the Sacramento River into San Francisco Bay and restrictions placed on water pumped from the delta have reduced the capabil- ity of the state and federal water projects to meet full delivery commitments to agricultural lands and urban water users. In a potentially important precedent, the state and federal agencies with jurisdiction over water resource management affecting the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta and San Francisco Bay (i.e., Califor- nia Departments of Water Resources and Fish and Game, and the federal Bureau of Reclamation, Fish and Wildlife Service, Environmental Protection Agency, and National Marine Fisheries Service) joined together in December 1994 to develop a coordinated package of protections for the estuary. These include new EPA water quality standards, measures proposed by the National Marine Fisher- ies Service and the Fish and Wildlife Service to protect endangered species, and a plan for management of bureau (Central Valley Project) water dedicated to the environment. Together with urban, agricultural, and environmental interests, these agencies negotiated and agreed to provisions for operating the major projects and meeting fish protection and water quality standards for a period of the years during which a plan for the permanent operation and construction of any needed facilities will be identified (reference Principles for Agreement on Bay-Delta Standards Between the State of California and the Federal Government, Decem- ber 15, 1994~. While these legal and political processes continue, agricultural and urban water users may face water shortages and continued uncertainty over the availability and reliability of water supplies. Another precedent for reallocating water supplies from consumptive uses to environmental uses was established with the Central Valley Project Improvement Act (P.L.102-575), which dedicates 800,000 acre-feet annually to environmental protection and sets the goal of doubling anadromous fish populations by the year 2002. The act also imposes many operating criteria and allows transfers of water from agriculture to urban uses. The impacts of these situations are already being felt in the San Joaquin Valley, but the actions are so recent that there is little documentation of reduc- tions in irrigated area or indications of reductions that may take place in the near future. Further, California experienced a 6-year drought from 1986 to 1992, followed by one wet year in 1993, another dry year in 1994, and an extremely wet year in 1995. These variations make it difficult to separate the effects of the droughts from the actions to reallocate water from urban and agriculture to envi- ronmental purposes. Other environmental constraints to irrigation include drainage-related water quality problems and the need for measures to manage and dispose of subsurface agricultural drainage. Approximately 2.5 million acres in the San Joaquin Valley face drainage and salinization problems. Without measures to manage and dis- pose of subsurface agricultural drainage, it may be necessary to cease irrigation on approximately 45,000 acres of land on the west side of the San Joaquin Valley

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 145 by the year 2020. Farmers and water districts in the region have long pursued plans for completion of a concrete-lined aqueduct to collect and convey drainage waters to the Sacramento-San Joaquin delta for disposal. Environmental con- cerns over the water quality impacts of this project, as well as high costs, have stopped the project. Plans for expanding the use of drainage evaporation ponds also have met with strong opposition because the concentrations of trace ele- ments such as selenium in the drain water are known to be harmful to waterfowl and other species. While many farmers are managing to control soil salinity and to continue production on these lands, the long-term outlook for continued irriga- tion of these lands is limited by the amount of salt that may be stored in the soil profile (National Research Council, 1989~. Farmers in the drainage-affected areas eventually may pursue water transfers and/or voluntary land retirement under a recently initiated federal-state land re- tirement program. Also, the state Department of Water Resources and the Bu- reau of Reclamation have experimented with drain water reclamation technolo- gies. However, costs of recycling agricultural drain water are not competitive with other options for additional supplies at this time. Water Supplies The optimistic projections of the 1950s that irrigated acreage in California would continue to expand faded with the knowledge that water supplies are limited and the paucity of public support or capital to develop new projects. More and more, farmers and other water users in California recognize that any increase in water supplies is more likely to come through improved management of existing supplies than through the construction of new water supply projects. Demands for water in urban and environmental uses, coupled with demands for irrigation, exceed available supplies. In the face of these limited supplies, the total irrigated acreage in California is expected to remain at or below the current level of 9.2 million acres, decreasing to approximately 8.8 million acres by the year 2020 (California Department of Water Resources, 1994~. The qualitative impacts of limited water supplies are likely to be more significant than the net reductions in irrigated acreage as farmers contend with continuing ground water overdraft and rising costs. In the past, ground water overdraft has been managed, but not always elimi- nated, with the importation of surface water. Many urban areas have successfully controlled ground water overdraft only to face more difficult problems of chemi- cal contamination of their ground water basins. In the agricultural Central Valley and in northern California, where ground water basins are not adjudicated or managed with imported water supplies, water storage will be depleted and pump- ing depths will increase, making ground water pumping uneconomical compared with other sources of water. Ground water pumping increased dramatically during the 1987-1992 drought in the San Joaquin Valley and other regions where

146 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION irrigators faced water supplies 15 to 50 percent lower than historic project deliv- eries. The quality of ground water in some basins, particularly those in the central coast region, may deteriorate as a result of salt water intrusion. These localized ground water problems may lead to some decrease in the amount of land that can be irrigated in a particular region. Largely in response to recent droughts, urban and agricultural water districts are working on plans to formalize and institutionalize water conservation as a standard element of water management. In regions where the cost of water is high and/or the reliability of water supplies is uncertain, farmers have improved their irrigation methods and equipment in recent years and are able to achieve high irrigation efficiencies. Water districts in the central and southern San Joaquin Valley have water application efficiencies generally higher than 70 percent. With the support of the state, agricultural districts have worked to develop a program for voluntary "efficient water management practices." However, few agricultural representatives believe that conservation measures will yield large water savings, especially in cases where surface water is used in conjunction with ground water from an overdrafted basin. In urban areas, landscape and turf irrigation is a significant factor in water consumption, using some 6 million acre-feet each year in California. Conserva- tion practices and reclamation account for a growing portion of the water used in urban irrigation, especially on golf courses. San Francisco Bay area water suppli- ers, led by the city of Santa Clara, have proposed a project to transport treated wastewater to the San Joaquin Valley for agricultural use in lieu of meeting more costly treatment and disposal EPA requirements for ocean disposal of treated wastewater. Water transfers have long been used by water districts as a way to address short-term surpluses and shortages from one farmer to another. In the past 20 years the interconnection of water delivery systems, particularly those of the large state and federal water projects, has provided even greater opportunities for exchanging water among users. Increasingly, urban water suppliers are looking to transfers from agricultural areas as an important source of water. Although only relatively small amounts of water have been transferred to date from agricultural to urban users, the number of transactions is growing, and various types of water transfer arrangements are emerging. These include the purchase of agricultural land and agricultural water contracts, installation of wa- ter conservation works in exchange for rights to the salvaged water, and leases or options for a limited number of years (e.g., 7 out of 15 years) that still allow the agricultural seller to continue to operate part of the time. Exchanges can also be made by the delivery of water into ground water basins. In 1995, in an agreement between agricultural and urban users in the State Water Project, about 10 percent (130,000 acre-feet) of the agricultural water was earmarked for transfer to urban users from agricultural districts where the cost of water had become too high for

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 147 profitable farming. In exchange, modifications are being made to the rules gov- erning allocations of shortages during water-deficient years. One long-standing impediment to the exchange or transfer of federally man- aged water was the restriction that precluded transfers of Central Valley Project water to users outside the project boundary. This constraint effectively has been eliminated by the Central Valley Project Improvement Act (P.L. 102-575~. For most of the past decade, the California legislature has been debating legislative solutions for water transfers to remove some of the uncertainties from both buy- ers and sellers in regard to preservation of water rights and to relieve or limit third-party effects. Examples of transfer arrangements in California include the 1992 purchase of water from the Devils Den Water District located in Kern County by Castaic Lake Water District (an urban district located northwest of Los Angeles). Castaic Lake Water District will continue to lease out some of the farmland for operation as economic conditions and water needs allow, but will move water into its area as urban demands increase. A transfer of 3,500 acre-feet of State Water Project water is being made from Berrenda Mesa Water District in Kern County to the city of San Ramon, near Oakland, under the 1995 agreement referred to above. In 1994 a farmer in the Central Valley Project service area proposed to transfer 32,000 acre-feet of water over 15 years to the Metropolitan Water District of Southern California (MOOD) for approximately $5.6 million. The Metropolitan Water District would be able to purchase about 4,600 acre-feet in each of any 7 years of its choice. At present, no estimates have been made of the total amount of water that may eventually be transferred from agricultural to urban use. However, California' s population is projected to increase from 30 million in 1990 to 49 million in 2020, or 63 percent. Even assuming extensive water conservation and the implementa- tion of a number of water supply improvements, including wastewater reclama- tion, the state anticipates that demands for water will exceed developed supplies by 2 to 4 million acre-feet per year (California Department of Water Resources, 1994~. This situation will tend to drive up the value of water, increase the prices that urban areas are willing to pay and increase the pressure on agriculture to transfer water. Increased demands for water transfers also would provide politi- cal momentum for addressing remaining obstacles to water transfers, including concerns over third-party effects and environmental restrictions on long-distance transfers across the delta. Approximately 380,000 acre-feet of municipal wastewater is reclaimed and recycled in California to augment urban supplies. This is up from 270,000 acre- feet in 1987. Most of this water is used for ground water recharge, agricultural irrigation, and landscape irrigation (California Department of Water Resources, 1994~. Wastewater (recycled water) is a valuable commodity, and its use to irrigate golf courses has risen dramatically in the past several years. It also may be used to restore and maintain wetlands located on large turfgrass sites. There

148 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION are approximately 1,000 golf courses in California, each with approximately 125 acres of green turfgrass (Steinbergs,1994~. Recycled water, especially in time of drought, can be used to keep part or all of a golf course green and playable. Urban Expansion Irrigated agriculture also is feeling the effects of urban expansion as agricul- tural land is converted to urban and suburban uses. The California Department of Conservation estimates that 32,000 acres were converted from prime irrigated farmland to urban uses from 1984 to 1990. The Department of Water Resources, in looking ahead to future water needs, estimates that 300,000 acres of irrigated farmland may be converted to urban uses between 1990 and 2020 (California Department of Water Resources, 1994~. The impact would be felt throughout the Central Valley and Southern California. This trend principally affects the acre- age that grows high-value crops such as stonefruits, citrus, nuts, vegetables, and dairy products, which in turn are being moved to new locations. There are efforts in some areas to establish policies to preserve agricultural land in and near urban locations, and so far the loss of good irrigable lands is not a serious problem because there has always been an ample supply of other irrigable land that can take over any available production niche. While many citizens support preserva- tion of agricultural lands for its economic and aesthetic value, few local govern- ments are willing to place strong limitations on the conversion of farmland to urban developments. Rising Costs Some of the most serious challenges to the availability of water for agricul- ture, and to the future of irrigation, come from increases in the cost of water supplied by both the state and the federal water projects. The cost of water from the State Water Project has increased to three times the cost projected when the project water was first delivered in 1970, that is, from $25 to $75. In areas where project water also must be pumped up in order to reach individual farms, the cost of water, influenced by today's high cost of electric energy, may make it unprof- itable to grow lower-value crops such as cotton. Increases in water pricing through legislative and policy reforms, such as the Central Valley Project Im- provement Act, also may result in changes in cropping patterns and irrigation practices at the local level. Conclusion With increasing competition over water supplies, a likely increase in water transfer activity, rising water prices, and rising land prices and input costs, it appears that California's irrigators will have to continue to adjust and adapt

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 149 practices to remain competitive. Over the next 25 years, it is unlikely that restrictions on the availability of good-quality irrigable lands in satisfactory cli- matic zones or on the availability of water will jeopardize California's competitive- ness in markets for specialty crops. Major field crops, such as cotton and rice, and the dairy and cattle industries also are likely to remain competitive because of their consistently high quality. However, rising costs of farm production inputs, including increased costs associated with changes in water management, are a potential impediment to California's ability to compete in foreign markets. Few agricultural experts predict that California agriculture will lose significant shares of the markets it now serves. However, California farmers face a period of great readjustment in the years ahead as the conditions for water availability, water price, and the costs of farm inputs change. The primary constraints to irrigation's water supply come from increasing environmental and urban water demands. By 2020, urban demands are projected to increase 62 percent over current levels. Much of this increase is associated with demands for water for landscaping and outside uses, which range from 30 percent in coastal climates to 60 percent in hot inland areas. Urban water suppli- ers are spending large amounts on conservation, reclamation, water transfers, and conjunctive use to offset the need for additional new water supplies to meet urban demands. Responses to the challenges of limited water supplies are evident within the agricultural community as well as in water management institutions and agen- cies. With uncertainties over environmental requirements and water supplies likely to continue, local institutions in California, particularly water districts, can be expected to assume greater responsibilities for water management and project operations. At the farm and district levels, the agricultural community has re- sponded to growing uncertainty over water supplies and other pressures by un- dertaking improved irrigation practices, increased water transfers, conjunctive use, technological improvements, and management of water in drainage-affected areas. Districts are adding water conservation specialists to their staffs, making water conservation plans, and using price structure to influence water use. Water supply constraints on irrigators will change how farmers do things such as decide on cropping patterns or relocation of some specialty crop production or improve irrigation efficiency. With the total irrigated area shrinking, and with water becoming more costly and more subject to reallocation, California farmers face many difficulties to maintain their relative competitiveness in local, domestic, and international markets. Questions about the quantity and reliability of the irrigation water supply are manifest in numerous negotiations, legislative proposals, and legal battles in federal, state, and local venues. Environmental demands will continue to be the major factor behind continuing negotiations and proceedings to reallocate devel- oped water supplies.

150 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION Concern about drainage-related pollution problems may result in selective land retirement and increased water marketing from drainage-impacted areas. The Bureau of Reclamation and the state have developed a program for voluntary retirement of drainage-impacted lands to yield water quality, habitat, and water supply benefits. Farmers and districts also may negotiate short-term or multiple- year transfers to manage shallow ground water in poorly drained areas. Water managers and resource agencies also will look to technological innovations, in- cluding reverse osmosis and reclamation, to address the drainage problem. The most serious threat to the overall competitiveness of irrigation in Cali- fornia compared to the rest of the nation has been the uncertainty and prolonged controversy over the allocation of developed water supplies among agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. Conflicts over water management were seen as a threat to the overall investment climate during the recent economic downturn in California. The December 1994 agreement among state and federal water re- sources and environment management agencies that provides a 3-year period of stability in bay-delta water operations while a longer-term plan is developed marks a new era of willingness of all parties to reach a satisfactory solution. The solution will include both water operation provisions and physical works for better water management. Although it may be difficult for all interest groups to work within this framework for agreement, most agree that an extraordinary effort for cooperation and conflict resolution is critical to ensure a resulting operation plan that will provide for water management in California to satisfy all the future agricultural, urban, and environmental uses. IRRIGATION IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST: ENVIRONMENTAL DEMANDS, TRIBAL TREATY RIGHTS, AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE By far the most significant issue confronting irrigation in the Pacific North- west is competition for water among agriculture, environmental, tribal, and, to a more limited extent, urban uses. The largest single competing demand is for water to help restore endangered salmon populations. The Columbia River basin provides ample evidence of the difficulties and transformations being experi- enced in the Pacific Northwest by the various water-related interests, including the irrigation community. Also, it is a basin that calls for a new paradigm that advances environmental restoration, ecosystem management, protection of tribal treaty rights, and collaborative decision making. The Pacific Northwest region Idaho, Montana, Oregon, and Washington- is the leading producer of many crops in the United States, including apples, hops, mint, potatoes, and cherries. Irrigated agriculture also supports extensive related industries and infrastructure, such as processing, packaging, shipping, and transportation. Irrigation in the region began on a small scale, started by several American Indian tribes at mission sites near Walla Walla and Yakima, Washing

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 151 ton, and Lewiston, Idaho. With population growth driven by trading and mining, irrigated acreage increased to one-half million acres by 1900. Large-scale irriga- tion projects authorized by passage of the Desert Land Act of 1877, the Dawes Allotment Act of 1892, the Carey Act of 1894, and, in particular, the Reclamation Act of 1902 resulted in substantial irrigation development. Today, more than 50 percent of the irrigated land in the region receives water from reclamation projects. In addition, power generated at such dams provides the low-cost energy required to pump irrigation water. The Columbia River basin, which includes the Snake River, covers over two- thirds of the four Pacific Northwest states. The Columbia River is controlled with a vast and complex combination of federal and nonfederal facilities. The Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation have built major dams on the river and its tributaries. The dams support flood control, irrigation, navigation, hydroelectric power generation, recreation, fish, wildlife, and water quality. The responsibility for managing these uses is shared by a number of federal, state, tribal, and local agencies. There are 14 federally recognized tribes in the Columbia River basin. Be- cause of the federal government's Indian trust responsibilities and the govern- ment-to-government relationship with tribes, special efforts are being taken to provide for meaningful participation in coordination with tribal governments in various approaches needed to respond to the changes, especially in fisheries management and recovery. Characteristics of Irrigation in the Northwest In 1990 the Pacific Northwest had a total of 10 million acres of irrigated lands. Over 7 million acres are irrigated in the Columbia River basin alone. Idaho has the largest irrigated acreage in the basin, 3.4 million acres (48.5 percent of the region's total irrigated acreage), while Washington has 1.9 million acres (27 percent), and Oregon 1.3 million acres (18.5 percent), with Montana at 0.4 million acres (6 percent) (Moore et al., 1987~. In Oregon and Idaho, agriculture is the leading industry. In Oregon the industry represents 17 percent of the economy, 25 percent if considering value ~ ~ ~ of, ~ C7 added services. In Idaho, production agriculture and food processing account for over one-third (35.9 percent) of the gross state product (Idaho Agricultural Statis- tics Service, 1992~. Irrigation efficiencies vary significantly. Approximately 90 percent of total water withdrawn in the region is for irrigation. Surface water irrigation accounts for 75 percent and ground water 28 percent. Irrigation directly out of the Colum- bia Basin in the four states is significant when considering the average seasonal water flow of the basin. The net irrigation depletion, essentially diversion minus return flows, is estimated at 14 percent of the average seasonal flow for the Columbia River basin. It is estimated that over 43 percent of irrigation in the

152 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION region is with gravity systems and 57 percent with sprinkler systems. Conversion to sprinkler systems is occurring rapidly, specifically on lands with high-value crops and in areas subject to water shortages (Bonneville Power Administration, 1993~. Irrigation in the region is characterized by a high degree of diversification and intensive land uses, varying from lands under hay production to lands with intensive irrigation of fruits and vegetables. The value of crop production ranges from $150 per acre for hay, using flood irrigation, to $6,000 per acre for apples under drip irrigation. In 1991 the gross crop value per acre in Montana was $216, Idaho $457, Oregon $578, and Washington $1,400. The value of crops per acre from Washington is third in the nation, after California and Arizona. The size of the farms varies from 40 acres to large operations of 10,000 to 20,000 acres. Some lands that were once classified nonirrigable under gravity are now irrigated with center pivot systems. The region contains approximately 33 million acres of land potentially irrigable with favorable soils and climate. However, many of these lands have little or no prospect for irrigation because of limited water availability or other considerations (e.g., markets, environmental restrictions, and concerns over fisheries resources). It is estimated that 20 percent of the irrigated area is subject to water shortages. Most streams in the region are fully appropriated or overappropriated, especially in adju- dicated basins or where adjudications are underway (e.g., the Yakima and Snake rivers). Large-scale irrigation proposals are very controversial. One example is the Bureau of Reclamation proposal to add over 87,000 acres to the existing Columbia Basin Irrigation Project in Washington state, served by pumping water from behind Grand Coulee Dam. The opposition stems from the argument that it is unwise to continue diversions from the river before devising a long-term strategy to address the salmon recovery and the conflicts among existing competing uses. The four states of the Pacific Northwest have similar water codes and laws, with the appropriation doctrine as the framework for water allocation. A number of major adjudications are underway in Idaho, Washington, and Montana, includ- ing several negotiations between states, tribes, and the federal government. All four states have active irrigation organizations. Most of these organizations are political subdivisions of state and local governments and municipal corporations. In Idaho and Washington, 74 percent of the irrigated land is under the control of irrigation districts, 56 percent in Oregon, and 80 percent in Montana. These districts have authority to provide water for lands within the district boundaries, to acquire facilities, to enter into agreements, and to use state loans and grants for conservation, water development, fish passage, and dry leases. With increasing competition over water supplies, all four states have enacted policies for water conservation and protection of instream flows. Water banking, water leasing, cost-sharing programs, and other incentives are being promoted in the region to facilitate conservation, efficiency, and reallocation of water for other public benefits. Oregon and Washington have adopted statutes that allow the conserved portion of a senior water right to be transferred or leased to other

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 153 users. This change offers promise both to the irrigation community and to the public through potential reallocation of "saved" water without loss of priority. Forces of Change and Responses The Columbia River has been described as a "system under stress" and poses major challenges on how better to resolve the conflicts among competing uses and resources and how to involve the large number of interests in the resolution process. In the 1930s and 1940s, hydropower development on the Columbia River system was crucial to aluminum processing and the military victory in World War II. Continued growth in the region has put steadily increasing pres- sure on the river system. The prevailing perception in the region is that there is no longer enough water to fully satisfy all of the demands. Intense competition and bitterly contested decisions over water are common. These circumstances, and in particular the Endangered Species Act listings and American Indian treaty rights, have resulted in ill-defined institutional arrangements and an unpredict- able and unduly complex decision-making process. At the present time, uncertainty is the most significant characteristic through- out the region. Short-term and long-term decisions are difficult to make given the current level of uncertainty. Competing Uses, Environmental Concerns, and Treaty Rights In addition to irrigation, the Columbia and Snake rivers have been heavily developed for hydroelectric power. The system includes 30 federal hydroelectric projects plus several local and private projects. Fifteen Northwest utilities, the Corps of Engineers, and the Bureau of Reclamation are the primary beneficiaries of the dams. Hydroelectric dams on the Columbia and Snake rivers are the foundation of the Pacific Northwest' s power supply. Hydroelectric power is a critical factor in the thriving economy of the region. Over two-thirds of the region's power is from hydroelectric generation. Power produced at dams in the region serves customers both locally and in other states. Hydropower generated at Reclama- tion dams provides low-cost power needed to pump water and operate sprinkler systems. Over the years, however, hydropower development has altered, degraded, and eliminated fish habitat in the Columbia and Snake rivers. The hydropower system is undergoing operational changes as a result of efforts to facilitate salmon recovery and has run into conflict with American Indian treaty rights. Drafting the reservoirs at certain times of the year to provide additional flows for fish passage will decrease generating efficiency and may result in wholesale rate increases.

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' I''' ~ ib l""g' ' "' '' ' " ' ~i - '' d""' th' ' "'f' d' 1; ............................................................................................................................ ~ "e.""s,"2,',s - A ' i" i' ' ' 1''' ' ' ' ' 1' ' i' ' --j~ ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: T ....................................................................................................... ~_ ~ ne~ pa-~-les~ ln lne ~!amaTn .~.Iver~ Das-l-n~ are~ ~-u-l-!-al-ng~ a~ lOng--te-rm~ l-nsil-tu-ll-ona!~ :::::::::::::::.::::::::::.::::::::::::~::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::i:~:::::::::::::::::.:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: ~ sl-ru-clu-re---Tor--cooperailve---wa er---manage-ment~ oasea---on---a---system---oT---I-aws~ n-l-sio-rl- al~ . .... .......................... - - - - ~ tl ~ th 11 ~1 ~ S 1 ~ t ~ Ql g t tH S 1- tlQ Qt UlS ............................ ~ The reservoirs behind dams also created a navigation industry, and inland waterway navigation and water transportation are key elements of the Pacific Northwest' s regional development and growth. Economic benefits occur to cit- ies, communities, and the region. Agricultural producers rely on the inexpensive, reliable, and accessible water transportation system. But the higher river flows needed to improve salmon survival may lower the reservoirs and hinder transpor- tation.

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 155 Recreation also competes for water. The recreational facilities of the Colum- bia River basin attract visitors from all parts of the country. Boating, windsurfing, and fishing are a few of the popular recreational activities throughout the basin, especially in the summer. They provide major economic benefit to various communities. Recreation relies on stable flows and water levels. Changing river flows and reservoirs levels will affect the quality of the recreational activities. Another competing demand is municipal and industrial water supply. The combined population of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana in 1990 was over 9.5 million people, increasing at an annual growth rate of 2.2 percent. The population of the Pacific Northwest is projected to grow by about 30 percent between 1990 and 2010. The majority of the growth is occurring in urban areas. For example, the Willamette Valley area is the highest agricultural producer in Oregon and is also home to 70 percent of the state's total population; major urban development is encroaching along the valley corridor and competing with irriga- tion for the limited water resources. Flood control is an important priority for river operations. Construction and operation of projects in the United States and Canada have dramatically reduced the damage caused by floods from the Columbia River. Drawdowns and releases to mitigate floods are being evaluated to maximize the availability of water for fish, especially in low-water years. The water quality in the Columbia basin is relatively good. There are few sources of industrial and municipal waste. However, nonpoint sources, irrigation withdrawals and returns, dams, and water releases are major issues in many tributaries and reservoirs. Irrigation return flows are a major source of nonpoint- source pollution. Studies conducted along the Yakima, Umatilla, and Okanogan rivers identified water quality degradation, especially during summer months, from both irrigation withdrawals and return flows carrying nutrients, pesticides, and sediments. Water diversions for irrigation reduce flow rates, causing loss of spawning areas, higher temperature, and higher concentration of pollutants. Also, unscreened or improperly screened diversions result in fish mortality. Anadromous fish of the Columbia and Snake river basins are in the center of much economic, political, and social debate regarding the lengths to which the region should go to restore the salmon and steelhead. Of 320 stocks, 261 are (or were) found in the waters of Oregon, Idaho, and Washington. Of this total, 106 major stocks of native salmon and steelhead are now extinct, and another 102 are at high risk of extinction (American Fisheries Society, 1991~. The Northwest Power Planning Council, a regional organization, estimates that Columbia River basin salmon and steelhead runs ranged between 10 and 16 million wild fish prior to modern development. Since 1970, the number of adult salmon and steelhead entering the Columbia ranged from 0.9 million in 1983, to 2.9 million in 1986, to 1.1 million in 1990 (Northwest Power Planning Council, 1994~. The decline of wild runs has been so severe that three stocks are now listed under the Endangered Species Act. The threats affecting each stock include

156 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION habitat destruction and alteration, overfishing, disease, and competition with hatchery fish. Agricultural activities also have harmed the salmon habitat through- out the basin. The adverse effects of irrigation include increased temperatures; increased erosion and sedimentation; reduced flows in spawning areas, especially in tributaries; blockage of fish migration; loss due to unscreened diversions; and degradation of water quality. To counter these negative influences, salmon re- covery efforts are going forward, including studies of new reservoir sites, new reservoir drawdown strategies, fish hatchery operational changes, and water man- agement opportunities such as water conservation, transfer, marketing, pricing, and conjunctive use of ground and surface water. Salmon are more than a source of food in the Pacific Northwest they have a spiritual role in Northwest American Indian culture. American Indians have strong ties to the river system and the salmon. Northwest tribes hold significant claims for water for irrigation and protection of fisheries and other purposes. As a result of treaties and federal statutes, Northwest tribes hold and exercise rights beyond their reservation boundaries. Conflicts between various tribes and states over tribal fisheries have resulted in the court reaffirming the tribal rights to share equitably in the harvest of the salmon and steelhead and to continue fishing in their usual and accustomed places. The tribes now participate in decisions affect- ing management and recovery of fisheries resources. Many tribes feel, however, that more emphasis is being placed on the cost of environmental protection and less on its value. Although the focus in the region is on salmon and steelhead, wildlife and resident fish, which live year-round in the rivers and reservoirs are also very important. Several national wildlife refuges are located adjacent to the Columbia and Snake rivers. Many of the riparian areas and wetlands were established as a result of the construction of the dams and reservoirs. They rely on stable or minimum flows and reservoir level fluctuations. Resident fish have been im- pacted by the reservoirs, diversions, and habitat destruction. Recovery and pres- ervation of resident fish are being addressed by the various federal, state, tribal, and regional institutions. Watershed management and cooperative habitat pro- tection are being promoted and implemented in several areas. Regional Institutional Processes and Responses The Columbia River system is complex, and changes to benefit any particu- lar use will inevitably affect other uses. As the pressures in the region continue to grow because of urbanization, economic development, and environmental and resource management concerns, the competition for control of water resources will become even more intense. Demand for water for environmental uses, particularly the protection of endangered salmon species, is the most controver- sial issue affecting irrigators in the Pacific Northwest.

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 157 Agencies have numerous processes and responses underway in the region, ranging from conservation studies and water acquisition to salmon recovery and rebuilding plans. The Northwest Pacific is known for its megabureaucracy. Indeed, the challenge in the region revolves around integrating and coordinating the activities of numerous agencies at the state, tribal, local, and federal levels. The Corps of Engineers and Bureau of Reclamation built and operate dams for flood control, irrigation, and hydropower. The Bonneville Power Administration sells the power from federal dams to utilities throughout the region. Although these three agencies have primary responsibilities for the river operation, other federal, regional, tribal, state, and local governments play critical roles. Histori- cally, each of these agencies had primary mandates. However, that is changing, and new responsibilities and missions have been added, such as fisheries, recre- ation, and tribal trust. Conflicts between and within the agencies regarding river operations are common. Several biological, hydrological, and engineering studies are underway to review river operations. For example, the Bureau of Reclamation is conducting a review of operations in the Snake River basin with the goal to develop a model to better manage water and related resources at 10 Reclamation projects. Some of these projects provide extensive irrigation water. Changes in reservoir operation, storage, and diversions are likely to be recommended. In addition, the Bonneville Power Administration, Corps of Engineers, and Bureau of Reclamation are jointly conducting a review of the operation of the 14 Columbia River system hydroprojects (Bonneville Power Administration et al., 1994~. The goal of the "System Operation Review" is to develop a system operating strategy and a regional forum for allowing interested parties, beyond these federal agencies, a long-term role in system planning. No preferred operat- ing strategy has been selected. The National Marine Fisheries Service is also studying threatened and en- dangered salmon, and it is responsible for developing a recovery plan and issuing biological opinions. The Fish and Wildlife Service has similar responsibility for other species. The most recent biological opinion recommended only minor changes in the existing system, to the great concern of the Northwest tribes and others (Columbia River Intertribal Fish Commission, letter to William Stelle, Regional Director for National Marine Fisheries Service, February 10, 1995~. In the Northwest, institutions are trying to settle the problem of the salmon using a mix of local and regional activities. For example, when the Endangered Species Act petitions were filed, political pressure mounted for the region to find its own solutions before the actual listing. A "Salmon Summit" was convened to develop and put into place a plan to rebuild the stocks targeted by the Endangered Species Act petition. The summit resulted in a plan in 1991 that called for various measures, including providing additional storage water, installing screens and bypass facilities at irrigation diversions, testing the effects of drawdown, and maximizing fish transport.

158 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION The Northwest Power Planning Council a regional organization made up of representatives of the four states, develops Power Plans and Fish and Wildlife Programs for the Columbia River basin. In 1991 the council, in response to potential listing of endangered species and in response to a request of the gover- nors of the four states following the Salmon Summit, embarked on a salmon rebuilding program. The position of the council is that those who use the river should bear their share of the costs of measures needed to rebuild fish stocks. Although the council does not play a direct role in shaping the future of irrigation, it has incorporated in its Fish and Wildlife Program actions that will have an impact on agricultural irrigation. The NPPC has approved several actions intended to assist in the recovery of the Snake River salmon runs. These actions, which are being implemented by the Bureau of Reclamation and the states, include limited future water withdrawals, flow augmentation, water acquisition, new storage assessment, and uncontracted storage space. These significant actions affect and involve the irrigation commu- nity in all four states, but especially in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. For example, in the Snake River basin a report prepared for the Northwest Power Planning Council and the Bonneville Power Administration has identified water management opportunities in Oregon and Idaho to secure at least one million acre-feet of water per year for the Snake River basin. The findings and conclu- sions of the study show that by using water use efficiencies, market mechanisms, water transactions, and land fallowing and implementing on-farm management and conservation measures, at least one million acre-feet of water can be acquired annually from existing uses, although no water acquisition has occurred yet. At the individual state level, Oregon and Washington embarked on an effort to restrict water withdrawals from the Columbia and Snake rivers and their tribu- taries, following the listing of the Snake River sockeye. This restrictive policy, coupled with an aggressive instream flow program, places most agricultural wa- ter users in the position of having to become more efficient with their existing water use. At the local level, watershed management and regional planning programs involving irrigation districts and individuals are working to improve water qual- ity and quantity and to identify and carry out irrigation water management im- provements on the ground. The states of Washington and Oregon have provided grants and loans to help these efforts. In addition, irrigation and hydropower users and environmental and tribal representatives are participating in local efforts to design solutions to water man- agement problems. Incentive-based conservation programs are being imple- mented throughout the region to encourage conservation, reallocation, and water acquisition. In Oregon a new organization, "The Oregon Water Trust," patterned after the Nature Conservancy, was formed for the purpose of purchasing water mostly from irrigators for instream uses. The irrigation community is playing an important role in defining and implementing the trust. In the Deschutes Basin,

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 159 the Environmental Defense Fund, the Confederated Tribes of the Warm Springs Reservation of Oregon, and the irrigation districts have entered into a contract with the Bureau of Reclamation for a demonstration project to implement water conservation and secure conserved water and to review the institutional con- straints and propose changes to make water leasing projects more effective. The Umatilla example is another illustration that fish enhancement and irri- gation can be compatible. The Umatilla River is a tributary of the Columbia River that drains farmland and parts of the Umatilla Indian Reservation in north- east Oregon. Irrigation diversions had dried up the river for over 20 years, and its salmon runs were history. Broad political support was built for a comprehensive restoration project. The Umatilla Tribes, Oregon fish and wildlife agencies, and the irrigators have restored some fish runs and are working to restore flows to the lower river and keep the farm economy whole. The irrigation water now taken from the Umatilla will be replaced by water pumped from the Lower Columbia River. Although there are cooperative efforts underway to recover fish populations, and some local successes, the enormous scope of the salmon recovery effort, traditional water management policies and politics, the inadequacy of the existing institutions, and the multitude of competing interests are major constraints. Conclusion The future of irrigation in the Pacific Northwest is closely related to the future of the Columbia River. The decision to recover salmon in the Northwest involves trade-offs and will require broad cooperation. Opportunities and tools exist to address the needs of the salmon and steelhead but not without costs. How significantly agricultural irrigation will be affected is going to depend on its willingness to participate and contribute to the enormous effort of rebuilding the salmon populations. Although today there is no consensus on how the conflicts and changes should be resolved, there is more of an awareness of the limits that individual state, tribal, and federal governments have in resolving these highly complex and controversial conflicts. It is obvious that accommodation of the many demands cannot be done without using a comprehensive ecosystem approach and unprec- edented legal and institutional collaboration among the multiusers, multiinterests, and multijurisdictions. Like the Columbia River itself, the challenge of providing water and other measures to protect salmon binds together all water users in the basin. In this context, it is stakeholders who develop more effective means to resolve conflicts, develop consensus, provide flexibility to respond to changing needs, improve the efficiency of water for irrigation, and optimize the allocation of water resources. Full public participation must be sought, and economic and social impacts must be considered.

160 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION IRRIGATED AGRICULTURE IN FLORIDA: INSTITUTIONS AND INDUSTRY IN TRANSITION Unlike most areas dependent on irrigation, annual rainfall in Florida consis- tently exceeds evapotranspiration. Nevertheless, irrigation is required by the marked seasonality of rainfall in Florida. The ability to apply supplemental water during the dry spring months is essential to produce agricultural crops and to maintain urban landscapes. As with many states in the arid West, the competition for water, expanding environmental constraints, and rapidly changing market conditions are major factors influencing irrigation in the Southeast. In addition, differences in climate, natural environment, soils, and prevailing cropping patterns create distinct chal- lenges for the management of irrigation systems in Florida (Camp et al., 1990~. Irrigation in Florida provides a hedge against droughts and freezes, and it is an important element in achieving optimal yields. Reliable irrigation allows farmers to produce high-value crops and to meet market windows that are closed to other parts of the country because of climate. Reliance on ground water is the rule for the majority of Florida agriculture. In spite of high annual rainfall, surface supplies are the primary irrigation source only in the region adjacent to Lake Okeechobee, which includes Florida's sugarcane acreage and important amounts of vegetables, citrus, and sod. Characteristics of Irrigation in Florida In 1950, irrigated cropland in Florida was estimated at 300,000 acres. Fol- lowing the droughts of the early 1960s, irrigated acreage jumped to over one million acres. By 1978 the irrigated area had climbed to over 2 million acres, only to drop by 400,000 acres because of freezes in the 1980s. Withdrawals totaled 3.8 million gallons per day, of which 53 percent was ground water and 47 percent was surface water. Agricultural expansion over the next decade raised the irrigated area to 2.1 million acres by 1992. Agriculture was the largest user of water in Florida in 1990 (Marella,1992~. Citrus crops account for the largest acreage and withdrawals for irrigation (33 percent). Other crops with significant water use are sugarcane (22 percent), sod (5 percent), and turfgrass on golf courses (5 percent) (Marella, 1992~. The 1987 Census of Agriculture ranked Florida fourth nationally in market value of agricul- tural products sold from irrigated farms ($3.3 billion). In 1990, Florida had the largest irrigation withdrawals of any state east of the Mississippi River (Marella, 1992~. Florida applies more irrigation water per acre than does Texas, even though rainfall in Florida far exceeds that in Texas (Bajwa, 1985~. Since 1972, Florida has been governed by one of the most progressive water resource management statutes in the country. In response to one of the worst droughts in the state's history in 1971, and public concern about the need for

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 161 oversight of water resource management in the face of rapid population growth, the state created five regional Water Management Districts (WMDs). These agencies have the legal authority and financial capacity to manage water compre- hensively through regulation of all water use and surface water management, setting criteria for water quality and wetland protection, and imposing conserva- tion and water shortage management. They also have evolved into the largest landowners in the state through well-funded land acquisition programs designed to preserve Florida' s environmental and water-related resources. Water in Florida belongs to the people collectively and can only be used according to administrative and resource protection criteria set by the WMDs. The license to use water is a temporary benefit that is reevaluated every 5 to 10 years. This exposes large irrigation users to possible reallocation to other con- sumptive uses, such as potable supply for cities. It also provides flexibility for changing social and political values, such as wetland protection, and allows the WMDs to mandate the adoption of the most efficient irrigation technology where that is warranted. The WMDs began as water resource agencies dedicated to water supply and flood control. They have evolved into powerful and well-financed entities domi- nated by environmental protection and land acquisition and management man- dates in addition to their traditional water resource roles. The comprehensive legal framework enacted in 1972 has allowed the WMDs to preside over an orderly allocation process as the state's abundant water was made available to fuel agricultural and urban growth. Now they are facing the prospect of having to tell some potential users "no," and even some existing users "no more." This process will not be nearly as orderly as the initial exercise of their authority. The institution itself is under pressure to a degree it has never been in the past. It is too early to tell which issue will dominate in the next evolutionary phase of water management in Florida, but water supply is clearly the issue that will focus the spotlight on the Water Management Districts. Forces of Change and Responses Despite averaging over 50 inches of rain per year, Florida is facing chal- lenges to the use of water for irrigation that are strikingly similar to those in California, namely, growing environmental and urban demands for water. The urban population is growing steadily and is finding its traditional water sources no longer sufficient. Florida's population has doubled in the past 20 years and is slated to reach 16 million by the year 2000. This growth is an unrelenting challenge to water management that is testing the state's institutional capacity to balance the competing demands on the natural resources. In addition, the people of Florida are beginning to question some of the environmental trade-offs that past generations were willing to make to encourage economic development. In a state dominated by urban population centers, the lack of understanding and ac

162 A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION ceptance of the value of agriculture poses a constant challenge to the irrigation industry. Environmental Issues The extraordinary commitment that Florida has made to irrigated agriculture has resulted in significant impacts to water-related environmental resources. Water levels in many lakes in central Florida are falling and require augmentation from wells to maintain surface levels. Wetlands adjacent to some irrigated lands are being degraded, if not completely eliminated. Water quality problems from agriculture are caused not by return flows as is the case in the West, but by stormwater runoff. Runoff from sugarcane and vegetable production in the Ever- glades Agricultural Area (EAA) is a leading concern of government agencies charged with the protection of the Everglades ecosystem. Even in areas where irrigation water supplies have not been limiting, concern over contaminants in runoff, especially nutrients, is leading to a reduction in farm acreage. The large-scale environmental systems, which include not only the Ever- glades, but also the many estuarine areas that evolved under water-rich condi- tions, have become a dominant force in the debate over future water use. The goal of ecosystem restoration has become a direct limit on new water use in adjacent areas and is also being debated by government, industry, and environ- mental groups considering reallocation of water from existing uses to the environ- ment. One of the most critical and controversial environmental issues in Florida centers on the nutrient enrichment of portions of the Everglades by stormwater runoff from the sugarcane and vegetable fields south of Lake Okeechobee. In the 1960s, some 500,000 acres of sawgrass prairie were transformed into the Ever- glades Agricultural Area by the federally authorized and constructed Central and Southern Florida Project. Currently, there are approximately 425,000 acres in sugarcane, 32,500 acres in vegetables, 12,000 acres in rice, and 25,000 acres in sod production. Vegetable farmers grow multiple crops, so the actual vegetable acreage harvested is closer to 70,000 acres. Most farms within the EAA are large, encompassing thousands of acres. Irrigation and drainage are provided by an on- farm network of canals connected to the federal Central and Southern Florida Project. The Everglades evolved 5,000 years ago as an oligotropic (very low in nutrients) system. Today, stormwater runoff from the EAA is pumped directly into the remaining undeveloped Everglades. The water, while very low in phos- phorus compared to other agricultural or urban runoff, contains phosphorus con- centrations about 15 times the background levels of the marsh (150 versus 10 parts per billion). The runoff coming from the EAA is considered one of the contributing factors in the expansion of dense cattail growth into native sawgrass prairie systems.

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 163 The controversy over water quality problems in the Everglades spawned 5 years of bitter litigation between cane and vegetable growers and state and fed- eral agencies. In 1994 the state passed special legislation outlining an interim approach to the problem the construction over the next decade of 40,000 acres of artificial marshes to act as nutrient filters for the runoff. The cost to farmers is expected to be between $200 and $320 million over the next 20 years, and 25,000 acres will be removed from production. Federal resource agencies are in the early stages of considering proposals to remove another 100,000 acres of the most productive land from production in the next 10 years. This approach to solving the water quality problems of the Everglades has come with another significant cost. The years of expensive litigation have reduced the potential for collaborative efforts between the government, agriculture, and environmental groups. A case with far less controversy centers on the expansion of citrus produc- tion into southwest Florida. Florida was hit in the early 1980s by a series of freezes that severely damaged production in the historic citrus belt in the center of the state. Since that time, citrus production has been moving south to avoid frost damage. Citrus acreage south of Lake Okeechobee has doubled in the past 10 years to 148,000 acres. Permitting for new groves continues, and the total irrigated area could climb another 50,000 acres by the year 2000 (Mazotti et al., 1992), although weakened market conditions may delay this process. Historically, the southwest Florida citrus area consisted of wetlands (61 percent) and uplands (39 percent) dominated by pine flatwoods. By 1973, some 36 percent of the total area had been converted to agricultural use, first to pasture and then to crops and citrus. Today, 60 percent of the freshwater marshes and 88 percent of the pinelands have been lost. Although citrus groves do not necessar- ily eliminate biological diversity (Mazotti et al., 1992), the linkage between uplands and wetlands is critical to maintaining biological integrity. The frag- mented remnant flatwoods are critical habitat for more wildlife species than any other cover type and are vulnerable to further development. In response to the continuing loss of temporary wetlands, and the loss or fragmentation of forest and range habitats, the South Florida WMD is developing new rules to require a thorough evaluation of every new and existing water use to eliminate any detrimental effects on wetlands. Federal agencies are also requir- ing endangered species reviews on all major changes in upland areas. The citrus industry has responded quickly to these changes. Citrus farmers have been pioneers in the development of new technology for water conservation, and they have worked with regulatory agencies to find ways to preserve many habitat values. While they are certainly not immune from the environmental and com- petitive forces facing agriculture, they have not been confronted with the intense pressures facing farmers in the Everglades.

164 Water Supply Issues A NEW ERA FOR IRRIGATION In Florida, water conservation has become a necessity. In some areas, avail- able supplies are limited by subsurface salt water intrusion; in other areas, sup- plies are limited by competing needs of nearby wetlands. There has been an aggressive initiative by agribusiness to develop the most efficient irrigation sys- tems possible. There has also been an equally determined program by govern- ment institutions to encourage and, in some areas, mandate such technology shifts. In the mid-1980s, there was considerable focus on increasing irrigation as- . Decency. Of the more than 4.6 million acres of commercial agricultural land in Florida, over 2 million acres (44 percent) are irrigated (Smajstrla et al., 1993~. Farmers have begun to adopt more efficient irrigation technologies, including microirrigation. Currently, 418,000 acres are irrigated with microirrigation systems, and almost 94 percent of these acres are in fruit crops, primarily citrus. Approximately 50 percent of the current 2 million acres are adaptable and may be expected to convert to microirrigation. The rate of conversion is estimated to be about 31,000 acres per year, with most of this occurring in fruit and vegetable crops (Smajstrla et al., 1993~. In Orlando, 23 million gallons per day of reclaimed water is now being distributed to citrus groves for irrigation. The water, which has to meet rigorous water quality standards, is being used on 21 grove sites through 29 miles of pressurized distribution lines. To help meet the demands for citrus and turfgrass irrigation, and address the increased competition for water use, reclaimed waste- water for irrigation has increased from zero in 1970 to 51 million gallons per day in 1985 and to 170 in 1990. The significance of water supply issues, specifically the competition be- tween urban and agricultural water uses, can be seen in the example of the Tampa Bay region. In 1989, agricultural water use accounted for 64 percent of the total ground water withdrawn in the Floridan aquifer, the area's primary source of water, west and south of Tampa Bay. Citrus, tomatoes, and other vegetables make up the largest irrigated acreage in the area. Except for relatively short-term fluctuations caused by freezes, total citrus acreage has remained fairly constant at about 260,000 acres since the 1960s. Continued use of the aquifer would result in salt water intrusion, permanent decline in lake levels, and the loss of wetlands. The water level in one of the most severely affected lakes has dropped 14 feet in the past 10 years. Over 90 lakes in the area require well water augmentation to maintain water levels (Bajwa,1985~. Test wells in Hillsborough and Sarasota counties have doubled in chloride con- tent to 1,900 and 1,400 milligrams per liter, respectively. In response to these problems, the Southwest Florida WMD has stopped issuing new permits for ground water withdrawals until regulations requiring increased water use effi- ciency for all users can be implemented. Water-conserving technologies will be required for both new and existing users. Agricultural water use permits will be

THE IRRIGATION INDUSTRY 165 based on system efficiency, crop efficiency, and irrigation management (South- west Florida Water Management District, 1993~. The citrus industry, which has already installed microirrigation technology, is not expected to be affected. To- mato, melon, and potato farmers are expected to convert to fully enclosed seep- age techniques or add drip irrigation. A preliminary economic analysis commissioned by the Southwest Florida WMD found that the plan is not expected to significantly reduce the agricultural economy in terms of sales and employment through the year 2015. However, irrigators will be required to finance new water conservation technologies, which will lower business earnings. If growers maintain existing irrigation system efficiencies, total acreage in production will decline. Sod production is expected to shift to sprinkler systems to increase irrigation efficiency. Conclusion Although national statistics on the importance of irrigation are dominated by western states, Florida is ranked tenth in total irrigated acreage (2.1 million acres) and fourth in market value of irrigated crops harvested ($3.3 billion). Irrigated agriculture in Florida has grown substantially in the past decade and is projected to grow significantly over the next 30 years. Irrigation in the region relies heavily on ground water even though surface waters are extensive. Competition for water is becoming intense, as is the pressure on irrigated agriculture from environmental regulation of water and land use. Tight restric- tions on impacts to wetlands, and the desire to restore many previously disturbed natural systems, could severely limit future growth of irrigated agriculture, and in some cases may significantly reduce the number of acres in production. Agricul- ture has responded to these pressures with a more scientific approach to water use and wholesale conversion to new technology and management techniques. In some cases, though, the debate has included litigation, media warfare, and politi- cal skirmishing by both government and agriculture. In a few instances, pressure on agriculture has led to business failures and community hardship. The institu- tions that manage water have also changed, in some cases to try to solve these water problems through research and cost-sharing programs, and in others to use their regulatory power to force change on the irrigation industry. With changes in the demographic composition of the state, and related changes in political leadership, traditional alliances and public support for agri- culture are weakening. It will take years to rebuild the trust between agriculture and the government in the Everglades region. On the other hand, the long history of the citrus industry and the fact that it is not centered in or near the Everglades have nurtured a cooperative relationship between that industry and the govern- ment, one that is likely to endure. Ultimately, the future of irrigated agriculture in Florida will not be limited by the supply of water. It will depend on the ability of agriculture, urban water uses, and environmental interests to commit to a collabo

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