Computing and Communications in the Extreme

Research for Crisis Management and Other Applications

Steering Committee, Workshop Series on High Performance Computing and Communications

Computer Science and Telecommunications Board

Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications

National Research Council



National Academy Press
Washington, D.C. 1996



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--> Computing and Communications in the Extreme Research for Crisis Management and Other Applications Steering Committee, Workshop Series on High Performance Computing and Communications Computer Science and Telecommunications Board Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Applications National Research Council National Academy Press Washington, D.C. 1996

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--> NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the steering committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine . Support for this project was provided by the Department of the Navy, Office of the Chief of Naval Research, under grant number N00014-93-1-0166. The project was conducted at the request of the Department of Defense, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency. The content of this workshop report does not necessarily reflect the position or the policy of the federal government, and no official endorsement should be inferred. Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 96-60885 International Standard Book Number 0-309-05540-7 Additional copies of this report are available from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 800-624-6242 202-334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area) Copyright 1996 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America On the cover: A photograph provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency shows urban search and rescue workers in action at the Alfred P. Murrah Building in Oklahoma City, April 1995. A computer graphic produced by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, depicts a simulation of Hurricane Emily off the North Carolina Coast, September 1993.

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--> STEERING COMMITTEE, WORKSHOP SERIES ON HIGH PERFORMANCE COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATIONS KEN KENNEDY, Rice University, Chair FRANCES E. ALLEN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center VINTON G. CERF, MCI Telecommunications GEOFFREY FOX, Syracuse University WILLIAM L. SCHERLIS, Carnegie Mellon University BURTON SMITH, Tera Computer Company KAREN R. SOLLINS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Staff MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director JAMES E. MALLORY, Program Officer (through April 1995) JOHN M. GODFREY, Research Associate GAIL E. PRITCHARD, Project Assistant

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--> COMPUTER SCIENCE AND TELECOMMUNICATIONS BOARD WILLIAM A. WULF, University of Virginia, Chair FRANCES E. ALLEN, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center DAVID D. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JEFF DOZIER, University of California, Santa Barbara HENRY FUCHS, University of North Carolina CHARLES GESCHKE, Adobe Systems Incorporated JAMES GRAY, Microsoft Corporation BARBARA GROSZ, Harvard University JURIS HARTMANIS, Cornell University DEBORAH A. JOSEPH, University of Wisconsin BUTLER W. LAMPSON, Microsoft Corporation BARBARA LISKOV, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JOHN MAJOR, Motorola ROBERT L. MARTIN, AT&T Network Systems DAVID G. MESSERSCHMITT, University of California, Berkeley WILLIAM H. PRESS, Harvard University CHARLES L. SEITZ, Myricom Incorporated EDWARD H. SHORTLIFFE, Stanford University School of Medicine CASIMIR S. SKRZYPCZAK, NYNEX Corporation LESLIE L. VADASZ, Intel Corporation MARJORY S. BLUMENTHAL, Director HERBERT S. LIN, Senior Staff Officer PAUL SEMENZA, Staff Officer JERRY R. SHEEHAN, Staff Officer JEAN E. SMITH, Program Associate JOHN M. GODFREY, Research Associate LESLIE M. WADE, Research Assistant GLORIA P. BEMAH, Administrative Assistant GAIL E. PRITCHARD, Project Assistant

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--> COMMISSION ON PHYSICAL SCIENCES, MATHEMATICS, AND APPLICATIONS ROBERT J. HERMANN, United Technologies Corporation, Chair PETER M. BANKS, Environmental Research Institute of Michigan SYLVIA T. CEYER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology L. LOUIS HEGEDUS, W.R. Grace and Company (retired) JOHN E. HOPCROFT, Cornell University RHONDA J. HUGHES, Bryn Mawr College SHIRLEY A. JACKSON, U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission KENNETH I. KELLERMANN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory KEN KENNEDY, Rice University THOMAS A. PRINCE, California Institute of Technology JEROME SACKS, National Institute of Statistical Sciences L.E. SCRIVEN, University of Colorado LEON T. SILVER, California Institute of Technology CHARLES P. SLICHTER, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ALVIN W. TRIVELPIECE, Oak Ridge National Laboratory SAMUEL WINOGRAD, IBM T.J. Watson Research Center CHARLES A. ZRAKET, MITRE Corporation (retired) NORMAN METZGER, Executive Director

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--> The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Harold Liebowitz is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the federal government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce Alberts and Dr. Harold Liebowitz are chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.

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--> Preface From August 1994 to August 1995, the National Research Council's (NRC's) Computer Science and Telecommunications Board conducted a series of three workshops on research issues in high-performance computing and communications. The goal of the series w as to bring together specialists in selected, nationally important application areas and researchers from the high-performance computing and communications (HPCC) research community to explore unmet technology needs and their implications for research. The workshops were held at the request of the Department of Defense, Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA). They also drew on the interest and input of other agencies that are major supporters of HPCC research, in particular the National Science Foundation, the Department of Energy, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. The agendas and participant lists for Workshops I through III are given in Appendix A. The applications discussed in the workshops were selected both for their importance to economic and societal goals and for the diversity of challenges they pose for computing and communications research. The first workshop was held in August 1994 at the Arnold and Mabel Beckman Center of the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in Irvine, California. It considered applications in four areas of national importance: manufacturing (e.g., simulation, collaborative design) ; health care (e.g., computerized patient records, medical information, telemedicine); digital libraries (e.g., electronic storage, search and retrieval of multiple forms of information); and electronic commerce and banking (e.g., secure, distributed transactions). Although significant insights were gained from examining this broad set of

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--> applications, the steering committee decided to explore a single application area in detail to enhance understanding of computing and communications requirements both for that area and for national applications in general. In consultation with DARPA, the steering committee selected crisis management for focused study. Crisis management incorporates preparation for, response to, and recovery from natural and technological disasters such as hurricanes, earthquakes, and oil spills; political-military crises; and related emergencies. Crisis management seemed an ideal focus because its diverse problems create demands for a number of different high-performance technologies. These range from high-performance computation to high-bandwidth, intelligent, and secure communications and information systems, as well as tools to support decision making and management of distributed groups of actors in a complex, uncertain, and rapidly changing environment (analogous to command and control in military operations). Crisis management also provides a context for evaluating both where specifically high-performance technologies can make a significant contribution and where knowledge gained from research can lead to valuable advances in more mainstream (i.e., nonhigh-performance) technologies. The second workshop, held at the Beckman Center in June 1995, examined the problems presented by crisis management and the strengths and shortcomings of existing computing and communications technologies for addressing them. Both civil and military crisis management were considered, although civil applications received more attention. The steering committee and workshop participants found crisis management to be an especially fruitful source of research topics that have the potential to advance the state of computing and communications on a broad front, in addition to meeting some of the pressing technology needs of civilian and military crisis managers. The final workshop, held in August 1995 at the National Academy of Sciences Building in Washington, D.C., focused on defining key research opportunities that should be pursued to meet the needs of application areas addressed in the first two workshops . That workshop continued the emphasis on crisis management but also revisited the other application areas from the first workshop as additional sources of input and as a test of the generality of conclusions about crisis management needs. This report synthesizes and elaborates on what was learned in the three workshops. The steering committee emphasizes that it was not the goal of the series to provide recommendations on how to solve the specific problems of crisis management and other application areas in the nation today. Solving crisis management problems such as slow or incomplete delivery of food, medicine, information, and financial assistance to people affected by a disaster requires resources, expertise, and effort in many areas in addition to computing and communications (e.g., effort to address budget constraints for local and state crisis management agencies, interagency coordination, personnel training). Rather, the workshops' goal was to explore applications to gain insights into problems that

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--> computing and communications research could address, thereby helping to alleviate, with more capable or cheaper technologies, problems faced in crisis management and other nationally important application areas. In that respect the workshops proved to be a rich source of ideas for the research community to consider. The steering committee for the Workshop Series on High Performance Computing and Communications acknowledges the contributions of the workshop speakers and participants. Their insights and creativity were central to this effort. We especially thank James Beauchamp, of the U.S. Commander in Chief, Pacific Command (CINCPAC); John Hwang, Federal Emergency Management Agency; Robert Kehlet, Defense Nuclear Agency; David Kehrlein, Office of Emergency Services, State of California; and Lois Clark McCoy, National Institute of Urban Search and Rescue, as well as other crisis management professionals who educated, stimulated, and challenged a diverse group of computing and communications researchers. In addition, workshop participants Joel Saltz, of the University of Maryland, and Clifford Lynch, of the Office of the President, University of California, made valuable written contributions to the final report. The steering committee also thanks the NRC staff for their diligent assistance throughout the workshop series and preparation of the final report, including Marjory Blumenthal, John Godfrey, Gail Pritchard, and James Mallory. The steering committee and I are especially grateful to John Godfrey for his resourcefulness in identifying experts and information sources and his conscientious assistance in developing this report. His efforts to attract both crisis management and computing experts to join in this collaborative project and his consistent support in integrating materials and ideas from both perspectives were key to the successful outcome of this project. Gail Pritchard's assistance in ensuring the smooth running of the workshops and providing organizational support to the steering committee was also essential and much appreciated. Finally, the steering committee is grateful to the anonymous reviewers for helping to sharpen and improve the report through their comments. Responsibility for the report remains with the steering committee. Ken Kennedy, Chair Steering Committee, Workshop Series on High Performance Computing and Communications

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--> Contents     OVERVIEW AND SUMMARY   1 1   APPLICATION NEEDS FOR COMPUTING AND COMMUNICATIONS   8     Introduction   8     Crisis Management   10     Definition and Characteristics   10     Scenarios   16     Crisis Management Needs for Computing and Communications   16     Other Application Domains   34     Digital Libraries   35     Electronic Commerce   38     Manufacturing   42     Health Care   47     Notes   53 2   TECHNOLOGY: RESEARCH PROBLEMS MOTIVATED BY APPLICATION NEEDS   55     Introduction   55     Networking: The Need for Adaptivity   56     Self-Organization   60     Network Management   62     Security   65

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-->     Discovery of Resources   68     Virtual Subnetworks   68     Computation: Distributed Computing   69     Modeling and Simulation   70     Mobility of Computation and Data   72     Storage Servers and Meta-Data   73     Anomaly Detection and Inference of Missing Data   75     Sensors and Data Collection   75     Distributed Resource Management   77     Software System Development   78     Information Management: Finding and Integrating Resources   81     Integration and Location   84     Meta-Data and Types   88     Production and Value   89     Distribution and Relocation   90     User-centered Systems: Designing Applications to Work with People   91     Human-centered Systems and Interfaces   91     Collaboration and Virtual Organizations   93     Judgment Support   95     Notes   97 3   SUMMARY AND FINDINGS: RESEARCH FOR NATIONAL-SCALE APPLICATIONS   99     Research Challenges of Crisis Management   99     Technology Deployment and Research Progress   107     Finding 1: Crisis Management Testbeds   109     Finding 2: Studies of Existing National-scale Information Infrastructure   111     Support of Human Activities   112     Finding 3: Usability   113     Finding 4: Collaboration   116     System Composability and Interoperability   117     Finding 5: Focused Standards   118     Finding 6: Interoperability   122     Finding 7: Integration of Software Components   124     Finding 8: Legacy and Longevity   126     Adapting to Uncertainty and Change   130     Finding 9: Adaptivity   130     Finding 10: Reliability   134     Performance of Distributed Systems   136     Finding 11: Performance of Distributed Systems   136     Notes   137

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-->     BIBLIOGRAPHY   139     APPENDIXES         A Workshop Series on High Performance Computing and Communications   145     B Background—HPCCI and NII   156     C Acronyms and Abbreviations   158

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