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The Effects
A her
of a Major
Nuclear Exchange
Committee on the Atmospheric Effects
of Nuclear Explosions
Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics,
and Resources
National Research Council
NATIONAL. ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C. 1985
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NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
2101 CONSTITUTION AVE., NW
WASHINGTON, DC 20418
NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National
Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National
Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were
chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report
Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineer-
ing, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad
community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the
federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the
authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing
membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of
Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and
the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine,were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively,
under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences.
This project was supported by contract DNA001-83-C-0137 between the National Academy of Sciences and the
Defense Nuclear Agency, Department of Defense. The Defense Nuclear Agency neither confirms nor denies data cited
in this report.
Library of Congress Catalog Number 84-62739
International Standard Book Number 0-309-03528-7
Printed in the United States of America
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N ATI O N AL
RES E ARC H
COUNCI L
2101 CONSTITUTION AVENUE WASHINGTON, D. C. 20418
OFFICE OF THE CHAIRMAN
In early 1983,
_ the Department of Defense asked us to assess information
on the possible atmospheric effects of nuclear war. We formed a com-
mittee of specialists from relevant fields to conduct the assessment.
This is the committee's final report.
Nuclear war would have catastrophic effects beyond those that might
degrade the earth's atmosphere; thus our committee examined only one
part of a large and complex issue. And even within this part the
committee was asked to focus only on effects on the atmosphere and not
to carry the analysis to the next logical step: the consequences of
changes in the atmosphere for life on earth. This is an issue that
should and will be addressed.
The committee has admirably performed a task that proved even more
difficult than we had anticipated. We had appreciated the difficulty
of examining the scientific aspects of a subject that--for understand-
able reasons--provokes strong emotional reactions. An equally
formidable task, however, was that of coping with profound gaps in
existing knowledge. The unfortunate but unavoidable fact is that, even
though we are 40 years into the nuclear age, much of the basic
information needed to assess the likelihood and extent of global
atmospheric consequences of a nuclear exchange simply does not exist.
As a result, the committee has been unable to provide the simple,
unqualified finding that we all might wish to have in order to assure
that any nation's decisions about nuclear forces are not made in
ignorance of their true consequences.
Under these conditions the committee determined it could best serve by
summarizing existing knowledge, by drawing the partial conclusions
{with necessary qualifications) that are supported by data, by clearly
describing the nature and extent of uncertainties, and by indicating
where those uncertainties might be reduced through further research.
Because additional knowledge might well alter our current under-
standing, the report can only be viewed as an interim statement.
Nevertheless, we believe it can help
world's governments advance the time
question of surpassing international importance.
the scientific community and the
when we can adequately answer a
Frank Press
Chairman
1HE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL IS THE PRINCIPAL OPERATING AGENCY OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES AND THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING
TO SERVE GOVERNMENT AND OlHER ORGANI~:1 IONS .
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Committee on the Atmospheric Effects
of Nuclear Explosions
GEORGE F. CARRIER, Division of Applied Sciences, Harvard University, Cambridge,
Massachusetts; Chairman
WILLIAM J. MORAN, Vice Admiral USN (Ret.), Los Altos, California; Vice Chairman
JOHN W. BIRKS, Department of Chemistry, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
ROBERT W. DECKER, U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
DOUGLAS M. EARDLEY, Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa
Barbara, California
JAMES P. FRIEND, Department of Chemistry, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
ERIC M. JONES, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
JONATHAN I. KATZ, Department of Physics, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
SPURGEON M. KEENY, JR., National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D.C.
CONWAY B. LEOVY, Department of Atmospheric Sciences and Graduate Program in
Geophysics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington
CONRAD L. LONGMIRE, Mission Research Corporation, Santa Barbara, California
MICHAEL B. McELROY, Harvard Center for Earth and Planetary Physics, Harvard University,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
WILLIAM PRESS, Department of Astronomy, Harvard College Observatory, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
JACK P. RUINA, Department of Electrical Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology,
Cambridge, Massachusetts
EUGENE M. SHOEMAKER, U.S. Geological Survey, Flagstaff, Arizona
LEVERING SMITH, Vice Admiral USN (Ret.), San Diego, California
0. BRIAN TOON, Ames Research Center, NASA, Moffett Field, California
RICHARD P. TURCO, R&D Associates, Marina del Rey, California
Staff
LAWRENCE E. McCRAY
PEGGY POWERS
v
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Commission on Physical Sciences,
Mathematics, and Resources
HERBERT FRIEDMAN, National Research Council, Chairman
THOMAS BARROW, Standard Oil Company
ELKAN R. BLOUT, Harvard Medical School
WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University
BERNARD F. BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
GEORGE F. CARRIER, Harvard University
HERMAN CHERNOFF, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
CHARLES L. DRAKE, Dartmouth College
MILDRED S. DRESSELHAUS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOSEPH L. FISHER, Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia
JAMES C. FLETCHER, University of Pittsburgh
WILLIAM A. FOWLER, California Institute of Technology
GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory
EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Science Applications, Inc.
EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography
MARY L. GOOD, UOP, Inc.
THOMAS F. MALONE, Saint Joseph College
CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey
WALTER H. MUNK, University of California, San Diego
GEORGE E. PAKE, Xerox Research Center
ROBERT E. SIEVERS, University of Colorado
HOWARD E. SIMMONS, JR., E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Co., Inc.
ISADORE M. SINGER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
JOHN D. SPENGLER, Harvard School of Public Health
HATTEN S. YODER, JR., Carnegie Institution of Washington
RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director
LAWRENCE E. McCRAY, Associate Executive Director
V1
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Acknowledgments
The committee expresses its appreciation for the contributions of the following individuals:
Thomas Ackerman, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Marcia Baker, University of Washington
Robert Cess, State University of New York, Stony Brook
Robert Charlson, University of Washington
Anthony Clarke, University of Washington
Peter Connell, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Curt Covey, National Center for Atmospheric Research
John De Ris, Factory Mutual Corporation
Robert Dickinson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Frank Fendell, TRW, Inc.
Paul Guthals, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Robert Haberle, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Lee Hunt, National Research Council
Jerry Mahlman, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory
Robert Malone, Los Alamos National Laboratory
Michael MacCracken, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
Elizabeth Panos, National Research Council
Joyce Penner, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
James Pollack, National Aeronautics and Space Administration
Roseanne Price, National Research Council
S.J. Pyne, University of Iowa
Lawrence Radke, University of Washington
V. Ramanathan, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Stephen Schneider, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Donald Shapero, National Research Council
Renee St. Pierre, National Research Council
Starley Thompson, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Stephen Warren, University of Washington
Barbara Yoon, R&D Associates
. .
V11
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Contents
1 Summary and Conclusions
2 Recommendations for Research
3
4 Dust
5 Fires
6 Chemistry
The Baseline Nuclear Exchange
10
13
17
36
107
7 Atmospheric Effects and Interactions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 127
8
Use of Climatic Effects of VoIcanic Eruptions and
Extraterrestrial Impacts on the Earth as Analogs
Appendix: Evolution of Knowledge About
Long-Term Nuclear Effects . .
Index
1X
174
185
189
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