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APPENDICES

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APPENDIX A Contents, Assessing Knowledge of Retirement Behavior The papers in Assessing Knowledge of Retirement Behavior (Hanushek and Maritato, 1996) were originally presented in September 1994 at the panel's Con- ference on Modeling the Impact of Public and Private Policies on Retirement Behavior and Income: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know? They were subsequently modified to incorporate the comments of discussants at the conference, panel members, and reviewers. The papers and the workshop discussion contributed significantly to the panel's work and our report. INTRODUCTION, Eric A. Hanushek and Nancy L. Maritato Income and Wealth of Older American Households Labor Supply Behavior Personal Saving Behavior Employer Behavior Mortality, Health Status, and Health Care Costs A Framework for Analyzing Retirement Income Security Conclusion 2 INCOME AND WEALTH OF OLDER AMERICAN HOUSEHOLDS: MODELING ISSUES FOR PUBLIC POLICY ANALYSIS, Alan L. Gustman and F. Thomas Juster Conceptual Overview Components of Income and Wealth of Older Households Income Distribution Issues 175

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176 ASSESSING POLICIES FOR RETIREMENT INCOME Models of Individual and Firm Behavior Explaining Retirement Income and Wealth Income From Earnings Based on Labor Supply Decisions Savings and Wealth Determination Life-Cycle Analysis Precautionary Models of Savings Bequest Motive Research Integrating These Motives Research That Imposes Only Limited Structure Research Arguing That Full Optimization Is Unlikely Continuing Controversy in the Savings Literature Pensions and Social Security At the Level of the Individual Pension Plan Determination at the Level of the Firm Research on Family Structures and Transfers Research on Housing Reconciling Research on Labor Supply, Savings, and Pensions Models and Data Needed to Understand the Incomes and Wealth of Older Americans Selected Policies Affecting Retirement Incomes and Wealth 3 FACTORS AFFECTING LABOR SUPPLY DECISIONS AND RETIREMENT INCOME, Robin L. Lumsdaine Summary of Trends Social Security Pensions and Window Plans Literature Review and Previous Methodology What We Would Like to Know Disability Literature Review and Previous Methodology What We Would Like to Know Medicare and Health Insurance Literature Review and Previous Methodology What We Would Like to Know Hours Flexibility and Career Jobs Literature Review and Previous Methodology What We Would Like to Know Conclusions Expectations Endogeneity Uncertainty Data Issues Other Concerns

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CONTENTS, ASSESSING KNOWLEDGE OF RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR 4 PERSONAL SAVING BEHAVIOR AND RETIREMENT INCOME MODELING: A RESEARCH ASSESSMENT, James M. Poterba Forecasting Financial Status: An Organizing Framework Patterns of Wealth Holding for Pre-Retirement Cohorts Rates of Return Age-Specific Patterns of Net Saving Motives for and Models of Private Saving: What Do We Know? Social Security and Private Saving Private Pensions and Saving Targeted Retirement Saving Accounts and Personal Saving Prospective Accumulation in Targeted Saving Accounts Net Saving Effects Withdrawal Behavior Housing Wealth and Other Private Saving Conclusion and Future Research Needs 5 RETIREMENT AGE AND RETIREMENT INCOME: THE ROLE OF THE FIRM, Donald 0. Parsons The Aging Worker and the Firm The Aging Worker The Firm Scale Economies in Pension Administration Diseconomies of Scale in Idiosyncratic Decisions The Employment of Older Workers Compensation Profiles Mandatory Retirement Rules New-Hire Policies Employer-Provided Pensions The Locus of Pension Coverage Trends in Pension Coverage A Pension Puzzle Conclusions Basic Data Needs The Ideal: Matched Worker/Firm Surveys of Workplaces Second Best: Employer Surveys with Estimates of Worker Characteristics Case Studies Administrative Cost Surveys Historical Analyses of Firm Behavior Basic Research The Determinants of Industry Structure The Firm, Information, and Control Aging and the Firm: Unfinished Business 177

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178 ASSESSING POLICIES FOR RETIREMENT INCOME Priority Topics Age Profiles of Productivity The "Ideal" Workplace Age Distribution Employment Practices in Small Firms Pension Design Pension Coverage and Pension "Receipt" Emerging Issues Early Retirement Incentive Plans Employer-Provided Health Insurance for Retirees 6 ASSESSING FORECASTS OF MORTALITY, HEALTH STATUS, AND HEALTH COSTS DURING BABY BOOMERS' RETIREMENT. Ronald D. Lee and Jonathan Skinner How Rapidly Will Mortality Decline? Mortality Decline in the United States During the 20th Century Comparisons of Forecasts Other Methods of Forecasting Mortality Change Evaluating the Uncertainty of Mortality Forecasts Some Specific Research Suggestions Using Existing Data and Established Methods Recommended Improvements in Data Recommended Research on Modeling and Methods Health Status Projections and the Compression of Disability The Compression Debate Strategies to Modeling Disability Recommendations for Improving Modeling and Data Collection Predicting Health Care Costs Predicting Real Health Care Services by Demographic Group Predicting Health Care Quantities and Prices for the Next Century Conceptual Issues in Modeling Health Care Cost Projections How Will Changing Mortality, Health, and Health Costs Affect Retirement Income Security? The Effect of Changes in the Demographic Structure on Income Security for the Elderly Traditional Approaches Stochastic Population Forecasts The Impact of Improving Patterns of Disability on Delaying Retirement The Distribution of Health Expenses Among Out-of-Pocket, Private Insurance, and Public Insurance The Distribution of Retirement Income Conclusion

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CONTENTS, ASSESSING KNOWLEDGE OF RETIREMENT BEHAVIOR 7 A FRAMEWORK FOR ANALYZING FUTURE RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY, Gary Burtless Micro Models of Retirement Income Social Security Forecasts Employer-Sponsored Pensions Household Saving Dynamic Microsimulation Rationale Disadvantages Macroeconomic Modeling Determination of Aggregate Output Alternative Saving Models Cycles Conclusion 179