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OCR for page 233
Index
A
Academic centers, 170- 172
Administrative costs, 34
Administrative records
aggregate comparisons of surveys with,
128
employer data, 123- 124
household survey reports compared with,
129-130
individual data, 121- 123
linkage with other data collections, 6
microlevel comparisons of surveys with,
128-129
nonsampling errors in, 125
recommendations for, 6, 124
role of, 120-121
trade-offs in data collection, 69-70
Age of retirement
application for pension benefits, 49
determinants, 50
implications for retirement income
security, 24
mandatory, 43
predictive modeling, 50
Social Security system provisions, 26
trends, 24
Agency for Health Care Policy and
Research, 62
233
AHEAD. See Asset and Health Dynamics
Among the Oldest Old
Analytical models
consumption-saving motivations, 46
data collection for, 70
labor-leisure choices, 51
need for, 41, 57
research needs, 51
role of, 15, 132
Asset and Health Dynamics Among the
Oldest Old (AHEAD), 5, 7, 168
contributions of, 48, 54, 88, 170-171
cross-survey reviews, 95
databases, 88-89
design and management of, 170- 171
on expenditures, 94
family asset surveys, 93
future prospects, 91 -92, 180- 181
goals, 48, 57, 88, 180
incorporating employer survey in, 116
119
linkage with administrative data, 5, 122
123
matched S SA files, 122- 123
medical cost data, 57
opportunities for validation studies, 130
participants, 88, 180
recommendations for, 5, 96, 120
time horizons, 151 - 152
OCR for page 234
234
use of data in microsimulations, 143,
145-146, 151-152
B
Bankruptcy modeling, 138- 139
Bootstrapping, 154
Bureau of Labor Statistics, 110, 116, 167
See also Employee Benefits Survey
C
Cell-based models, 15, 133-134, 139, 141,
142
current systems, 196- 197
Census Bureau, 45, 53, 116, 121, 158, 167
access to confidential data of, 123-124,
129
longitudinal research database, 101- 102
Computable general equilibrium models, 15,
135
current systems, 139, 197-198
Confidentiality, 6, 121, 122, 123, 124, 129
Congressional Budget Office modeling
strategies, 160- 162
Consumer Expenditure Survey, 90-91, 187-
188
Consumption
after retirement, 47
criteria for policy evaluation, 33
data sources, 48, 90-91
life-cycle models, 46
panel survey data, 92-93, 94
projection modeling, 49
research needs, 4, 47, 58-59
CORSIM, 143n., 193-194
Cost-benefit analysis, 15- 16
Cost of health care
cross-sectional survey of expenditures,
189
current policy concerns, 2
drivers of, 56
future prospects, 23, 25
microsimulations, 147
near-term policy options, 30-31
obstacles to projective modeling, 56
out-of-pocket expenditures, 23
projection modeling, 30
research needs, 4
significance of, for retirement income
security, 12, 56
INDEX
spending patterns, 56-57
trends, 23-24
Cost-of-living adjustment, 39
Current Population Survey (CPS), 49, 90,
121, 128, 129, 130, 145, 149, 168,
188-189, 200, 209, 210
D
Data collection(s)
administrative records, 6, 69-70, 120-124
for analytical modeling, 70
bootstrapping, 154
confidentiality issues, 6, 121, 122, 123,
124, 129
consumption-savings behaviors, 48
cost of health care, 56
cross-sectional surveys, 71, 187- 189
cross-survey reviews, 95
current organizational structure, 165- 166
deficiencies in, 3, 4, 41, 57, 61, 63-64,
96-97
on demand for older workers, 114-115,
120
designs for, 65-68
on employer benefits, 111- 114
employer data task force, 167- 168
employer-related data, 5-6, 44-45, 96
103, 110-111
evaluation of data quality, 6, 131
exact-matched data files, 6, 121 - 124,
128-129
forum working group on data quality,
169
future directions, 91-95, 110-111
health care reform experience, 62-63
on health/disability status, 55-56
importance of validation, 124- 125, 153
on individual behavior, 4-5
interagency collaboration for, 6-7, 96,
119, 124, 166-167
on labor supply, 49
methods of validation, 125- 129
microlevel comparison of data files, 128
129
for microsimulations, 143- 144, 149- 152
on mortality rates, 52
nonsampling errors, 125
organizational problems, 166
panel survey review group, 168- 169
participants, 165
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INDEX
planning for, 97
on population size/composition, 52-53
priorities, 97
private sector participation, 170- 171
problems with employer surveys, 107
110
projection modeling needs, 2-3, 8-9, 70,
132, 141
recommendations for, 3, 5-6, 7, 119-120,
131, 170, 172
reinterviewing, 125
resource allocation for, 3, 5, 62
role in policy formulation, 2
sampling errors, 154
survey aggregate comparison, 127-128
trade-offs, 68-70
unified budget for, 166
validation needs, 129- 131
wording for survey questions, 125-127
See also Panel surveys
Demand for older workers, 4, 5, 6
case studies for researching, 114-115
company size related to, 43
data sources, 45
determinants of, 43
projection modeling, 8
research needs, 58, 120
significance of, 42
Demographic processes
implications for retirement income
security, 10, 24
implications for Social Security system,
20
labor force participation, 24
research needs, 4
significance of, for projection modeling,
40-41
Demographic variables
cross-sectional surveys, 187- 189
goals for projection modeling, 7
heterogeneity of projection models, 35-36
in microsimulation models, 142
in mortality, 53
in mortality models, 163 n.
population size/composition, 52-53
research needs, 59-60
uncertainty estimates, 158-159
See also Demographic processes
Disability insurance
future prospects, 20
linkage to Social Security benefit design,
27, 35
235
microsimulation models, 161 - 162
trends, 25
Dynamic Simulation of Income Model
(DYNASIM) 2, 134, 140, 143, 145,
146, 149
characteristics, 194, 199-200
documentation, 199-200
limitations, 211-212
operation, 200-207
opportunities for improvement, 162
pension components, 207-209
DYNASIM 2. See Dynamic Simulation of
Income Model
EEarly retirement
data needs, 5
labor market distortions, 32
Economic shocks, 8, 26
Employee Benefits Survey, 5, 44, 97-100,
111, 112, 119-120, 168
Employer behavior
administrative data, 123- 124
analytical models for, 15, 44
benefit offerings, data collection on, 111
114
criteria for policy evaluation, 33-34
current knowledge base, 40, 41, 44-45
data collection task force, 167- 168
data needs, 5-6, 44, 45, 119
data sources, 96- 103, 190- 192
demand for older workers, 43
determinants of, 42
development goals for modeling, 140-142
future directions for data collection, 110
111
microsimulation models, 134- 135
motivation for sponsoring pension plan,
42-43
obstacles to data collection, 107- 110
panel survey design, 115- 119, 120
pension plan design, 42-43
pension plan policies directed at, 28-29
pension sponsorship rate, 21
proj ection modeling, 8, 138 - 139
recommendations for data collection, 5-6,
119-120
recommendations for projection
modeling, 9, 142
research needs, 3-4, 37, 58
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236
significance of, for retirement income
system, 42
tax policy effects, 7-8
Employer Benefits Survey, 190
Employer-provided health insurance
data sources, 102-103
participation, 24
surveys, 192
trends, 24
Employment Cost Trends Survey, 112, 190
Employment Retirement Income Security
Act, 12
Ex post forecasting, 154
Expectations of workers, 72
F
Families
data sources, 48
kinship networks, 54
microsimulation models, 142- 144
panel surveys, 185- 187
research needs, 4
Federal Committee on Statistical
Methodology, 166- 167, 169
Form 5500 database, 5, 44, 100-101, 111,
112-113, 120, 122, 146, 168, 190-
191, 210
401 (k) plans, 21, 46
employer motivation for sponsoring, 43
policy options, 28
H
Health and Human Services, Department of,
166, 167
National Employer Health Insurance
Survey, 44
Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), 5, 7,
168
contributions of, 48, 54, 88
cross-survey reviews, 95
databases, 88-89
design and management of, 170- 171
on expenditures, 94
family asset surveys, 93
future prospects, 91-92
goals, 48, 51, 57, 88, 181
on health care use, 84
on health status, 82
INDEX
incorporating employer survey in, 116-
119
on individual assets/expenditures, 85, 86-
87
linkage with administrative data, 5
matched S SA files, 122- 123
medical cost data, 57
participants, 88, 181
on pension coverage/benefits, 80, 81
recommendations for, 5, 96, 120
retirement-related expectations, 78-79
time horizons, 151 - 152
use of data in microsimulations, 143,
145-146, 151-152
validation needs, 129, 130
Health care reform
modeling techniques, 62
near-term policy options, 30-31
obstacles to assessing proposals, 1, 2, 11,
62-63
Health/disability status
obstacles to data collection, 55
panel survey findings, 72
research needs, 60
significance of, for retirement income
system, 55
trends, 55-56
Health Insurance Portability and
Accountability Act of 1996, 30 n.
Home equity, 23, 47, 48
HRS. See Health and Retirement Survey
I
Immigration/emigration, 25
research needs, 4
significance of, for demographic
modeling, 52
Individual behavior
age profile of workforce, 44
analytical models for, 15
complex models, 51
criteria for policy evaluation, 32-33
current knowledge base, 40, 41
data needs for analytical modeling, 70
labor-leisure choices, 32-33, 49-51
microsimulation models, 142- 144, 147,
148-149
panel surveys, 51, 70-71, 115- 119
pension plan participation, 13, 21, 25
projection modeling, 139-140
OCR for page 237
INDEX
projection modeling goals, 8
reduced-form models, 50
research needs, 3-4, 37, 48, 59, 70
significance of, for projection modeling,
39-40
structural models, 50-51
tax policy effects, 7-8
time horizon for policy effects, 36
time horizon for study of, 70
See also Consumption; Savings behavior
Individual Retirement Accounts, 2, 46
incentives to increase contributions to,
13, 26, 29
policy issues, 13
substitutability of contributions, 47
Inflation indexation, 19, 39-40
Inherited assets, 30
Interagency Forum on Aging-Related
Statistics, 7, 167, 169
Intergenerational transfers, 32
models for, 197- 198
Internal Revenue Service, 121
L
Labor, Department of, 2, 3, 8, 141, 152, 167
recommendations for, 5, 119, 142
Labor supply. See Demand for older
workers; Workforce participation
Life expectancy, 24
Long-range forecasting, 36-37
behavioral responses, 39-40
ex post, 154
microsimulation models for, 142
Long-term care, 184
individual spending for, 30
Longitudinal Research Database, 191 - 192
Longitudinal Study of Aging, 181
M
Macroeconomic-Demographic Model, 133, 196
Macroeconomics
microsimulation inputs for modeling, 148
outcomes of policies affecting employers,
33-34
policy, 12
projection models, 15, 135
Managed care, 25
237
Marital status
economic status of elderly and, 53-54
as mortality variable, 53
research needs, 4, 54
Medicaid, 2, 12
exact-matched records, 124
health care spending, 23-24
Medical Expenditure Panel Survey, 189
Medical savings accounts, 26
Medicare, 2, 12, 189
exact-matched records, 124
future prospects, 20
goals for projection modeling, 7
health care spending, 23-24
individual retirement decisions and, 50
policy options, 31
record quality, 128
Medicare Current Beneficiary Survey, 181-
182
Micro simulation s
advantages, 134
aggregate projections, 148
aging techniques, 134
applications, 142
available systems, 142- 143
behavioral interactions in, 147
current systems, 138-140, 193-196
data sources, 134, 143, 149-152
design considerations for new systems,
152
development goals for new systems, 143-
149
dynamic qualities, 145
employer-based, 8, 134-135, 146
health care coverage in, 147
individual-level, 8
interaction with other models, 147- 149
methodology, 134
projection capabilities, 145-147
recommendations for, 9, 153
role of, 15
savings behavior in, 146- 147
SSA disability insurance modeling, 161-
162
types of, 134
Middle-aged people, 5
consumption-savings behavior, 46
data collection needs, 96
panel survey data, 72-88
personal savings trends, 47
OCR for page 238
238
Model for Simulating Life Histories of the
Elderly, 195- 196
Mortality
data from administrative records, 121
demographic variables, 53
demographic variables in models of,
163n.
microsimulation models, 145
projection modeling, 52-53, 156-157, 163
research needs, 4
significance of, for demographic
modeling, 52
socioeconomic variables, 53
SSA projections, 156-157, 163
uncertainty in projections of, 157
N
National Center for Health Statistics, 167
National Death Index, 124
National Employer Health Insurance Survey
(NEHIS), 102, 111, 113-114, 168,
192
National Income and Product Accounts
(NIPA), 128
National Institute on Aging, 2, 10, 167, 168-
169
recommendations for, 5
National Long-Term Care Survey, 184
National Longitudinal Survey of Mature
Women, 79, 80, 81, 82, 85, 87, 92,
182
National Longitudinal Survey of Older Men,
182
National Longitudinal Survey of Young
Men, 72, 183
National Longitudinal Survey of Young
Women, 72, 81, 82, 84, 86, 87, 92,
94, 183
National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, 81,
84, 86, 87, 92, 96, 169, 183-184
National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor
Market Experience (NLS), 72, 92, 93-
94, 95, 168-169
National Medical Expenditure Survey, 56,
57, 62
National Medicare Expenditure Survey, 189
National Survey of Families and
Households, 54, 185- 186
New Beneficiary Followup, 185
New Beneficiary Survey, 185
INDEX
o
Office of Management and Budget, 166, 167
Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability
Insurance, 20
Outcome criteria, 31-34
p
Panel Study of Income Dynamics (PSID),
88, 93-94, 145, 150, 169, 186
Panel surveys
advantages, 70-71
asset valuation, 93
for behavioral modeling, 51
for cohorts of individuals, 180- 185
consumption/savings behaviors, 92-94
cost of health care, 56-57
cross-survey reviews, 95, 96
employee-employer study, 115- 119
on employer behavior, 5, 120
employer behavior data, 45
expense, 71
of families and households, 185- 187
features/findings of, 72-89
future prospects, 91-92
health/disability status, 55-56
for microsimulations, 151 - 152
nonsampling errors in, 125
recommendations for, 5, 96
research needs, 97
review group, 168- 169
role of, 2
vs. cross-sectional surveys, 71
Pension and Retirement Income Simulation
Model (PRISM), 134, 140, 143, 145,
146, 149
characteristics, 195, 199-200
documentation, 199-200
limitations, 211-212
operation, 200-207
opportunities for improvement, 162
pension components, 209-210
Pension and Welfare Benefits Administration
(PWBA), 10, 110, 112-113, 162, 167
Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation
(PBGC), 2, 10, 32, 36, 110, 138-139
Pension Insurance Management System
(PIMS), 138, 139, 194
Pension plans
age at application for benefits, 49
OCR for page 239
INDEX
benefit design in microsimulation
models, 146
current policy concerns, 1
data needs, 119-120
data sources, 44-45, 89-90, 97-101, 102,
122-123, 188-192
defined contribution plans, 21-22
definition of coverage, 17
distribution of returns, 41
early withdrawal, 28
employer motivation for sponsoring, 42-
43
future prospects, 21
interaction with other retirement
programs, 35, 142
lump-sum payments, 22
mandatory withdrawal, 28
near-term policy options, 27-29
need for benefit design surveys, 111 - 114
outcome criteria for policy evaluation, 32
panel survey findings, 72
participation, 13, 19, 20-21
policy issues, 13
prefunding restrictions, 33
projection modeling, 207-210
Social Security linkages, 29
sponsorship rate, 21
tax policy, 28-29
trends, 20-22
types of, 21-22
PIMS. See Pension Insurance Management
System
Population-based models. See Cell-based
models
Population growth
projection modeling, 156- 157
research needs, 4
Poverty rate
as outcome criteria for policy evaluation,
31
risk for elderly, 54
significance of, l9n.
trends, 18-19
PRISM. See Pension and Retirement Income
Simulation Model
Private sector, 170-172
Privatization of social security
goals, 27
obstacles to modeling, 63-64
policy issues, 13- 14
Productivity, 41, 102
age-related data, 114
239
Projection modeling
analytical modeling and, 15, 57, 132
application of validation techniques in,
155-156
best professional judgment for, 155-156
challenges to, 34-38
complex behavioral model, 51
in Congressional Budget Office, 160-162
cost of health care, 56
current systems, 138- 140
data needs for, 2-3, 8-9, 57, 61, 70, 141
deficiencies of, 132
development costs, 137
development goals, 140
differential risk in, 36
distributional analysis, 162- 163, 164
documentation for, 137- 138
of employer behaviors, 8, 138- 139, 140
142
ex post forecasting, 154
for executive branch, 161
goals for, 7-9
health care system, 30
heterogeneity of, 34-35
importance of validation for, 153
of individual behaviors, 37, 139-140
interagency collaboration for, 169-170
large-scale individual-level
microsimulation, 8, 9
limitations of, 61
long-range forecasting, 36-37
long-term goals, 8
methods of validation for, 153-155
mix of employer types, 44
mortality rate in, 52-53, 156-157, 163
near-term strategies, 159- 160
opportunities to improve existing models,
162-163
performance evaluation criteria, 135- 138
policy outcome evaluation, 34
private sector participation, 170, 171-172
probabilistic methods, 158, 164
program interaction effects, 34-35, 142
recommendations for, 9, 142, 159, 163
164, 172
role of, 2, 15, 132
savings-consumption behavior in, 49
sensitivity analysis, 154- 155, 156, 159
significance of behavioral variables for,
39-40
significance of demographic process
variables for, 40-41
OCR for page 240
240
SSA models, 161-164
SSA validation techniques, 156-159
types of, 15, 133-135
uncertainty effects, 8, 38, 154-155
validation of databases for, 124, 153
Public Pension Coordinating Council, 103,
111
Public policy
cost-benefit analysis, 15- 16
current concerns, 1 -2, 12- 14
current government agency
responsibility, 12, 165- 166
data and research needs, 57-60, 61-62
identifying uncertainty measures for, 8,
38, 155
near-term modeling strategies for, 159-160
near-term options, 25-26
options for health care, 30-31
options for influencing personal savings,
29-30
options for pension plans, 27-29
options for Social Security, 26-27
outcome evaluation for, 31-34
pension regulation issues, 13
personal saving issues, 13, 23
policy question formulation, 159
program interactions, 34-35
research needs, 3-4, 11
Social Security system issues, 13-14
structural models for, 51
tools for, 2
R
Reduced-form models, 50
Regulatory environment
pension funds, 13
retirement security issues, 12
Research
current organizational structure for, 165-
166
need for, 3-4, 41
priorities, 57-60
role of, 2
Retirement Health Survey, 185
Retirement History Survey, 49, 72, 79, 81,
84, 86, 87, 145, 185
Retirement income
assessment of security of, 11-12
current government policymaking
structure, 12
INDEX
current policy concerns, 1 -2, 10, 12- 14
current status, 17- 19
determinants of security, 39
future challenges, 17, 19-20, 25
implications of health care cost trends,
23-24
near-term policy options, 25-26
obstacles to modeling, 3
outcome criteria for policy evaluation,
31-34
panel surveys, 72-89
personal savings for, 23
policy areas affecting, 12
sources of, 12
threats to, 12
trends, 17
S
Savings behavior
bequest motives, 46
criteria for policy evaluation, 32, 33
current practice, 23
decision-making models, 46
investment vehicles, 46
life-cycle model, 46
microsimulation modeling, 146- 147
near-term policy options, 29-30
panel survey data, 72, 92, 93, 94
policy issues, 23
precautionary motives, 46
projection modeling, 49
proposals to stimulate, 26
rate of return issues, 47-48
research needs, 4, 46-47, 48, 58-59
significance of, for policymaking, 26
tax incentives, 13
trends, 47
Schieber and Shoven Model, 196
Sensitivity analysis, 154- 155, 156, 159, 164
Small businesses
incentives for pension plan development,
26
obstacles to pension plan development in,
42-43
pension regulation, 13
Social Security Administration (SSA), 2, 10,
152
actuarial proj ections, 196- 197
administrative records, 121- 123, 163
model validation in, 156-159
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INDEX
projection modeling, 161-163, 164, 196-
197
recommendations for, 164
research access to models, 163, 164
Social Security system, 12
actuarial balance, 32
actuarial projections, 52, 134, 156
administrative costs, 34
benefit formula, 27n.
current policy concerns, 1, 10, 13-14, 20
current status, 19
disability insurance linkage, 27, 35
exact-matched data files, 121- 123, 124,
129, 149-150
future prospects, 20, 25
goals for projection modeling, 7
indexation, 19, 39-40
individual retirement decisions and, 50
interaction with other retirement
programs, 35, 142
leakage, 34
near-term policy options, 26-27
opting out, 29
outcome criteria for policy evaluation, 32
pension plan design linked to, 29
privatization, 13-14, 27, 63-64
projection models, 139
transgenerational transfers, 32
worker confidence in, 27
See also Social Security Administration
Socioeconomic status
current retiree population, 19
as mortality variable, 53
Solvency and Individual Retirement model,
139
Solvency and Individual Return model, 196
SSASIM, 139, 157-158, 197
Statistics Canada, 116
Stochastic simulations, 157- 159
Structural models, 50-51
Supplemental Security Income, 12
Survey of Consumer Finances (SCF), 89, 91,
95, 128, 169, 189
Survey of Income and Program Participation
(SIPP), 89-90, 91, 95, 121, 122-123,
128, 129, 130, 169
design and goals, 186- 187
future prospects, 187
for microsimulations, 150- 151
pension data, 168
Survey of Private Pension Benefit Amounts,
121-122
241
T
Tax policy
goals for projection modeling, 7-8
intervention for Social Security system,
26-27
pension plan options, 28-29
personal savings incentives, 13
retirement security issues, 12
transgenerational equity, 32
Technology, health care, 56
TIAA-CREF, 2, 10
Time-series models, 15, 133
Treasury Individual Income Tax Simulation
Model (OTA Model), 195
U
Uncertainty effects
mortality projections, 53, 157
policymakers understanding/acceptance
of, 8, 38, 155
recommendations for modeling, 159
in SSA projections, 157-159, 164
stochastic methods for estimating, 157- 159
trade-offs in data collection, 68
validation for projection models to
minimize, 154- 155
Unionized workers
mandatory retirement age, 43
pension plan offerings for, 42
U.S. Establishment and Enterprise Microdata
(USEEM) File, 102- 103
W
Window plans, 50, 81, 101
Women
labor force participation, 24
poverty risk for elderly, 53-54
Worker-Establishment Characteristics
Database, 191 - 192
Workforce participation
company size and, trends in, 44
data sources, 49, 51, 90
demographic trends, 24
disability rate and, 24-25
labor market distortions in policy, 32
life-cycle patterns, 49-50
microsimulation models, 134, 145, 148
panel surveys, 72
OCR for page 242
Representative terms from entire chapter:
pension plan
