3
The Impact of Military Downsizing

Historically, the military has been an important source of trained professionals for commercial aviation, especially pilots. Any attempt to assess training issues in the industry, therefore, requires an understanding of how the military influences the supply of aviation specialists.

Since at least the late 1980s, the military services have been undergoing a fundamental reshaping, restructuring, and drawing down of force size. These efforts have reduced the inventory of officers and enlisted personnel in aviation-related occupations in the services and have lowered the numbers of individuals being recruited into these specialties. Such reductions will affect the ability of the civilian air carriers to draw on the military for trained aviation personnel. The major air carriers, faced with a dwindling supply of trained military pilots and mechanics, will have to meet their future hiring needs by relying to a greater extent than they presently do on civilian sources of supply. (Smaller air carriers already draw many pilots from civilian ranks.)

As a major training ground for pilots and aviation maintenance technicians, the military's aviation-related workforce is not noticeably more diverse than the civilian aviation workforce. Minorities and women are better represented in military aviation specialties than they used to be, but (with the exception of minority male mechanics) their presence in these jobs is small, still significantly lagging their representation in the overall population. Because the proportion of minority and women pilots in particular is very low, the military drawdown will not have much effect on the diversity of the pool of trained pilots available to the air carriers. The drawdown does, however, mean that opportunities are shrinking



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--> 3 The Impact of Military Downsizing Historically, the military has been an important source of trained professionals for commercial aviation, especially pilots. Any attempt to assess training issues in the industry, therefore, requires an understanding of how the military influences the supply of aviation specialists. Since at least the late 1980s, the military services have been undergoing a fundamental reshaping, restructuring, and drawing down of force size. These efforts have reduced the inventory of officers and enlisted personnel in aviation-related occupations in the services and have lowered the numbers of individuals being recruited into these specialties. Such reductions will affect the ability of the civilian air carriers to draw on the military for trained aviation personnel. The major air carriers, faced with a dwindling supply of trained military pilots and mechanics, will have to meet their future hiring needs by relying to a greater extent than they presently do on civilian sources of supply. (Smaller air carriers already draw many pilots from civilian ranks.) As a major training ground for pilots and aviation maintenance technicians, the military's aviation-related workforce is not noticeably more diverse than the civilian aviation workforce. Minorities and women are better represented in military aviation specialties than they used to be, but (with the exception of minority male mechanics) their presence in these jobs is small, still significantly lagging their representation in the overall population. Because the proportion of minority and women pilots in particular is very low, the military drawdown will not have much effect on the diversity of the pool of trained pilots available to the air carriers. The drawdown does, however, mean that opportunities are shrinking

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--> for minorities and women, as well as for white men, to receive aviation training by joining the armed forces. The Military As A Supplier Of Pilots And Technicians Several studies have highlighted the importance of the military as a source of pilots for the commercial air carriers (Blue Ribbon Panel, 1993:31-33; Levy, 1995:25, 29; Thie et al., 1994:34-37, 1995:9). Historically, the major carriers have relied on the military for about 75 percent of their pilots (Levy, 1995:22). A look beyond the major carriers and a focus on recent years, however, reveals a more complicated picture. Table 3-1 shows the number of pilots hired by U.S. airlines from 1985 through 1994 (except for two years for which data are missing) and the percentage of these new hires who had military backgrounds. As the table indicates, for the largest airlines (those designated global/major by FAPA), the share of new hires with military backgrounds has been above 75 percent in the 1990s. In 1987 and 1988, however, it was below 70 percent, and in 1985 it was below 50 percent. Overall, for the years represented in the table, an average of 68 percent of new hires had military backgrounds. For the national carriers, however, the overall share with military backgrounds was only 40 percent, and for the turbojets and turboprops, the figures are even lower. The turboprops averaged fewer than 20 percent of pilots with military experience during the period represented in the table. Thus the dominance of pilots with military background has been a feature only of the largest airlines, and even for them, it has varied from year to year. An examination of the variation in year-to-year hiring statistics reveals an interesting pattern. Figure 3-1 shows, for the global/major airlines, the percentage of pilots with military backgrounds plotted against the number of pilots hired in that year. Figure 3-2 shows the same plot for the national airlines. In both cases, there is a clear inverse pattern. When the number of pilots hired is low, the percentage with military backgrounds is high. Conversely, when the number of pilots hired is high, the percentage with military backgrounds is lower. This pattern holds for both the global/major airlines and the national airlines. A comparison of the two figures reveals that the nationals generally hire fewer pilots, but that, even when the two groups are hiring about the same number of pilots, the percentage with military backgrounds is higher for the global/majors than for the nationals. Although these graphs may not be conclusive, when combined with anecdotal evidence, they are suggestive of a couple of airline hiring patterns. The first pattern is that airlines seem to prefer pilots with military backgrounds. When hiring relatively few pilots, airlines will hire from military ranks. When airline hiring needs are larger, however, they seem quite willing to reach into the civilian ranks to fill their pilot needs. The second apparent pattern is that pilots would generally prefer working for larger airlines than for smaller airlines. As result,

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--> TABLE 3-1 Pilot New Hires, Selected Years Carrier Typea 1985 1987 1988 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 Number hired Global/major 4,544 3,958 3,328 3,304 2,404 1,836 491 1,041 National 1,306 1,319 1,908 1,059 1,001 405 764 1,438 Turbojet 1,990 1,760 1,447 416 599 385 812 1,128 Turboprop 3,046 4,073 3,114 2,998 1,971 1,702 1,189 1,656 Total 10,886 11,110 9,797 7,777 5,975 4,328 3,256 5,263 Percentage with military background Global/major 47 66 69 76 80 85 93 82 National 33 40 38 38 46 58 48 34 Turbojet 24 39 41 39 45 51 25 64 Turboprop 16 17 18 22 14 25 13 22 a Data for 1986 and 1989 are incomplete and are not included. For the period 1985 to 1991, the following air carrier categories were used by FAPA: major, national, jet, and regional. For purposes of this table, data for those years are included, respectively, in the following categories: global/major, national, turbojet, and turboprop. Pilots with military backgrounds may also have civilian experience. FAPA relies on the following air carrier designations and descriptions: global carriers have annual revenues of at least $5 billion, including at least $1 billion from international operations; major carriers have at least $1 billion in revenue; national carriers have annual revenues of less than $1 billion per year but at least $100 million; turbojet (scheduled) carriers have annual revenues of less than $100 million and fly primarily jet airplanes; turboprop (scheduled) passenger carriers have annual revenues of less than $100 million and fly primarily turboprop planes. SOURCE: Data provided by FAPA.

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--> FIGURE 3-1 Number of pilots hired by global/major airlines and percentage with military background. SOURCE: Data provided by FAPA. FIGURE 3-2 Number of pilots hired by national airlines and percentage with military background. SOURCE: Data provided by FAPA.

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--> larger airlines are able to hire a higher percentage of military pilots than are smaller airlines. There is less information about the military as a source of civilian aircraft maintenance personnel than there is about pilots, and the information that exists is somewhat contradictory. The FAA's Pilot and Aviation Maintenance Technician Blue Ribbon Panel (Blue Ribbon Panel, 1993:19) found that the military supplied a much lower percentage of technicians than pilots to the air carriers—an average of 23 percent of major carriers' new hires, based on results from a 1992 survey. FAPA contends that "[t]he military services traditionally supply a strong percentage of maintenance technicians to civilian aviation" and that the military services "provide the majority of skilled avionics technicians to commercial aviation" (FAPA, 1994:11, emphasis in original). To the extent that civilian training paths already provide a higher proportion of aviation maintenance technicians than they do pilots, then civilian aviation is less likely to be affected by reductions in the supply of technicians receiving military training. The military drawdown is not reducing all parts of the military equally. This can be seen by looking in more detail at the aviation-related occupations in the armed services. The principal military aviation occupations for pilots are found in the officer corps and are included under tactical operations (pilots and crews and operations staff officers). For aviation maintenance technicians, some of the military occupations are found in the officer corps under engineering and maintenance (design, development, production, and maintenance engineering officers), and some are found among enlisted personnel who work in electrical and mechanical repair (maintenance and repair of electrical, mechanical, hydraulic, and pneumatic equipment) (U.S. Department of Defense, 1994). For officers, the specific occupational categories of interest are: fixed-wing fighter and bomber pilots (pilots of various types of fighter, attack, and bomber aircraft); other fixed-wing pilots (non-fighter and bomber fixed-wing pilots such as those engaged in transport, supply, and reconnaissance); helicopter pilots; aircraft crews (navigators and other officer aircraft crew personnel); and aviation maintenance officers. For enlisted personnel, the specific category of interest is aircraft repair and maintenance (aircraft engines, electrical systems, structural components and surfaces, and launch equipment). Table 3-2 summarizes the number of people in these major categories in 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1994. The military drawdown can be seen in the table. The number of officers in 1994 was 17 percent lower than in 1990 and 20 percent

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--> TABLE 3-2 Active-Duty Personnel in Aviation-Related Occupations, All Services, Selected Years Occupation 1980 1985 1990 1994 1990-1994 Percent Change 1985-1994 Percent Change 1980 Share 1994 Share All officers 278,014 309,137 296,886 245,841 -17 -20 100 100 Tactical operations 86,722 116,037 121,110 95,707 -21 -18 31.2 38.9 Fixed-wing pilots 25,597 26,862 24,591 21,476 -13 -20 9.2 8.7 Army 597 549 436 413 -5 -25 0.2 0.2 Navy 7,394 6,945 6,563 4,966 -24 -28 2.7 2.0 Air Force 16,132 17,585 16,147 14,634 -9 -17 5.8 6.0 Marines 1,474 1,783 1,445 1,463 1 -18 0.5 0.6 Helicopter pilots 12,629 20,276 18,690 16,410 -12 -19 4.5 6.7 Aircraft crews 11,966 12,525 12,181 10,758 -12 -14 4.3 4.4 Engineering and maintenance 44,574 48,325 39,548 32,383 -18 -33 16.0 13.2 Aviation maintenance 8,028 8,069 7,388 6,412 -13 -21 2.9 2.6 Other occupations 146,718 144,775 136,228 117,751 -14 -19 52.8 47.9 Enlisted personnel 1,758,658 1,828,282 1,732,414 1,350,681 -22 -26 100 100 Electrical/mechanical repair 348,461 368,245 347,765 269,820 -22 -27 19.8 20.0 Aircraft and aircraft related 146,290 151,640 135,610 108,699 -20 -28 8.3 8.0 Other occupations 1,410,197 1,460,037 1,384,649 1,080,861 -22 -26 80.2 80.0 NOTE: Data shown are for the end of the defense fiscal year (September). Data for occupational categories correspond to the following occupational codes: tactical operations, 2; fixed-wing pilots, 2A, 2B; helicopter pilots, 2C; aircraft crews, 2D; engineering and maintenance, 4; aviation maintenance, 4D; aviation maintenance (enlisted only), 600, 601, 602, and 603 (U.S. Department of Defense, 1994). SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S. Department of Defense.

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--> lower than in 1985. Similarly, the number of enlisted personnel was 22 percent lower than in 1990 and 26 percent lower than in 1985. Fixed-wing pilots were down 13 percent between 1990 and 1994 and 20 percent between 1985 and 1994. Fixed-wing pilots made up a smaller share of the officer corps (8.7 percent) in 1994 than they did in 1980 (9.2 percent). Helicopter pilots are listed in the table, but there is no strong evidence that they are a major source of pilots for the airlines. Changes in the numbers of pilots are not new phenomena in the military. Pilot inventory and requirements have fluctuated significantly over the past 40 years, both up and down (Thie et al., 1995:3). For the period of 1950 to 1990, the Air Force pilot inventory escalated from about 24,000 in 1950 to almost 55,000 in 1957, then gradually but steadily declined to a little over 16,000 in 1990. It seems clear that, at least for Air Force pilots, both inventory and requirements have been characterized by a steady, overall decrease, with some slight intermittent increases not affecting the overall downward trend from the late 1960s to the present time. As seen in Table 3-2, at the end of the defense fiscal year 1994, Air Force pilot inventory stood at 14,634. Current projections of Air Force requirements (Thie et al., 1995:9-13) are for active-duty pilot levels of 13,700 per year through the year 2002. Table 3-2 shows that the pool of military maintenance personnel is also shrinking. For the period 1985-1994 the number of aviation maintenance officers declined at about the same rate as fixed-wing pilots, and enlisted aviation maintenance personnel have seen their ranks diminish more rapidly. The military has undertaken several initiatives to prepare military mechanics for transition to civilian jobs. For example, the FAA and the Department of Defense have developed a joint strategy aimed at converting military maintenance courses into credit for an airframe and power plant mechanic's license, thereby enabling military aircraft maintenance technicians to qualify for civilian aviation positions upon separation or retirement (Federal Aviation Administration, 1994). Another way of looking at the effects of the military drawdown on the supply of trained aviation personnel is to look at what is happening to the annual intake into the military "pipeline." Table 3-3 shows the number of military personnel in their first year of service in selected occupational categories from 1980 to 1995. First year pilots (including officers assigned to pilot training classes) for all services numbered 2,880 in 1980. That number ranged from roughly 3,500 to 3,900 throughout the 1980s, then began to fall sharply. In 1995 it stood at 1,494, or less than 40 percent of the total from 10 years earlier. The number of first year maintenance officers was also lower in 1995 than in 1980, but with considerable fluctuations from year to year. The number of first year enlisted aviation maintenance personnel has also varied greatly, but overall the 1990s have seen significantly fewer first year enlisted maintenance personnel than the 1980s. The peak

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--> TABLE 3-3 Active-Duty Personnel in Aviation-Related Occupations, First Year of Duty, All Services, 1980-1995 Occupation 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 Officers               Pilots 2,880 3,666 3,485 3,518 3,502 3,836 3,612 Fixed-wing pilots               Fighter/Bomber 7 2 6 9 3 13 7 Other 58 216 78 28 4 10 29 Helicopter pilots 332 564 573 487 512 526 416 Pilot training 2,483 2,884 2,828 2,994 2,983 3,287 3,160 Aviation maintenance officers 343 303 350 376 435 259 237 Enlisted aviation maintenance personnel 9,886 12,711 9,004 5,851 7,577 10,057 10,060 Aircraft, general 4,618 6,922 3,995 2,747 3,510 5,366 5,528 Aircraft engines 1,788 2,073 1,275 1,177 1,336 1,529 1,694 Aircraft accessories 2,672 2,897 2,909 1,379 2,158 2,415 2,067 Aircraft structures 808 819 825 548 573 747 771 NOTE: Data shown are for the end of the defense fiscal year (September). Data for occupational categories correspond to the following occupational codes and designations: pilots (fixed wing, 2A and 2B; helicopter, 2C; pilot training, 9B/902); aviation maintenance officers (4D); maintenance enlisted personnel (600, 601, 602, 603) (U.S. Department of Defense, 1994). intake for that category was 12,711 in 1981, dropping erratically from that point to a total of 3,218 in 1995. Reductions in the numbers of pilots and enlisted maintenance personnel being trained in the military will eventually translate into fewer trained personnel who will be available to the civilian air carriers. Projections of the size of pilot training classes and military separations illustrate this point. The Air Force, for example, expects smaller undergraduate pilot training classes for the foreseeable future. Whereas such classes averaged 2,200 from 1971 to 1980 and 1,850 from 1981 to 1990, they were targeted at 500 for fiscal years 1994 and 1995 and 800 for fiscal years 1996 and 1997 (Levy, 1995:36). Today's relatively small classes will translate into smaller numbers of military pilots becoming available to the civilian sector after the turn of the century.1 Military pilot separations from the services (Air Force, Navy, and Marines) had been running over 3,000 per year from 1990 to 1992 (Levy, 1995:31), providing a substantial pool of pilot candidates for the civilian air carriers. Projections 1   Air Force pilots can separate from the military and elect to fly for the airlines after completing their active-duty service obligation, generally after 10 years of service (Levy, 1995:30,36).

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--> 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 3,268 3,205 3,518 3,383 2,344 2,095 2,123 1,252 1,494 15 3 22 8 3 4 1 0 18 19 20 57 47 23 35 7 6 5 343 340 391 399 327 350 708 322 260 2,891 2,842 3,048 2,929 1,991 1,706 1,407 924 1,211 198 256 248 91 191 164 212 275 244 7,939 6,949 5,630 3,714 4,153 3,567 3,516 4,519 3,218 3,960 2,903 2,813 1,673 1,875 1,604 1,975 2,261 1,696 1,141 964 773 431 727 641 352 626 383 2,003 2,199 1,363 776 963 927 833 1,238 792 835 883 681 834 588 395 356 394 347   SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S. Department of Defense. of future pilot losses show military pilot separations from the services decreasing to about 1,700 annually between 1995 and 1999, with a further decline to 1,500 annually by 2002 (Levy, 1995:31). In other words, the number of military-trained pilots who become civilians and perhaps join the air carrier applicant pool after the turn of the century will be half of what it was as recently as 1992. The Military Drawdown: Implications For Minorities And Women A special focus of this report is access to civilian aviation careers by minorities and women. As we have seen, the military is a key source of trained aviation professionals. Equally important, it has been in the forefront of efforts to recruit and train minorities and women in a broad range of occupations, including aviation-related ones. (For a detailed discussion of women in the military, see Binkin, 1993; Binkin and Bach, 1977; and Holm, 1992. For a detailed discussion of blacks in the military, see Binkin, 1993; Binkin and Eitelberg, 1982.) One concern about military downsizing, therefore, is that it will reduce training opportunities for those underrepresented groups and restrict the diversity of the applicant

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--> pool for air carrier jobs. The impact of military downsizing on the diversity of the civilian applicant pool depends only in part on the size of the overall reduction in military trainees. It also depends on how many minorities and women have been receiving military training and how the drawdown affects these numbers. Minorities in the Military Since the end of conscription in the 1970s, the United States has created a military of ''unparalleled diversity" (Binkin, 1993:1). Black participation in the military grew especially rapidly during that period. The proportion of blacks in the armed forces increased from 10 percent in the early 1970s to 20 percent by the beginning of the 1990s. In the Army, the growth was more dramatic, from 14 percent to 30 percent in the enlisted ranks (Binkin, 1993). This growth occurred against a historical backdrop of racial segregation and discrimination. Racial segregation of the military was formally ended in 1948 but persisted in policy and practice through the Korean War (Binkin and Eitelberg, 1982:26-30). Whereas the overall participation rates of minorities, especially of black Americans, have been high, at least in the enlisted ranks, since the end of conscription and the transition to the all-volunteer force (Binkin and Eitelberg, 1982:Table 3-1), the representation of minorities is quite uneven across occupational specializations in both the enlisted and officer ranks (Binkin, 1993:78-79; U.S. President, 1995:43). Although there is evidence reflecting progress over time, there has also been a general recognition by the defense establishment that more needs to be done to enhance opportunities for minorities, especially in the officer corps (U.S. President, 1995:41). To achieve greater opportunities and participation by minorities, the services have implemented a range of initiatives and programs. For example, the Army has developed the Enhanced Skills Program at historically black colleges and universities (combining mentoring and tutoring for students in academic trouble); the Army Preparatory School (preparing high school graduates for West Point with an extra year of academic study); and the Green to Gold Program (encouraging noncommissioned officers with at least two years of college to use the Montgomery G.I. Bill and Reserve Officer Training Corps (ROTC) scholarships to finish college and join the officer corps) (Kitfield, 1995:26). A key effort by the Navy and the Marine Corps has been the 12/12/5 Initiative, designed to ensure that officer and enlisted ranks across all ratings and specializations reflect the racial and ethnic diversity expected in the United States by the year 2000—12 percent black, 12 percent Hispanic, and 5 percent Asian-American/Pacific Islander (Kitfield, 1995:26; U.S. President, 1995:41). The Air Force, in cooperation with Delaware State College, a historically black college, has recently launched a summer flight training program targeting selected ROTC students from historically black colleges and universities around the country. This program,

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--> initiated in June 1996, is designed to give participating students the required skills to qualify for a private pilot's license and to enhance their chances of being selected for an Air Force pilot training slot upon college graduation. Minorities are not as well represented in aviation-related military occupations as they are in the respective overall totals of either officers or enlisted personnel. The proportion of pilots who are black or Hispanic is especially small (Table 3-4). (We focus on blacks and Hispanics because we cannot separate other minorities from those whose ethnic status is unknown.)2 In 1994, 10.1 percent of active-duty officers were black or Hispanic, but only 7.1 percent of all tactical officers and 3.0 percent of fixed-wing pilots were from these groups. In the enlisted ranks, 27.7 percent of all personnel and 21.7 percent of active-duty electrical/mechanical repair personnel were black or Hispanic, compared with only 17.9 percent of aircraft repairers. Table 3-5 shows the numbers of minorities in the military in selected occupations for 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1994 and the percentage share of blacks and Hispanics in each occupation in these same years. Minority shares increased across the board between 1980 and 1994 (though the changes in the enlisted ranks were small). The percentage of blacks and Hispanics in each aviation-related occupation in 1994 was higher than or the same as it was in 1990, even though downsizing had reduced overall numbers.3 The number of minority fixed-wing pilots and enlisted aircraft maintenance personnel dropped (slightly for the former but quite substantially for the latter). There were actually more black and Hispanic officers in the aircraft crew and helicopter pilot specialties in 1994 than in 1990. Helicopter pilots have traditionally not been hired in large numbers by the civilian airlines, although this could change as the number of ex-military pilots trained in fixed-wing aircraft declines. Women in the Military Women have a special history and experience in the military that is distinct from that of minorities (Binkin and Bach, 1977; Binkin and Eitelberg, 1982; Binkin, 1993; Holm, 1992). Until recently they were specifically excluded from 2   We note that the overall conclusions in this paragraph would have been the same, although the absolute numbers would have been larger, if we had assumed that the "unknown" number was negligible and made our calculations including the "other minority/ethnic status unknown" group in the minority totals. 3   Committee members were concerned that minorities might leave the service at disproportionately high rates, but data on individuals separating from the military provided by the Defense Manpower Data Center indicate this is not the case. Statistics for 1980, 1985, 1990, and 1994 show that minorities in aviation-related military occupations left the service at rates generally proportional to their representation in the various aviation occupational inventories.

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-->     Shares Other Minority/ Ethnic Status Unknown Total Female Total Black and Hispanic Black Hispanic Other Minority/ Ethnic Status Unknown Total Female 9,149 31,831 10.1 7.4 2.6 3.7 12.9 2,603 2,364 7.1 4.9 2.2 2.7 2.5 357 315 3.0 1.6 1.4 1.7 1.5 11 7 6.5 4.8 1.7 2.7 1.7 53 71 3.5 1.5 2.0 1.1 1.4 269 237 2.7 1.6 1.1 1.8 1.6 24 0 3.4 1.5 1.9 1.6 0.0 411 442 5.6 3.4 2.3 2.5 2.7 293 177 5.6 3.1 2.5 2.7 1.6 1,542 1,430 9.8 7.3 2.5 3.3 3.0 1,363 3,147 12.7 10.1 2.6 4.2 9.7 242 590 8.5 6.4 2.1 3.8 9.2 5,183 26,320 11.7 8.8 2.9 4.4 22.4 67,088 163,196 27.7 21.7 6.0 5.0 12.1 14,285 13,810 21.7 16.1 5.6 5.3 5.1 5,058 5,307 17.9 12.5 5.3 4.7 4.9 52,803 149,386 29.1 23.1 6.1 4.9 13.8 4D; aviation maintenance (enlisted only), 600, 601, 602, and 603 (U.S. Department of Defense, 1994). SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S. Department of Defense. engaged in combat missions. That legislation also circumscribed career opportunities since it provided that women could not serve in command positions or hold a permanent grade above lieutenant colonel (or commander in the Navy). The same act authorized the Army to establish the types of military duty to which women could be assigned. The services for some time interpreted and applied term combat in ways that placed many military occupations off-limits to women (Binkin, 1993:11; Binkin and Bach, 1977:22). Not until the adoption of the all-volunteer force in 1973 did the services begin to interpret combat in less restrictive terms (Binkin, 1993:11). The Air Force eventually began allowing women to fly tanker, surveillance, and cargo aircraft (Binkin, 1993:11). In the 1970s women also gained the opportunity for

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--> TABLE 3-5 Active-Duty Personnel in Aviation-Related Occupations, All Services, By Sex and Minority Status, Selected Years           Shares Category 1980 1985 1990 1994 1980 1985 1990 1994 All officers 278,014 309,137 296,886 245,841         Female 21,467 30,321 34,241 31,831 7.7 9.8 11.5 12.9 Black and Hispanic 17,045 24,550 27,148 24,739 6.1 7.9 9.1 10.1 Tactical operations 86,722 116,037 121,110 95,707         Female 661 1,992 2,461 2,364 0.8 1.7 2.0 2.5 Black and Hispanic 3,691 7,221 7.901 6,802 4.3 6.2 6.5 7.1 Fixed-wing pilot 25,597 26,862 24,591 21,476         Female 71 329 372 315 0.3 1.2 1.5 1.5 Black and Hispanic 431 623 661 644 1.7 2.3 2.7 3.0 Helicopter pilot 12,629 20,276 18,690 16,410         Female 31 339 407 442 0.2 1.7 2.2 2.7 Black and Hispanic 335 806 891 924 2.7 4.0 4.8 5.6 Aircraft crew 11,966 12,525 12,181 10,758         Female 16 155 178 177 0.1 1.2 1.5 1.6 Black and Hispanic 445 552 581 604 3.7 4.4 4.8 5.6

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--> Engineering and maintenance 44,574 48,325 39,548 32,383         Female 2,021 3,268 3,631 3,147 4.5 6.8 9.2 9.7 Black and Hispanic 2,904 4,433 4,658 4,126 6.5 9.2 11.8 12.7 Aviation maintenance 8,028 8,069 7,388 6,412         Female 401 558 615 590 5.0 6.9 8.3 9.2 Black and Hispanic 480 550 564 544 6.0 6.8 7.6 8.5 Enlisted personnel 1,758,658 1,828,282 1,732,414 1,350,681         Female 148,771 179,049 188,913 163,196 8.5 9.8 10.9 12.1 Black and Hispanic 456,366 456,783 488,048 373,606 25.9 25.0 28.2 27.7 Electrical/mech. repair 348,461 368,245 347,765 269,820         Female 11,647 14,418 16,178 13,810 3.3 3.9 4.7 5.1 Black and Hispanic 70,011 70,624 74,965 58,539 20.1 19.2 21.6 21.7 Aircraft maintenance 146,290 151,700 135,610 108,699         Female 6,469 6,219 6,611 5,307 4.4 4.1 4.9 4.9 Black and Hispanic 24,441 25,779 24,084 19,409 16.7 17.0 17.8 17.9 NOTE: Data shown are for the end of the defense fiscal year (September). Data for occupational categories correspond to the following occupational codes: tactical operations, 2; fixed-wing pilots, 2A, 2B; aircraft crews, 2D; engineering and maintenance, 4; aviation maintenance, 4D; aircraft maintenance (enlisted only), 600, 601, 602, and 603) (U.S. Department of Defense, 1994). SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S. Department of Defense.

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--> the first time to command aviation maintenance units (Binkin, 1993:13). Women were admitted to the Air Force Academy, West Point, and the Naval Academy for the first time in 1976, and the classes of 1980 became the first coeducational classes in the history of the academies (Holm, 1992:305). These policy changes were reflected in the numbers and occupational mix of women in the military (Binkin, 1993:10-12). Between 1970 and 1990, the proportion of women in the armed forces grew from less than 2 percent to more than 11 percent. In 1970, 90 percent of women in the military were assigned to so-called traditionally female occupations (medical and administrative), but by 1990 that had dropped to 50 percent. By 1990 more than half of all Army positions—60 percent in the Navy and 97 percent in the Air Force—were considered gender neutral. Other significant changes for women in the military were triggered beginning in 1991. In that year, the statutory ban on women serving as combat aviators in the Air Force and the Navy was lifted. Detailed questions about the extent of women's participation in so-called combat assignments remained unresolved, however. Those issues were finally addressed when the secretary of defense ordered changes in Department of Defense policy, directing the services to open more specialties and assignments to women, particularly aircraft engaged in combat missions (Aspin, 1993, 1994). As a result, additional opportunities have opened up for women, including pilot assignments. Very few pilot assignments in the Air Force and the Navy are currently off-limits to women (pilot assignments in the Marine Corps being the exception) (U.S. Department of Defense, 1994:3-3 to 3-11). Given historical restrictions, it is not surprising that women constitute a small percentage of the aviation-related officer corps (Table 3-5). In 1994 women held 12.9 percent of all officer positions in the activeduty forces; however, they represented 2.5 percent of the tactical operations officer group, which contains the principal aviation-related officer occupations. In 1994, women held 1.5 percent of fixed-wing pilot positions in all military services, 2.7 percent of all helicopter pilot positions, and 1.6 percent of all aircrew positions. They were somewhat better represented in the ranks of aviation maintenance officers, at 9.2 percent. Comparing the 1994 figures to data for selected years back to 1980 (Table 3-5), women officers, as a percentage of all tactical officers, have increased their participation in the active-duty officer ranks and in aviation-specific occupations. For example, from 1980 to 1994, the proportion of women has increased for each of the following occupational groups: tactical officers from 0.8 percent to 2.5 percent; fixed-wing pilots from 0.3 percent to 1.5 percent; helicopter pilots from 0.2 percent to 2.7 percent; air crews, from 0.1 percent to 1.6 percent; engineering and maintenance officers, from 4.5 percent to 9.7 percent; and aircraft maintenance officers, from 5.0 percent to 9.2 percent. Although the proportion of

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--> female fixed-wing pilots remained unchanged between 1990 and 1994, their number shrank from 372 to 315 because of the drawdown. The proportion of enlisted aviation maintenance personnel who were women changed little (4.4 to 4.9 percent) from 1980 to 1994. These proportions were substantially lower than the overall percentages of women in the enlisted ranks. Downsizing and Training Opportunities for Women and Minorities The military drawdown, as Table 3-3 showed, is reducing the numbers of people entering the military ranks each year. Tables 3-6 and 3-7 illustrate the effect the drawdown is having on the entry of women and members of specific minority groups into pilot and mechanic slots, respectively. Figures 3-3 and 3-4 summarize these data for white men and women and minority men and women. The numbers indicate that, by and large, minorities and women have not lost ground in terms of their proportionate representation as the drawdown has proceeded. In the pilot ranks, there have even been some gains, for white women in particular. The drawdown does mean, however, that training opportunities in the military are fewer, for minorities and women as well as for white men. Only 50 black men, 45 Hispanic men, 84 white women, and 8 black or Hispanic women in their first year of active duty in 1995 were pilots or in pilot training, for example. The numbers were larger in the period just before the drawdown began. The reduction in training opportunities is especially stark for mechanics, for whom the annual intake is significantly smaller in the 1990s than it was in the 1980s. The data also lead to the conclusion that, despite the progress the military has made in opening pilot opportunities to minorities and women, the numbers in these groups remain a small fraction of the entering military pilot pool. The number of black men entering pilot programs is noticeably fewer than either women or other minority men; there has only been one year between 1980 and 1995 in which the total of all minority women from all racial/ethnic groups has exceeded nine. It is important to remember that these numbers represent the people entering pilot programs in the military and thus represent an upper bound on the pilots eventually leaving the military and entering the rank of civilian pilots. The actual number of former military pilots available to civilian airlines will be smaller, since some pilots entering military training will not complete it and some pilots leaving the military will not wish to become civilian airline pilots. Even without these considerations, and even under optimistic circumstances, it is clear that the military cannot be expected to make a dramatic contribution to increasing the numbers of blacks, women, and other minorities in the cockpits of civilian airlines. For example, if the number of black men entering military pilot training was increased to 100 per year (a figure never yet reached), if all completed the program successfully, if all sought employment with the airlines upon

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--> TABLE 3-6 Pilots in First Year of Duty, All Services, by Sex, Race, and Ethnic Status, 1980-1995 (percentages in parentheses) Year Total Male and Female Total Male Total Female Total Known Race/Ethnic Status White Male Black Male Hispanic Male Other Minority Male White Female Black Female Hispanic Female Other Minority Female 1980 2,880 (100) 2,801 (97) 79 (3) 2,669 (100) 2,460 (92) 47 (2) 27 (1) 56 (2) 76 (3) 0 * 1 * 2 * 1981 3,666 (100) 3,556 (97) 110 (3) 3,453 (100) 3,194 (92) 53 (2) 40 (1) 57 (2) 105 (3) 2 * 2 * 0 * 1982 3,485 (100) 3,384 (97) 101 (3) 3,295 (100) 3,030 (92) 74 (2) 40 (1) 57 (2) 90 (3) 3 * 0 * 1 * 1983 3,518 (100) 3,429 (97) 89 (3) 3,270 (100) 3,009 (92) 68 (2) 50 (2) 65 (2) 76 (2) 2 * 0 * 0 * 1984 3,502 (100) 3,397 (97) 105 (3) 3,473 (100) 3,174 (91) 89 (3) 52 (1) 54 (2) 98 (3) 2 * 4 * 0 * 1985 3,836 (100) 3,733 (97) 103 (3) 3,777 (100) 3,477 (92) 80 (2) 60 (2) 59 (2) 93 (2) 0 * 6 * 2 * 1986 3,612 (100) 3,492 (97) 120 (3) 3,556 (100) 3,220 (91) 71 (2) 68 (2) 77 (2) 113 (3) 2 * 2 * 3 * 1987 3,268 (100) 3,155 (97) 113 (3) 3,259 (100) 2,931 (90) 67 (2) 75 (2) 73 (2) 104 (3) 2 * 1 * 6 *

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--> 1988 3,205 (100) 3,101 (97) 104 (3) 3,174 (100) 2,888 (91) 54 (2) 47 (1) 81 (3) 100 (3) 1 * 1 * 2 * 1989 3,518 (100) 3,404 (97) 114 (3) 3,475 (100) 3,116 (90) 86 (2) 60 (2) 101 (3) 103 (3) 4 * 2 * 3 * 1990 3,383 (100) 3,247 (96) 136 (4) 3,371 (100) 3,008 (89) 91 (3) 59 (2) 77 (2) 131 (4) 4 * 1 * 0 * 1991 2,344 (100) 2,238 (95) 106 (5) 2,342 (100) 2,054 (88) 59 (3) 36 (2) 87 (4) 101 (4) 3 * 0 * 2 * 1992 2,095 (100) 1,994 (95) 101 (5) 2,086 (100) 1,824 (87) 54 (3) 42 (2) 65 (3) 92 (4) 3 * 1 * 5 * 1993 2,123 (100) 2,015 (95) 108 (5) 2,112 (100) 1,788 (85) 67 (3) 45 (2) 106 (5) 98 (5) 4 * 1 * 3 * 1994 1,252 (100) 1,164 (93) 88 (7) 1,238 (100) 1,011 (82) 53 (4) 36 (3) 50 (4) 81 (7) 6 * 0 * 1 * 1995 1,494 (100) 1,398 (94) 96 (6) 1,468 (100) 1,232 (84) 50 (3) 45 (3) 45 (3) 84 (6) 6 * 2 * 4 * NOTE: Data for "other minority" include American Indians/Alaskan Natives, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and others. Data for pilots reflect the following occupational categories: fixed-wing (2A & 2B); helicopters (2C); and pilot training (9B/902) (U.S. Department of Defense, 1994). * Less than 0.5% of total pilots. SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S. Department of Defense.

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--> TABLE 3-7 Aircraft Maintenance Enlisted Personnel in First Year of Duty, All Services, by Sex, Race, and Ethnic Status 1980-1995 (percentages in parentheses) Year Total Male and Female Total Male Total Female Total Known Race/Ethnic Status White Male Black Male Hispanic Male Other Minority Male White Female Black Female Hispanic Female Other Minority Female 1980 9,886 (100) 8,935 (90) 955 (10) 9,880 (100) 7,183 (73) 1,073 (11) 373 (4) 302 (3) 826 (8) 80 (1) 19 * 24 * 1981 12,711 (100) 11,767 (93) 944 (7) 12,705 (100) 9,853 (78) 1,077 (8) 451 (4) 380 (3) 807 (6) 87 (1) 25 * 25 * 1982 9,004 (100) 8,287 (92) 717 (8) 8,996 (100) 6,819 (76) 935 (10) 305 (3) 220 (2) 597 (7) 84 (1) 14 * 22 * 1983 5,851 (100) 5,487 (94) 364 (6) 5,850 (100) 4,721 (81) 448 (8) 190 (3) 127 (2) 310 (5) 40 (1) 8 * 6 * 1984 7,577 (100) 7,203 (95) 374 (5) 7,577 (100) 6,234 (82) 578 (8) 229 (3) 162 (2) 328 (4) 33 * 6 * 7 * 1985 10,057 (100) 9,449 (94) 608 (6) 10,056 (100) 8,023 (80) 882 (9) 303 (3) 240 (2) 540 (5) 50 * 9 * 9 * 1986 10,060 (100) 9,532 (95) 528 (5) 10,054 (100) 7,975 (79) 908 (9) 358 (4) 285 (3) 469 (5) 35 * 15 * 9 * 1987 7,939 (100) 7,526 (95) 413 (5) 7,934 (100) 6,280 (79) 707 (9) 335 (4) 200 (3) 359 (5) 30 * 13 * 10 *

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--> 1988 6,949 (100) 6,407 (92) 542 (8) 6,947 (100) 5,353 (77) 530 (8) 308 (4) 214 (3) 445 (6) 60 (1) 23 * 14 * 1989 5,630 (100) 5,052 (90) 78 (10) 5,626 (100) 4,210 (75) 423 (8) 207 (4) 208 (4) 454 (8) 70 (1) 34 (1) 20 * 1990 3,714 (100) 3,437 (93) 277 (7) 3,712 (100) 2,874 (77) 282 (8) 173 (5) 106 (3) 219 (6) 33 (1) 18 * 7 * 1991 4,153 (100) 3,930 (95) 223 (5) 4,151 (100) 3,374 (81) 266 (6) 183 (4) 105 (3) 175 (4) 25 (1) 15 * 8 * 1992 3,567 (100) 3,365 (94) 202 (6) 3,562 (100) 2,901 (81) 212 (6) 167 (5) 80 (2) 162 (5) 10 * 15 * 15 * 1993 3,516 (100) 3,317 (94) 199 (6) 3,511 (100) 2,768 (79) 234 (7) 192 (5) 118 (3) 155 (4) 25 (1) 12 * 7 * 1994 4,519 (100) 4,205 (93) 314 (7) 4,519 (100) 3,437 (76) 377 (8) 245 (5) 146 (3) 263 (6) 23 (1) 18 * 10 * 1995 3,218 (100) 3,011 (94) 207 (6) 3,215 (100) 2,425 (75) 264 (8) 191 (6) 128 (4) 163 (5) 19 (1) 12 * 13 * NOTE: Data for ''other minority" include American Indians/Alaskan Natives, Asian/Pacific Islanders, and other minorities. Data for aircraft maintenance enlisted personnel reflect occupational categories 600, 601, 602, and 603 (U.S. Department of Defense, 1994). * Less than 0.5 percent total aircraft maintenance personnel. SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S. Department of Defense.

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--> FIGURE 3-3 Pilots, first year of duty, all services, by sex, race, and ethnic status 1980-1995. SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S. Department of Defense. FIGURE 3-4 Aircraft maintenance enlisted personnel, first year of duty, all services, by sex, race, ethnic status, 1980-1995. SOURCE: Unpublished data provided by Defense Manpower Data Center, U.S. Department of Defense.

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--> leaving the military, and if all were hired by the majors, they would still constitute only about 3 percent of the typical annual pilot hires by the major airlines. And if all were hired by the majors, there would be none for the smaller jet carriers or for the regional airlines. The story is similar for women and for other minorities. It seems clear, then, that for significant progress to be made in reducing the underrepresentation of minorities and women in the airlines, attention must be focused on the civilian training pathways to a pilot career. Furthermore, this would be true even without military downsizing.