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indicators that suggest that assumptions may no longer be valid
or developments are taking a different course, calling for new
Neither modeling nor gaming can predict outcomes with any
confidence. However, modeling and gaming can provide useful
insights to strengthen deterrence programs. They are particularly
useful in understanding the dynamics of deterrence that often are
not apparent in static analysis. Modeling can integrate a wide set
of variables and may be particularly helpful in understanding key
relationships and linkages that may not otherwise be apparent.
Modeling also can help in understanding the likely consequences of
alternative strategies. Similarly, gaming with expert surrogates
provides opportunities to observe the interplay between two or more
sides and to understand the rationale behind key responses in
different value systems.
Both of these analytic tools can be useful in examining
important strengths and weaknesses of all sides-essential
information for effective deterrence. Both can and should be
applied a priori to anticipate potential crisis situations and the
field of possible responses. They can be especially helpful to the
group of ''strategic worriers" called for above and for
familiarizing strategic decision makers with situations and
possible responses they may actually be called upon to face during