AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER

Redirecting Expertise in Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Former Soviet Union

Office of International Affairs

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1996



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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER: Redirecting Expertise in Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Former Soviet Union AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER Redirecting Expertise in Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Former Soviet Union Office of International Affairs National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1996

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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER: Redirecting Expertise in Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Former Soviet Union NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competencies and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and interim vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council. This project was sponsored by: HQ Defense Nuclear Agency 6801 Telegraph Road Alexandria, Virginia 22310-3398 A limited number of copies of this report are available from: Office for Central Europe and Eurasia National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 Additional copies are available for sale from: National Academy Press 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Box 285 Washington, DC 20055 Tel: 1-800-624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington Metropolitan Area). International Standard Book Number: 0-309-05678-0 Copyright 1996 by the National Academy of Sciences . All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER: Redirecting Expertise in Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Former Soviet Union COMMITTEE TO ASSESS THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER GERALD P. DINNEEN, Chairman, Honeywell (retired) LEW ALLEN, JR., United States Air Force (retired) YVONNE C. BRILL, Aerospace Consultant ANTHONY J. IORILLO, Hughes Electronics (retired) JOHN H. MOORE, Grove City College THOMAS P. MONATH, OraVax ALBERT R.C. WESTWOOD, Sandia National Laboratories (retired) DOROTHY S. ZINBERG, Harvard University Ex-Officio Members HAROLD K. FORSEN, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Engineering F. SHERWOOD ROWLAND, Foreign Secretary, National Academy of Sciences Staff INTA BRIKOVSKIS ELSA L. BANKS

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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER: Redirecting Expertise in Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Former Soviet Union Preface The collapse of the Soviet Union brought a long-sought end to the Cold War and the arms race but led to new dangers and threats, particularly with regard to Soviet nuclear weapons and other weapons of mass destruction. The disintegration of central control and deteriorating social and economic conditions in the former Soviet Union (FSU) prompted concerns among Western governments that weapons scientists and engineers would flee to countries eager to acquire nuclear, biological, and chemical weapons knowhow. To reduce this threat, the European Atomic Energy Community and the European Economic Community (acting as one party), the United States, Japan, and the Russian Federation signed an agreement in 1992 to establish an International Science and Technology Center (ISTC) in Moscow, Russia.1 The ISTC began its operations in March 1994 with the signing of the Protocol on the Provisional Application of the Agreement Establishing an International Science and Technology Center.2 The United States, Canada, Sweden, and Ukraine subsequently signed a separate agreement in 1993 to establish the Science and Technology Center in Ukraine (STCU), which came into effect in May 1994.3 The STCU began operations in 1995. U.S. participation in the ISTC was originally funded under the U.S. Department of Defense's Cooperative Threat Reduction (CTR) program, commonly referred to as the Nunn-Lugar program.4 The ISTC has been funded by the U.S. Department of State since fiscal year 1996 and administered by the State Department since its inception. Meanwhile, convinced that a stable science and technology community in the FSU is in the interest of the United States, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), National Academy of Engineering, and Institute of Medicine, together with the National Research Council's (NRC) Office for Central Europe and Eurasia, carried out numerous activities to help preserve the important base of science and engineering in the FSU and improve relations between the United States and the FSU. Several of these activities, in particular, a workshop convened for the White House in 1992 and a conference in 1993 on sustaining the best of Soviet science, contributed to the present report.5 In May 1995 the Office of the Secretary of Defense requested that the NAS, through the NRC, undertake an assessment of the ISTC.6 The chairman of the NRC appointed a 10-member interdisciplinary committee of specialists to carry out the ISTC assessment. The specific task to the Committee to Assess the International Science and Technology Center was as follows: “ NAS shall establish an expert committee to assess the ISTC's success in providing, and potential to provide, weapons scientists and engineers in the CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] with opportunities to redirect their knowledge and talents to peaceful activities. The committee shall consider the effect that researcher mobility in Russia has had on the ISTC, and on its ability to achieve the stated goals. It shall also consider the ISTC's role in relation to other grant-making and assistance efforts. To provide information against which results can be measured, the NAS will collaborate with one or more FSU organizations to carry out studies on this issue. 1   See Appendix A. 2   See Appendix B. 3   See Appendix C. 4   The CTR program was established by the Soviet Threat Reduction Act of 1991, which authorized the transfer of up to $400 million from existing Defense Department programs to finance denuclearization activities in the FSU. Subsequent authorization and appropriations bills have allocated a total of $1.5 billion through f iscal year 1996 to provide Russia, Belarus, Kazakstan, and Ukraine with assistance in the destruction of nuclear, chemical, and other weapons of mass destruction; the transport, storage, and safeguarding of weapons in connection with their destruction; and the establishment of safeguards against proliferation of weapons and weapons-usable material. 5   The workshop and conference are the subject of two NRC publications: Reorientation of the Research Capability of the Former Soviet Union: A Report to the Assistant to the President for Science and Technology. Results of a Workshop on March 3, 1992, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1992; and Sustaining Excellence in Science and Engineering in the Former Soviet Union. Results of a conference held on February 3, 1993, National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1993. 6   The NAS/NRC contract is with the Defense Nuclear Agency (DNA). The DNA acts under the authority, direction, and control of the Assistant to the Secretary of Defense and supports the Department of Defense on matters concerning nuclear weapons.

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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER: Redirecting Expertise in Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Former Soviet Union goals. It shall also consider the ISTC's role in relation to other grant-making and assistance efforts. To provide information against which results can be measured, the NAS will collaborate with one or more FSU organizations to carry out studies on this issue. The NAS staff shall conduct discussions with U.S. organizations involved in grant-making and assistance efforts for weapons scientists and researchers in the CIS to ensure [that] duplication of effort is minimized. The committee shall conduct visits to the CIS as required. Committee members shall meet with selected recipients of ISTC grants for on-site evaluation of the projects' relevance to ISTC goals and their progress to date. If appropriate, the committee shall suggest changes to the ISTC's administrative and/or policy activities to better reach the stated goals.” 7 The committee assessed the ISTC's success in meeting its goals and considered the impact on the ISTC of researcher mobility, or so-called “brain drain,” as requested. The committee noted other efforts that have complementary goals but did not do an exhaustive study of other such efforts. The ISTC assessment was carried out in parallel with an NRC study of the effectiveness of U.S. programs to support efforts by Russia, Ukraine, Belarus, and Kazakstan to improve export controls and the protection, control, and accountability of fissile material. The NRC report on export control and fissile material will be completed and published in early 1997. The Department of Defense provided support for both NRC studies from CTR program funds. The ISTC assessment was conducted during the latter half of 1995 and first half of 1996. In addition to holding several meetings in the United States, committee members visited Russia in November 1995. Smaller subcommittees returned to Russia and visited Ukraine in May 1996. In Russia, committee members met with representatives of the ISTC and visited (or met with representatives from) 13 institutes that have received ISTC grants. The committee also met with various government officials and others involved in science and technology issues who have an interest in and/or knowledge of the ISTC and its impact on Russian science and technology. In Ukraine, committee members met with representatives of the STCU, the Ukrainian Government, and other organizations knowledgeable about the STCU's activities. Committee members then visited the Kiev Institute of Nuclear Research and the Kharkiv Institute of Physics and Technology, each of which had received several STCU grants8 In addition to the site visits and meetings in the FSU, the committee reviewed many reports on the CTR program and the ISTC, including reports by the U.S. General Accounting Office, the Congressional Research Service, the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, and the Monterey Institute. (Citations for these and other documents are provided throughout the text.) The present report is intended to offer an objective view of the status of the ISTC after its first two years of operation and to recommend directions for its future. The committee did not revisit issues pertaining to the initiation of the ISTC or its early progress, but did consider that history in its deliberations. The committee's recommendations were heavily influenced by its visits to institutes in Russia and Ukraine and by the experience of its members in related research and development activities9 The committee wishes to acknowledge the extraordinary assistance it received from the directors and staff of the ISTC and STCU. Their efforts in planning for and arranging our visits to institutes is much appreciated. The U.S. Ambassador to Russia and the staff of the American embassies in Moscow and Kiev were extremely supportive. In the United States, the State Department's Office of Regional Nonproliferation and the Defense Department's CTR Program office were most helpful in providing background data and recommendations for site visits. The committee wishes to especially thank Inta Brikovskis and Elsa Banks for their cheerful and enthusiastic assistance throughout the entire project. During our visit to Moscow, the first visit to Russia for some, they made difficult things look easy. Inta Brikovskis has been an effective and helpful editor as we brought our various views together in this report. GERALD P. DINNEEN, Chairman Committee to Assess the International Science and Technology Center 7   From DNA/NAS contract, May 9, 1995. 8   See Appendix E for a list of sites and meetings in Russia and Ukraine. 9   At the time of the committee's visit to Ukraine, the STCU was in the very early stages of its activities and was only beginning to sign contracts on funded projects. Therefore, the committee offers only initial observations about the STCU.

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AN ASSESSMENT OF THE INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER: Redirecting Expertise in Weapons of Mass Destruction in the Former Soviet Union Contents     PREFACE   v     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1  1   INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND   3  2   EMIGRATION OF SCIENTISTS AND ENGINEERS   8  3   THE ISTC AFTER TWO YEARS   10  4   FUTURE ISTC OBJECTIVES AND GOALS   19  5   THE SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY CENTER IN UKRAINE   24  6   CONCLUSION   27     APPENDIXES       A  Agreement Establishing an International Science and Technology Center   31     B  Protocol on the Provisional Application of the Agreement Establishing an International Science and Technology Center   36     C  Agreement to Establish a Science and Technology Center in Ukraine   37     D  Statute of the International Science and Technology Center   42     E  Committee Site Visits and Meetings, November 1995 and May 1996   51

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