REPORT OF THE OBSERVER PANEL FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN EARTHQUAKE POLICY SYMPOSIUM

U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium Observer Panel

Board on Natural Disasters

Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources

National Research Council

NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS
Washington, D.C.
1997



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Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium REPORT OF THE OBSERVER PANEL FOR THE U.S.-JAPAN EARTHQUAKE POLICY SYMPOSIUM U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium Observer Panel Board on Natural Disasters Commission on Geosciences, Environment, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1997

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Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the panel responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. Support for this study was provided by the Federal Emergency Management Agency. Additional copies of this report are available from: Board on Natural Disasters National Research Council 2101 Constitution Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20418 202-334-1964 The cover art for this report was created by Carrie Mallory, a graduate of the Cooper Union for the Advancement of Science and Art. She takes many of her themes for the natural world, and she has provided several covers for National Research Council reports. The original wood block for this cover was created using traditional Japanese carving tools, techniques, and inks. Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America

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Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium U.S.-JAPAN EARTHQUAKE POLICY SYMPOSIUM OBSERVER PANEL WILFRED IWAN, Chair, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena WILLIAM HALL, University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign LUCILE JONES, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California STEPHANIE H. MASAKI-SCHATZ, ARCO, Los Angeles, California PAUL SOMERVILLE, Woodward-Clyde Federal Services, Pasadena, California L. THOMAS TOBIN, Tobin & Associates, Mill Valley, California Staff CHARLES MEADE, Study Director SUSAN SHERWIN, Senior Project Assistant

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Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium BOARD ON NATURAL DISASTERS WILFRED IWAN, Chair, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena LLOYD CLUFF, Pacific Gas and Electric Company, San Francisco, California HENRY FALK, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, Georgia LUCILE JONES, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena, California JAMES KIMPEL, University of Oklahoma, Norman HOWARD KUNREUTHER, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia WALTER LYNN, Cornell University, Ithaca, New York STEPHANIE H. MASAKI-SCHATZ, ARCO, Los Angeles, California JOANNE NIGG, University of Delaware, Newark DALLAS PECK, U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, Virginia RICHARD ROTH, Northbrook, Illinois HARVEY RYLAND, Insurance Institute for Property Loss Reduction, Boston, Massachusetts ELLIS STANLEY, Atlanta-Fulton County Emergency Management Agency, Atlanta, Georgia FRANK THOMAS, Loudon, Tennessee GILBERT WHITE, University of Colorado, Boulder Staff STEPHEN PARKER, Director CHARLES MEADE, Senior Program Officer GREGORY SYMMES, Staff Officer ANDRE VARCHAVER, Consultant SUSAN SHERWIN, Senior Project Assistant

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Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chair, University of Virginia, Charlottesville PATRICK R. ATKINS, Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania JAMES P. BRUCE, Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario WILLIAM L. FISHER, University of Texas, Austin JERRY F. FRANKLIN, University of Washington, Seattle DEBRA S. KNOPMAN, Progressive Foundation, Washington, D.C. PERRY L. MCCARTY, Stanford University, California JUDITH E. MCDOWELL, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts S. GEORGE PHILANDER, Princeton University, New Jersey RAYMOND A. PRICE, Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario THOMAS C. SCHELLING, University of Maryland, College Park ELLEN K. SILBERGELD, University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL, Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida National Research Council Staff STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director GREGORY SYMMES, Reports Officer JAMES MALLORY, Administrative Officer SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate MARQUITA SMITH, PC Analyst and Project Assistant

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Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. William A. Wulf is interim president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Kenneth I. Shine is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. William A. Wulf are chairman and interim vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council

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Report of the Observer Panel for the U.S.-Japan Earthquake Policy Symposium Contents     EXECUTIVE SUMMARY   1 1   INTRODUCTION   3 2   BILATERAL PROGRAMS   7     Existing Agreements   7     New Cooperative Mechanisms from the Earthquake Policy Symposium   11     Conclusions   12 3   TOPICS FOR POLICY AND RESEARCH COLLABORATION   13     Earthquake Forecasting, Warning, and Hazard Zonation   15     Earthquake Risk Assessment and Loss Estimation   20     Earthquake Resistant Design, Construction, Rehabilitation, and Repair Standards   24     Earthquake Preparation, Response, Recovery, and Mitigation   27     Conclusions   27 4   CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS   29     Policy Leadership   30     Strategic Planning   30     Measuring Success   31     Expanded Dialogue   31     Function-to-Function Collaboration   31     Liaison Contact   32     Funding   32 APPENDIX A:   Correspondence   35 APPENDIX B:   American and Japanese Invitees   39 APPENDIX C:   Symposium Agenda   49 APPENDIX D:   Joint Statement   59

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