NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
This report was prepared with the support of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission under Award No. NRC-G-04-92-117. The opinions, findings, conclusions and recommendations expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission.
Additional copies of this report are available from:
Committee on Seismology
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
National Research Council
2101 Constitution Avenue, NW
HA 372
Washington, DC 20418
202-334-2744
The cover photo, courtesy of Walter Hays, U.S. Geological Survey, shows damage to Nimitz Freeway resulting from the Loma Prieta earthquake of 1989.
Copyright 1997 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Printed in the United States of America
PANEL ON SEISMIC HAZARD EVALUATION
CARL KISSLINGER, Chairman,
University of Colorado, Boulder
KEIITI AKI,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles
WALTER J. ARABASZ,
University of Utah, Salt Lake City
DENNIS K. BENSON,
Appropriate Solutions, Columbus, Ohio
JOHN E. EBEL,
Boston College, Massachusetts
THOMAS C. HANKS,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
JAMES S. LANGER,
University of California, Santa Barbara
NORMAN C. RASMUSSEN,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
LEON REITER,
Nuclear Waste Technical Review Board, Arlington, Virginia
DANIELE VENEZIANO,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
National Research Council Staff
WILLIAM E. BENSON, Study Director
JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
COMMITTEE ON SEISMOLOGY
THOMAS H. JORDAN, Chairman,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge
WALTER J. ARABASZ,
† University of Utah, Salt Lake City
F. A. DAHLEN,
* Princeton University, New Jersey
STEVEN M. DAY,
San Diego State University, California
THOMAS C. HANKS,
U.S. Geological Survey, Menlo Park, California
CHARLES A. LANGSTON,
Pennsylvania State University, University Park
THORNE LAY,
University of California, Santa Cruz
STEWART A. LEVIN,
Mobil Exploration & Production Technical Center, Dallas, Texas
STEPHEN D. MALONE,
University of Washington, Seattle
DONALD L. PAUL,
† Chevron Petroleum Technology Company, Houston, Texas
JAMES R. RICE,
Harvard University, Cambridge, Massachusetts
PAUL G. SOMERVILLE,
Woodward-Clyde Consultants, Pasadena, California
ANNE M. TREHU,
Oregon State University, Corvallis
JOHN E. VIDALE,
University of California, Los Angeles
National Research Council Staff
CHARLES MEADE, Senior Program Officer
WILLIAM E. BENSON, Senior Program Officer
JUDITH L. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
* |
Term expired December 31, 1995. |
† |
Term expired December 31, 1994. |
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
J. FREEMAN GILBERT, Chairman,
University of California, San Diego
THURE CERLING,
University of Utah, Salt Lake City
MARK P. CLOOS,
University of Texas at Austin
JOEL DARMSTADTER,
Resources for the Future, Washington, DC
KENNETH I. DAUGHERTY,
E-Systems, Fairfax, Virginia
WILLIAM R. DICKINSON,
University of Arizona, Tucson, emeritus
MARCO T. EINAUDI,
Stanford University, California
NORMAN H. FOSTER,
Independent Petroleum Geologist, Denver, Colorado
CHARLES G. GROAT,
University of Texas, El Paso
DONALD C. HANEY,
Kentucky Geological Survey, Lexington
SUSAN M. KIDWELL,
University of Chicago, Illinois
SUSAN KIEFFER,
Kieffer & Woo, Inc., Palgrave, Ontario
PHILIP E. LAMOREAUX,
P.E. LaMoreaux and Associates, Inc., Tuscaloosa, Alabama
SUSAN M. LANDON,
Thomasson Partner Associates, Denver, Colorado
J. BERNARD MINSTER,
Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla, California
ALEXANDRA NAVROTSKY,
Princeton University, New Jersey
JILL D. PASTERIS,
Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri
EDWARD C. ROY, JR.,
Trinity University, San Antonio, Texas
National Research Council Staff
CRAIG M. SCHIFFRIES, Director
THOMAS M. USSELMAN, Associate Director
WILLIAM E. BENSON, Senior Program Officer
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
CHARLES MEADE, Senior Program Officer
LALLY A. ANDERSON, Staff Associate
VERNA J. BOWEN, Administrative Assistant
JENNIFER T. ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
JUDITH ESTEP, Administrative Assistant
COMMISSION ON GEOSCIENCES, ENVIRONMENT, AND RESOURCES
GEORGE M. HORNBERGER, Chairman,
University of Virginia, Charlottesville
PATRICK R. ATKINS,
Aluminum Company of America, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
JAMES P. BRUCE,
Canadian Climate Program Board, Ottawa, Ontario
WILLIAM L. FISHER,
University of Texas at Austin
JERRY F. FRANKLIN,
University of Washington, Seattle
DEBRA S. KNOPMAN,
Progressive Foundation, Washington, DC
PERRY L. MCCARTY,
Stanford University, California
JUDITH E. MCDOWELL,
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Massachusetts
S. GEORGE PHILANDER,
Princeton University, New Jersey
RAYMOND A. PRICE,
Queen's University at Kingston, Ontario
THOMAS C. SCHELLING,
University of Maryland, College Park
ELLEN K. SILBERGELD,
University of Maryland Medical School, Baltimore
VICTORIA J. TSCHINKEL,
Landers and Parsons, Tallahassee, Florida
National Research Council Staff
STEPHEN RATTIEN, Executive Director
STEPHEN D. PARKER, Associate Executive Director
MORGAN GOPNIK, Assistant Executive Director
GREGORY SYMMES, Reports Officer
JAMES MALLORY, Administrative Officer
SANDI FITZPATRICK, Administrative Associate
MARQUITA SMITH, PC Analyst
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Preface
In the 1980s two studies produced probabilistic seismic hazard estimates for nuclear power plant sites in the central and eastern United States. The first, sponsored by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (USNRC), was conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The second, sponsored by utilities in the Seismicity Owners Group, was conducted by the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). The studies produced similar hazard curves and generally similar estimates of relative hazard. But for several sites absolute hazard levels differed by two or more orders of magnitude.
Because absolute hazard levels are important for nuclear power plant design, a new study, sponsored jointly by the USNRC, EPRI, and the U.S. Department of Energy, was undertaken by the newly formed Senior Seismic Hazard Analysis Committee (SSHAC) to determine the source of the major discrepancies in the two hazard estimates and to derive a robust probabilistic seismic hazards analysis methodology that could be used for future estimates.
At the same time, the USNRC asked the National Research Council (NRC) to review the work of the SSHAC study and evaluate the proposed methodology. This review was undertaken by the Panel on Seismic Hazard Evaluation of the NRC's Committee on Seismology which followed the work of the SSHAC study and produced the present critique of the SSHAC report.
Carl Kisslinger
Chairman