times in cases II and III (which require considerably more computational effort) produced uncertainty distributions for the AR.

The median of the uncertainty distribution for the AR is shown in Table A-10 along with 95% uncertainty limits covering the central mass of distribution. These limits range from 9.1–28.2% for the exposure-age-concentration model and from 6.8–21.0% for the exposure-age-duration model.

TABLE A-10a Impact of uncertainty and variability on uncertainty intervals for population attributable risk for males

 

Exposure-age-concentration model

Exposure-age-duration model

Source

AR

95%U.I.

AR

95%U.I.

Uncertainty when K = 1

0.148

(0.091, 0.238)

0.103

(0.068, 0.158)

Uncertainty incorporating variability in K

0.150

(0.097, 0.224)

0.106

(0.077, 0.178)

Uncertainty incorporating variability and uncertainty in K

0.159

(0.095, 0.259)

0.111

(0.081, 0.194)

TABLE A-10b Impact of uncertainty and variability on uncertainty intervals for population attributable risk for females

 

Exposure-age-concentration model

Exposure-age-duration model

Source

ARa

95%U.I.

ARa

95%U.I.

Uncertainty when K = 1

0.160

(0.099, 0.256)

0.111

(0.079, 0.179)

Uncertainty incorporating variability in Kb

0.169

(0.104, 0.278)

0.119

(0.084, 0.192)

Uncertainty incorporating variability and uncertainty in Kc

0.173

(0.104, 0.282)

0.125

(0.088, 0.210)

a Median of uncertainty distribution

b K ~ LN(gm = 1, gsd = 1.5)

c K ~ LN(gm = 1, gsd ~ LU(1.2, 2.2))



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