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361 The OEP Panel commends the successful efforts of insti- tutions that have done well in this area. The Univer- sities of Arizona, California, Hawaii, Texas, and Wyoming are examples of state universities that have been notably successful in obtaining funds from their state legisla- tures specifically earmarked for astronomy. The Hale, Lowell, and McDonald Observatories are examples of private institutions that have been similarly successful. There are probably other success stories of which we are unaware. 13. Reduced Administrative Burdens and MultiYear - Funding. There is a serious concern among scientists that too much time goes into research administration-- time that could otherwise be devoted to the research itself. The problem is exacerbated if the scientist's research is supported by a number of small grants and contracts rather than through a single, more substantial channel. We urge the funding agencies to switch, as rapidly as possible, to longer-term (say, 3-year) funding of research projects, with reporting requirements reduced to submission of copies of published papers or annual reports, or both. We further urge that simple mechanisms be instituted for consolidation of small projects from a single agency. IV. ASTRONOMY AND THE ASTRONOMERS IN THE 1970 ' s Astronomy has flourished in the 1970'S, despite constric- tions in public spending and employment opportunities. In this section we describe the astronomers and their activities in the 1970' s, beginning with a brief view of the profession in 1979. We then give a picture of the astronomical "pipeline" in the 1970' S. delineating how astronomers progress through the stages of an astronomical career: undergraduate, graduate student, postdoctoral recipient, tenure-track, and then tenured. Our surveys indicate that the most severe constriction in the pipe- line occurs at the juncture between the postdoctoral and the tenure-track stages. The challenge lies not in find- ing jobs but in finding jobs with some degree of perma- nence. The next section deals with trends that are likely to affect the profession. One trend of particular importance is the decline in university enrollment that will occur between now and the end of the century. This, combined

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362 with the relatively small number of astronomers near retirement age, is likely to produce an extremely tight job market in the 1980's. We then continue with a discus- sion of funding of astronomy, research trends in astronomy, astronomical facilities, international aspects of astronomy, and finally, communication with the public. A. The Astronomical Profession in 1979 We estimate (see Appendix 6.A) that the current number of practicing Ph.D. astronomers in the United States is 3000. Their distribution by place of employment is given in Table 6.1 (see Appendix 6.A for sources). Table 6.1 shows, not surprisingly, that astronomers are significantly underrepresented in industry compared with both the physics/astronomy community as a whole and with the total scientific community. The total number of physicists and astronomers is estimated by the National Research Council to be 23,876 in 1977, so astronomers are only a small component of the entry in the third column of Table 6.1. None of the changes between the first two columns of Table 6.1 are significant because of the small numbers and because of a change in the description of the category "Observatory or Research Institution" that oc- curred between surveys (see Appendix 6.A). TABLE 6.1 Place of Employment of U.S. Astronomersa Physicists All Science and and Astron- Engineering AAS Members (%) omers, Doctorates, Employer 1973 1978 1977 (%) 1977 (%) Education 64 58 54 56 Government 18 17 12 10 Observatory/ research institutions 8 13 5 Business/industry 5 8 29 Planetarium Other 1 1 5 3 1 - ~Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. 6 26 1

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363 TABLE 6.2 Distribution of Academic Astronomers Physicists Type of AAS Members (%) and Astronomers, Institution 1973 1978 1979 (%) Universities 90 83 62 4-year colleges 7 16 26 2-year colleges 3 1 12 . . ... . It is worth subdividing the large academic category by class of institution (Table 6.2). There has been a sig- nificant increase in the fraction of AAS members who are employed in the 4-year colleges. The uncertainties (see Appendix 6.A) based on counting statistics, indicate that the increase is definitely real. Our data cannot distin- guish between the person trained as a physicist who started teaching an astronomy course, learned some astron- omy, and joined the AAS and the astronomy-trained person who obtained a job at a 4-year college. Very few astronomers teach in junior colleges. Studies (see Appendix 6.A) show that the administrators of junior colleges do not see any significant increase in their future hiring of Ph.D.'s and have not hired many in the past (see the section on projections of the demand for astronomers below). B. The Astronomical "Pipeline" Figure 6.4 illustrates the various career stages through which astronomers pass. The width of the pipe at each stage corresponds roughly to the number per year passing through this stage in the 1970's. The distinction between "physics" (or, equivalently, "physics and astronomy") and "astronomy" departments used here is one that is consis- tently followed in our Panel report: an "astronomy" department is one that is listed separately, with its own chairman, in the AIP Directory of Physics and Astronomy Staff Members (American Institute of Physics, 1979) and that has a majority of department members working in astronomy. Other departments are classified by us as "physics" departments, though sometimes they are named "physics and astronomy."

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364 I POST- ~ I GRADUATE I j DOCTORAL I WORK ~ IN l - ASTRONOMY I I STUDY j I IN TRoNOMY! - I POST- b ~ 1 . ~ : ad, i,.' ~ I . :::::::: :-~:: T ~ ~ D ED A DO ::::Y:-:::::::::: ;:::::::::::::::: i:: An'' ' ~;~:2: `:::::::~::::: 'n`. :~ _ Fiji::::: :::::: ::~:: ~ :: :: I 50 PERSONS FIGURE 6.4 The bottleneck in the astronomical employment pipeline occurs at the point where a permanent position would normally be expected. The OEP Panel's major recom- mendation is for new assistant professorships and parallel-track positions to increase research vitality at universities; these recommendations, if implemented, would also lessen the employment problem. Detailed justification of the numbers embodied in the pipeline picture is provided in Appendix 6.A. Also note that the data used in constructing the figure were ob- tained at a time when the flow was far from a steady state. The pipeline begins with approximately 180 bachelor's degrees in astronomy awarded each year. Most of these people do not go on to graduate school in astronomy but to graduate study in other fields or to work. m e 60 who do continue astronomical studies are joined by 120 with bachelor's degrees in physics plus a few from other fields. The distinction between a bachelor's degree in astronomy and in physics is not great, since the courses taken are virtually identical at most institutions. Some departments offer "physics" degree programs that include several astronomy courses--programs that, elsewhere, would lead to "astronomy" bachelor's degrees. About 80 of those 180 students that enter astronomy graduate programs each year do not receive Ph.D. degrees

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365 in astronomy, leaving approximately 100 astronomy Ph.D. degrees each year. The 80 include "masters-only" recipi- ents. An additional 50 persons receive Ph.D. degrees in physics with theses on astronomical topics. These 50 persons have begun work in astronomy while in graduate school and therefore do not represent a separate influx of people into the field. A list of the departments awarding such degrees in 1975 illustrates that many well- known astronomical research institutions fall into this category: Caltech, Florida, Johns Hopkins, Hawaii, Louisiana State, MIT, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, University of New Mexico, New York University, Northwestern, Princeton (physics department), Rensselaer Polytechnic, Rochester, Syracuse, Texas A&M, Washington (St. Louis), Wyoming, and Yeshiva. We checked to see whether people from physics departments followed different tracks than people from astronomy departments and found no obvious trend. The next stage of the pipeline is the postdoctoral recipient. We define a postdoctoral position as a posi- tion of limited duration that will generally not be renewed for more than 3 years. When the National Research Council initially set up its postdoctoral fellowship pro- gram, these positions were regarded as being the most desirable way of spending a year or two following receipt of the Ph.D. (Kevles, 1977). Now, postdoctorates are the rule rather than the exception. The AIP surveys indicate that slightly more than half of the astronomy Ph.D.'s have a postdoctoral position in the February following the receipt of their Ph.D. This is probably a lower limit since some postdoctorate may respond that they accepted "employment" rather than a "postdoctoral" position. To delineate the pipeline, we viewed the normal dura- tion of the postdoctoral stage as 2 years--a desirable transition period. Following this stage, a number of avenues are open to those who do not obtain tenure-track positions. Visiting Faculty Positions: Teaching is involved, and the tenure of an individual position is limited to 1 year (although a person may receive successive appointments at the same institution). Extended Postdoctoral: Often one postdoctoral position is followed by another. Our data indicate that a move from one institution to another occurs. An AIP study (Porter, 1979) showed that half of the 1973 postdoctoral recipients held one postdoctoral position, one third held two, and 13% held three or more.

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366 Research Associate: A person is supported by a grant or contract and is employed as long as an appropriate grant is available. The desirability and stability of a research associate position depends on the arrangements made by a particular institution. We estimate that there are 300 people in the first two groups, plus 70 people who are in research-associate posi- tions with some degree of security. We believe that 150 represents a lower limit to the size of the extended post- doctoral reservoir and that 350 is an upper limit; the justification of these numbers is provided in Appendix 6.A. This reservoir represents between 5 and 12% of the astronomical labor force. We recognize that some of the research-associate posi- tions can be regarded as satisfactory from a long-term standpoint; these are represented in the figure by a pipe leading from the reservoir to the right-hand side of the picture (representing permanent positions). The OEP Panel's prime recommendation deals with this small part of the pipeline, which must become larger to stabilize the field in the 1980's. Responses to our questionnaire indicate that only 21% (18 of 87 institu- tions) had formal arrangements for a parallel track. Respondents listed 25 people as falling within this cate- gory. Since institutions responding to our questionnaire represent 44% of the astronomy work force, we estimate that about 60 people are in what can be considered to be satisfactory, long-term positions of this kind. Our follow-up studies show that this type of employment began to appear in 1970, and so we make a very uncertain esti- mate of 60/10 or 6 people per year who follow this route. Any survey would face serious problems in differentiating between research-associate positions that carry prestige reasonably similar to that of faculty positions and posi- tions that are regarded by the incumbents as extended holding patterns. In some other fields the proportion of research asso- ciates is considerably greater than the 10% that one obtains by comparing the number of research associates with the total number of astronomers. We examined our questionnaire results in search of significant differences in employment patterns as a function of research field, research orientation, and sex. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 6.A. In the population of 244 tenure-track employees, 144 research associates, and 165 postdoctoral recipients discussed, an

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367 above-average proportion of solar physicists and planetary astronomers were research associates when compared with the number of tenure-track employees. There were no other significant trends. Research associates were 11.19 female, in contrast to 6.6% of the tenure-track employees. Th is result, only significant at the 2-standard-deviation level, agrees with a similar (and similarly significant) finding of the AAS Committee on the Status of Women (1980). Another exit from the postdoctoral position is the tenure-track position, which can lead to a tenured job or its equivalent. In academic positions, the assistant professorship is often (but not always) such a position; there are some parallels in the National Astronomy Centers. In government laboratories, civil servants have a one-year probationary period, after which they possess a fairly high degree of job security. An additional group working in government laboratories are contract employees of an outside company who do astronomy as part of the con- tract between the company and the government laboratory. It seems clear from our data that the most difficult career transition to make, in the 1970's, was the one between the postdoctoral or other temporary position and a permanent or potentially permanent position. Our ques- tionnaire revealed information (Table 6.3) about those who were postdoctoral recipients or research associates in 1977/1978 and 1978/1979. We asked department chairmen the status of these persons in January 1980, a time interval such that the Persons had some opportunity to attempt to obtain a permanent position. The "probably permanent elsewhere" category includes those who took positions in industry. Most of the postdoctoral recipients and research associates were still in astronomy. In contrast, the transition between a tenure-track position and a tenured one proved considerably easier. In January 1980, we asked department heads and group leaders what had happened to those who were in tenure- track positions in 1973/1974 and 1974/1975. ~ , . 85% were still in astronomy, with rounded figures as follows: 43% tenured in the same department 1096 tenured in another department, in astronomy 9% civil servants 3% otherwise permanently employed in astronomy 9% research associates (including one postdoctoral recipient) 6% contract employee

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368 TABLE 6.3 Positions of Postdoctoral Recipients and Research Associates after 2 Yearsa Postdoctoral Research Recipients Associates Number in sample 165 144 Percent who are No longer in astronomy 7 4 Tenure or tenure-track 15 8 Civil servant 7 3 Probably permanent elsewhere 2 3 Visiting faculty 4 1 Research associate 16 73 Postdoctoral recipient 36 4 Contract employee 6 3 Unknown 8 1 Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. 6% still employed in astronomy, unknown employment status 15% were no longer in astronomy. Thus 64%, or 139 people in the sample, had achieved permanent employment in astronomy. We recognize that there are uncertainties in Figure 6.4. We believe the proportions at the end of the pipe- line are reasonably well established by our follow-up surveys, in particular those of the classes of 1970 and 1975. C. Trends With Time We use our follow-up studies to examine changes in the shape of the pipeline during the past 10 years. These studies have the disadvantage of examining people in various career stages. While it might be possible to examine the location and employment of people a specified number of years after receiving the Ph.D. degree, this would be difficult to do consistently. Furthermore, the job crisis in its present form--the presence of a large number of astronomers in temporary positions--has emerged

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369 only relatively recently, and studies of where people were 5 or 10 years ago would be uninstructive. With this caveat, we examine time-dependent trends. 1. Is There a Job Crisis? Our studies show that approximately one quarter of the astronomers receiving their Ph.D. degrees in the years 1959-1961 and 1964-1965 have left astronomy (Figure 6.5). These numbers form a baseline, since those astronomers faced a job market unconstrained by economics or demog- raphy. The difference in the fraction leaving astronomy for the classes of 1959-1961 and the more recent group is not statistically significant. What has changed are the types of positions occupied by those remaining in astron- omy, if we include the percentage who are in academic positions that are not in the tenure track. No one from the classes of 1959, 1960, or 1961 has such a position; all in academia are professors or associate professors and presumably have tenure. (Those with mailing addresse s at NASA laboratories might be contract employees or might be civil servants, and so it is hard to find out what the parallel curve for government laboratories would look like.) The percentage of people in non-tenure track positions has been rising sharply. Our questionnaire demonstrates the extreme difficulty of moving from a tem- porary position to a permanent or potentially permanent (tenure-track) position. Thus the "crisis" can be de- scribed as follows: persons with Ph.D. degrees in astron- omy are not leaving the field in unusual numbers, but they are in temporary positions rather than in permanent ones. Only if all of those in the pool of temporarily employed astronomers end up with permanent jobs in astronomy can one say that the attrition of people from the field is normal. A phenomenon of the 1970's has been the growth of this reservoir of temporarily employed people. How satisfactory are these non-tenure-track positions? A definitive answer is not possible. About a quarter of the people in the pool of temporary employees have' in fact, some explicit guarantee of job stability--some well defined parallel track. For some unknown and unknowable additional fraction, the institutional climate and confi- dence in institutional leadership makes their positions satisfying even in the absence of explicit guarantees. However, nearly half of the people in this pool are in extended postdoctoral holding patterns or are in visiting -

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370 00 80 60 40 20 o ~4 4/ 960 AT 965 1 970 1 975 YEAR FIGURE 6.5 The dimensions of the employ- ment problem. Open circles, percentage of those receiving a Ph.D. degree (still liv- ing) who are still in astronomy; T. per- centage of those in academia who are in nontenure track, possibly temporary posi- tions; 4, percentage of those in academia who are in 4-year colleges versus year Ph.D. degree was received. Those who obtained the Ph.D. degree in 1970 would normally be pected to have obtained permanent positions by now. faculty positions, and some others are in temporary research-associate positions. Our proposal for the creating of an increased number of stable research associate positions with professional stature equivalent to faculty positions addresses this problem. Why does astronomy have a job problem, when the prob- lem in physics is apparently easing (Grodzins, 1979)? First (Figure 6.6), the number of physics degrees awarded

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371 has declined by one third since its peak in 1970, while the number of astronomy degrees awarded has remained about 150 per year throughout the 1970's. Second (Figure 6.7), astronomers find a less natural home in industry than physicists do. Physicists who work for industrial firms still consider themselves to be doing physics. Astrono- mers in industry who do astronomy generally work for companies with income from federal grants, rather than from product sales, and they thus have a future that depends on federal funding for astronomy rather than on the general state of the economy. 11 o llJ :E is _ LLI Ct 10004 _ _ 100 - ~- ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1966 1968 1970 1972 1 974 1 976 1978 YEAR OF DEGREE FIGURE 6.6 Number of degrees awarded per year in all physical sciences (circles with dots); source: NRC Summary Report: 1978 Doc- toral Recipients for United States Univer- sities, 1979); physics (filled circles) and astronomy (open circles). Sources for physics and astronomy are given in Appendix 6.A.

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403 range from typical values of 200,000 per year up to 400,000 per year. However, only 33,348 students take courses in the 69 departments listed by the AIP as giving some kind of astronomy degree--38 separate astronomy departments and 31 combined departments named "astronomy and physics departments (Ellis, 1979). An additional 58,672 students are in introductory courses in physics departments with graduate programs. The remainder--the majority of astronomy students--are taught in the under- graduate colleges and junior colleges, often by instruc- tors without any formal background or training in astron- omy. If the annual enrollments of 200,000 per year or more continue through the 1980's, at least 2 million people will have been exposed to astronomy through this means. It is important for departments and professional organizations to ensure that these courses are taught well. At the very least, these 2 million voters should remember astronomy as a fascinating human venture rather than as the least painful (or least difficult) way to fulfill a science requirement. While no formal surveys have been done, our impression is that student response to these courses has been good. Certainly their high enrollment in the face of competing courses offered by other science departments in search of students to popu- late their courses is encouraging. H. Funding Trends 1. Introduction m e health of astronomy can be measured by a variety of means. However, one must first ask: Should it be healthy? We believe the answer to be an unqualified yes since astronomy makes fundamental discoveries about our Universe, its energy and matter, its origin and evolution, and the basic laws of physics governing its behavior. The theoretical underpinning is moving along in good synchrony with new observations, advanced technology for detectors and data processing has advanced at a timely rate, and access to space for astronomical observations has become almost routine. Thus, we judge astronomy to merit, in a competitive world, a significant investment in terms of people and financial resources. In this section we treat the financial resources with the aim of establishing what absolute dollar resources are going into astronomy and its component parts, what proportion

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404 of research money astronomy receives (i.e., how well it competes), and whether the absolute and relative amounts are reasonable. Finally, we wish to see if funding trends have developed, consciously or otherwise, good or bad, which need to be brought to the attention of the funding agencies and the astronomy community. 2. Astronomy's Competitive Position Since the mid-1960's, astronomy's proportion of the nation's basic research budget has ranged from a high of 12% to a low of 6~. The prime sources of astronomy funding are NASA and NSF, typically 95%, with DOD and other agencies supplying a smaller albeit important portion (Figure 6.23). The important effect of nonfederal support of astronomy may be seen in Figure 6.24, from Kuhner (1978). "Other" includes private and state support. "None," means "none cited," and undoubtedly includes some work that was feder- ally supported but not acknowledged. "None" most cer- tainly does not mean that the work was unsupported; we judge that most of the support involved was actually private and state. Of the federal funding agencies, NSF, DOD, and others have contributed in a relatively stable way over the past decade, with the major fluctuations being caused by specific NASA flight projects. For example, the high occurred in 1969 during the funding of the Apollo Tele- scope Mount, and the low during the "restructuring" of the High Energy Astronomy Observatory (HEAD) series in 1975 (Figure 6.25). As proportions of internal budgets within NSF, astronomy has remained rather constant, at about 5% until construction of the VLA when it rose to about 6.5%. In NASA, the physics and astronomy program has steadily increased since 1965, with allowance for the HEAD drop in 1975, from 3% to over 9% of the NASA research and development (R&D) budget. This tripling of percentage represents a doubling of actual funding, the combination reflecting both a decrease in total NASA R&D over the period and an increased sophistication of spacecraft and importance of space astronomy. 3. NASA Funding for Astronomy Within NASA, most astronomy funding in the 1970's has come from the physics and astronomy programs. The pro-

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405 300 250 200 150 100 50 o FEDERAL FUNDING FOR ASTRONOMY $ MILLION NASA NSF _ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 / OTHER 70 75 80 300 250 200 150 100 50 o FIGURE 6.23 Federal funds for astronomy basic research as reported to NSF and compiled in Volumes 19-29 of Federal Funds for Research and Development. Fiscal year 1979 is the last year for which actual expenditures are reported. gram functions include supporting research and technology (SR&T), project funding (spacecraft development and mis- sion operations), and data analysis. These functions are spread in differing and changing proportions among a num- ber of program categories. It is almost impossible, and totally impractical, to derive accurate values for the functional categories. NASA funding for physics and

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406 NASA TOTAL = 21 'o / NASA / - NONE \ 22X \ NONE S3 ~ \ ~ NASA TOTAL = 32' l NSF TOTAL = 36' 42co ~ /4~/\ 1 1 ~ NSF 23% 7 - \ OTH ER \_ 14~ J 1965 OTHER TOTAL = 276' NSr TOTAL = 49% NASA 17% 1977 ',i; 28lo 1 0 ' \ OTHER gcO 70THER TOTAL = 24 FIGURE 6.24 Changes in the funding pattern for papers published in the Astrophysical Journal. (From Kuhner, 1978.) astronomy is shown in Figure 6.26. Over the past decade, the Sounding Rocket, Airborne and Balloon programs have had close to level funding in real-year dollars. These programs are typically used for experiment development, for first looks, and for observations that inherently do not require the lengthly observing times attainable from

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407 satellites. The nature of these programs allows quick reaction to new findings and has served as a valuable training ground for graduate students to develop engi- neering skills needed in space-hardware construction. The impact of inflation on these programs has been strik- ing, there being a large component of petroleum-derived material in balloons, aircraft operations, and sounding rocket propellants. The Explorer program, currently at a level of $33 million, has provided a steady source of satellite hardware since the mid-1960's. Considered a "level-of- effort" program, it has experienced increased financial demands owing to increasing sophistication of satellites, including instrumentation; increased operating costs caused by longer orbital lifetime and associated data analysis; and increased R&D cost caused by more work done 10, . . .09 08 07 06 .05 04 03 _ 02 ~ , \~' \\ I .01 \! O ~ L I If I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 56 1(.14) l l l l \ "~\~` . ~ , it, NSF as: NSF TOT. l I .',-- 1 NASA PEA NASA ROD 1 1 1 1 1 1 75 80 60 65 70 YEAR FIGURE 6.25 Sources of funding for astronomy. Astronomy funding from NSF is plotted as a fraction of the total NSF budget (dashed line). For NASA the Physics and Astronomy program is plotted as a fraction of the Research and Tech- nology budget. These ratios are very sensitive to variation in the number of major construction projects. 10 .09 08 05 04 03 02 01 O

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408 175 150 125 100 75 50 PHYS I C S AND ASTRONOMY BASELINE PROGRAM S MILLION , , Explorer =~ ~ 9;~ AT -ATn , _ . 25 _ ,/ / / / Mlsslon - / ops ~ / Data An I . ~ . _ S. Rockets Ba I loons O. ~~ 4 60 65 70 75 80 YE AR 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 O FIGURE 6.26 NASA physics and astronomy baseline pro- grams: cumulative fiscal year budgets for "level-of- effort" programs. Approximately one third of "Sounding Rockets" goes to experiment development. The Supporting Research and Technology-Advanced Technology Development (SRT-ATD) constitutes the bulk of university grants for nonflight research. The Data Analysis line typically supports data analysis in excess of that associated with the prime mission. The Explorer program initially con- tained spacecraft development, mission operations, and data analysis. With establishment of a separate Mission Operations and Data Analysis budget line in 1977, the Explorer line now contains only spacecraft development funds. All budget numbers are from NASA budget documents and are in real-year dollars. 1982 values are based on the March 1981 Reagan Administration revised budget submission.

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409 on contract (versus in-house personnel, whose cost is separately budgeted by NASA). To alleviate the pressures in the Explorer and other programs, a Mission Operations and Data Analysis item was instituted in fiscal year 1977 so that now most of the Explorer budget goes into space- craft development. Data Analysis and Research and Analysis (grant fund- ing, formerly called SR&T) support were slowly decreasing in the late 1960's and early 1970's when a concerted effort was made by NASA to try to increase them to counter the effects of inflation and to take advantage of the new opportunities becoming available. The increases in the mid to late 1970's includes specific advanced technology development (ATD) for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and Space Telescope in 1975 and 1976 and the first significant Spacelab definition funding ($3 million to $4 million per year from 1975 to present). A 82.5 million program in theoretical plasma physics was initiated in 1980. The increased spacecraft complexity and longer orbital lifetimes put extreme pressure on the NASA operations and data analysis budgets, resulting in the creation of a line item for these costs in 1977. All operational costs and data analysis occurring during the lifetime of space- craft including Explorers, is covered by this item (data analysis typically extending one year beyond end of mis- sion). The significant increase is attributable in large part to operations and data analysis for the HEAD'S, SSM, IUE, and ISEE, all but the latter being astronomy . mlsslons . Figure 6.27 shows funding since 1961 of physics and astronomy flight programs, exclusive of Explorers. Note that all are astronomical except the Orbiting Geophysical Observatories in the 1960's and about 50% of the Spacelab payloads initiated in the late 1970's. The trends are obvious--a decreasing rate in the 1960's as Orbiting Solar Observatories and Orbiting Astronomical Observatories phased out and a significant increase in the mid to late 1970's occasioned by HEAD's, SSM, SST, International Solar Polar Mission, and Spacelab. 4. NSF Funding for Astronomy Figure 6.28 shows NSF funding since 1970 for the three major categories: Grants (the major source of university research support); Center Operations, which fund the National Centers (Kits Peak National Observatory, Cerro

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410 1 200 150 100 50 o PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY FL IGHT PROGRAMS S MILLIONS jam AOSO an,/ I I iSL \ A"/ \~_,/ \. \OSO/ \ \ in/\ ' ST OGO j\ \ \ / - \ OAO \., .~.//HEAO \ 1 1 1 ,iG>O. ,\y , 75 80 60 65 70 YEAR 200 150 100 50 o FIGURE 6.27 NASA physics and astronomy flight programs: cumulative fiscal year annual budgets for spacecraft developments. Spacecraft development includes mission operations and significant data analysis funding through 1977, at which time a new Mission Operations and Data Analysis budget line was established (see Figure 6.26). OAO (Orbiting Astronomical Observatory), OGO (Orbiting Geophysical Observatory), OSO (Orbiting Solar Observa- tory), AOSO (Advanced Orbiting Astronomical Observatory), HEAD (High Energy Astronomical Observatory), SSM (Solar Maximum Mission), SL (Spacelab payloads), ST (Space TeLe- scope), SP (International Solar Polar Mission), GRO (Gamma Ray Observatory). All budgets are in real-year dollars. 1982 values are based on the March 1981 Reagan Administration revised budget submission, which deferred the GRO, reduced SL, and canceled the U.S. portion of the International Solar Polar Mission. (1981 has not been changed to reflect the impact of the proposed 1982 revisions of the Carter submission.) All budget numbers are taken from NASA budget documents. Costs of launch vehicles and NASA manpower are not included.

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411 1 1 10 9 8 CL o 7 6 3 2 ,~ a o 5 _ J4 - I I _ 1 MSF SUPPORT IN CONSTANT 1970 DOLLARS , GRANTS VLA \~ ~ NRAO - KPNO ,NAIC CTIO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .1 70 72 74 76 78 Fl SCAL YEAR FIGURE 6.28 NSF astronomy funding, 1970- 1982. The Grants program, National Center operations, and construction of major facil ities are plotted cumulatively (solid lines). me total NSF Astronomy Division funds are given by the upper line. The ratio of dollars for National Center opera- tions to dollars for research grants is plotted as a dashed line. The 1982 numbers are based on the revised budget submitted by the Reagan Administration in March 1981, which deferred construction of a 25-m millimeter-wave radio telescope. - Tololo Inter-American Observatory, National Radio Astron- omy Observatory, National Atmospheric and Ionospheric Center, and Sacramento Peak Observatory); and Facilities [such as Very Large Array (VLA) construction]. The trend for Grants and for Center Operations has been upward in real-year dollars. Center Operations represents new responsibilities including Sacramento Peak Observatory in 1977 and the initiation of VLA operations in 1978. The Facilities "wedge" represents mainly a major resurfacing

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412 70 60 50 40 20 NSF ASTRONOMY DIVISION By - ~ MILL10~/ / / LOCI L/ / CENTER / OPERATIONS 30 __ ~ - OPS: '' ~~ _ GRANTS 10 ~ 01 _ 70 GRANTS 75 YEAR 3.0 2.5 2.0 I 5 0 80 FIGURE 6.29 NSF support is shown, in con- stant dollars, for the grants program, for the Very Large Array (VLA), for the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO), for Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO), for the National Atmospheric and Ionospheric Center (NAIC), and for the Cerro Tololo Inter- American Observatory (CTIO). of the large Arecibo dish in the early 1970's and VLA construction in the mid to late 1970's. With the comple- tion of the VLA, there is no major facilities construction in the NSF Astronomy Program starting in 1981 (initiation of a proposed 25-m millimeter wave telescope has been deferred because of federal budget restrictions). On a constant-dollar basis, the effect of inflation has been particularly severe. Figure 6.29 shows that while the Grants program has risen slightly in constant dollars, the Center Operations funds have stayed level or have actually decreased over the 1970's. m is trend is also reflected in the Center Operations to Grants ratio (see Figure 6.28), which shows a steady decrease from a high of 2.7 in 1970 to a low of 1.8 in 1978. A conscious

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413 decision has been made in NSF to bring that ratio up to 2.0, a value reached in the proposed fiscal year 1981 budget. The trends in number of grants, average grant size, total grant dollars, and number of astronomers are shown in Figure 6.30. The number of astronomers has risen by 40% over the decade (judging from AAS membership), while the number of NSF grants rose by 60% (some of this in- crease represents a breakup of several large grants into a number of smaller grants); the average grant size rose from about $50,000 to about $80,000, and the total grant 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 o AVG. GRANT (a K) l 400(0) TOTAL GRANTS SM :~ / 20 - 350(0)) #BAAS MEMBERS;/ / 16 /~/T ~~ 4250(0) AIR _ / OF GRANTS - / , 1 ;1 ,l l, l Ail 1 -- 70 75 80 YEAR 60 65 200(0) OF GRANTS WAS (0) 150(0) 130(0) FIGURE 6.30 NSF astronomy funding compared with number of astronomers. The total grant funding and the number of grants are plotted in actual dollars. The average grant size shows a 50% increase from 1970 to 1980: the Consumer Price Index rose twice as rapidly during that time. Membership in the American Astronomical Society (AAS) is indicative of the number of capable research astronomers in the United States. Nearly all AAS members have a Ph.D. degree. During the last decade the AAS membership increased by 40%.