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Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels (1983)

Chapter: IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's

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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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Suggested Citation:"IV. Astronomy and the Astronomers in the 1970's." National Research Council. 1983. Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 2: Reports of the Panels. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/550.
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361 The OEP Panel commends the successful efforts of insti- tutions that have done well in this area. The Univer- sities of Arizona, California, Hawaii, Texas, and Wyoming are examples of state universities that have been notably successful in obtaining funds from their state legisla- tures specifically earmarked for astronomy. The Hale, Lowell, and McDonald Observatories are examples of private institutions that have been similarly successful. There are probably other success stories of which we are unaware. 13. Reduced Administrative Burdens and MultiYear - Funding. There is a serious concern among scientists that too much time goes into research administration-- time that could otherwise be devoted to the research itself. The problem is exacerbated if the scientist's research is supported by a number of small grants and contracts rather than through a single, more substantial channel. We urge the funding agencies to switch, as rapidly as possible, to longer-term (say, 3-year) funding of research projects, with reporting requirements reduced to submission of copies of published papers or annual reports, or both. We further urge that simple mechanisms be instituted for consolidation of small projects from a single agency. IV. ASTRONOMY AND THE ASTRONOMERS IN THE 1970 ' s Astronomy has flourished in the 1970'S, despite constric- tions in public spending and employment opportunities. In this section we describe the astronomers and their activities in the 1970' s, beginning with a brief view of the profession in 1979. We then give a picture of the astronomical "pipeline" in the 1970' S. delineating how astronomers progress through the stages of an astronomical career: undergraduate, graduate student, postdoctoral recipient, tenure-track, and then tenured. Our surveys indicate that the most severe constriction in the pipe- line occurs at the juncture between the postdoctoral and the tenure-track stages. The challenge lies not in find- ing jobs but in finding jobs with some degree of perma- nence. The next section deals with trends that are likely to affect the profession. One trend of particular importance is the decline in university enrollment that will occur between now and the end of the century. This, combined

362 with the relatively small number of astronomers near retirement age, is likely to produce an extremely tight job market in the 1980's. We then continue with a discus- sion of funding of astronomy, research trends in astronomy, astronomical facilities, international aspects of astronomy, and finally, communication with the public. A. The Astronomical Profession in 1979 We estimate (see Appendix 6.A) that the current number of practicing Ph.D. astronomers in the United States is 3000. Their distribution by place of employment is given in Table 6.1 (see Appendix 6.A for sources). Table 6.1 shows, not surprisingly, that astronomers are significantly underrepresented in industry compared with both the physics/astronomy community as a whole and with the total scientific community. The total number of physicists and astronomers is estimated by the National Research Council to be 23,876 in 1977, so astronomers are only a small component of the entry in the third column of Table 6.1. None of the changes between the first two columns of Table 6.1 are significant because of the small numbers and because of a change in the description of the category "Observatory or Research Institution" that oc- curred between surveys (see Appendix 6.A). TABLE 6.1 Place of Employment of U.S. Astronomersa Physicists All Science and and Astron- Engineering AAS Members (%) omers, Doctorates, Employer 1973 1978 1977 (%) 1977 (%) Education 64 58 54 56 Government 18 17 12 10 Observatory/ research institutions 8 13 5 Business/industry 5 8 29 Planetarium Other 1 1 — 5 3 1 - ~Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. 6 26 1

363 TABLE 6.2 Distribution of Academic Astronomers Physicists Type of AAS Members (%) and Astronomers, Institution 1973 1978 1979 (%) Universities 90 83 62 4-year colleges 7 16 26 2-year colleges 3 1 12 . . ... . It is worth subdividing the large academic category by class of institution (Table 6.2). There has been a sig- nificant increase in the fraction of AAS members who are employed in the 4-year colleges. The uncertainties (see Appendix 6.A) based on counting statistics, indicate that the increase is definitely real. Our data cannot distin- guish between the person trained as a physicist who started teaching an astronomy course, learned some astron- omy, and joined the AAS and the astronomy-trained person who obtained a job at a 4-year college. Very few astronomers teach in junior colleges. Studies (see Appendix 6.A) show that the administrators of junior colleges do not see any significant increase in their future hiring of Ph.D.'s and have not hired many in the past (see the section on projections of the demand for astronomers below). B. The Astronomical "Pipeline" Figure 6.4 illustrates the various career stages through which astronomers pass. The width of the pipe at each stage corresponds roughly to the number per year passing through this stage in the 1970's. The distinction between "physics" (or, equivalently, "physics and astronomy") and "astronomy" departments used here is one that is consis- tently followed in our Panel report: an "astronomy" department is one that is listed separately, with its own chairman, in the AIP Directory of Physics and Astronomy Staff Members (American Institute of Physics, 1979) and that has a majority of department members working in astronomy. Other departments are classified by us as "physics" departments, though sometimes they are named "physics and astronomy."

364 I POST- ~ I GRADUATE I j DOCTORAL I WORK ~ IN l - ASTRONOMY I I STUDY j I IN TRoNOMY! - I POST- b ~ 1 . ~ : ad, i,.' ~ I . :::::::: :-~:: T ~ ~ D ED A DO ::::Y:-:::::::::: ;:::::::::::::::: i:: An'' ' ~;~:2: `:::::::~::::: 'n`. :~ _ Fiji::::: :::::: ::~:: ~ :: :: I 50 PERSONS FIGURE 6.4 The bottleneck in the astronomical employment pipeline occurs at the point where a permanent position would normally be expected. The OEP Panel's major recom- mendation is for new assistant professorships and parallel-track positions to increase research vitality at universities; these recommendations, if implemented, would also lessen the employment problem. Detailed justification of the numbers embodied in the pipeline picture is provided in Appendix 6.A. Also note that the data used in constructing the figure were ob- tained at a time when the flow was far from a steady state. The pipeline begins with approximately 180 bachelor's degrees in astronomy awarded each year. Most of these people do not go on to graduate school in astronomy but to graduate study in other fields or to work. m e 60 who do continue astronomical studies are joined by 120 with bachelor's degrees in physics plus a few from other fields. The distinction between a bachelor's degree in astronomy and in physics is not great, since the courses taken are virtually identical at most institutions. Some departments offer "physics" degree programs that include several astronomy courses--programs that, elsewhere, would lead to "astronomy" bachelor's degrees. About 80 of those 180 students that enter astronomy graduate programs each year do not receive Ph.D. degrees

365 in astronomy, leaving approximately 100 astronomy Ph.D. degrees each year. The 80 include "masters-only" recipi- ents. An additional 50 persons receive Ph.D. degrees in physics with theses on astronomical topics. These 50 persons have begun work in astronomy while in graduate school and therefore do not represent a separate influx of people into the field. A list of the departments awarding such degrees in 1975 illustrates that many well- known astronomical research institutions fall into this category: Caltech, Florida, Johns Hopkins, Hawaii, Louisiana State, MIT, New Mexico Institute of Mining and Technology, University of New Mexico, New York University, Northwestern, Princeton (physics department), Rensselaer Polytechnic, Rochester, Syracuse, Texas A&M, Washington (St. Louis), Wyoming, and Yeshiva. We checked to see whether people from physics departments followed different tracks than people from astronomy departments and found no obvious trend. The next stage of the pipeline is the postdoctoral recipient. We define a postdoctoral position as a posi- tion of limited duration that will generally not be renewed for more than 3 years. When the National Research Council initially set up its postdoctoral fellowship pro- gram, these positions were regarded as being the most desirable way of spending a year or two following receipt of the Ph.D. (Kevles, 1977). Now, postdoctorates are the rule rather than the exception. The AIP surveys indicate that slightly more than half of the astronomy Ph.D.'s have a postdoctoral position in the February following the receipt of their Ph.D. This is probably a lower limit since some postdoctorate may respond that they accepted "employment" rather than a "postdoctoral" position. To delineate the pipeline, we viewed the normal dura- tion of the postdoctoral stage as 2 years--a desirable transition period. Following this stage, a number of avenues are open to those who do not obtain tenure-track positions. Visiting Faculty Positions: Teaching is involved, and the tenure of an individual position is limited to 1 year (although a person may receive successive appointments at the same institution). Extended Postdoctoral: Often one postdoctoral position is followed by another. Our data indicate that a move from one institution to another occurs. An AIP study (Porter, 1979) showed that half of the 1973 postdoctoral recipients held one postdoctoral position, one third held two, and 13% held three or more.

366 Research Associate: A person is supported by a grant or contract and is employed as long as an appropriate grant is available. The desirability and stability of a research associate position depends on the arrangements made by a particular institution. We estimate that there are 300 people in the first two groups, plus 70 people who are in research-associate posi- tions with some degree of security. We believe that 150 represents a lower limit to the size of the extended post- doctoral reservoir and that 350 is an upper limit; the justification of these numbers is provided in Appendix 6.A. This reservoir represents between 5 and 12% of the astronomical labor force. We recognize that some of the research-associate posi- tions can be regarded as satisfactory from a long-term standpoint; these are represented in the figure by a pipe leading from the reservoir to the right-hand side of the picture (representing permanent positions). The OEP Panel's prime recommendation deals with this small part of the pipeline, which must become larger to stabilize the field in the 1980's. Responses to our questionnaire indicate that only 21% (18 of 87 institu- tions) had formal arrangements for a parallel track. Respondents listed 25 people as falling within this cate- gory. Since institutions responding to our questionnaire represent 44% of the astronomy work force, we estimate that about 60 people are in what can be considered to be satisfactory, long-term positions of this kind. Our follow-up studies show that this type of employment began to appear in 1970, and so we make a very uncertain esti- mate of 60/10 or 6 people per year who follow this route. Any survey would face serious problems in differentiating between research-associate positions that carry prestige reasonably similar to that of faculty positions and posi- tions that are regarded by the incumbents as extended holding patterns. In some other fields the proportion of research asso- ciates is considerably greater than the 10% that one obtains by comparing the number of research associates with the total number of astronomers. We examined our questionnaire results in search of significant differences in employment patterns as a function of research field, research orientation, and sex. A detailed table is provided in Appendix 6.A. In the population of 244 tenure-track employees, 144 research associates, and 165 postdoctoral recipients discussed, an

367 above-average proportion of solar physicists and planetary astronomers were research associates when compared with the number of tenure-track employees. There were no other significant trends. Research associates were 11.19 female, in contrast to 6.6% of the tenure-track employees. Th is result, only significant at the 2-standard-deviation level, agrees with a similar (and similarly significant) finding of the AAS Committee on the Status of Women (1980). Another exit from the postdoctoral position is the tenure-track position, which can lead to a tenured job or its equivalent. In academic positions, the assistant professorship is often (but not always) such a position; there are some parallels in the National Astronomy Centers. In government laboratories, civil servants have a one-year probationary period, after which they possess a fairly high degree of job security. An additional group working in government laboratories are contract employees of an outside company who do astronomy as part of the con- tract between the company and the government laboratory. It seems clear from our data that the most difficult career transition to make, in the 1970's, was the one between the postdoctoral or other temporary position and a permanent or potentially permanent position. Our ques- tionnaire revealed information (Table 6.3) about those who were postdoctoral recipients or research associates in 1977/1978 and 1978/1979. We asked department chairmen the status of these persons in January 1980, a time interval such that the Persons had some opportunity to attempt to obtain a permanent position. The "probably permanent elsewhere" category includes those who took positions in industry. Most of the postdoctoral recipients and research associates were still in astronomy. In contrast, the transition between a tenure-track position and a tenured one proved considerably easier. In January 1980, we asked department heads and group leaders what had happened to those who were in tenure- track positions in 1973/1974 and 1974/1975. ~ , . 85% were still in astronomy, with rounded figures as follows: 43% tenured in the same department 1096 tenured in another department, in astronomy 9% civil servants 3% otherwise permanently employed in astronomy 9% research associates (including one postdoctoral recipient) 6% contract employee

368 TABLE 6.3 Positions of Postdoctoral Recipients and Research Associates after 2 Yearsa Postdoctoral Research Recipients Associates Number in sample 165 144 Percent who are No longer in astronomy 7 4 Tenure or tenure-track 15 8 Civil servant 7 3 Probably permanent elsewhere 2 3 Visiting faculty 4 1 Research associate 16 73 Postdoctoral recipient 36 4 Contract employee 6 3 Unknown 8 1 Totals may not add to 100% because of rounding. 6% still employed in astronomy, unknown employment status 15% were no longer in astronomy. Thus 64%, or 139 people in the sample, had achieved permanent employment in astronomy. We recognize that there are uncertainties in Figure 6.4. We believe the proportions at the end of the pipe- line are reasonably well established by our follow-up surveys, in particular those of the classes of 1970 and 1975. C. Trends With Time We use our follow-up studies to examine changes in the shape of the pipeline during the past 10 years. These studies have the disadvantage of examining people in various career stages. While it might be possible to examine the location and employment of people a specified number of years after receiving the Ph.D. degree, this would be difficult to do consistently. Furthermore, the job crisis in its present form--the presence of a large number of astronomers in temporary positions--has emerged

369 only relatively recently, and studies of where people were 5 or 10 years ago would be uninstructive. With this caveat, we examine time-dependent trends. 1. Is There a Job Crisis? Our studies show that approximately one quarter of the astronomers receiving their Ph.D. degrees in the years 1959-1961 and 1964-1965 have left astronomy (Figure 6.5). These numbers form a baseline, since those astronomers faced a job market unconstrained by economics or demog- raphy. The difference in the fraction leaving astronomy for the classes of 1959-1961 and the more recent group is not statistically significant. What has changed are the types of positions occupied by those remaining in astron- omy, if we include the percentage who are in academic positions that are not in the tenure track. No one from the classes of 1959, 1960, or 1961 has such a position; all in academia are professors or associate professors and presumably have tenure. (Those with mailing addresse s at NASA laboratories might be contract employees or might be civil servants, and so it is hard to find out what the parallel curve for government laboratories would look like.) The percentage of people in non-tenure track positions has been rising sharply. Our questionnaire demonstrates the extreme difficulty of moving from a tem- porary position to a permanent or potentially permanent (tenure-track) position. Thus the "crisis" can be de- scribed as follows: persons with Ph.D. degrees in astron- omy are not leaving the field in unusual numbers, but they are in temporary positions rather than in permanent ones. Only if all of those in the pool of temporarily employed astronomers end up with permanent jobs in astronomy can one say that the attrition of people from the field is normal. A phenomenon of the 1970's has been the growth of this reservoir of temporarily employed people. How satisfactory are these non-tenure-track positions? A definitive answer is not possible. About a quarter of the people in the pool of temporary employees have' in fact, some explicit guarantee of job stability--some well defined parallel track. For some unknown and unknowable additional fraction, the institutional climate and confi- dence in institutional leadership makes their positions satisfying even in the absence of explicit guarantees. However, nearly half of the people in this pool are in extended postdoctoral holding patterns or are in visiting -

370 00 80 60 40 20 o ~4 4/ 960 AT 965 1 970 1 975 YEAR FIGURE 6.5 The dimensions of the employ- ment problem. Open circles, percentage of those receiving a Ph.D. degree (still liv- ing) who are still in astronomy; T. per- centage of those in academia who are in nontenure track, possibly temporary posi- tions; 4, percentage of those in academia who are in 4-year colleges versus year Ph.D. degree was received. Those who obtained the Ph.D. degree in 1970 would normally be pected to have obtained permanent positions by now. faculty positions, and some others are in temporary research-associate positions. Our proposal for the creating of an increased number of stable research associate positions with professional stature equivalent to faculty positions addresses this problem. Why does astronomy have a job problem, when the prob- lem in physics is apparently easing (Grodzins, 1979)? First (Figure 6.6), the number of physics degrees awarded

371 has declined by one third since its peak in 1970, while the number of astronomy degrees awarded has remained about 150 per year throughout the 1970's. Second (Figure 6.7), astronomers find a less natural home in industry than physicists do. Physicists who work for industrial firms still consider themselves to be doing physics. Astrono- mers in industry who do astronomy generally work for companies with income from federal grants, rather than from product sales, and they thus have a future that depends on federal funding for astronomy rather than on the general state of the economy. 11 o llJ :E is _ LLI Ct 10004 _ _ 100 - ~- ~ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1966 1968 1970 1972 1 974 1 976 1978 YEAR OF DEGREE FIGURE 6.6 Number of degrees awarded per year in all physical sciences (circles with dots); source: NRC Summary Report: 1978 Doc- toral Recipients for United States Univer- sities, 1979); physics (filled circles) and astronomy (open circles). Sources for physics and astronomy are given in Appendix 6.A.

372 it< 74/5 75/6 76/7 77/8 YEAR 50 50 _-X~ / ~ x— Z ~ tar 2 a _ CL . O 74/5 75/6 7677 7 7/8 Y E AR FIGURE 6.7 Post-Ph.D. employment patterns for astronomy Ph.D.'s (left) and physics Ph.D.'s (right). Open circles, postdoctoral recipients; X's, "accepted employment"; filled circles, seeking employment. Circled dots give the percentage of those employed, plus postdoctoral recipients, who are in industry. 2. The Changing Relationship between Physics and Astronomy Figure 6.8 illustrates some additional time-dependent trends that point to a growing closeness between physics and astronomy. An increasing number of astronomy Ph.D. degrees are being awarded by departments in which physics and astronomy are combined; in 1960 only 8% of the degrees were from physics or physics and astronomy departments, while in 1975 about one third of the Ph.D. degrees were awarded by such departments. It is not known what per- centage of those degrees from physics departments involved separate qualifying examinations and training similar to that of graduate students in astronomy departments. Figure 6.8 also shows that an increasing fraction of academic astronomers are working in departments that are physics departments by our definition. Of the class of 1959-1961, some 70% of those in academic positions are in separate astronomy departments; of the class of 1970 (who for the most part have found stable, permanent positions), only one third are in separate departments. The future welfare of those who are in physics departments generally depends on their relationship with a department chair- person who has not been trained in astronomy. The physics and astronomy departments in a number of institutions have merged in recent years. Another change in the relationship between astronomy and physics involves the mobility between these fields. When astronomy manpower studies began in the early 1970's,

373 there was a short-lived migration of physicists--defined as people with doctorates and thesis research topics in an area other than astronomy--into astronomy. This migration was a temporary phenomenon e Finally, we complement the data of Figure 6.6, which shows recent numbers of degrees in astronomy and degrees in physics, with Figure 6.9, which presents the same data over a much longer perspective. Figure 6.9 is an update of Figure 9.8 of the Greenstein report. Those authors pointed to the very different slopes in the two curves of Figure 6.9 in the time interval 1960-1970 but pointed out that this trend "only brings the field into approximate equilibrium with the average 7% growth in other sciences, 80 LL CI LLJ CL 60 of To o CL lit :~ 20 1 1 1 1 /~ // my/ // p 1 1 1 1 o 1960 1965 1970 1975 YEAR OF PH.D. FIGURE 6.8 The relationship between physics and astronomy. Open circles, number of departments actually awarding Ph.D. degrees in a particular year; boxes, percentage of degrees awarded by Physics or Physics and Astronomy Departments; boxed crosses, per- centage of graduates currently in academic positions who are in Physics or Physics and Astronomy Departments.

374 1 000 111 ~ 100 LO o z 10 , ~ - r: f—~ PHYSIC / ASTRONOMY if' 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 YE a R FIGURE 6.9 Ph.D. degrees awarded in physics and in astronomy as a function of time. The spurt of Ph.D.'s in astronomy in the 1960's simply restored the traditional percentage of astronomers with respect to physics. However, there has not been the same decline in Ph.D. degrees awarded in astronomy in the 1970's as has occurred in physics. almost restoring the 1920's ratio of one astronomy Ph.D. being awarded for every ten physics Ph.D.'s." Figure 6.9 (and Figure 6.6) show that since 1970 we have returned, roughly, to that historical balance.

375 3. What Happens to Those Who Leave Astronomy? m ose who leave astronomy generally do so a few years after the receipt of their Ph.D. Figure 6.10 shows the age distribution of those who let their membership in the AAS lapse between 1974 and 1978. The average age of Ph.D. recipients is approximately 30; evidently, 10 years after receipt of the Ph.D. degree someone still in astronomy is reasonably well established in the field. In conducting our follow-up studies, we located sev- eral people who had received Ph.D. degrees in astronomy and are now working in other fields. Some representative occupations are plasma physics, the Peace Corps, the U.S. Army, computer programming, nuclear reactor analysis, bio- medical statistics, oil company employees, remote sensing, president of a software company, president of a firm An o ~ 15 LL o 20 10 _ I1J in 5 _ ~,1: o ' '' ' 1 ' ' 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ' ....... 25 30 ~ I r I I I I I I I I I ~ I 35 40 45 50 AGE AT DROP FIGURE 6.10 American Astronomical Society (AAS) dropouts who left the society between 1974 and 1978. The AAS lost 320 members, of which 52 were of unknown age. The distri- bution by age of the remaining 268 is shown. These data may include some cases for which astronomers have died and the Society was not notified.

376 making diffraction gratings, head computer operator, teaching high school, rabbinical student. Evidently, Ph.D. astronomers are able to use their training in a variety of occupations. 4. Who Pays Astronomers' Salaries? More than half of the astronomers who obtained their Ph.D. degrees in 1970, and who are currently working in the United States, receive their salaries from federal research funds. This does not include any allowance for academic summer salaries or for consulting. The trend is shown in Figure 6.ll. m e most recent data point of course includes a number of persons who have not yet Found permanent positions. The trend, however, is clear and 80 60 111 t~ 40 I1J 20 o - - ~ [ 1 1 1 1 1 1960 1965 1970 1975 Y EAR FIGURE 6.ll The fraction of astronomers currently working in the United States who receive their salaries from federal research funds as a function of the year in which they received their Ph.D. degree. Note the increase with time.

377 will be regarded by some as disturbing. The present report shows that new openings funded privately will be fewer still in the future, so the trend appearing in Figure 6.11 will continue, and indeed our recommenda- tions, if followed, will sustain the trend. We see no realistic alternative to our recommendations, however. 5. me Future How will the pipeline picture appear when the next decade review examines education and employment in the 1980's? There are some strong demographic trends that will dras- tically reduce the number of traditional positions that astronomers entered in the 1970's. The decline in the number of university students will make academic jobs exceedingly hard to find. Simple models, in which astronomy departments grow or shrink in direct proportion to student enrollments, predict zero growth in the 1980's. Nonacademic astronomers depend on the federal government as the ultimate source of salary dollars. We cannot forecast federal research budgets but find it hard to imagine that a net flow of 28 people per year into fed- erally supported research positions can continue through the 1980's. The trials of the 1970's, such as they were, stemmed from a slowing in the growth rate of academic enrollments. In the 1980's, enrollments will probably decline, producing a shortage of academic positions. As tronomy is particularly vulnerable to this problem since very few astronomers are near retirement age. In summary: Employer Estimated Annual Openings 1970's 1980's Faculty positions 32 Fewer than 5 Government laboratories 13 Uncertain Federally funded R&D centers 15 Probably few Industry, doing astronomy 3 ? Foreign 6 6 Parallel track, academic 6 ? Totals 75 Uncertain Ph.D. production rate 150 Not less than 100 for 1980- 1985 (see Appendix 6.A)

378 The numbers listed here are merely projections rather than predictions. Hey are based on what we know now con- cerning the future trends of academia. It is possible that there may be some new sources for astronomy jobs. We point out that astronomy is now a considerably larger field than it was several years ago. Creation of a few new jobs a year by the expansion of one or two departments will be insufficient either to provide the necessary research vitality or to provide a viable career path for a substantial fraction of Ph.D. recipients. ~ We explore a number of the limitations of our projections below. Looking further ahead, we foresee that retirements will increase rather dramatically in the mid to late 1990's. If talented young people are convinced that there is no future in astronomy, then they will go else- where. Long-range planning is essential, because the training of an astronomer, including the postdoctoral stage, takes 7 to 8 years. Hose who are to be hired in the mid to late 1990's will be entering graduate school in the late 1980's, and so the policies and practices of the 1980's will determine the health of the field for some time to come. 6. Causes of the Problem Figure 6.12 illustrates the basic problem that academic administrators in all fields, including astronomy, must face. The bulge produced by the baby boom has now worked its way through college, and the traditional college-age population must drop (Cartter, 1976; Scully, 1980). The Ph.D.'s who are to retire in the 1980's are few, since they were produced in the World War II era, and the poten- tial students of the 1980's are also few, since they are the children of those who were not yet born during the World War II era. m e baby boom is working its way through the demographic pipeline and is perturbing various socioeconomic systems as it progresses; the world of higher education is to suffer in the 1980's. None of the numerous studies of this phenomenon failed to reach this conclusion (for references see Commission on Human Resources . 1979, pp. 28-32); the best that can be hoped for is that various ingenious marketing strategies will cause enrollments to level off rather than decline (for a review, see Magarell, 1980). Can astronomy somehow manage to avoid the effects of this "demographic depression?" The NRC Commission on . . . . . _ ~ , , . .

379 z 20 o J ~ _ cc In 15 o Z ~ o O J J J O — ~ ~ 10 Cot 1 0 5 I I T P°~\ ~ ~ ~ _ -0E / hem . 1 1 1 1 1 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 YEAR FIGURE 6.12 College-age population in the United States for the remainder of the century. Source: Statistical Abstracts of the United States, 1978, page 6. Series III represents 1.7 births per woman and most accurately reflects the birth rates through the late 1970's; it thus represents the true growth pattern through the mid 1980's. Series II represents 2.1 births per woman. Human Resources offered little hope for individual fields: "Individual fields or types of institutions may buck the trends by getting a larger share of the avail- able students, but realistically such fields and institu- tions ought to think in terms of avoiding enrollment declines rather than expecting significant sustained growth in student population" (Commission on Human Resources, 1979). In fact, astronomy may be worse off than other fields. Physics and mathematics are widely cited as fields with immediate manpower problems. Figure 6.13 illustrates relative age distributions of astrono- mers and the physics/astronomy community considered as a whole; astronomers are, in general, younger. The most telling information is provided in Table 6.4. Who will retire in the next 15 years to make way for the younger people? In mathematics, 16.3% of the profession is over 50; in physics, 23.8% of the profession is over 50; and in astronomy, only 13.7% of the profession is over 50. Astronomy will be more seriously affected by the demo-

380 35 30 25 20 5 0 ~ . AST R ON O MY - 11 ~ ~^ PH YS I CS I ~ \ \ 1 b \ \ ~ -\ \q ~ \ me . ~ 25-29 1 35-39 1 45-49 1 55 -59 1 65, + 30- 34 40-44 50-54 60-64 AGE FIGURE 6.13 Age distribution of employed Ph.D.'s in 1973 (astronomers, Cowley et al., 1974; physi- cists, Porter, 1974). graphic depression because there are fewer astronomers near retirement, in proportion, than there are in any other subfield. It is worth exploring further the manpower demands produced by the demographic depression. Astronomy is such a small field that small perturbations in other fields, particularly physics, can produce large effects. Consequently, it is only worthwhile to produce a simple model (Figure 6.14). We assume that the number of astron- omers in academia will follow enrollments. Extrapolating from 1978, when 1850 astronomers were employed in faculty positions, we assume that the number of astronomers grows

381 and shrinks with total college enrollments. Our model predicts 40 astronomy faculty positions in the late 1970's, in rough agreement with the actual number of 30. Enrollment projections and the net demand for astronomers is shown in Figure 6.14. m e net demand is plotted as a 3-year trailing average to smooth out fluctuations and to reflect the fact that responses tend to lag market stim- uli. In Figure 6.14 we also show the number of retire- ments in academia (assuming retirement at age 70; see below), assuming that the ratio of academic astronomers to total astronomers is independent of age. Not plotted in Figure 6.14 is the number of positions that will open up as a result of the deaths of astronomers who are cur- rently working in academia. Cartter's (1976) mortality rate of 0.62%, applied by him to faculty in general, would indicate that about 11 astronomers currently working would die over this period. According to this simple model, the term average demand for academic astronomers in the years 1984 through 1994 is exactly zero. In practice a few positions can be expected from such things as departure of tenured people TABLE 6.4 Age Distribution of Full-Time Faculty at Ph.D.- Granting Institutions, by Field of Science and Engineering, 1977 Percentage of Full-Time Faculty with Age (%) Greater than 60 56-60 51-55 Steady state 9.2 12.3 13.0 All fields 5.5 8.1 11.5 Mathematics 4.5 4.2 7.6 Physics 3.3 7.0 13.5 Chemistry 8.0 8.0 8.5 Earth sciences 7.4 7.0 14.0 Engineering 4.0 7.8 13.2 Agriculture 7.5 14.2 14.0 Biosciences 5.9 8.0 12.1 Psychology 4.7 6.6 9.9 Social sciences 6.2 8.8 11.1 Astronomy (1978) 3.5 2.6 7.6 Sources: All but the last line: Commission on Human Resources (1979), p. 21; last line; age profile of AAS members advanced to 1978 from A. Cowley et al. (1974).

382 50 In z _ ~ ° 25 0 ° J ~ at Z Z — llJ ~ ~ ~ -25 z — -50 _ ~ j' ' ~ /// . _ iN 7 . 1 1 1 1 1 1 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 FIGURE 6.14 Future openings for academic astronomers (open circles), according to our simple model. The dashed line shows the expected number of retirements. for government or industrial positions and from the geographical fluctuations in academic openings. Because of the tenure system, shrinkage is difficult (but not impossible, for departments can be and have been abol- ished). Thus expansion in demographically favored regions of the country may not be exactly balanced by contraction in the unfavorable regions. The preceding comments apply to an academic environment in which current trends persist. Changes may well occur, and a small field such as astronomy can be perturbed sig- nificantly by changes that will seem small when considered in the total academic context. We consider several per- turbations below. 7. Possible Grounds for Optimism Is the Demographic Depression Real? The prediction that enrollments will decline rests on projections of the number of people in the traditional college-age bracket of 18-21. It is quite possible that additional markets will be tapped (Magarell, 1980). However, even the most optimistic projections indicate that enrollments will be flat, leaving the number of academic openings at the level

383 of deaths plus retirements--20 annually. This is the most significant source for perturbations on the plus side for astronomy: astronomy departments that can successfully participate in efforts to tap additional markets for col- lege students will thrive. Retirement Patterns: A short-term fluctuation in the early 1980's may be produced by recent legislation, making it illegal as of July 1, 1982, for any academic institu- tion to force someone younger than 70 to retire. Retire- ment at age 70 has been assumed in our projections, for simplicity. Recent studies (Watkins, 1980; Consortium on Financing Higher Education, 1980) indicate that revisions in retirement legislation will cause faculty to retire later than they would have otherwise but not all will wait until age 70. m us the increase in retirements may occur a few years earlier than is shown in Figure 6.14. Aca- demic administrators are currently exploring retirement incentives. Astronomy will follow the rest of academia in this respect. Outward Mobility: Following Cartter (1976), we have assumed zero net outward mobility from astronomy into other professions. Astronomy, in contrast to the other physical sciences, is not practiced as a discipline in industry, although the skills that an astronomer possesses can be put to good use elsewhere. Our questionnaire did show that not many people had left tenured positions to depart for positions that lie outside the traditional astronomical ones. Regional Demography: One can argue that astronomers are well represented in the fast-growing Sun Belt for meteorological reasons and that a well-established depart- ment in a Southwestern state may grow considerably. How- ever, an American Council of Education Study (1979) indi- cates that seven states will experience enrollment increases: Vermont, Delaware, Idaho, Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and Florida. It is quite possible that the few departments located in these states will grow. Similarly, departments in the highly competitive private universities will be relatively immune from the demographic depression. One can hope that openings in these departments will not be offset by wholesale closings of departments elsewhere. We expect, though, that the number of positions that may be made available through regional demographic fluctua- tions will be few.

384 Growth of Astronomy at the Expense of lo; ~1 ~ - . Astronomy is a small discipline, so it is possible that it might grow significantly even if total faculty numbers remain unchanged. In major, research-oriented univer- sities, an energetic department chairperson can argue that the intellectual vitality of astronomy calls for growth in the size of an astronomy department even if the overall faculty size remains stable. In other universities, en- rollments are a significant factor in determining the size of a department, and astronomy enrollments (almost entirely in the introductory survey courses for nonmajors) have been increasing through the 1970's, as shown in Figure 6.1S. Can this sort of expansion provide a sig- nificant number of new academic positions in the 1980's? Outside the major research universities, some growth in the number of astronomers employed at 4-year institu- tions might provide a significant number of jobs in the 1980's, and in fact there was considerable growth in this The possibility of a continuation of area in the 1970's. 400 300 200 100 / o 73-74 75-76 77-78 79-80 ACADEM IC YEAR FIGURE 6.15 Astronomy enrollments in degree-granting 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 1 0,000 o departments in the 1970's. Circles, first-year graduate students (left-hand scale); squares, enrollments in introductory courses (right-hand scale). Open symbols, 56 consistently reporting departments (AIP publication R-151.15). Closed symbols, 69 departments (AIP publica- tions R-151. 15, R-151. 16, R-151. 17, and R-151.18B).

385 this trend underscores the importance of seeking ways to enhance the professional and research opportunities avail- able to people teaching at such institutions, many of whom have heavy teaching loads and are somewhat isolated. How- ever, there are some reasons for a certain amount of pes- simism regarding the continued growth of astronomy posi- tions in this area. Faculty in 4-year institutions are more concentrated in the assistant professor ranks than are faculty in universities; it follows that the number of retirements will probably not be large. Without some retirements, an institution has little flexibility to hire an astronomer even if the department head, dean, provost, and president want to do so. m e conventional wisdom has it that the 4-year institutions will bear a disproportionate share of the enrollment decline and will thus be particularly hard pressed to offer postions to astronomers. Another group of universities in which the astronomy faculty could grow are the major research universities. Fortuitously, two samples of major universities cited in the Commission on Human Resources (1979) report are places where the total faculty growth has been zero in the period fiscal year 1974 to 1978. Both classes of institutions showed some growth in the number of astronomers in faculty positions. (Research associates, postdoctoral recipients, and others without faculty titles were excluded.) In these institutions (Figure 6.16), the number of astronomy faculty increased from 183 to 207, an increase of 13% in 5 years. In these universities alone, 5 positions per year were generated from growth of astronomy at the expense of other fields. m e possibility for variation of the size of any individual department is illustrated by the fact that seven departments did shrink even though growth was the dominant pattern in the entire sample. It is difficult to extrapolate from this limited sample to academia at large. In the unlikely event that all institutions (not just this sample) were to continue to grow at this rate through the 1980's, extrapolating to the 1200 individuals currently in academic faculty posi- tions produces 30 new jobs per year, a substantial number but still insufficient to accommodate 150 new Ph.D.'s per year. This should represent an extreme upper limit to the growth that can be expected if astronomy is to grow at the expense of other fields. 4-Year Colleges: It is clear from the data cited in our report that a large number of astronomy students take

386 P R I VATE U ~ I ~ E R S I TY PUBLIC UNIVERSITY 5 O _ ~ 1 G1 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 FIGURE 6.16 Changes in the size of astron- omy departments. Number of departments is plotted against change in faculty size. Only tenured or tenure-track faculty are included in the definition of a depart- ment's size. Faculty sizes from AAS Commit- tee on Manpower and Employment, Guidelines to Employment Opportunities in Astronomy (1973) for 1973-1974 and from the AIP Directory of Physics and Astronomy Staff Members for 1978-1979. The lists of major public and private universities were taken from NRC, Research Excellence through the Year 2000, Table 13, for those institutions that have numbers tabulated in the sources listed above. Both of these groups of institutions experienced zero overall faculty growth in this period. Public universities include the Universities of California, Illinois, Michigan, Minnesota, Washington, and Wisconsin. Private univer- s ities include Brown, Caltech, Case, Cornell, Dartmouth, Harvard, MIT, Prince- ton, Penn, Rochester, Stanford, Washington (St. Louis), Yale, and Columbia. Johns Hopkins, Northwestern, and Oberlin, listed as "selected major private universities" by the NRC, were excluded because data were not available on Q consistent basis for the two time periods.

387 courses in 4-year colleges, where astronomers are under- represented in comparison with physicists. Our follow-up studies show that approximately 300 people with astronomy Ph.D. degrees are teaching in 4-year colleges. When an astronomy manpower problem was first recognized in the early 1970's, the 4-year colleges were singled out as a possible place where astronomers could be hired. In fact, astronomers were hired by these institutions; of the approximately 700 people in 4-year colleges identifying themselves as working full time or part time in astron- omy, 300 have Ph.D. degrees in astronomy. There are 400 possible openings. What tends to happen in 4-year col- leges (Ivey, 1980) is that a physicist becomes interested in astronomy, teaches the introductory course enthusi- astically, develops a large enrollment, and thus demon- strates to the institution that astronomy is a viable dis cipline. The next time a position is open, an astronomer is hired--particularly if an astronomer has visited the campus to show that astronomers can teach physics too. Astronomers who teach at 4-year colleges must be prepared to teach physics and take on relatively heavy teaching loads, and many are. However, an influx of astronomers to the 4-year teaching institutions will have no direct effect on research vitality, which is the primary focus of our principal recommendation. 8. Grounds for Pessimism: Possible Markets That Don't Exist - Junior Colleges: Approximately one fourth of all col- lege students are in 2-year institutions, but only a few percent of academic AAS members teach in such places. One could argue that here is a market for astronomy Ph.D.'s. However, two studies (Smith, 1979; National Science Foun- dation, 1978) show that only 12-13% of newly hired faculty have doctorates. The percentage in the physical sciences (26%) is significantly higher but is still small. Both studies cite several reasons for the reluctance of many 2-year institutions to hire Ph.D.'s. Demography and the Junior Colleges: The enrollment declines of the 1980's will, no doubt, be selective. The conventional wisdom (Scully, 1980) is that 2-year institu- tions will thrive, comparatively speaking. National Cen- ter for Education Statistics (1977) projections indicate that with static total enrollments, two-year institutions

388 will gain while 4-year colleges and universities will lose. Our projections assume that all institutions are affected equally. If the junior colleges survive better than the 4-year institutions and the universities, our projections will be overly optimistic. We made various separate explorations of different possible models and found that the essential features of the simple model ar preserved independent of the model details. Planetaria: One might think that, with the large num- ber of planetaria in the United States, there would be many openings for astronomers. However, most major plane- taria opened in the 1960's, and there is no immediately foreseeable growth in this field. m e total work force of professionals measured by the membership of the Inter- national Planetarium Society is 300, one tenth the number of astronomers. With retirement and mortality rates equal to those of research astronomers, this work force will produce two positions per year. While planetarium work is clearly essential to the welfare of astronomy in the United States, this field does not represent a numer- ically significant outlet for astronomy Ph.D.'s. Industry: Our surveys showed that some people with Ph.D. degrees in astronomy are employed in industry, doing astronomy. Perhaps the best known institution employing Ph.D. astronomers as astronomers is Bell Laboratories. However, the numbers are small--we esti- mate about 140 people employed in industry doing astron- omy, including some Ph.D. astronomers who have formed their own companies to do astronomy under contract to government agencies. Research associates who find their positions in academic institutions to be professionally unsatisfying may find this option attractive. But most people in industry doing astronomy are supported by fed- eral grants, and as such they form part of the group of astronomers supported by federal dollars--people working for NASA, for FFRDC's such as Kitt Peak National Observa- tory, as research associates in universities, and for their own companies. In light of this situation, we cannot encourage the expansion of graduate programs. A recommendation to hold the size of graduate programs and the number of Ph.D.'s in astronomy at a constant level was made by our prede- cessors (the Greenstein Committee); Figure 6.6 shows the result. In some cases departments have made explicit efforts to slant the training and, most importantly, the

389 attitudes of their graduate students into directions that encourage employment as a flexible applied physicist or computer systems analyst rather than as a narrowly defined astronomer. Because of the variety among graduate pro- grams, and the impossibility of enforcing any sweeping nationwide recommendation, we make no formal recommenda- tion concerning the production rate of astronomy Ph.D.'s. We offer the preceding comments as facts of which graduate school deans and prospective students should be aware. D. Research Trends The previous sections have pointed out the extremely pre- carious state of university astronomy employment. We begin this section on research trends by emphasizing the importance to the health of astronomical research of the health of university astronomy, by showing (Figure 6.17) the large percentage of the research work that is actually OTHERS 3% FIGURE 6.17 Institutions of residence for U.S. astronomers publishing in the Astrophysical Journal in 1977. A high percentage of astronomical research is done by university astronomers. (From Kuhner, 1978.) NASA 9~ . . NSF SUPPORTED OBSERVATORIES 10% UNIVERSITIES AND UNIVERSITY SUPPORTED OBSERVATORIES 78%

390 2.0 I .8 I .6 I .4 I .2 I .0 0.8 1 _ _ l _ ~7 /~ be INSTR - ENTS '+ ISbl STELLAR SYST. ^~a THEORY ~ PL NETARY /—,1/~- .~ SOURCES ' \ POSITIONAL ///V, ^+: ~ SOLAR ,~ EARTH W_ - - 69+70 71+72 73+74 75+76 77+78 FIGURE 6.18 Proportion of publications, in a number of general areas of astronomy, has remained fairly stable as astronomy has expanded. Normalized to 1969 and 1970. done by university astronomers. Figure 6.17, and several other figures, are taken from Kuhner (1978). Astronomy research has burgeoned in the last decade. While the number of astronomers (as measured by member- ship in the AAS) has increased by 36%, the number of pub- lished papers has increased by 69% (during the period 196 to 1978). The proportion of publications among different general areas has remained surprisingly stable (Figure 6.18), though the burgeoning and fluctuations due to the space program are reflected in the absolute and relative

391 numbers of planetary system and x-ray, extreme-ultra- violet, gamma-ray, and cosmic-ray papers. The percent- ages of the total papers that fall into various subfields are given in Figure 6.19. Figures 6.18 and 6.19 were gen- erated by surveying references in Astronomy and Astro- physics Abstracts. Whereas Astronomy and Astrophysics Abstracts classifies papers according to general area, regardless of how the observations were made, an alternative approach compares ground-based with space and airborne observations. The following analysis is excerpted from the analysis by 20 o, to ~ ~ PL ~ ETARY v\ '7 rev STA RS 10 _ _ STELLAR SYST. | ~ ~ _ <~ _ _ THEORY 5 \ / ~° ,I,NSSoT R U M E N.TS / ~ EARTH /+ I S M \t>~ x P O S I T I O N ~ L 1 1 1 1 1 1969~70 1971372 1973874 1975376 1977 378 FIGURE 6.19 Percentage of total number of papers that fall in various subfields of astronomy.

392 ~ .o 0.9- 0.8 o . 7 - Z 0.6- 1- 11 0.4 0.2 r, Kuhner (1978) of papers published in the Astrophysical Journal between 1965 and 1977. Figures 6.20 and 6.21 show the trend over this period by discipline area as defined by technique. The "unclas- sified theoretical" category includes papers too general to be assigned to one of the other areas. The apparent percentage decline in this category may be due to more specific identification in recent years, especially in the cases of the "new" fields of x-ray and cosmic-ray astron- omy. Note that the Astronomy and Astrophysics Abstracts groupings have x-ray papers under several disciplines, e.g., stellar systems, Sun, and theoretical astrophysics as well as x-ray sources. The Battelle report (Kuhner, 1978) states that the total number of theoretical papers, whether classified by discipline or not, increased by a factor of 3 compared with a factor of 5 for observational papers. This result differs from the steady percentage of theoretical astro- physics papers listed in Astronomy and Astrophysics Abstracts. A study based entirely on papers in the Astrophysical Journal is biased in that solar physics, planetary astron- omy, astrometry, and celestial mechanics are underrepre- UV/OPTICAL 0.5 _ ~~ RADIO ')65 68 71 74 1977 YEAR GRAVITY & . _~ RELATIVITY ~ COSMIC RAY —~ GAMMA RAY FIGURE 6.20 Breakdown by technique of papers published in the Astrophysical Journal. (From Kuhner, 1978.)

393 1 .o , . ~ ~ ` '.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.-.` o . 4~ 0.4 SATELL I TES 1965 67 69 71 73 75 1977 Year FIGURE 6.21 Breakdown by type of airborne or spacecraft platform, for papers in the Astrophysical Journal. (From Kuhner, 1978.) sensed in this journal. This is largely attributable to the fact that other journals cater to these particular disciplines, e.g., Solar Physics and Icarus. .- E. International Cooperation The desirability of international cooperation and compe- tition in astronomy is widely recognized. Above all stands the ideal that science should be international and beyond political boundaries and disputes. In addition, cooperation promotes contacts and understanding among scientists of different countries reduces redundancy and waste of limited, valuable resources. By sharing the large costs of modern astronomical facilities among several nations, instruments that might not otherwise be built are funded, and the total funding available for research may be increased. Competition among scientists spurs individuals to their best efforts, with the result that the best science gets done. In this section we examine the role of international cooperation and com-

394 petition in astronomy from a general perspective and evaluate its impact on the U.S. astronomical community. Ninety-three departments or groups responded to item 4 of our questionnaire, which investigated the number of U.S. astronomers involved in international activities. These 112 groups contain 1307 people, full time and part time, approximately half of whom are permanent employees. Of these 1307 people, 12% had traveled abroad for exten- sive visits (more than 1 month) during a recent 2-year period; 19% were taking part in cooperative projects with international participation; and 29% have collaborated directly with scientists from outside the United States. In addition, during the same 2-year period, these 112 groups hosted 129 foreign astronomers for visits of 1 month or more. me group members collectively made 148 trips to foreign observing sites [European Southern Obser- vatory (ESO), Anglo-Australian Telescope (AAT), Max Planck Institute (MPI), and balloon sites, for example) exclusive of trips to the Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO)]. m ese responses indicate a significant amount of international activity among U.S. astronomers. Partic- ularly noteworthy is the large number of astronomers who collaborate directly with scientists from other countries. m e circumstances regarding international cooperation in space are changing rapidly, as shown in Figure 6.22, taken from Recommendations on the Development of Space Science in the 1980's, prepared by the ESA Science Advi- sory Committee (1978). declined sharply. The relative U.S. role has Since international cooperation in the construction and use of astronomical facilities has increased, most U.S. space missions now have some degree of participation by other countries. Outstanding examples include the International Ultraviolet Explorer (IUE), which is jointly operated by NASA, the United Kingdom's Science and Engi- neering Research Council (SERC), and the European Space AaencY (ESA). and the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM), with O',t~ct-~nr1 i no Hymn] - I: i not '~de the partlalpatlon By the unltea Klngaom ana lne Necnerlanas. Other planned or existing missions with international par- ticipation include Space Telescope, International Solar Polar Mission, Infrared Astronomy Satellite Explorer (IRAS), OS0-8, HEAD-3, Gamma Ray Observatory (GRO), and the Spacelab facility and experiments. For some of these missions, the foreign participation consists of providing an experiment (OSO, SMM, HEAD-3, GRO), while for the others, part or all the spacecraft and/or support for operations is being provided. International participa- tion in these missions has permitted more science to be

395 1.0°/,[ 1 1 . . 1 . 0.5 ./@ 0.1'/. 1966 69 70 71 ESA MEMBER S!^TES/GLOB^L . jAPAN/N^SDA 72 73 ~ 1975 FIGURE 6.22 Percentage of gross domestic product devoted to space activities (ESA, 1978).

396 done than would otherwise be the case. U.S. funding alone would support four of the experiments on GRO; participation by the Max Planck Institute supports a fifth. The IUE and IRAS missions would not have been possible without international support. mere is a lesson to be drawn from the growing experience of inter- national participation in space missions, which applies to U.S. participation in foreign programs as well as vice versa. Integration and communication problems are mini- mized when the foreign contribution is a discrete piece, e.g., a whole instrument, as on GRO, or a whole space- craft, thus minimizing the number of interfaces needed. As construction costs have increased and the number of good ground observing sites has declined, cooperation in the construction and use of ground-based facilities has also increased. Prime examples of such cooperation are the observatories in Chile sponsored by NSF, ESO, and Hale Observatories, the Anglo-Australian telescope, and the Canada-France-Hawaii telescope. m ere is also considerable use of satellite and ground facilities by foreign visitors, i.e., astronomers not affiliated with institutions in the nations responsible for a facility. We examined the fraction of such "for- eign" visitors at ESO, Kitt Peak National Laboratory (KPNO)/CTIO, Max Planck Institute for Radiophysics (MPIfR), National Radio Astronomy Observatory, and Sacramento Peak Observatory for 1977-1978. At the U.S. institutions, either 10-15% of the observing time was allocated to foreign visitors, or 10-15% of the observer_ were foreign visitors (the different formulations depend- ing on the method of keeping statistics at the observatory involved). At CTIO the fraction of foreign visitors, defined as those observers neither affiliated with a U.S. institution nor on the CTIO staff, was slightly higher, 17%, owing to a relatively large number of observers from South American countries. At MPIfR, 36% of the observing time was assigned to users affiliated with non-German institutions, and 14% of the total time went to users affiliated with U.S. institutions. Only 3% of the observ- ing time allocated at ESO was assigned to observers from countries other than those in ESQ. We also examined the time allocation on IUE. AS before, a foreign or external visitor is one not associated with an institution in the particular national group in question, i.e., for the SERC time an external user is one not associated with a British institution. For NASA, SRC, and ESA, respectively, 13, 23, and 10% of the users are external users, where the total numbers of users are 176, 84, and 218, respectively. s

397 For the entire group of 478 IUE users, 13% have external affiliations, similar to the number of external observers at U.S. ground-based facilities. It is difficult to draw conclusions from these data; we simply express the hope that scientists in all nations will work toward the ideal of access for proposals of · . mer lit , regardless ot national origin. Informal cooperation with less-developed countries (LDC's) is in some ways similar to that with advanced countries involving such interactions as personal col- laborations between scientists and sabbatical visits, although in many cases the scientists from LDC's received their training in the United States. What can or should the United States do to increase the level of formal coop- eration with LDC's? Technology imposed from the outside has proved to be of little value. local interest to be encouraged. There must be some A project should help build up the local technology base and provide training as well. A useful approach would be to use astronomical projects as a catalyst to improve the technology base in LDC's. F. Astronomical Facilities The United States operates a number of major ground-based observing facilities for both radio and optical astronomy. These are, in general, high-performance, well-instrumented installations. The National Centers are totally supported by federal funds and open to all astronomers on a competi- tive basis. Others have a base of state or private funds that is often augmented by federal grants for specific scientific projects. A primary question is whether the current facilities are adequate to serve the needs of U.S. astronomers in the coming decade. To evaluate the adequacy of the observing facilities we look at the oversubscription, the ratio of observing time requested to time available. Although this ratio is subject to various interpretations, it is broadly indicative of the degree to which the facilities meet the needs. Table 6.5 gives the oversubscription rate for various astronomical facilities in the United States for 1978-1979. The major telescopes at KPNO are oversubscribed by factors of 2 to 3. The Very Large Array (VLA) and 11-m telescope of NRAO are in somewhat higher demand. Space observatories face similar problems. IUE can only accommodate one half the good observing requests, -

398 TABLE 6.5 Oversubscription Rates at Various Observatories Obse rvatory Time Requested/ Time Available KPNO 4 m, dark 4 m, br ight 2.1 m, dark 2.1 m, bright McDonald IUE Einstein NRAO VLA 11 m 91 m 3.2 1.8 2.7 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.0 4 .S 2.7 Queuing--no cutof f as was the case for the Einstein x-ray observatory. Lim- ited lifetimes for most space experiments contribute to the press for observing time. Moreover, the oversubscription rates probably under- estimate the true demand. Astronomers tend to be real- istic in their observing time requests. At Lick Observa- tory, which serves the whole University of California system, the requested observing time only exceeds the available amount by 30 to 50 percent. Yet actual demand must be higher than that figure since 34 California astronomers used facilities at KPNO during 1979. It is apparent that astronomers quickly learn to tailor their requests to the time available, and that oversubscription rates give a low estimate of demand for facilities. Nor are the high rates caused by astronomers over- estimating their needs for time. Using the 4-m telescope on Kitt Peak as an example, only 42% of the proposals and 31% of the requested observing time in the dark of the moon can be accommodated. This oversubscription is not caused by astronomers requesting much more time than they need in anticipation of being cut back during the time assignment process; the average dark-time proposal on the 4-m telescope at KPNO is cut from 4.5 to 3.5 nights by the time assignment committee, a relatively small factor.

399 The proposals are of good quality. m e intense com- petition for observing time at the major facilities has long since weeded out most of the truly noncompetitive proposals. At NRAO only 20% of the proposals are judged to be scientifically unworthy or unsuitable for the speci- fied telescopes by the telescope time-assignment commit- tee. Similar figures apply to KPNO. It is clear that astronomy in the United States is very much limited by the available observing time not by the quality or number of the scientists willing and able to work in the field. Yet despite the great pressures on it the National Center system seems to be working well. A profile of the National Center users demonstrates the following: 1. The Centers are serving a broad community. KPNO and NRAO each serve over 350 users from nearly 100 insti- tutions. A large fraction of users do not have NSF or NASA grants. Many users come from smaller, less research- oriented institutions. 2. Access to the National Centers broadens the re- search community. From 1974 to 1979 the number of dif- ferent institutions served by KPNO grew from 77 to 97. The percentage of those that do not have large astronomy programs grew from 36% to 43%. 3. The number of users has increased four times faster than the growth of the number of astronomers, as measured by membership in the AAS. 4. A significant fraction of the projects proposed are now tied to or arise from spacecraft observations. Where else can astronomers turn for access to tele- scopes? Numbers of university and private facilities provide a small fraction of their available time to visit- ing observers. However, lack of travel and publication funds and the low level of observing and technical support for visitors can hamper the effectiveness of these programs. Small telescopes at state and local institutions are available to local astronomers on a less competitive basi and for longer-term projects. These telescopes can play a valuable role but often lack the modern, efficient instru- mentation necessary to make them important research tools. The visitor or guest-investigator concept is embodied in the whole organization of the ground-based National Centers. It has been successful in making expensive, s

400 front-line research facilities available to astronomers at a wide range of institutions. We note that a strong trend toward this mode of operation is also being adopted by NASA in the management of space-astronomy facilities. The early spacecraft were operated entirely in the Princi- pal Investigator mode, with rather limited access to the general astronomical community. More recent spacecraft have extensive (in the case of IUE, exclusively) guest- investigator programs. The Space Telescope will have an even more elaborate arrangement in which the Space Tele- scope Science Institute will operate the telescope and administer the guest-investigator programs. Expanded access to first-rate spacecraft facilities has dramati- cally increased the number of spacecraft users over the past decade. There are two beneficial side effects. First, mission lifetimes have been extended, often far beyond the origi- nal design life and at an average cost of only $60,000 per investigator. This is an extremely cost-effective way to obtain valuable space data and should be encour- aged. Second, it has become possible for good scientists at smaller institutions to engage in high-quality, excit- ing research projects. The resulting diffusion of re- search effort and capability is beneficial to the health of astronomy in the United States. G. Public Communication This section is not meant to be exhaustive, since a brief list of the ways in which astronomy is communicated to the public will suffice as a guide to astronomers seeking to become active in this area. Individual aspects of public communication are discussed sequentially in the remainder of this section. 1. Planetaria - There are approximately 1000 planetarium facilities in the United States, most of them in high schools. It is not known how many of these facilities are in active use. The total includes 26 major planetaria--those with a seating capacity exceeding 200--all of which are in active use; each of these generally has at least one full-time person engaged in the task of communicating

401 astronomy to the public. millions. 2. Magazines Total attendance is in the Total circulation of magazines such as Astronomy, The Griffith Observer, Mercury, Sky and Telescope, and Star and Sky, is approximately 0.25 million (personal communi- cation from A. Fraknoi, Astronomical Society of the Pacific, 1980). The general science magazines (American Scientist, Omni, Science News, Science 80, Scientific , American, and Smithsonian) also include articles on astronomy, thus reaching the scientifically literate public. Articles on astronomy-related topics also appear in other more general magazines such as National Geo- graphic and Natural History. 3. Books m ere are a number of books, written by astronomers and nonastronomers, that appeal to the educated layperson. m e success of these books shows that book writing is a viable channel of public communication. 4. Media TV specials on science, and series such as Carl Sagan's "Cosmos," are probably the most visible public communica- tion efforts in this area. In the 1978-1979 season, 20 different programs were presented by the Public Broadcast- ing Service, several involving astronomy. The commercial television networks are less active, but astronomy is still visible; e.g., CBS's "Universe," a science series that ran in 1981-1982 and ABC's "Infinite Horizons: Space After Apollo." A radio series produced by the McDonald Observatory, "Star Date," is heard on more than 400 stations nation- wide and is available in Spanish (Byrd, 1979). In addi- tion, many radio stations with a talk-show format fre- quently interview local astronomers. The "Science Times" Tuesday section of The New York Times often contains astronomical news items. It is our impression that astronomy is well represented in news- papers in comparison with other sciences.

402 5. Evening Programs Many astronomy departments have "open night" programs, during which the public is invited to use telescopes based on a university campus. The OEP Panel commends those departments that have open night programs and urges others to establish them. 6. Public Lectures Many organizations want speakers on a variety of topics. Astronomers often speak before such groups. Such talks are particularly valuable in that the audience is composed of people who are not normally reached by magazines and lectures aimed at those who already know about astronomy. The level of such activity could be increased if astron- omy departments and other organizations set up speakers' bureaus. Groups wanting speakers often do not know how to find an astronomer who will talk to them. The Harlow Shapley Visiting Lectureship program con- ducted by the AAS and the Morrison Lectures of the American Physical Society, are examples of ongoing programs conducted by professional societies. 7. Amateur Activities Astronomy possesses an asset that few other scientific fields have: a group of enthusiastic, excited amateurs, extremely interested in bringing astronomy to the public. Amateur astronomers have long been active in hosting "star parties" in which public viewing of the sky is the primary focus. Amateurs have also sponsored a National Astronomy Day annually since 1973. Experience has shown that this event has been particularly beneficial in bringing astron- omy to an audience that had never been previously inter- ested. The support of such activities by individual astronomers and by the professional societies takes relatively little time and produces enormous dividends. Another aspect of public communication is the educa- tion of nonastronomers. Astronomy courses for nonspecial- ists are given at a wide variety of levels. In many cases, the teacher is not someone trained in astronomy. An estimate of the level of activity in this area is provided by textbook sales figures. Reports differ on total sales of introductory texts, but informed estimates

403 range from typical values of 200,000 per year up to 400,000 per year. However, only 33,348 students take courses in the 69 departments listed by the AIP as giving some kind of astronomy degree--38 separate astronomy departments and 31 combined departments named "astronomy and physics departments (Ellis, 1979). An additional 58,672 students are in introductory courses in physics departments with graduate programs. The remainder--the majority of astronomy students--are taught in the under- graduate colleges and junior colleges, often by instruc- tors without any formal background or training in astron- omy. If the annual enrollments of 200,000 per year or more continue through the 1980's, at least 2 million people will have been exposed to astronomy through this means. It is important for departments and professional organizations to ensure that these courses are taught well. At the very least, these 2 million voters should remember astronomy as a fascinating human venture rather than as the least painful (or least difficult) way to fulfill a science requirement. While no formal surveys have been done, our impression is that student response to these courses has been good. Certainly their high enrollment in the face of competing courses offered by other science departments in search of students to popu- late their courses is encouraging. H. Funding Trends 1. Introduction m e health of astronomy can be measured by a variety of means. However, one must first ask: Should it be healthy? We believe the answer to be an unqualified yes since astronomy makes fundamental discoveries about our Universe, its energy and matter, its origin and evolution, and the basic laws of physics governing its behavior. The theoretical underpinning is moving along in good synchrony with new observations, advanced technology for detectors and data processing has advanced at a timely rate, and access to space for astronomical observations has become almost routine. Thus, we judge astronomy to merit, in a competitive world, a significant investment in terms of people and financial resources. In this section we treat the financial resources with the aim of establishing what absolute dollar resources are going into astronomy and its component parts, what proportion

404 of research money astronomy receives (i.e., how well it competes), and whether the absolute and relative amounts are reasonable. Finally, we wish to see if funding trends have developed, consciously or otherwise, good or bad, which need to be brought to the attention of the funding agencies and the astronomy community. 2. Astronomy's Competitive Position Since the mid-1960's, astronomy's proportion of the nation's basic research budget has ranged from a high of 12% to a low of 6~. The prime sources of astronomy funding are NASA and NSF, typically 95%, with DOD and other agencies supplying a smaller albeit important portion (Figure 6.23). The important effect of nonfederal support of astronomy may be seen in Figure 6.24, from Kuhner (1978). "Other" includes private and state support. "None," means "none cited," and undoubtedly includes some work that was feder- ally supported but not acknowledged. "None" most cer- tainly does not mean that the work was unsupported; we judge that most of the support involved was actually private and state. Of the federal funding agencies, NSF, DOD, and others have contributed in a relatively stable way over the past decade, with the major fluctuations being caused by specific NASA flight projects. For example, the high occurred in 1969 during the funding of the Apollo Tele- scope Mount, and the low during the "restructuring" of the High Energy Astronomy Observatory (HEAD) series in 1975 (Figure 6.25). As proportions of internal budgets within NSF, astronomy has remained rather constant, at about 5% until construction of the VLA when it rose to about 6.5%. In NASA, the physics and astronomy program has steadily increased since 1965, with allowance for the HEAD drop in 1975, from 3% to over 9% of the NASA research and development (R&D) budget. This tripling of percentage represents a doubling of actual funding, the combination reflecting both a decrease in total NASA R&D over the period and an increased sophistication of spacecraft and importance of space astronomy. 3. NASA Funding for Astronomy Within NASA, most astronomy funding in the 1970's has come from the physics and astronomy programs. The pro-

405 300 250 200 150 100 50 o FEDERAL FUNDING FOR ASTRONOMY $ MILLION NASA NSF _ 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 / OTHER 70 75 80 300 250 200 150 100 50 o FIGURE 6.23 Federal funds for astronomy basic research as reported to NSF and compiled in Volumes 19-29 of Federal Funds for Research and Development. Fiscal year 1979 is the last year for which actual expenditures are reported. gram functions include supporting research and technology (SR&T), project funding (spacecraft development and mis- sion operations), and data analysis. These functions are spread in differing and changing proportions among a num- ber of program categories. It is almost impossible, and totally impractical, to derive accurate values for the functional categories. NASA funding for physics and

406 NASA TOTAL = 21 °'o / NASA / - NONE \ 22X \ NONE S3 ~ \ ~ NASA TOTAL = 32°' l NSF TOTAL = 36°' 42co ~ /4~/\ 1 1 ~ NSF 23% 7 °- \ OTH ER \_ 14~ J 1965 OTHER TOTAL = 276' NSr TOTAL = 49% NASA 17% 1977 ',i; 28°lo 1 0 °' \ OTHER gcO 70THER TOTAL = 24 FIGURE 6.24 Changes in the funding pattern for papers published in the Astrophysical Journal. (From Kuhner, 1978.) astronomy is shown in Figure 6.26. Over the past decade, the Sounding Rocket, Airborne and Balloon programs have had close to level funding in real-year dollars. These programs are typically used for experiment development, for first looks, and for observations that inherently do not require the lengthly observing times attainable from

407 satellites. The nature of these programs allows quick reaction to new findings and has served as a valuable training ground for graduate students to develop engi- neering skills needed in space-hardware construction. The impact of inflation on these programs has been strik- ing, there being a large component of petroleum-derived material in balloons, aircraft operations, and sounding rocket propellants. The Explorer program, currently at a level of $33 million, has provided a steady source of satellite hardware since the mid-1960's. Considered a "level-of- effort" program, it has experienced increased financial demands owing to increasing sophistication of satellites, including instrumentation; increased operating costs caused by longer orbital lifetime and associated data analysis; and increased R&D cost caused by more work done 10, . . .09 08 07 06 .05 04 03 _ 02 ~ , \~' \\ I .01— \! O ~ L I If I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 56 1(.14) l l l l \ "~\~` . ~ , it, NSF as: NSF TOT. l I .',-- 1 NASA PEA NASA ROD 1 1 1 1 1 1 75 80 60 65 70 YEAR FIGURE 6.25 Sources of funding for astronomy. Astronomy funding from NSF is plotted as a fraction of the total NSF budget (dashed line). For NASA the Physics and Astronomy program is plotted as a fraction of the Research and Tech- nology budget. These ratios are very sensitive to variation in the number of major construction projects. 10 .09 08 05 04 03 02 01 O

408 175 150 125 100 75 50 PHYS I C S AND ASTRONOMY BASELINE PROGRAM S MILLION , , Explorer =~ ~ 9;~ AT -ATn , _ . 25 _ ,/ / / / Mlsslon - / ops ~ / Data An I . ~ . _ S. Rockets Ba I loons O. ~~ 4 60 65 70 75 80 YE AR 175 150 125 100 75 50 25 O FIGURE 6.26 NASA physics and astronomy baseline pro- grams: cumulative fiscal year budgets for "level-of- effort" programs. Approximately one third of "Sounding Rockets" goes to experiment development. The Supporting Research and Technology-Advanced Technology Development (SRT-ATD) constitutes the bulk of university grants for nonflight research. The Data Analysis line typically supports data analysis in excess of that associated with the prime mission. The Explorer program initially con- tained spacecraft development, mission operations, and data analysis. With establishment of a separate Mission Operations and Data Analysis budget line in 1977, the Explorer line now contains only spacecraft development funds. All budget numbers are from NASA budget documents and are in real-year dollars. 1982 values are based on the March 1981 Reagan Administration revised budget submission.

409 on contract (versus in-house personnel, whose cost is separately budgeted by NASA). To alleviate the pressures in the Explorer and other programs, a Mission Operations and Data Analysis item was instituted in fiscal year 1977 so that now most of the Explorer budget goes into space- craft development. Data Analysis and Research and Analysis (grant fund- ing, formerly called SR&T) support were slowly decreasing in the late 1960's and early 1970's when a concerted effort was made by NASA to try to increase them to counter the effects of inflation and to take advantage of the new opportunities becoming available. The increases in the mid to late 1970's includes specific advanced technology development (ATD) for the Solar Maximum Mission (SMM) and Space Telescope in 1975 and 1976 and the first significant Spacelab definition funding ($3 million to $4 million per year from 1975 to present). A 82.5 million program in theoretical plasma physics was initiated in 1980. The increased spacecraft complexity and longer orbital lifetimes put extreme pressure on the NASA operations and data analysis budgets, resulting in the creation of a line item for these costs in 1977. All operational costs and data analysis occurring during the lifetime of space- craft including Explorers, is covered by this item (data analysis typically extending one year beyond end of mis- sion). The significant increase is attributable in large part to operations and data analysis for the HEAD'S, SSM, IUE, and ISEE, all but the latter being astronomy · . mlsslons . Figure 6.27 shows funding since 1961 of physics and astronomy flight programs, exclusive of Explorers. Note that all are astronomical except the Orbiting Geophysical Observatories in the 1960's and about 50% of the Spacelab payloads initiated in the late 1970's. The trends are obvious--a decreasing rate in the 1960's as Orbiting Solar Observatories and Orbiting Astronomical Observatories phased out and a significant increase in the mid to late 1970's occasioned by HEAD's, SSM, SST, International Solar Polar Mission, and Spacelab. 4. NSF Funding for Astronomy Figure 6.28 shows NSF funding since 1970 for the three major categories: Grants (the major source of university research support); Center Operations, which fund the National Centers (Kits Peak National Observatory, Cerro

410 1 200 150 100 50 o PHYSICS AND ASTRONOMY FL IGHT PROGRAMS S MILLIONS jam AOSO an,/ I I iSL \ A"/ \~_,/ \. \OSO/ \ \ in/\ ' ST OGO j\ \ \ — / - \ OAO \., .~.//HEAO \ 1 1 1 · ,iG>O. ,\y , 75 80 60 65 70 YEAR 200 150 100 50 o FIGURE 6.27 NASA physics and astronomy flight programs: cumulative fiscal year annual budgets for spacecraft developments. Spacecraft development includes mission operations and significant data analysis funding through 1977, at which time a new Mission Operations and Data Analysis budget line was established (see Figure 6.26). OAO (Orbiting Astronomical Observatory), OGO (Orbiting Geophysical Observatory), OSO (Orbiting Solar Observa- tory), AOSO (Advanced Orbiting Astronomical Observatory), HEAD (High Energy Astronomical Observatory), SSM (Solar Maximum Mission), SL (Spacelab payloads), ST (Space TeLe- scope), SP (International Solar Polar Mission), GRO (Gamma Ray Observatory). All budgets are in real-year dollars. 1982 values are based on the March 1981 Reagan Administration revised budget submission, which deferred the GRO, reduced SL, and canceled the U.S. portion of the International Solar Polar Mission. (1981 has not been changed to reflect the impact of the proposed 1982 revisions of the Carter submission.) All budget numbers are taken from NASA budget documents. Costs of launch vehicles and NASA manpower are not included.

411 1 1 10 9 8 CL o 7 6 3 2 ,~ a o 5 _ J4 - I I _ 1 MSF SUPPORT IN CONSTANT 1970 DOLLARS , GRANTS VLA \~ ~ NRAO - KPNO ,NAIC CTIO 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 .1 70 72 74 76 78 Fl SCAL YEAR FIGURE 6.28 NSF astronomy funding, 1970- 1982. The Grants program, National Center operations, and construction of major facil ities are plotted cumulatively (solid lines). me total NSF Astronomy Division funds are given by the upper line. The ratio of dollars for National Center opera- tions to dollars for research grants is plotted as a dashed line. The 1982 numbers are based on the revised budget submitted by the Reagan Administration in March 1981, which deferred construction of a 25-m millimeter-wave radio telescope. - Tololo Inter-American Observatory, National Radio Astron- omy Observatory, National Atmospheric and Ionospheric Center, and Sacramento Peak Observatory); and Facilities [such as Very Large Array (VLA) construction]. The trend for Grants and for Center Operations has been upward in real-year dollars. Center Operations represents new responsibilities including Sacramento Peak Observatory in 1977 and the initiation of VLA operations in 1978. The Facilities "wedge" represents mainly a major resurfacing

412 70 60 50 40 20 NSF ASTRONOMY DIVISION By - ~ MILL10~/ / / LOCI L/ / CENTER / OPERATIONS 30 __ ~ - OPS: '' ~~ _ GRANTS 10 ~ 01 _ 70 GRANTS 75 YEAR 3.0 2.5 2.0 I 5 0 80 FIGURE 6.29 NSF support is shown, in con- stant dollars, for the grants program, for the Very Large Array (VLA), for the National Radio Astronomy Observatory (NRAO), for Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO), for the National Atmospheric and Ionospheric Center (NAIC), and for the Cerro Tololo Inter- American Observatory (CTIO). of the large Arecibo dish in the early 1970's and VLA construction in the mid to late 1970's. With the comple- tion of the VLA, there is no major facilities construction in the NSF Astronomy Program starting in 1981 (initiation of a proposed 25-m millimeter wave telescope has been deferred because of federal budget restrictions). On a constant-dollar basis, the effect of inflation has been particularly severe. Figure 6.29 shows that while the Grants program has risen slightly in constant dollars, the Center Operations funds have stayed level or have actually decreased over the 1970's. m is trend is also reflected in the Center Operations to Grants ratio (see Figure 6.28), which shows a steady decrease from a high of 2.7 in 1970 to a low of 1.8 in 1978. A conscious

413 decision has been made in NSF to bring that ratio up to 2.0, a value reached in the proposed fiscal year 1981 budget. The trends in number of grants, average grant size, total grant dollars, and number of astronomers are shown in Figure 6.30. The number of astronomers has risen by 40% over the decade (judging from AAS membership), while the number of NSF grants rose by 60% (some of this in- crease represents a breakup of several large grants into a number of smaller grants); the average grant size rose from about $50,000 to about $80,000, and the total grant 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 o AVG. GRANT (a K) l 400(0) TOTAL GRANTS SM :~ / 20 - 350(0)) #BAAS MEMBERS;/ / 16 /~/T ~~ 4250(0) AIR _ / OF GRANTS - / , 1 ;1 ,l l, l Ail 1 -- 70 75 80 YEAR 60 65 200(0) OF GRANTS WAS (0) 150(0) 130(0) FIGURE 6.30 NSF astronomy funding compared with number of astronomers. The total grant funding and the number of grants are plotted in actual dollars. The average grant size shows a 50% increase from 1970 to 1980: the Consumer Price Index rose twice as rapidly during that time. Membership in the American Astronomical Society (AAS) is indicative of the number of capable research astronomers in the United States. Nearly all AAS members have a Ph.D. degree. During the last decade the AAS membership increased by 40%.

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