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414 program rose from $6 million to almost Sl9 million. m e impact of inflation, combined with the larger number of grants, results in a situation in which individual grantees are funded at almost the same effective level now as a decade ago. APPENDIX 6.A The Questionnaire Any statistical study requires some discussion of the methodology of the study and the uncertainties associated with it. In addition, supporting details such as the exact wording of the questions that were asked is on occasion useful to statisticians. m is appendix provides such details. The results contained here are separated from the main body of the report since they are not likely to be of broad interest. Further details can be obtained on request from Harry Shipman, Physics Department, Univer- sity of Delware, Newark, Delaware 19711. m e first two sections of the appendix describe in detail the two major studies we conducted in order to obtain new data: the questionnaire sent to all depart- ment chairpersons and group leaders and the follow-up study that determined the present location and profes- sional activity of those who received Ph.D. degrees in astronomy in various years. Subsequent sections present detailed justification and qualification of some of the results presented in the main text of the report. The questionnaire, analyzed in Table 6.A.2, was dis- tributed on January 4, 1980. The initial mailing was directed to 187 institutions; the list of institutions was provided by the American Astronomical Society. In May 1980, a follow-up letter was sent to some of the larger institutions that had not yet responded. A total of 128 separate replies from 122 institutions was received by mid-August 1980, when the final analysis of the ques- tionnaire was completed. m e 64% response rate compares extremely favorably with the response rate in other sur- veys, especially in view of the complexity of the ques- tionnaire. m e 1307 Ph.D.-level employees represent a somewhat smaller fraction of our estimated total labor force of 3000, probably because in some cases only cer- tain departments within an institution responded to our questionnaire.

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415 The analysis was carried out by the Battelle Columbus Laboratories and was done under the supervision of Mark Kuhner. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (SPSS) was used for the data analysis. In evaluating the results of any survey, one must bear in mind a number of limitations (see, for example, R. Ferber _ al., 1980). A principal concern here would be sampling. Are the 128 institutions that responded to our survey in fact representative of the institutions that employ American astronomers? One might, for example, imagine that the chairpersons of the larger astronomy departments would have considerably more difficulty in filling out this rather complicated questionnaire and that their response rate might thus fall below the response rate of smaller institutions. To test this conjecture, we divided the sample of responding institutions into a set of identifiable sub- categories and examined the institutional response rate in each subcategory. Results are presented in Table 6.A.1. The top 16 graduate programs were selected from the Roose-Andersen list (A Rating of Graduate Programs, American Council on Education, 1970). There is no appreciable difference in the response rate of various TABLE 6.A.1 Institution Rate of Response to Questionnaire by Type of Percentage of Number of Astronomers Institutional Employees in Represented Response Responding in Responding Subgroup Rate Institutions Institutions Government laboratories 67% (4/6) 237 46% FFRDC + nonprofit 60% (9/15) 223 57% Top 16 Graduate Programs 65% (11/17)a 112b 44%b TOTAL SAMPLE 67% (128/191) 1307 44% . Cone institution has more than one department offering graduate work in astronomy. These totals refer only to faculty in tenured and tenure- track positions .

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416 types of institutions. As a further check, the total num- ber of full-time employees working at responding institu- tions was culled from the questionnaires and compared with the total number of full-time employees in institu- tions in that category, determined from our estimate of 3000 total astronomers and the proportion of astronomers working in various places furnished by the most recent survey by the AAS Committee on the Status of Women (see below). These percentages, given in the last column of Table 6.A.1, again illustrate the consistency of our sampling procedures. There is one respect in which our survey proved to be an inadequate probe of the population of working American astronomers. We only distributed questionnaires to three industrial companies, one of which responded. Since many of the questionnaire items are inapplicable to private industry, we believe that for the most part this should not affect the validity of the conclusions that we have drawn from the questionnaire. We did take some measures to ensure that other poten- tial hazards of surveying were controlled. We did some limited pretests of this questionnaire on a small set of department chairpersons. Unfortunately, the design of the questionnaire form in Question 3 led to some poten- tially inconsistent results on the distribution of the Ph.D. thesis fields of currently working astronomers. We did send a follow-up letter to a limited set of the non- respondents to the questionnaire. The tabulation of the results was handled by an organization that has had exten- sive experience in dealing with this type of question- naire, and so we have confidence that the tabulations were handled accurately. Some spot checking of the accuracy of the tabulations was made. William Kruskal ("Taking Data Seriously, n in Chapter 6 of Y. Elkana, J. Lederberg, R. K. Merton, A. Thackray, and H. Zuckerman, eds., Toward a Metric of Science: The Advent of Science Indicators, Wiley, New York, 1978) lists a number of other shortcomings of surveys and takes care- ful aim at surveys conducted in connection with the work of panels such as the OEP Panel. Unfortunately, this interesting article came to our attention after the survey was completed. He mentions one potentially troublesome point--the definition of terms. We were careful to pro- vide a definition of the terms "postdoc" and "research associate" on the questionnaire; comments on several of the questionnaires indicated that the chairpersons had, in fact, read our definitions.

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417 TABLE 6.A.2 Analysis of Response to Questionnair e 1. Response to Question 1. Untenured, tenure- Research track employees Postdocs Associates Total M F ? Total M F ? M F _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ Is he or she still doing Y 209 188 15 6 150 142 7 1 122 16 astronomy? N 33 32 1 11 11 6 NA 2 2 4 4 If he or she is no longer working in your department Y 50 47 3 60 59 1 23 1 or group, did he/she leave N 44 41 3 19 19 9 voluntarily? (yes or no) NA 150 134 10 6 86 79 6 1 96 15 Research Field (see codes I 20 19 1 10 10 13 1 in key) C 43 39 4 45 44 1 18 4 G 27 24 2 1 15 14 1 6 2 ISM 38 34 3 1 21 18 3 7 2 P 20 16 2 2 9 9 25 S 72 65 6 1 38 38 18 4 HE 25 23 2 23 23 17 3 X 14 14 5 5 9 Sun 8 8 9 8 1 20 Male or Female? (respond M 222 222 157 157 128 M or F) F 16 16 7 7 16 NA 6 6 1 1 Was this person working full time? (yes or no) Y 236 220 13 3 163 155 7 1 126 14 N 4 1 3 2 2 1 2 NA 4 1 3 1 Research orientation T 62 59 3 43 41 2 18 4 (T = basic theory; 0 = M 45 41 4 34 32 2 38 3 observer; M = modeler or O 139 127 10 2 95 92 3 75 12 data analyst; X = other) X 9 8 1 3 3 9 PRESENT LOCATION (check one) a. in your dept. or group 144 129 10 5 79 72 6 1 92 15 Elsewhere (check appropriate line) b. university 33 31 2 42 42 12 1 c. 4-year college 7 6 1 7 7 d. junior college 2 2 1 1 e. government 9 7 1 1 4 f. federally funded research and development center (such as Kitt Peak, NCAR, etc.) 16 16 20 19 1 11 g. industry 15 15 8 8 4 h. planetarium or science museum i. in graduate or professional school preparing for another career 1 1 j. other (specify below) 9 7 2 5 5 3 k. unknown 6 6 3 3 2

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418 TABLE 6.A. 2 (continued) 1. Response to Quest ion 1. Untenured, tenure- track employees Postdocs Research Associates Total M F ? Total M F ? M F _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ PRESENT EMPLOYMENT STATUS (ck . one ) a. postdoctoral 1 1 60 55 4 1 6 b. research associate 19 17 2 26 2S 1 92 13 c. tenure-track but untenured 28 24 4 21 21 5 1 e. tenured or equivalent 116 103 8 5 3 3 3 2 f. civil servant 23 22 1 11 10 1 6 g. contract employee 14 14 12 12 6 h . probably permanently employed, but none of the above cate- . . . . . . . gories apply ( in industry, f or example ) i . unknown j. visiting faculty 21 21 9 9 4 14 14 6 6 3 1 3. We wish to characterize the composition and background of your department. (Total responses: 118) u, up _ up . ^ ~ ~ ~ ~ - O O u, ~ - a' . 1 `- 0" ~ s a ~ o ~ o ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ O o ~ S Z - Z - O U] U) O C,0 O4 JJ J-, ~ - ~ _ ~ I O O O ~1 0 - 14 0 N ,'5,, A, ,~ ~ a a ~ u' u' ~ ~ JJ ~ a) >, ~ 0 ~ 0 ~ U) s 0 s U) s 0 s ~ o En ~ ~ ~ Z P. ~ ~ Z pat O Z - Permanent Employees 658 93 412 101 125 12 40 Potentially Permanent ( tenure-track) 186 8 116 24 28 6 16 Postdocs 137 2 80 32 7 0 14 Research Associates 124 12 61 25 17 2 11 Visiting Scientists w ith permanent or potentially permanent pos i t ion e lsewhe r e 60 27 36 15 5 2 22 - TOTAL 1165 + 142 = 1307 (4496 of Ph.D. Labor Force) 4. Answer the following questions as they pertain to astronomers in your department and to the last two years . (Total responses: . . . . . . . . . 112) a. Approximately how many members of your department travelled abroad ( including Canada and Mexico) for extensive (more than one month) stays as visitors? 161 b. Approximately how many foreign scientists visited for more than one month? . 129 c. How many members of your department participated in joint space projects or other cooperative projects which had international participation? . . 244 d. How many members of your department have collaborated directly with scientists from other countries in research projects?....... . 383

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419 TABLE 6.A. 2 (continued) e. How many trips to foreign observing sites (such as ESO, the Anglo- Australian Telescope, MPI radio telescope, balloon sites, etc.) were made by members of your department? (Exclude trips to Cerro Tololo.) f. How many foreign graduate students in astronomy do you have? ..... g. How many astronomy graduate students from developing countries do you have?. 5. Estimate the number of department members who might be willing (for pay) to lead a summer tutorial for astronomers engaged in fulltime teaching. Such a program would involve the participants in small research projects which might or might not lead to a published paper, but would increase their contact with astronomical research.......... . 148 . 74 22 .... 194 6. Have any permanently-employed astronomers (tenured or equivalent) left your department or group within the last five years? If so, where did they go? (Total: 110). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yes - 46 No - 64 a. Are research associates able to apply for grants as principal investigators? If so, are there any restrictions on the types of proposals they can submit? e ~ Yes - 46 No - 34 e ~ Yes 7 No - 37 b. Are Assistant Professors (or equivalent) able to apply for grants as principal investigators? Yes - 91 5 c. Does your institution have any formal arrangements for a parallel track" in which the employment security and salary arrangements for research are explicitly delineated?. Yes - 18 No - 69 If so, how many department members fall into this category?.... If you have such arrangements and are willing to enclose a copy of the guidelines with your response, it would help us to develop a better picture of this emerging phenomenon. 8. Questions pertaining to graduate programs: a. Does your department grant Ph.D. degrees in astronomy? physics? . . . 25 .... Yes - 35 No - 76 Yes - 32 . b e If your department grants Ph e De degrees in astronomy, how many physics courses (l-semester or 1-term courses) are required for "~ rev n C. d. How many of your astronomy graduate students have ever outfit or rebuilt an instrument? .................... Do you specifically encourage astronomy graduate students to take courses outside of astronomy and physics?. . If so, give some representative examples. . Yes - 28 No - 21

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420 TABLE 6 . A . 2 (continued ) e. Are you experiencing increasing difficulty in obtaining good graduate students? . . . . . . . . . . Yes - 36 No - 19 f. Has your department limited the number of students it has accepted in direct response to limited employment opportunities?. . . . Yes - 19 No - 35 9. Some astronomers spend time in activities intended to bring astronomy to the general public (for example, giving public lectures, appearing on TV or radio shows, etc.) a. Do you feel that this kind of activity is a useful contribution to the community?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e ~ ~ Yes - 116 No - 1 b. Is this kind of activity considered to be a positive contribu- tion when promotion and tenure decisions are made? . . . . . . Yes - 79 No - 30 c. Would you recommend that a suitably inclined junior faculty member spend a small amount of time (2 hr/week or less) on this type of work? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yes - 93 No - 17 d. Would you recommend that a suitably inclined faculty member spend considerable (more than 2 hr/week) time on this type of work? Yes - 14 No - 90 COMMENTS:

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421 Key to Table 6. A . 2 Table 6.A.2 presents information gathered in our survey of institutions active in astronomical research. Each page of the questionnaire was headed with the words, ASHEN ANSWERING THIS QUESTIONNAIRE' PLEASE INCLUDE INFORMATION THAT PERTAINS ONLY TO THE ASTRONOMERS IN YOUR DEPARTMENT OR GROUP.. Question 2 of the survey dealt with funding trends and vulnerabilities, collected for the benefit of NASA and not of general interest. Question 1 was "We wish to establish what became of persons who were assistant professors (or equivalent) in your department or group in the academic years 1973/74 and 1974/75. We also wish to establish what has become of your nontenure track employees who were with your department or group in the academic years 1977/78 and 1978/79. Assign each person in these categories a numb bered column on this page and fill in the appropriate spaces with check marks or brief answers. If you need more space, make photocopies of this page of the questionnaire. n The following information was provided as guidance: "Research Field codes: I = instruments and techniques; C - cosmology, extragalactic objects, quasistellar objects; G = Galactic structure, stellar motions; ISM = inter- stellar matter and gaseous nebulae; P = solar system, space astronomy of the solar system (planetary); S a stellar atmospheres and spectra, stellar evolution, solar and stellar interiors; HE = supernovae, X, gamma, and cosmic rays, pulsars (e.g., high energy); Sun ~ solar; X = other. For the purposes of this questionnaire, a postdoc is defined as a position of limited duration which will generally not be renewed for more than three years. A research associate is supported by grants and is employed at least as long as an appropriate grant is available. Visiting faculty are in temporary teaching positions. n We provide as the first item of Table 6.A.2 the summary totals, as well as the breakdown for male and female subjects in each category. Questions 3 through 9 are self-explanatory.

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422 In summary, then, the results from the questionnaire should prove to reflect accurately the results that would have been attained with a comprehensive survey of the astronomers in this country, except for the lack of responses from industrial companies employing astrono- mers. Most of our questions did not address this small but interesting group. Some additional statistical analyses based on the ques- tionnaire appear in Table 6.A.3, which presents the dis- tribution of four categories of nontenured astronomers by research field, and in Table 6.A.4, which presents the distribution of three categories of astronomers by re- search orientation and sex. A few individuals furnished multiple responses to the questions on research field, research orientation, present location, and present employment status. Profiles of all the variables for page 1 of the questionnaire for the following subsets of data are available, but are not presented here: 1. Still doing astronomy (yes, no, no response) 2. Leave voluntarily (yes, no, no response) 3. Research field (9 categories) The Follow-up Studies: The usual approach to deter- mining the characteristics of manpower problems is to send questionnaires to a set of people asking their employment status. We did not follow this course for two reasons: m e AAS Committee on the Status of Women (CSW-AAS) had already done such a study, asking many (but not all) of the questions we would like to see answered. In addition, carrying out such a survey is rather time- consuming. We therefore took a different approach. Astronomy is still a sufficiently small field that astronomers can be located directly--through AAS membership directories, Astronomy and Astrophysics Abstracts, biographical dic- tionaries, or some other means. We used the names of astronomers who received Ph.D. degrees in astronomy as listed in the publication American Doctoral Dissertations and then sought to determine their present locations. The results of this study have been referred to in the main text; complete tabulations and a discussion of method- ology are presented here. The principal advantage of this approach is that there is no problem of nonrespondent bias because there are no respondents to questionnaires. This approach also cir- cumvents the difficulty of locating astronomers who have

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423 TABLE 6.A.3 Percentage of Astronomers in Various Research Fields Grad Research Students a Pos tdocs b Assoc iates b Tenure- Trac k Employee fib . Instruments and techniques Cosmology, extra- galactic objects, quasi-e teller objects Galactic structure, stellar motions Interstellar matter and gaseous nebulae Planetary (solar system, space astronomy of the solar system) Stellar atmospheres and spectra, stellar evolution, solar and stellar inter iors 6 6.1 9.7 8.2 21 27.3 7 9.1 S.6 17.6 11.1 13 12.7 6.3 15.6 6 5.5 17.4 8.2 22 23.0 15.3 29.5 High energy (super- novae; x, gaIrana, and cosmic rays; pulsars ) Solar 4 5 5 Other and no answer Ma 3.0 No. in respond ing 50 3 16 5 sample 6 13.9 13.9 10.2 13.9 3.3 6.3 5.7 144 244 From S. L. Ellis, 1978-1979 Graduate Study Survey, AIP. ~Other. includes 9% describing their research specialty as "astrophysics. n Uncertainties in the last three columns are roughly 4 percentage points for the larger categories. Totals do not add to 100 because in a few cases more than one f ield was listed. left the field; if one were to send questionnaires to such people one would need to know their present addresses. The classes selected are divided into four groups: the classes of 1959, 1960, and 1961, treated as a group; the classes of 1964 and 1965, treated as a group; the class of 1970; and the class of 1975. Groups of two and three classes were taken in the earlier years in an effort to assemble adequate statistics. For the purpose of this study, a "class" was defined as that group of people who

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424 TABLE 6.A.4 Percentage of Astronomers by Research Orientation and Sex Research Research Tenure-Track Orientation Postdocs Associates Employees Basic m eory 26.1 15.3 25.4 Observer 57.6 60.4 57.0 Modeler or 20.6 28.5 18.4 Data Analyst Other 1.8 6.3 3.7 Sex Male 95.2 88.9 91.0 Female 4.2 11.1 (16) 6.6 (16) No Answer 0.6 0 2.5 are listed in American Doctoral Dissertations as having received their Ph.D. degrees in any given year with thesis topics classified as astronomical ones. me numbers of people receiving Ph.D. degrees in particular years cor- respond quite well with the numbers of degrees per year listed in other surveys such as those conducted by AIP and NAS. Both U.S. and Canadian institutions were included. These classes were studied by using the membership directory of the AAS for the year 1978/1979 and the 1978/1979 Directory of Physics and Astronomy Staff Members compiled by AIP as primary sources. The job was simply one of locating each individual in one of these directories and determining where that individual was employed. In addition, Astronomy and Astrophysics Abstracts was searched in order to locate those individ- uals who are not listed in either one of the directories. The time periods covered in Astronomy and Astrophysics Abstracts were the last half of 1978 and the first half of 1979. For the class of 1970, the Science Citation Index, a publication covering 2572 journals, was surveyed as well. m e results of that survey revealed a number of people who have switched from astronomy into other fields and who are currently publishing in those other fields but did not reveal a significant number of additional people who are in the field of astronomy not disclosed by

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428 1979-1980, were AAS members. We found that 19% were non-AAS members; with this correction, the Ph.D. labor pool is (2460)/(1 - 0.19) = 3000. Porter (1974, report to the NAS COSPUP Manpower Committee) gave a somewhat higher figure of 27% non-AAS members based on the AIP National Register in 1973. Since the Register included graduate students, this figure may be unrealistically high. With Porter's number, the Ph.D. labor pool becomes 3300. We adopt an average number of 3000 Ph.D. astrono- mers for use in our report. There is an uncertainty of 10% in this number. There are, to be sure, astronomers without Ph.D. degrees, but it is unclear how many there are. The 1973 AIP National Register listed 593 non-Ph.D. degree holders as currently "primarily working in astron- omy." These presumably include graduate students, night assistants, some college faculty members, and some plan- etarium people, to list a few representative categories. It is our belief that the graduate-student component of that population is sufficiently large to argue that the non-Ph.D. component of the astronomy work force, while serving several important functions, is numerically small. We note that our circulation of a list of OEP Panel issues to department chairpersons and group leaders did not show any great demand for those with a masters' degree in astronomy. Our estimate of 3000 astronomers is somewhat higher than previous estimates. Porter (1974), working from a 1973 survey carried out by AIP, estimated a national popu- lation of between 885 and 1442 persons who are "astrono- mers" by various definitions. Even allowing for the limited response rate from the survey (between 70 and 90% depending on the type of respondent), and the growth in the profession since then (about 100 per year from the . . f^1 1~.. - =~,Aimc,\ ---I fir ~_~' , the number from the 1973 survey is difficult to reconcile with the OEP Panel's estimate. We have, however, used the broadest definition of "astrono- mer"--someone who is either a member of the AAS o is working in an astronomy department. We note as well that astronomers may identify themselves differently in re- sponse to different surveys. The 1978 survey of the CWS-AAS indicated that 92% of the women and 77% of the men respondents called themselves astronomers or astro- physicists (Bull. AAS 12, 624, 1980), but Porter (1980) found that only 60% of the AAS members identified them- selves as ~astronomers" in responding to an AIP survey. If the same bias applies to the AIP' S 1973 register, this could explain the large size of our estimate of the

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429 population--many astronomers probably identified them- selves as physicists in the 1973 register. In Table 6.1 of the text, the category ~business/ industry" was described as "private industry" in the two AAS-CSW surveys. "Governments includes state, local, and federal government in the surveys of physicists and astronomers and of all science and engineering doctorates. "Observatory or Research Institute" was described as "National Observatory or Laboratory" in the 1973 CSW survey; thus the apparent increase in the number of astronomers in this category is not significant. In the last two columns of the table this category also includes "Hospital/Clinic" and "Other Nonprofit Organizations. n The sources of the data in the tables are the CSW-AAS surveys (Bull. AAS 12, 624-635, 1980, M. H.-Liller, A. P. Cowley, P. W. Hodge, F. J. Kerr, and N. D. Morrison; and A. P. Cowley, R. Humphreys, B. Lynds, and V. Rubin, Bull. AAS 6, 412-422, 1974). The last two columns are from B. D. Maxfield, N. C. Ahern, and A. W. Spisak, Science, Engineering, and Humanities Doctorates in the United States: 1977 Profile, National Academy of Sciences, Commission on Human Resources, 1978). In order to check for possible bias in the surveys of AAS members, a survey was done of the AAS membership directory and the home addresses of various AAS members were classified. This study showed that the CSW-AAS study was correct. m e Number of Ph.D. Degrees per Year: We have made some effort to ensure that our data on number of Ph.D.'s being given every year, shown in Figure 6.6, were as com- plete as possible. Prior to 1970, the Department of Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW) was responsible for collecting these statistics and producing a publication entitled Earned Degrees Conferred. This was the primary source of data used by the Greenstein committee. m e Greenstein committee noted (pages 330-331 of Volume 2 of their report) that the HEW data were not always complete. AS a result, we checked a number of other sources. Examination of the publication American Doctoral Dis- sertations indicates that the HEW data for astronomy were reasonably complete for periods earlier than 1970. How- ever, a comparison of this source of data with the numbers from HEW indicates that, beginning in the early 1970's, the HEW numbers became very incomplete. HEW reports the number of astronomy degrees as falling in the range of 80-90 per year. However, as various committees studying the astronomy employment situation in the early 1970's noted (B. D. Lynds, KPNO, private communication; American

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430 Astronomical Society, Committee on Manpower and Employ- ment, 1974), the HEW data significantly understate the number of Ph.D.'s per year in the early 1970's, which is more correctly described as being in the range between 130 and 140. m us, following the year 1972, our data were based on those collected by the AAS Committee on Manpower and Employment and the data gathered by the Subcommittee on Manpower and Employment of the advisory committee for the National Science Foundation. We are grateful to B. D. Lynds for making these reports avail- able to us. For periods following 1976, the AIP institutional tabu- lations also appear to be complete. One must take a cer- tain amount of care in classifying astronomy degrees as is discussed below; however, upon comparing these numbers with data from other sources that were available to us, we concluded that the AIP tabulations provide a reasonably good count of the number of people receiving a Ph.D. in astronomy in any given year. To summarize the sources of our number of astronomy degrees prior to 1972, we used the data from HEW's Earned Degrees Conferred, except for the year 1970 when the num- ber from the institutional questionnaire distributed by the Greenstein group was available. In 1973 we used the number from the Commission on Manpower and Employment Guideline to Employment Opportunities in Astronomy. For 1974 and 1975 we used totals from American Doctoral Dis- sertations. For 1976 we used the number from the Subcom- mittee on Manpower and Employment Report to the Astronomy Advisory Committee, National Science Foundation. For 1977 and following years we used numbers from the AIP, includ- ing both degrees from separate astronomy departments and degrees with astronomy theses granted by physics depart- ments. We recognize that the sources for the 1970's are somewhat heterogeneous; however, numbers from other sources consistently provide values in the 130 to 160 range from the period 1975 to 1979. Astronomy Degrees, "Astrophysics Degrees, and Physics Degrees: In tabulations by various organizations as well as within the astronomical community, there is some debate on what constitutes a Ph.D. in Astronomy. The definition that we used required that the thesis topic of the . .D. degree should be an astronomical one, as reported by the department to the AIP. Any narrower definition would exclude some departments that grant degrees in physics but that are recognized as major astronomical research centers, such as the University of California, San Diego;

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431 TABLE 6.A.6 Types of Ph.D. Degrees Awarded in 1978-1979 Degree Title Astronomy Physics Ambiguous Department Type (AIP Classification) Separate astronomy Combined Physics Department Type (OEP Panel Classification) Astronomy Physics 79 62 16 74 12 71 76 81 Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); the Johns Hopkins University; and the physics departments of the University of Chicago and Princeton University. In order to explore this problem of definition, a considerable amount of analysis of the data reported in the AIP publi- cation Graduate Programs in Physics, Astronomy, and Related Fields, 1979-1980 (AIP Publication R205.5) was done. These analyses are summarized in Table 6.A.6. One can first classify a degree according to whether the department reports to the AIP that it grants degrees in astronomy, physics, or both. If a department grants both types of degrees, it is impossible to determine how many of the 1979 Ph.D. degrees were of either type, and these are listed as ambiguous in the table. A second classification follows the AIP classification of departments into three types, separate astronomy, physics, and combined. The definition of a combined department is not entirely clear, nor is it consistently followed by department chairpersons. In general, it is a department that calls itself a physics and astronomy department, and often it is a department that reports granting Ph.D. degrees in both physics and astronomy. However, there are a number of departments that would clearly fall within the spirit (if not within the letter) of this definition, such as those on the list above, and which are not included in the AIP list of combined depart-

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432 meets. This is the principal reason why the AIP total of astronomy degrees for the late 1970's falls below 100, while our total is roughly 150 per year. A nhvsins d-- , .& ~ partment Is, teen, a department that is neither a separate nor a combined department but does grant Ph.D. degrees with theses involving astronomical research done under the supervision of an active research astronomer on the departmental faculty. m e departments listed above are all physics departments, and their graduate students are excluded from the AIP astronomy totals. The third way of classifying departments is the way the OEP Panel did it: whether the astronomy department has a separate chairman as indicated in the AIP Directory of Graduate Programs. We believe that this is the most appropriate classification for faculty, since faculty working for a physics chairman need to convince a physi- cist that their work in astronomy is worthwhile. We also believe that this is appropriate for graduate students, since in the physics departments as defined here they generally take a considerable number of physics courses and have close contact with graduate students working in phys lCS . We recognize that our definitions provide a slightly broader definition of what constitutes an astronomy degree than the traditional ones do. However, we believe that breadth is called for, considering the importance of departments such as the ones listed in this appendix that are not included as astronomy departments in the tradi- tional classification. (One such department, MIT, is listed as the ninth best astronomy program in the country in the Roose-Andersen report.) We have not tried to determine in detail whether the fates of people receiving degrees from physics departments differ from those of people receiving degrees from astronomy departments. m e follow-up study did not reveal any obvious differences. Such a study could be done in the future and might produce interesting results. The Pipeline Picture: This section provides a junc- tion-by-junction description of the reasoning underlying the pipeline picture, Figure 6.4. ~ me numbers for stages through the Ph.D. come from various AIP publications, primarily the annual Graduate Study Surveys (S. Ellis, AIP Pub., No. R-207.xx) and Enrollments and Degrees (S. Ellis, AIP Pub. No. R-151.xx). m e numbers of degrees did not change significantly during the late 1970's, as is illustrated in the detailed discussion of the Ph.D. degree statistics below. The employment status of recent Ph.D.'s is also taken from these publications.

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433 The end of the pipeline is revealed by the follow-up s tudies. Such studies were necessary because most tradi- tional sources of manpower statistics do not follow people after the postdoctoral stage. demia was established by averaging the results ror one classes of 1964 and 1965 (33), 1970 (41), and 1975 (ex- pected to be 22, since 54% of assistant professors end up tenured in academia according to our questionnaire). The decline from 1970 to 1975 is intriguing but probably not statistically significant, especially considering that we have to estimate the fraction of tenure-track employees who will ultimately be tenured. The remaining categories are determined from averaging the data for the classes of 1970 and 1975, except for the Federally Funded R&D Cen- ters, where the class of 1970 was taken as representative, s ince many of the class of 1975 could still, at the time of this study, have been in postdoctoral or other tempo- rary positions. Delineating the intermediate stages of the pipeline was a major objective of our questionnaire. Most man- power studies stop at the postdoctoral stage. It was our perception that the chief manpower problem of the 1970's was not placing Ph.D.'s in postdoctoral positions but, rather, placing people in long-term, permanent jobs. This perception was borne out by our data. How large is the pool of temporarily employed person s? S imple extrapolation from the data on page 3 of our ques- tionnaire would indicate that there are 139/0.44 = 315 postdocs and 136/0.44 = 309 research associates, since the totals on page 3 of the questionnaire represent 44% of the population of Ph.D. astronomers. However, since research associates tend to be concentrated at a small number of institutions, we attempted to estimate the num- ber of research associates at nonresponding institutions from a variety of sources including observatory reports and personal knowledge. This procedure produced an esti- mate of 250 research associates. The number tenured in aca- . .. . .. We therefore adopt 250 (+50) as the number of research associates. The number in stable positions--those for which some employment security is provided--comes from question 7 of the questionnaire; naive extrapolation indicates that 25/0.44 = 56 are in this situation, and we see no reason to question this estimate. Emus there are 250 - 56 or 190 (in round num- bers) research associates in temporary positions, posi- tions that could vanish immediately if a grant were not renewed. Some of the 315 postdocs are "genuine" postdoc- toral recipients, arbitrarily but reasonably defined here

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434 as being within 2 years of their Ph.D. degree. m e AIP surveys indicate that half of new Ph.D.'s take postdoc- toral positions; with 150 Ph.D. degrees awarded each year, this would provide 150 genuine postdoctoral recipi- ents. We believe that the AIP surveys may underestimate the proportion of recent graduates who take postdoctoral positions; it is the graduates themselves who classify their present position, and they may be optimistic in estimating its permanence. If as many as two thirds of recent graduates take postdoctoral positions, then 200 of the 315 postdoctoral recipients are genuine. Taking an average number of 175, this leaves 315 - 175 or 140 people in extended postdoctoral positions. m is number is not inconsistent with the results of the first question in our questionnaire. Then 190 + 140 or 330 people are in this pool of temporarily employed astronomers. The uncer- tainties in this number are considerable; we believe that a rough (say, 1 sigma) uncertainty for the size of each of the components of this pool is 50, leading to a total uncertainty of 70. As a result we have referred to the rounded number of 300 in the main text. We recognize the softness of this number but believe that even a soft num- ber is worth calculating. A figure of 150 is a firm lower limit, based only on the number of research associates in the institutions responding to our questionnaire together with three other institutions for which OEP Panel members have firm knowledge of the numbers. m is estimate of about 300 people is roughly consistent with the results of other, similarly uncertain calcula- tions. m e follow-up studies show 16 members of the Ph.D. class of 1970 and 26 members of the class of 1975 in tome porary academic positions; an annual inflow rate of 21 in the decade (the average of these numbers) would produce an academic reservoir of 210 people. An unreliable but interesting confirmation is provided by the yearly number of applications to tenure-track positions in top-ranked graduate departments in the late 1970's (about 200). The fraction of those not receiving tenure and leaving astronomy (about 15 per year) was determined from the questionnaire, as applied to all permanent employees (with about 15% leaving astronomy after entering a poten- tially permanent position). There was no significant difference among different research fields with respect to the fraction of people still in astronomy. A higher than average fraction of instrumentalists (5/15) had left the field; despite the small sample size, this ratio might be regarded as significant.

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435 Degree Projections for the 1980's: Students who will receive their Ph.D. degrees in the first half of the 1980's are now in graduate school. In those departments that grant astronomy doctorates, there has been a decline in the number of first-year graduate students, from 180 in 1973-1974 to 150 in 1979-1980. Thus the number of astronomy degrees awarded should decline to roughly 75 per year by the mid-1980's, since about half of entering graduate students eventually receive the Ph.D. degree. The Graduate Student Surveys conducted by the AIP separate graduate students in physics departments into categories by subfield; the one relevant to astronomy is astrophysics. m ere has been a similar, but slightly steeper, decline in the number of students in this cate- gory, from 103 in 1975-1976 to 60 in 1978-1979 among the students in their fourth year. It is more difficult to predict trends here since it is easier for students in this category to change fields. It is clear that the num- ber of Ph.D.'s in this category will not increase during the first half of the 1980's and may well decline to about 30 from its present value of 50-60. m us a minimum of 100 students annually will be receiving Ph.D. degrees with astronomy training. Finally, we mention a number of other sources of man- power statistics that we drew on for this Panel report. Particularly noteworthy are the sets of reports developed by the AIP Manpower Statistics Division, a comprehensive report on the state of science in the universities by Smith and Karlesky (1977), the various reports produced by the National Research Council's Commission on Human Resources, the projections of education statistics devel- oped by the National Center for Education Statistics, and, of course, the seminal work of Cartter (1971, 1976), who was the first to point out that demographic trends pro- foundly affect higher education and will become more important, rather than less, by the end of this century. There are also a number of statistical studies of astron- omy that were done in the early to mid-1970's, and we have used them as references: Employment Problems in Astron- omy, a report of the Astronomy Manpower Committee of the NAS Committee on Science and Public Policy; Guidelines to Employment Opportunities in Astronomy (1974), by the AAS Committee on Manpower and Employment; and various reports of the Subcommittee on Manpower and Employment to the National Science Foundation's Astronomy Advisory Panel (1976, 1977). m e reports of the AAS Commission on the Status of Women, referred to earlier, were also used.

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437 Faculty into Academic Research. Sciences, Washington, D.C. National Academy of Consortium on Financing Higher Education, 1980. The Report of the COFHE. Study on Faculty Retirement: An Overview. Consortium on Financing Higher Education, Cambridge, Mass. Cowley, A. P., et al., 1974. 412. Bull. Am. Astron. Soc. 6, Ellis, S. L. 1979. Enrollments and Degrees. AIP Man- power Statistics Division, Rep. No. R-151.16. ESA Science Advisory Committee, 1978. Recommendations on the Development of Space Science in the 1980's. Ferber, R., P. Sheatsley, A. Turner, and J. Waksberg, 1980. What Is A Survey? American Statistical Associa- tion, Washington, D.C. Gomberg, I. L., and Atelsek, F. J., 1978. "Nontenure- Track Science Personnel: Opportunities for Independent Research." Higher Education Panel Reports, No. 39. American Council on Education, Washington, D.C. Greenstein, J. L., et al., 1972. Astronomy and Astrophysics tor the 19-/U 'S. Sciences, Washington, D.C. Grodzins, L., 1979. "Supply and Demand for Ph.D. Physicists. " in Physics Manpower Panel of the American Physical Society, The Transition in Physics Doctoral Employment 1960-1990. American Institute of Physics, New York, pp. 297-381. Hoff, D., 1980. Paper presented at the Chicago Meeting of the American Association of Physics Teachers, Chicago, Illinois. Ivey, R. C., 1980. Paper presented at the Chicago meeting of the American Association of Physics Teachers. See AAPT Announcer, December 1979, pp. 89-90. Kevles, D. J., 1977. The Physicists. Knopf, New York, p. 198. Kuhner, M. B., 1978. Certain Trends in Astronomy and Astrophysics, 1965 to 1977. Battelle Columbus Laboratories, Columbus, Ohio. Lakoff, S. A., 1977. In B. L. R. Smith and J. J. Karlesky, eds., The State of Academic Science, Volume 2 (Background Papers), pp. 163-191. Magarell, J., 1980. Chronicle of Higher Education (April 21, 1980), p. 1. Muller, R. A., 1980. Science 209, 880. National Center for Education Statistics, 1977. Projec- tions of Education Statistics to 1986-1987, M. M. - National Academy of

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438 Frankel, ed. National Center for Education Statistics, Washington, D.C. National Science Foundation, 1978. Supply and Education Analysis Group, Science Resources Studies Division, "Hiring of Science and Engineering Faculty by 2- and 4-Year Colleges. n National Science Foundation report No. 78-309. Porter, B. F., 1974. "Potentials and Problems in Astron- omy Employment." Report prepared for the Astronomy Manpower Committee, Committee on Science and Public Policy, National Academy of Sciences. Porter, B. F., 1979. "A Follow-Up Study of 1973 Postdoc- torals." in Physics Manpower Panel of the American Physical Society, The Transition in Physics Doctoral Employment 1960-1990. American Institute of Physics, New York, pp. 113-192. Porter, B. F., 1980. "AIP Member Societies Entering the 1980's." AIP Report, Manpower Statistics Division, American Institute of Physics, New York. Scully, M. G., 1980. Chronicle of Higher Education "January 28, 1980). pp. 1, 11. Smith, B. L. R., and J. J. Karlesky, 1977. me State of Academic Science, Vols. 1 and 2. Change Magazine Press, New Rochelle, N.Y. Smith, M. L., 1979. Academe (November 1979), 429-433. Staats, E. B., 1979. Science 205, 18. Statistical Abstract of the United States Subcommittee on Manpower and Employment, Astronomy Advisory Panel, National Science Foundation, 1976 report (B. T. Lynds and B. F. Peery). Subcommittee on Manpower and Employment, Astronomy Advisory Panel, National Science Foundation, 1977, report (B. T. Lynds, M. Green, K. M. Merrill, and H. J. Smith). Walgate, R., 1980. Nature 285, 182. Watkins, B. T., 1980. Chronicle of Higher Education (September 15, 1980), p. 12.