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OCR for page 414
414
program rose from $6 million to almost Sl9 million. m e
impact of inflation, combined with the larger number of
grants, results in a situation in which individual
grantees are funded at almost the same effective level
now as a decade ago.
APPENDIX 6.A
The Questionnaire
Any statistical study requires some discussion of the
methodology of the study and the uncertainties associated
with it. In addition, supporting details such as the
exact wording of the questions that were asked is on
occasion useful to statisticians. m is appendix provides
such details. The results contained here are separated
from the main body of the report since they are not likely
to be of broad interest. Further details can be obtained
on request from Harry Shipman, Physics Department, Univer-
sity of Delware, Newark, Delaware 19711.
m e first two sections of the appendix describe in
detail the two major studies we conducted in order to
obtain new data: the questionnaire sent to all depart-
ment chairpersons and group leaders and the follow-up
study that determined the present location and profes-
sional activity of those who received Ph.D. degrees in
astronomy in various years. Subsequent sections present
detailed justification and qualification of some of the
results presented in the main text of the report.
The questionnaire, analyzed in Table 6.A.2, was dis-
tributed on January 4, 1980. The initial mailing was
directed to 187 institutions; the list of institutions
was provided by the American Astronomical Society. In
May 1980, a follow-up letter was sent to some of the
larger institutions that had
not yet responded. A total
of 128 separate replies from 122 institutions was received
by mid-August 1980, when the final analysis of the ques-
tionnaire was completed. m e 64% response rate compares
extremely favorably with the response rate in other sur-
veys, especially in view of the complexity of the ques-
tionnaire. m e 1307 Ph.D.-level employees represent a
somewhat smaller fraction of our estimated total labor
force of 3000, probably because in some cases only cer-
tain departments within an institution responded to our
questionnaire.
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415
The analysis was carried out by the Battelle Columbus
Laboratories and was done under the supervision of Mark
Kuhner. The Statistical Package for the Social Sciences
(SPSS) was used for the data analysis.
In evaluating the results of any survey, one must bear
in mind a number of limitations (see, for example, R.
Ferber _ al., 1980). A principal concern here would be
sampling. Are the 128 institutions that responded to our
survey in fact representative of the institutions that
employ American astronomers? One might, for example,
imagine that the chairpersons of the larger astronomy
departments would have considerably more difficulty in
filling out this rather complicated questionnaire and
that their response rate might thus fall below the
response rate of smaller institutions.
To test this conjecture, we divided the sample of
responding institutions into a set of identifiable sub-
categories and examined the institutional response rate
in each subcategory. Results are presented in Table
6.A.1. The top 16 graduate programs were selected from
the Roose-Andersen list (A Rating of Graduate Programs,
American Council on Education, 1970). There is no
appreciable difference in the response rate of various
TABLE 6.A.1
Institution
Rate of Response to Questionnaire by Type of
Percentage of
Number of Astronomers
Institutional Employees in Represented
Response Responding in Responding
Subgroup Rate Institutions Institutions
Government
laboratories 67% (4/6) 237 46%
FFRDC + nonprofit 60% (9/15) 223 57%
Top 16 Graduate
Programs 65% (11/17)a 112b 44%b
TOTAL SAMPLE 67% (128/191) 1307 44%
.
Cone institution has more than one department offering
graduate work in astronomy.
These totals refer only to faculty in tenured and tenure-
track positions
.
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416
types of institutions. As a further check, the total num-
ber of full-time employees working at responding institu-
tions was culled from the questionnaires and compared
with the total number of full-time employees in institu-
tions in that category, determined from our estimate of
3000 total astronomers and the proportion of astronomers
working in various places furnished by the most recent
survey by the AAS Committee on the Status of Women (see
below). These percentages, given in the last column of
Table 6.A.1, again illustrate the consistency of our
sampling procedures.
There is one respect in which our survey proved to be
an inadequate probe of the population of working American
astronomers. We only distributed questionnaires to three
industrial companies, one of which responded. Since many
of the questionnaire items are inapplicable to private
industry, we believe that for the most part this should
not affect the validity of the conclusions that we have
drawn from the questionnaire.
We did take some measures to ensure that other poten-
tial hazards of surveying were controlled. We did some
limited pretests of this questionnaire on a small set of
department chairpersons. Unfortunately, the design of
the questionnaire form in Question 3 led to some poten-
tially inconsistent results on the distribution of the
Ph.D. thesis fields of currently working astronomers. We
did send a follow-up letter to a limited set of the non-
respondents to the questionnaire. The tabulation of the
results was handled by an organization that has had exten-
sive experience in dealing with this type of question-
naire, and so we have confidence that the tabulations were
handled accurately. Some spot checking of the accuracy
of the tabulations was made.
William Kruskal ("Taking Data Seriously, n in Chapter 6
of Y. Elkana, J. Lederberg, R. K. Merton, A. Thackray,
and H. Zuckerman, eds., Toward a Metric of Science: The
Advent of Science Indicators, Wiley, New York, 1978) lists
a number of other shortcomings of surveys and takes care-
ful aim at surveys conducted in connection with the work
of panels such as the OEP Panel. Unfortunately, this
interesting article came to our attention after the survey
was completed. He mentions one potentially troublesome
point--the definition of terms. We were careful to pro-
vide a definition of the terms "postdoc" and "research
associate" on the questionnaire; comments on several of
the questionnaires indicated that the chairpersons had,
in fact, read our definitions.
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417
TABLE 6.A.2 Analysis of Response to Questionnair e
1. Response to Question 1.
Untenured, tenure- Research
track employees Postdocs Associates
Total M F ? Total M F ? M F
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
Is he or she still doing Y 209 188 15 6 150 142 7 1 122 16
astronomy? N 33 32 1 11 11 6
NA 2 2 4 4
If he or she is no longer
working in your department Y 50 47 3 60 59 1 23 1
or group, did he/she leave N 44 41 3 19 19 9
voluntarily? (yes or no) NA 150 134 10 6 86 79 6 1 96 15
Research Field (see codes I 20 19 1 10 10 13 1
in key) C 43 39 4 45 44 1 18 4
G 27 24 2 1 15 14 1 6 2
ISM 38 34 3 1 21 18 3 7 2
P 20 16 2 2 9 9 25
S 72 65 6 1 38 38 18 4
HE 25 23 2 23 23 17 3
X 14 14 5 5 9
Sun 8 8 9 8 1 20
Male or Female? (respond M 222 222 157 157 128
M or F) F 16 16 7 7 16
NA 6 6 1 1
Was this person working
full time? (yes or no) Y 236 220 13 3 163 155 7 1 126 14
N 4 1 3 2 2 1 2
NA 4 1 3 1
Research orientation T 62 59 3 43 41 2 18 4
(T = basic theory; 0 = M 45 41 4 34 32 2 38 3
observer; M = modeler or O 139 127 10 2 95 92 3 75 12
data analyst; X = other) X 9 8 1 3 3 9
PRESENT LOCATION (check one)
a. in your dept. or group 144 129 10 5 79 72 6 1 92 15
Elsewhere (check appropriate
line)
b. university 33 31 2 42 42 12 1
c. 4-year college 7 6 1 7 7
d. junior college 2 2 1 1
e. government 9 7 1 1 4
f. federally funded research
and development center
(such as Kitt Peak,
NCAR, etc.) 16 16 20 19 1 11
g. industry 15 15 8 8 4
h. planetarium or science
museum
i. in graduate or professional
school preparing for another
career 1 1
j. other (specify below) 9 7 2 5 5 3
k. unknown 6 6 3 3 2
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418
TABLE 6.A. 2 (continued)
1. Response to Quest ion 1.
Untenured, tenure-
track employees Postdocs
Research
Associates
Total M F ? Total M F ? M F
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
PRESENT EMPLOYMENT STATUS (ck . one )
a. postdoctoral 1 1 60 55 4 1 6
b. research associate 19 17 2 26 2S 1 92 13
c. tenure-track but untenured 28 24 4 21 21 5 1
e. tenured or equivalent 116 103 8 5 3 3 3 2
f. civil servant 23 22 1 11 10 1 6
g. contract employee 14 14 12 12 6
h . probably permanently employed,
but none of the above cate-
. . . . . . .
gories apply ( in industry,
f or example )
i . unknown
j. visiting faculty
21 21 9 9 4
14 14 6 6 3
1
3. We wish to characterize the composition and background of your department.
(Total responses: 118)
u,
up _ up
.
·^ ~ ~ ~ ~ -
O O u, ~ · - a' . 1
`- 0" ~ s a ~
o ~ o ~ ~ ~ 3 ~ O o ~ S
Z · - Z · - O U] U) O C,0 O4
JJ J-, ~ - ~ _
—~ —I O · O · O ·~1 0 · - 14 0 N
,'5,, A, ,~ ~ a a ~ u' u' ~ ~
JJ · · · ~ a) · >, ~ ·
0 ~ 0 ~ U) s 0 s U) s 0 s ~ o
En ~ ~ ~ Z P. ~ ~ Z pat O Z
-
Permanent Employees 658 93 412 101 125 12 40
Potentially Permanent
( tenure-track) 186 8 116 24 28 6 16
Postdocs 137 2 80 32 7 0 14
Research Associates 124 12 61 25 17 2 11
Visiting Scientists
w ith permanent or
potentially permanent
pos i t ion e lsewhe r e 60 27
36 15 5 2 22
-
TOTAL 1165 + 142 = 1307 (4496 of Ph.D. Labor Force)
4. Answer the following questions as they pertain to astronomers in your
department and to the last two years . (Total responses: . . . . . . . . . 112)
a. Approximately how many members of your department travelled abroad
( including Canada and Mexico) for extensive (more than one month) stays as
visitors? 161
b. Approximately how many foreign scientists visited for more than one
month?
. 129
c. How many members of your department participated in joint space projects
or other cooperative projects which had international participation? . . 244
d. How many members of your department have collaborated directly with
scientists from other countries in research projects?.......
· —
. 383
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419
TABLE 6.A. 2 (continued)
e. How many trips to foreign observing sites (such as ESO, the Anglo-
Australian Telescope, MPI radio telescope, balloon sites, etc.) were
made by members of your department? (Exclude trips to Cerro Tololo.)
f. How many foreign graduate students in astronomy do you have? .....
g. How many astronomy graduate students from developing countries do you
have?.
5. Estimate the number of department members who might be willing (for
pay) to lead a summer tutorial for astronomers engaged in fulltime teaching.
Such a program would involve the participants in small research projects
which might or might not lead to a published paper, but would increase
their contact with astronomical research..........
. 148
. 74
22
.... 194
6. Have any permanently-employed astronomers (tenured or equivalent) left
your department or group within the last five years? If so, where did
they go? (Total: 110). . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Yes - 46
No - 64
a. Are research associates able to apply for grants as principal
investigators?
If so, are there any restrictions on the types of proposals they
can submit? e ~
Yes - 46
No - 34
· —
e ~ Yes — 7
No - 37
b. Are Assistant Professors (or equivalent) able to apply for grants
as principal investigators? Yes
- 91
— 5
c. Does your institution have any formal arrangements for a parallel
track" in which the employment security and salary arrangements for
research are explicitly delineated?. Yes - 18
No - 69
If so, how many department members fall
into this category?....
If you have such arrangements and are willing to enclose a copy of the
guidelines with your response, it would help us to develop a better
picture of this emerging phenomenon.
8. Questions pertaining to graduate programs:
a. Does your department grant Ph.D. degrees in astronomy?
physics?
. . . 25
.... Yes - 35
No - 76
Yes - 32
.
b e If your department grants Ph e De degrees in astronomy, how many
physics courses (l-semester or 1-term courses) are required for
"~ rev n
C.
d.
How many of your astronomy graduate students have ever outfit or
rebuilt an instrument? ....................
Do you specifically encourage astronomy graduate students to
take courses outside of astronomy and physics?. .
If so, give some representative examples.
. Yes - 28
No - 21
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420
TABLE 6 . A . 2 (continued )
e. Are you experiencing increasing difficulty in obtaining good
graduate students? . . . . . . . . . .
Yes - 36
No - 19
f. Has your department limited the number of students it has accepted
in direct response to limited employment opportunities?. . . . Yes - 19
No - 35
9. Some astronomers spend time in activities intended to bring astronomy to
the general public (for example, giving public lectures, appearing on TV or
radio shows, etc.)
a.
Do you feel that this kind of activity is a useful contribution to
the community?. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . e ~ ~ · Yes - 116
No - 1
b. Is this kind of activity considered to be a positive contribu-
tion when promotion and tenure decisions are made? . . . . . . Yes - 79
No - 30
c. Would you recommend that a suitably inclined junior faculty
member spend a small amount of time (2 hr/week or less) on this
type of work? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Yes - 93
No - 17
d. Would you recommend that a suitably inclined faculty member spend
considerable (more than 2 hr/week) time on this type of work? Yes - 14
No - 90
COMMENTS:
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421
Key to Table 6. A . 2
Table 6.A.2 presents information gathered in our survey
of institutions active in astronomical research. Each
page of the questionnaire was headed with the words,
ASHEN ANSWERING THIS QUESTIONNAIRE' PLEASE INCLUDE
INFORMATION THAT PERTAINS ONLY TO THE ASTRONOMERS IN YOUR
DEPARTMENT OR GROUP..
Question 2 of the survey dealt with funding trends and
vulnerabilities, collected for the benefit of NASA and
not of general interest.
Question 1 was "We wish to establish what became of
persons who were assistant professors (or equivalent) in
your department or group in the academic years 1973/74
and 1974/75.
We also wish to establish what has become
of your nontenure track employees who were with your
department or group in the academic years 1977/78 and
1978/79. Assign each person in these categories a numb
bered column on this page and fill in the appropriate
spaces with check marks or brief answers. If you need
more space, make photocopies of this page of the
questionnaire. n
The following information was provided as guidance:
"Research Field codes: I = instruments and techniques; C
- cosmology, extragalactic objects, quasistellar objects;
G = Galactic structure, stellar motions; ISM = inter-
stellar matter and gaseous nebulae; P = solar system,
space astronomy of the solar system (planetary); S a
stellar atmospheres and spectra, stellar evolution, solar
and stellar interiors; HE = supernovae, X, gamma, and
cosmic rays, pulsars (e.g., high energy); Sun ~ solar; X
= other. For the purposes of this questionnaire, a
postdoc is defined as a position of limited duration
which will generally not be renewed for more than three
years. A research associate is supported by grants and
is employed at least as long as an appropriate grant is
available. Visiting faculty are in temporary teaching
positions. n
We provide as the first item of Table 6.A.2 the
summary totals, as well as the breakdown for male and
female subjects in each category.
Questions 3 through 9 are self-explanatory.
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422
In summary, then, the results from the questionnaire
should prove to reflect accurately the results that would
have been attained with a comprehensive survey of the
astronomers in this country, except for the lack of
responses from industrial companies employing astrono-
mers. Most of our questions did not address this small
but interesting group.
Some additional statistical analyses based on the ques-
tionnaire appear in Table 6.A.3, which presents the dis-
tribution of four categories of nontenured astronomers by
research field, and in Table 6.A.4, which presents the
distribution of three categories of astronomers by re-
search orientation and sex. A few individuals furnished
multiple responses to the questions on research field,
research orientation, present location, and present
employment status. Profiles of all the variables for
page 1 of the questionnaire for the following subsets of
data are available, but are not presented here:
1. Still doing astronomy (yes, no, no response)
2. Leave voluntarily (yes, no, no response)
3. Research field (9 categories)
The Follow-up Studies: The usual approach to deter-
mining the characteristics of manpower problems is to
send questionnaires to a set of people asking their
employment status. We did not follow this course for two
reasons: m e AAS Committee on the Status of Women
(CSW-AAS) had already done such a study, asking many (but
not all) of the questions we would like to see answered.
In addition, carrying out such a survey is rather time-
consuming.
We therefore took a different approach. Astronomy is
still a sufficiently small field that astronomers can be
located directly--through AAS membership directories,
Astronomy and Astrophysics Abstracts, biographical dic-
tionaries, or some other means. We used the names of
astronomers who received Ph.D. degrees in astronomy as
listed in the publication American Doctoral Dissertations
and then sought to determine their present locations. The
results of this study have been referred to in the main
text; complete tabulations and a discussion of method-
ology are presented here.
The principal advantage of this approach is that there
is no problem of nonrespondent bias because there are no
respondents to questionnaires. This approach also cir-
cumvents the difficulty of locating astronomers who have
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TABLE 6.A.3 Percentage of Astronomers in Various
Research Fields
Grad Research
Students a Pos tdocs b Assoc iates b
Tenure-
Trac k
Employee fib
.
Instruments
and techniques
Cosmology, extra-
galactic objects,
quasi-e teller
objects
Galactic structure,
stellar motions
Interstellar matter
and gaseous nebulae
Planetary (solar
system, space
astronomy of the
solar system)
Stellar atmospheres
and spectra,
stellar evolution,
solar and stellar
inter iors
6 6.1 9.7 8.2
21 27.3
7 9.1 S.6
17.6
11.1
13 12.7 6.3 15.6
6 5.5 17.4 8.2
22 23.0 15.3 29.5
High energy (super-
novae; x, gaIrana,
and cosmic rays;
pulsars )
Solar 4 5 5
Other and no answer Ma 3.0
No. in respond ing 50 3 16 5
sample
6 13.9 13.9 10.2
13.9 3.3
6.3 5.7
144 244
From S. L. Ellis, 1978-1979 Graduate Study Survey, AIP. ~Other.
includes 9% describing their research specialty as "astrophysics. n
Uncertainties in the last three columns are roughly 4 percentage points
for the larger categories. Totals do not add to 100 because in a few
cases more than one f ield was listed.
left the field; if one were to send questionnaires to
such people one would need to know their present
addresses.
The classes selected are divided into four groups:
the classes of 1959, 1960, and 1961, treated as a group;
the classes of 1964 and 1965, treated as a group; the
class of 1970; and the class of 1975. Groups of two and
three classes were taken in the earlier years in an effort
to assemble adequate statistics. For the purpose of this
study, a "class" was defined as that group of people who
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424
TABLE 6.A.4 Percentage of Astronomers by Research
Orientation and Sex
Research
Research Tenure-Track
Orientation Postdocs Associates Employees
Basic m eory 26.1 15.3 25.4
Observer 57.6 60.4 57.0
Modeler or 20.6 28.5 18.4
Data Analyst
Other 1.8 6.3 3.7
Sex
Male 95.2 88.9 91.0
Female 4.2 11.1 (16) 6.6 (16)
No Answer 0.6 0 2.5
are listed in American Doctoral Dissertations as having
received their Ph.D. degrees in any given year with thesis
topics classified as astronomical ones. me numbers of
people receiving Ph.D. degrees in particular years cor-
respond quite well with the numbers of degrees per year
listed in other surveys such as those conducted by AIP
and NAS. Both U.S. and Canadian institutions were
included.
These classes were studied by using the membership
directory of the AAS for the year 1978/1979 and the
1978/1979 Directory of Physics and Astronomy Staff
Members compiled by AIP as primary sources. The job was
simply one of locating each individual in one of these
directories and determining where that individual was
employed. In addition, Astronomy and Astrophysics
Abstracts was searched in order to locate those individ-
uals who are not listed in either one of the directories.
The time periods covered in Astronomy and Astrophysics
Abstracts were the last half of 1978 and the first half
of 1979. For the class of 1970, the Science Citation
Index, a publication covering 2572 journals, was surveyed
as well. m e results of that survey revealed a number of
people who have switched from astronomy into other fields
and who are currently publishing in those other fields
but did not reveal a significant number of additional
people who are in the field of astronomy not disclosed by
OCR for page 428
428
1979-1980, were AAS members. We found that 19% were
non-AAS members; with this correction, the Ph.D. labor
pool is (2460)/(1 - 0.19) = 3000. Porter (1974, report
to the NAS COSPUP Manpower Committee) gave a somewhat
higher figure of 27% non-AAS members based on the AIP
National Register in 1973. Since the Register included
graduate students, this figure may be unrealistically
high. With Porter's number, the Ph.D. labor pool becomes
3300. We adopt an average number of 3000 Ph.D. astrono-
mers for use in our report. There is an uncertainty of
10% in this number. There are, to be sure, astronomers
without Ph.D. degrees, but it is unclear how many there
are. The 1973 AIP National Register listed 593 non-Ph.D.
degree holders as currently "primarily working in astron-
omy." These presumably include graduate students, night
assistants, some college faculty members, and some plan-
etarium people, to list a few representative categories.
It is our belief that the graduate-student component of
that population is sufficiently large to argue that the
non-Ph.D. component of the astronomy work force, while
serving several important functions, is numerically small.
We note that our circulation of a list of OEP Panel issues
to department chairpersons and group leaders did not show
any great demand for those with a masters' degree in
astronomy.
Our estimate of 3000 astronomers is somewhat higher
than previous estimates. Porter (1974), working from a
1973 survey carried out by AIP, estimated a national popu-
lation of between 885 and 1442 persons who are "astrono-
mers" by various definitions. Even allowing for the
limited response rate from the survey (between 70 and 90%
depending on the type of respondent), and the growth in
the profession since then (about 100 per year from the
. .
f^1 1~.. - =~,Aimc,\
---I fir ~_~' , the number from the 1973 survey is
difficult to reconcile with the OEP Panel's estimate. We
have, however, used the broadest definition of "astrono-
mer"--someone who is either a member of the AAS o is
working in an astronomy department. We note as well that
astronomers may identify themselves differently in re-
sponse to different surveys. The 1978 survey of the
CWS-AAS indicated that 92% of the women and 77% of the
men respondents called themselves astronomers or astro-
physicists (Bull. AAS 12, 624, 1980), but Porter (1980)
found that only 60% of the AAS members identified them-
selves as ~astronomers" in responding to an AIP survey.
If the same bias applies to the AIP' S 1973 register, this
could explain the large size of our estimate of the
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429
population--many astronomers probably identified them-
selves as physicists in the 1973 register.
In Table 6.1 of the text, the category ~business/
industry" was described as "private industry" in the two
AAS-CSW surveys. "Governments includes state, local, and
federal government in the surveys of physicists and
astronomers and of all science and engineering doctorates.
"Observatory or Research Institute" was described as
"National Observatory or Laboratory" in the 1973 CSW
survey; thus the apparent increase in the number of
astronomers in this category is not significant. In the
last two columns of the table this category also includes
"Hospital/Clinic" and "Other Nonprofit Organizations. n
The sources of the data in the tables are the CSW-AAS
surveys (Bull. AAS 12, 624-635, 1980, M. H.-Liller, A. P.
Cowley, P. W. Hodge, F. J. Kerr, and N. D. Morrison;
and A. P. Cowley, R. Humphreys, B. Lynds, and V. Rubin,
Bull. AAS 6, 412-422, 1974). The last two columns are
from B. D. Maxfield, N. C. Ahern, and A. W. Spisak,
Science, Engineering, and Humanities Doctorates in the
United States: 1977 Profile, National Academy of Sciences,
Commission on Human Resources, 1978). In order to check
for possible bias in the surveys of AAS members, a survey
was done of the AAS membership directory and the home
addresses of various AAS members were classified. This
study showed that the CSW-AAS study was correct.
m e Number of Ph.D. Degrees per Year: We have made
some effort to ensure that our data on number of Ph.D.'s
being given every year, shown in Figure 6.6, were as com-
plete as possible. Prior to 1970, the Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare (HEW) was responsible for
collecting these statistics and producing a publication
entitled Earned Degrees Conferred. This was the primary
source of data used by the Greenstein committee. m e
Greenstein committee noted (pages 330-331 of Volume 2 of
their report) that the HEW data were not always complete.
AS a result, we checked a number of other sources.
Examination of the publication American Doctoral Dis-
sertations indicates that the HEW data for astronomy were
reasonably complete for periods earlier than 1970. How-
ever, a comparison of this source of data with the numbers
from HEW indicates that, beginning in the early 1970's,
the HEW numbers became very incomplete. HEW reports the
number of astronomy degrees as falling in the range of
80-90 per year. However, as various committees studying
the astronomy employment situation in the early 1970's
noted (B. D. Lynds, KPNO, private communication; American
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430
Astronomical Society, Committee on Manpower and Employ-
ment, 1974), the HEW data significantly understate the
number of Ph.D.'s per year in the early 1970's, which is
more correctly described as being in the range between
130 and 140. m us, following the year 1972, our data
were based on those collected by the AAS Committee on
Manpower and Employment and the data gathered by the
Subcommittee on Manpower and Employment of the advisory
committee for the National Science Foundation. We are
grateful to B. D. Lynds for making these reports avail-
able to us.
For periods following 1976, the AIP institutional tabu-
lations also appear to be complete. One must take a cer-
tain amount of care in classifying astronomy degrees as
is discussed below; however, upon comparing these numbers
with data from other sources that were available to us, we
concluded that the AIP tabulations provide a reasonably
good count of the number of people receiving a Ph.D. in
astronomy in any given year.
To summarize the sources of our number of astronomy
degrees prior to 1972, we used the data from HEW's Earned
Degrees Conferred, except for the year 1970 when the num-
ber from the institutional questionnaire distributed by
the Greenstein group was available. In 1973 we used the
number from the Commission on Manpower and Employment
Guideline to Employment Opportunities in Astronomy. For
1974 and 1975 we used totals from American Doctoral Dis-
sertations. For 1976 we used the number from the Subcom-
mittee on Manpower and Employment Report to the Astronomy
Advisory Committee, National Science Foundation. For 1977
and following years we used numbers from the AIP, includ-
ing both degrees from separate astronomy departments and
degrees with astronomy theses granted by physics depart-
ments. We recognize that the sources for the 1970's are
somewhat heterogeneous; however, numbers from other
sources consistently provide values in the 130 to 160
range from the period 1975 to 1979.
Astronomy Degrees, "Astrophysics Degrees, and Physics
Degrees: In tabulations by various organizations as well
as within the astronomical community, there is some debate
on what constitutes a Ph.D. in Astronomy. The definition
that we used required that the thesis topic of the . .D.
degree should be an astronomical one, as reported by the
department to the AIP. Any narrower definition would
exclude some departments that grant degrees in physics
but that are recognized as major astronomical research
centers, such as the University of California, San Diego;
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TABLE 6.A.6 Types of Ph.D. Degrees Awarded in
1978-1979
Degree Title
Astronomy
Physics
Ambiguous
Department Type
(AIP Classification)
Separate astronomy
Combined
Physics
Department Type
(OEP Panel Classification)
Astronomy
Physics
79
62
16
74
12
71
76
81
Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT); the Johns
Hopkins University; and the physics departments of the
University of Chicago and Princeton University. In order
to explore this problem of definition, a considerable
amount of analysis of the data reported in the AIP publi-
cation Graduate Programs in Physics, Astronomy, and
Related Fields, 1979-1980 (AIP Publication R205.5) was
done. These analyses are summarized in Table 6.A.6.
One can first classify a degree according to whether
the department reports to the AIP that it grants degrees
in astronomy, physics, or both. If a department grants
both types of degrees, it is impossible to determine how
many of the 1979 Ph.D. degrees were of either type, and
these are listed as ambiguous in the table.
A second classification follows the AIP classification
of departments into three types, separate astronomy,
physics, and combined. The definition of a combined
department is not entirely clear, nor is it consistently
followed by department chairpersons. In general, it is a
department that calls itself a physics and astronomy
department, and often it is a department that reports
granting Ph.D. degrees in both physics and astronomy.
However, there are a number of departments that would
clearly fall within the spirit (if not within the letter)
of this definition, such as those on the list above, and
which are not included in the AIP list of combined depart-
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meets. This is the principal reason why the AIP total of
astronomy degrees for the late 1970's falls below 100,
while our total is roughly 150 per year. A nhvsins d--
, .& ~
partment Is, teen, a department that is neither a separate
nor a combined department but does grant Ph.D. degrees
with theses involving astronomical research done under
the supervision of an active research astronomer on the
departmental faculty. m e departments listed above are
all physics departments, and their graduate students are
excluded from the AIP astronomy totals.
The third way of classifying departments is the way
the OEP Panel did it: whether the astronomy department
has a separate chairman as indicated in the AIP Directory
of Graduate Programs. We believe that this is the most
appropriate classification for faculty, since faculty
working for a physics chairman need to convince a physi-
cist that their work in astronomy is worthwhile. We also
believe that this is appropriate for graduate students,
since in the physics departments as defined here they
generally take a considerable number of physics courses
and have close contact with graduate students working in
phys lCS .
We recognize that our definitions provide a slightly
broader definition of what constitutes an astronomy
degree than the traditional ones do. However, we believe
that breadth is called for, considering the importance of
departments such as the ones listed in this appendix that
are not included as astronomy departments in the tradi-
tional classification. (One such department, MIT, is
listed as the ninth best astronomy program in the country
in the Roose-Andersen report.) We have not tried to
determine in detail whether the fates of people receiving
degrees from physics departments differ from those of
people receiving degrees from astronomy departments. m e
follow-up study did not reveal any obvious differences.
Such a study could be done in the future and might
produce interesting results.
The Pipeline Picture: This section provides a junc-
tion-by-junction description of the reasoning underlying
the pipeline picture, Figure 6.4. ~
me numbers for stages
through the Ph.D. come from various AIP publications,
primarily the annual Graduate Study Surveys (S. Ellis,
AIP Pub., No. R-207.xx) and Enrollments and Degrees (S.
Ellis, AIP Pub. No. R-151.xx). m e numbers of degrees
did not change significantly during the late 1970's, as
is illustrated in the detailed discussion of the Ph.D.
degree statistics below. The employment status of recent
Ph.D.'s is also taken from these publications.
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The end of the pipeline is revealed by the follow-up
s tudies. Such studies were necessary because most tradi-
tional sources of manpower statistics do not follow people
after the postdoctoral stage.
demia was established by averaging the results ror one
classes of 1964 and 1965 (33), 1970 (41), and 1975 (ex-
pected to be 22, since 54% of assistant professors end up
tenured in academia according to our questionnaire). The
decline from 1970 to 1975 is intriguing but probably not
statistically significant, especially considering that we
have to estimate the fraction of tenure-track employees
who will ultimately be tenured. The remaining categories
are determined from averaging the data for the classes of
1970 and 1975, except for the Federally Funded R&D Cen-
ters, where the class of 1970 was taken as representative,
s ince many of the class of 1975 could still, at the time
of this study, have been in postdoctoral or other tempo-
rary positions.
Delineating the intermediate stages of the pipeline
was a major objective of our questionnaire. Most man-
power studies stop at the postdoctoral stage. It was our
perception that the chief manpower problem of the 1970's
was not placing Ph.D.'s in postdoctoral positions but,
rather, placing people in long-term, permanent jobs.
This perception was borne out by our data.
How large is the pool of temporarily employed person s?
S imple extrapolation from the data on page 3 of our ques-
tionnaire would indicate that there are 139/0.44 = 315
postdocs and 136/0.44 = 309 research associates, since
the totals on page 3 of the questionnaire represent 44%
of the population of Ph.D. astronomers. However, since
research associates tend to be concentrated at a small
number of institutions, we attempted to estimate the num-
ber of research associates at nonresponding institutions
from a variety of sources including observatory reports
and personal knowledge. This procedure produced an esti-
mate of 250 research associates.
The number tenured in aca-
. .. . ..
We therefore adopt 250
(+50) as the number of research associates. The number in
stable positions--those for which some employment security
is provided--comes from question 7 of the questionnaire;
naive extrapolation indicates that 25/0.44 = 56 are in
this situation, and we see no reason to question this
estimate. Emus there are 250 - 56 or 190 (in round num-
bers) research associates in temporary positions, posi-
tions that could vanish immediately if a grant were not
renewed. Some of the 315 postdocs are "genuine" postdoc-
toral recipients, arbitrarily but reasonably defined here
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434
as being within 2 years of their Ph.D. degree. m e AIP
surveys indicate that half of new Ph.D.'s take postdoc-
toral positions; with 150 Ph.D. degrees awarded each
year, this would provide 150 genuine postdoctoral recipi-
ents. We believe that the AIP surveys may underestimate
the proportion of recent graduates who take postdoctoral
positions; it is the graduates themselves who classify
their present position, and they may be optimistic in
estimating its permanence. If as many as two thirds of
recent graduates take postdoctoral positions, then 200 of
the 315 postdoctoral recipients are genuine. Taking an
average number of 175, this leaves 315 - 175 or 140 people
in extended postdoctoral positions. m is number is not
inconsistent with the results of the first question in
our questionnaire. Then 190 + 140 or 330 people are in
this pool of temporarily employed astronomers. The uncer-
tainties in this number are considerable; we believe that
a rough (say, 1 sigma) uncertainty for the size of each
of the components of this pool is 50, leading to a total
uncertainty of 70. As a result we have referred to the
rounded number of 300 in the main text. We recognize the
softness of this number but believe that even a soft num-
ber is worth calculating. A figure of 150 is a firm lower
limit, based only on the number of research associates in
the institutions responding to our questionnaire together
with three other institutions for which OEP Panel members
have firm knowledge of the numbers.
m is estimate of about 300 people is roughly consistent
with the results of other, similarly uncertain calcula-
tions. m e follow-up studies show 16 members of the Ph.D.
class of 1970 and 26 members of the class of 1975 in tome
porary academic positions; an annual inflow rate of 21 in
the decade (the average of these numbers) would produce
an academic reservoir of 210 people. An unreliable but
interesting confirmation is provided by the yearly number
of applications to tenure-track positions in top-ranked
graduate departments in the late 1970's (about 200).
The fraction of those not receiving tenure and leaving
astronomy (about 15 per year) was determined from the
questionnaire, as applied to all permanent employees
(with about 15% leaving astronomy after entering a poten-
tially permanent position). There was no significant
difference among different research fields with respect
to the fraction of people still in astronomy. A higher
than average fraction of instrumentalists (5/15) had left
the field; despite the small sample size, this ratio
might be regarded as significant.
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435
Degree Projections for the 1980's: Students who will
receive their Ph.D. degrees in the first half of the
1980's are now in graduate school. In those departments
that grant astronomy doctorates, there has been a decline
in the number of first-year graduate students, from 180
in 1973-1974 to 150 in 1979-1980. Thus the number of
astronomy degrees awarded should decline to roughly 75
per year by the mid-1980's, since about half of entering
graduate students eventually receive the Ph.D. degree.
The Graduate Student Surveys conducted by the AIP
separate graduate students in physics departments into
categories by subfield; the one relevant to astronomy is
astrophysics. m ere has been a similar, but slightly
steeper, decline in the number of students in this cate-
gory, from 103 in 1975-1976 to 60 in 1978-1979 among the
students in their fourth year. It is more difficult to
predict trends here since it is easier for students in
this category to change fields. It is clear that the num-
ber of Ph.D.'s in this category will not increase during
the first half of the 1980's and may well decline to about
30 from its present value of 50-60. m us a minimum of 100
students annually will be receiving Ph.D. degrees with
astronomy training.
Finally, we mention a number of other sources of man-
power statistics that we drew on for this Panel report.
Particularly noteworthy are the sets of reports developed
by the AIP Manpower Statistics Division, a comprehensive
report on the state of science in the universities by
Smith and Karlesky (1977), the various reports produced
by the National Research Council's Commission on Human
Resources, the projections of education statistics devel-
oped by the National Center for Education Statistics, and,
of course, the seminal work of Cartter (1971, 1976), who
was the first to point out that demographic trends pro-
foundly affect higher education and will become more
important, rather than less, by the end of this century.
There are also a number of statistical studies of astron-
omy that were done in the early to mid-1970's, and we have
used them as references: Employment Problems in Astron-
omy, a report of the Astronomy Manpower Committee of the
NAS Committee on Science and Public Policy; Guidelines to
Employment Opportunities in Astronomy (1974), by the AAS
Committee on Manpower and Employment; and various reports
of the Subcommittee on Manpower and Employment to the
National Science Foundation's Astronomy Advisory Panel
(1976, 1977). m e reports of the AAS Commission on the
Status of Women, referred to earlier, were also used.
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436
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~ _
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Representative terms from entire chapter:
department chairpersons
