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Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's VOLUME 2: Report of the Panels Astronomy Survey Committee Commission on Physical Sciences, Mathematics, and Resources National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1983

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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was established by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy's purposes of furthering knowledge and of advising the federal government. The Council operates in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy under the authority of its congressional charter of 1863, which establishes the Academy as a private, nonprofit, self-governing membership corporation. The Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in the conduct of their services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. It is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. The National Academy of Engineering and the Institute of Medicine were established in 1964 and 1970, respectively, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences. Front Cover Map of radio emission from the galaxy 3C449 recorded by the Very Large Array (VLA) radio telescope of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory near Socorro, New Mexico. The map reveals highly collimated jets of matter connecting an unresolved galactic nucleus to outlying "lobes" of ejected gas. (Photo courtesy of the National Radio Astronomy Observatory) Library of Congress Catalog Card Number 82-8014 International Standard Book Number 0-309-03334-9 Available from NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS 2101 Constitution Avenue, N.W. Washington, D.C. 20418 Printed in the United States of America

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Panels of the Astronomy Survey Committee PANEL ON HIGH ENERGY ASTROPHYSICS GEORGE W. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Chairman ~ C. STUART BOWYER, University of California, Berkeley RICCARDO GIACCONI, Space Telescope Science Institute ALLAN S. JACOBSON, Jet Propulsion Laboratory WILLIAM L. KRAUSHAAR, University of Wisconsin DIETRICH MUELLER, University of Chicago REUVEN RAMATY, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center DAVID SCHRAMM, University of Chicago KIP THORNE, California Institute of Technology CARL E. FICHTEL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, ex officio ARTHUR B. C. WALKER, Stanford University, ex officio PANEL ON ULTAVIOLET, OPTICAL, AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY E. JOSEPH WAMPLER, University of California, Santa Cruz, Chairman JACQUES BECKERS, University of Arizona GEOFFREY BURBIDGE, Kitt Peak National Observatory GEORGE CARRUTHERS, U.S. Naval Research Laboratory JUDITH G. COHEN, California Institute of Technology JOHN GALLAGHER, University of Illinois, Urbana iii

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FRED GILLETT, Kitt Peak National Observatory W. A. HILTNER, University of Michigan WILLIAM F. HOFFMANN, University of Arizona JEFFREY LINSKY, Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics and the University of Colorado J. BEVERLEY ORE, California Institute of Technology VERA RUBIN, Carnegie Institution of Washington RAINDER WEISS, Massachusetts Institute of Technology SIDNEY C. WOLFF, University of Hawaii DONALD YORK, Princeton University Consultants J. ROGER ANGEL, University of Arizona JESSE GREENSTEIN, California Institute of Technology LYMAN SPITZER, Princeton University STEPHEN E. STROM, Kitt Peak National Observatory PANEL ON RADIO ASTRONOMY PATRICK THADDEUS, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University, Chairman BERNARD BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology MARSHALL COHEN, California Institute of Technology FRANK DRAKE, Cornell University MORTON ROBERTS, National Radio Astronomy Observatory JOSEPH TAYLOR, Princeton University WILLIAM J. WELCH, University of California, Berkeley DAVID WILKINSON, Princeton University ROBERT WILSON, Bell Laboratories Consultant GEORGE A. DULK, University of Colorado PANEL ON THEORETICAL AND LABORATORY ASTROPHYSICS RICHARD A. McC RAY, Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics and the University of Colorado, Chairman W. DAVID ARNETT, University of Chicago ROGER BLANDFORD, California Institute of Technology ALEXANDER DALGARNO, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics WILLIAM FOWLER, California Institute of Technology WILLIAM PRESS, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics SCOTT D. TREMAINE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JAMES G. WILLIAMS, Jet Propulsion Laboratory iv

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Consultants ARTHUR N. COX, Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory KRIS DAVIDSON, University of Minnesota VICTOR G. SZEBEHELY, University of Texas, Austin C. BRUCE TARTER, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory PANEL ON DATA PROCESSING AND COMPUTATIONAL FACILITIES EDWARD J. GROTH, Princeton University, Chairman ROBERT M. HJELLMING, National Radio Astronomy Observatory RICHARD B. LARSON, Yale University JAYLEE M. MEAD, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center RICHARD H. MILLER, University of Chicago BERNARD OLIVER, Hewlett-Packard Corporation STEPHEN E. STROM, Kitt Peak National Observatory PAUL R. WOODWARD, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory PANEL ON ORGANIZATON, EDUCATION, AND PERSONNEL RICHARD C. HENRY, The John Hopkins University, Chairman PETER B. BOYCE, American Astronomical Society NOEL W. HINNERS, Smithsonian Institution HENRY L. SHIPMAN, University of Delaware ELSKE V. P. SMITH, Virginia Commonwealth University DONNA E. WEISTROP, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center Consultants DONALD W. GOLDSMITH, Interstellar Media MARTHA H. LILLER, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics WAYNE OSBORN, Central Michigan University R. MARCUS PRICE, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque v

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Astronomy Survey Committee GEORGE B. FIELD, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, Chairman MICHAEL J. S. BELTON, Kitt Peak National Observatory E. MARGARET BURBIDGE, University of California, San Diego GEORGE W. CLARK, Massachusetts Institute of Technology S. M. FABER, University of California, Santa Cruz CARL E. FICHTEL, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ROBERT D. GEHRZ, University of Wyoming EDWARD J. GROTH, Princeton University JAMES E. GUNN, Princeton University DAVID HEESCHEN, National Radio Astronomy Observatory RICHARD C. HENRY, The Johns Hopkins University RICHARD A. McC RAY, Joint Institute for Laboratory Astrophysics and the University of Colorado JEREMIAH OSTRIKER, Princeton University EUGENE N. PARKER, University of Chicago MAARTEN SCHMIDT, California Institute of Technology HARLAN J. SMITH, University of Texas, Austin STEPHEN E. STROM, Kitt Peak National Observatory (ex officio) PATRICK THADDEUS, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies and Columbia University CHARLES H. TOWNS, University of California, Berkeley ARTHUR B. C. WALKER, Stanford University E. JOSEPH WAMPLER, University of California, Santa Cruz PAUL BLANCHARD, Executive Secretarv DALE Z. RINKEL, Administrative Secretary vi

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- Commission on Physical Sciences Mathematics and Resources HERBERT FRIEDMAN, National Research Council, Cochairman ROBERT M. WHITE, University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Cochairman STANLEY I. AUERBACH, Oak Ridge National Laboratory ELKAN R. BLOUT, Harvard Medical School WILLIAM BROWDER, Princeton University BERNARD F. BURKE, Massachusetts Institute of Technology HERMAN CHERNOFF, Massachusetts Institute of Technology WALTER R. ECKELMANN, Exxon Corporation JOSEPH L. FISHER, Office of the Governor, Commonwealth of Virginia JAMES C. FLETCHER, University of Pittsburgh WILLIAM A. FOWLER, California Institute of Technology GERHART FRIEDLANDER, Brookhaven National Laboratory EDWARD A. FRIEMAN, Science Applications, Inc. EDWARD D. GOLDBERG, Scripps Institution of Oceanography KONRAD B. KRAUSKOPF, Stanford University CHARLES J. MANKIN, Oklahoma Geological Survey WALTER H. MONK, University of California, San Diego NORTON NELSON, New York University Medical Center DANIEL A. OKUN, University of North Carolina GEORGE E. PAKE, Xerox Research Center CHARLES K. REED, National Research Council HATTEN S. YODER, JR., Carnegie Institution of Washington RAPHAEL G. KASPER, Executive Director ~ V11

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Preface This volume contains the contributions submitted by six Panels to the Astronomy Survey Committee, whose report, Astronomy and Astrophysics for the 1980's, Volume 1: Report of the Astronomy Survey Committee (National Academy Press, Washington, D.C., 1982), accompanies this volume. Chapters 2, 4, 5, 6, and 7 of Volume 1 draw heavily on the material here. The National Academy of Sciences charged the Astronomy Survey Committee with making recommendations for programs and facilities needed to meet the opportunities for progress in astronomical research during the 1980's. To carry out this charge, the Committee organized panels of experts to propose recommendations in six areas of astro- nomical research, five of which were defined by techniques of study. Scientific questions identified by seven working groups were helpful to the panels in evaluating the potential of various proposed programs and facilities to maximize scientific return. The panels studied observational programs in high- energy astrophysics (including x rays and gamma rays, as well as high-energy neutrinos and gravitational waves); in ultraviolet, optical, and infrared astronomy (includ- ing radiation ranging from a few hundred angstroms to a few hundred micrometers wavelength); and in radio astronomy (including all longer wavelengths). The Panel on Ultraviolet, Optical, and Infrared Astronomy had a particularly difficult task, as its purview included a 1X

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substantial fraction of all astronomy; however, the Survey Committee felt it was important to include a consideration of all three wavelength bands within a single panel study because of the commonality of the telescopes and, to some extent, of the detectors employed. This was a novel experiment, and it worked well. A fourth panel addressed problems in the area of theo- retical and laboratory astrophysics. Although the two approaches are very different, both are directed toward the interpretation of astronomical information gathered by observational means, and both are rooted in physics. The combination proved to be a fruitful one. A fifth panel, on data processing and computational facilities, addressed the utilization of computers for data reduction and analysis as well as for theoretical modeling. Final- ly, a sixth panel, on organization, education, and per- sonnel, was charged with a more general investigation of the health of the professions involved in astronomical research. Each panel drafted reports indicating how the technical means in their areas could best address the scientific problems of which they were aware, as well as those prob- lems discussed in the working group reports circulated to the panels. m e panel reports were reviewed by the work- ing groups to assure that they were, in fact, responsive to the scientific opportunities. The panel reports were then considered by the parent committee. me programs and facilities recommended in them were examined individually by the Survey Committee, and the relative scientific im- portance of each assessed. The final recommendations of the Astronomy Survey Committee, while those of the com- mittee alone (see Volume 1), also reflect its judgment of the importance attached to each of the programs and facilities proposed by the panels. Each program or facility mentioned in the report of the Astronomy Survey Committee is usually discussed at greater length in an appropriate panel report. As part of the process of establishing priorities, a number of programs and facilities proposed by the panels were not, finally, recommended by the committee. Descriptions of such programs and facilities found in the panel reports may nevertheless may be valuable in developing a balanced research program for astronomy and astrophysics. Astronomy embraces a wide variety of techniques and approaches, and, as a consequence, the Astronomy Survey Committee could not include experts in all fields. The

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panels could and did. Without them, the work of the committee would have been impossible. With the aid of their reports, whose quality is manifested in this volume, it was possible to frame an overall program that will make substantial progress in the next decade on many exciting frontiers of science. X1

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C~1 LW1 ~ 1 HIGH-ENERGY ASTROPHYSICS I. INTRODUCTION II. THE NATURE OF HIGH-ENERGY ASTRONOMY AND THE SCOPE OF THE REPORT III. SUMMARY OF PRINCIPAL RECOMMENDATIONS A. Major Programs, 9 1. Advanced X-Ray Astrophysics Facility, 9 2. Cosmic-Ray Studies, 9 3. Facility-Class Instruments for Solar Astronomy within the Spacelab Program, 9 4. Augmentation of Funding for the Explorer Program, 10 5. Development of Advanced Instrumentation through the Spacelab Program, 10 B. Smaller Programs, 10 1. Solar Neutrino Detectors, 10 2. Development and Deployment of Detectors for Gravitational Waves, 11 3. Increased Support for Theoretical High-Energy Astrophysics, 11 4. Support of Rocket and Balloon Programs, 12 5. Support for Air-Shower Studies, 12 IV. X-RAY ASTRONOMY A. Introduction, 12 . . x~ ~ ~ 1 1 2 9 12

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B. Progress during the 1970's, 14 1. Major Achievements, 14 2. State of Knowledge, 17 3. State of Instrumentation, 24 C. Scientific Goals for the 1980's, 25 1. Low-Luminosity Galactic Sources, 26 2. High-Luminosity Galactic Sources, 26 3. Globular Clusters, 27 4. Supernova Remnants, 27 5. Interstellar Medium, 27 6. Normal Galaxies, 27 7. Active Galactic Nuclei, 28 8. Clusters of Galaxies, 28 9. The X-Ray Background, 28 D. Inventory of Present or Approved Resources, 29 Opportunities and Requirements for Future Programs, 30 1. Large X-Ray Observatories, 31 2. Explorer Missions, 33 3. Long-Duration Balloon Flights, 36 4. Spacelab, 36 5. Sounding Rockets, 37 6. Supporting Research and Technology, Including Balloons, 37 7. Theory and Data Analysis, 38 V. EXTREME-ULTRAVIOLET ASTRONOMY A. Introduction, 38 B. Scientific Goals for the 1980's, 39 1. Stellar Chromospheres, Transition Regions, Coronas, and Flares, 39 2. Cataclysmic Variable Stars and Magnetic White Dwarfs, 40 3. Hot White Dwarfs, 41 4. The Interstellar Medium, 41 C. Inventory of Present or Approved Resources, 42 D. New Facilities Proposed for the 1980's, 42 E. Summary and Recommendations, 43 GAMMA-RAY ASTRONOMY A. Introduction, 43 B. Progress during the 1970's, 44 C. Scientific Goals for the 1980's, 47 1. Compact Objects, 48 2. Gamma-Ray Lines from the Products of Nucleosynthesis, 48 x~v 38 43

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3. Gamma-Ray Bursts and Other Transient Phenomena, 49 4. Galactic Gamma-Ray Emission, 49 5. Extragalactic Gamma Rays, 50 D. Inventory of Present or Approved Resources, 50 E. Comparison of Goals with Present or Approved Resources, 52 F. Opportunities and Requirements for New Programs, 53 1. Gamma-Ray Transient Explorer, 53 2. Advanced Gamma-Ray Experiments, 54 3. Ground-Based Instruments for Very- High-Energy Gamma-Ray Observations, 54 4. Supporting Research and Development, 55 VII. COSMIC-RAY ASTRONOMY A. Introduction, 55 B. Progress during the 1970's, 58 1. Instrumentation and Vehicles, 58 2. Scientific Accomplishments, 60 C. Scientific Goals for the 1980's, 62 1. Isotopic Composition from Hydrogen through Nickel, 62 2. Elemental Composition of the Ultra- heavy Nuclei, 62 3. Elemental Composition at High Energies, 63 4. Energy Spectrum of Electrons at High Energies, 63 5. The Composition and Origins of Ultra-High-Energy Cosmic Rays, 64 6. Low-Energy Cosmic Rays (<300 MeV/Nucleon) in Interstellar Space, 64 7. Solar-System Cosmic Rays, 64 D. Inventory of Present or Approved Resources, 65 1. Small Satellites and Space Probes, 65 2. Large Spacecraft, 65 3. Space Shuttle, 65 4. Balloons, 66 5. Air-Shower Detectors, 66 E. Recommendations for the 1980's, 66 1. The Cosmic-Ray Platform, 66 2. Missions outside the Magnetosphere, 67 3. Deep-Space Missions, 68 4. Balloons, 68 5. Air-Shower Observations, 69 xv 55

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VIII. HIGH-ENERGY SOLAR ASTRONOMY A. Introduction, 69 B. Progress during the 1970' s, 72 1. General Features of the Solar Atmosphere, 72 2 . Transient Events, 7 5 3. Long-Term Variability, 76 Scientific Objectives of High-Energy Solar Astronomy, 7 7 D. Inventory of Present or Approved Resources, 78 E. Capabilities of Present or Approved Resources, 79 F. New Facilities and Programs for the 1980' s, 79 1. Shuttle Facilities, 8 0 2. Solar Coronal Explorer, 81 3. Interplanetary Laboratory (IPL), 8 2 4. Advanced Solar Observatory, 82 5. Other Missions and Programs of Significance to Solar Physics, 82 G. Summary and Principal Recommendations, 8 3 IX. NEUTRINO ASTRONOMY A. Low-Energy Neutrinos, 85 1. Introduction, 85 2. Progress during the 1970's, 8 5 3. Scientific Goals: Present and Future Programs, 86 4. Research in Other Countries, 87 B. Intermediate-Energy Neutrinos, 87 1. Introduction, 87 2. Inventory of Present Resources, 8 7 3. Scientific Goals and Future Programs, 88 C. High-Energy Neutrinos, 88 1. Introduction, 88 2. Present and Future Programs, 89 to ~ X. GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE ASTRONOMY A. Introduction, 90 1. Verify the Existence of Gravi- tational Waves and Use Them to Test the General Theory of Relativity, 90 2. Harness Gravitational Waves for Observational Astronomy, 90 Progress during the 1970's, 92 1. Ground-Based Detectors, 92 xvi 69 84 90

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D. 2. The Earth as a Detector, 93 3. Doppler Tracking of Spacecraft, 93 4. The Binary Pulsar, 94 5. Gravitational-Wave Theory, 94 Inventory of Present or Approved Resources, 94 Recommendations for the 1980's, 95 1. Ground-Based Detector Program, 95 2. Space-Based Detectors, 96 3. Theoretical Studies, 97 2 ULTRAVIOLET, OPTICAL, AND INFRARED ASTRONOMY 98 I. SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS A. Recommendations for Major Initiatives, 98 B. Scientific Achievements and Opportunities, 101 98 II. HIGHLIGHTS OF ASTRONOMY IN THE 1970'S 103 A. Management, Facilities, and Instrumentation, 103 B. Scientific Programs, 107 1. Galactic Astronomy, 107 2. Extragalactic Astronomy, 114 3. Solar Astronomy, 118 III. SCIENCE OPPORTUNITIES FOR THE 1980's A. Introduction, 119 B. Scientific Programs, 121 1. Galactic Astronomy, 121 2. Extragalactic Astronomy, 126 3. Astrometry, 130 4. Solar Physics, 131 IV. DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF THE WOIR PROGRAM FOR THE 1980'S A. Major Recommendations, 135 1. The 15-Meter New Technology Telescope and Closely Related Projects, 135 2. A Large Deployable Reflector in Space, 147 Far-Ultraviolet Spectrograph in Space, 152 4. Advanced Solar Observatory, 154 5. Requirements for Improved Detectors and Instrumentation in the 1980's, 155 XV11 135

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B. Endorsement of Continuing NASA Programs, 161 1. The Space Telescope, 161 2. m e NASA Infrared Astronomy Program, 162 3. Solar Optical Telescope, 164 C. Recommendations for Other Outstanding Programs and Projects for the 1980's, 166 1. Solar-Physics Program, 167 2. Sky Surveys Needed to Support Major Missions, 169 3. Planetary Observations, 172 4. Observatory Support, 173 5. 2.5-5-Meter Telescope Program, 175 6. Moderate Cost Space Missions, 176 V. PROJECTIONS INTO THE FUTURE A. Management Considerations, 178 B. Instrumentation in the 1990's, 180 C. The Direction of Scientific Research in the 1990's, 183 178 1. Large Gains in Angular Resolution, 184 2. Increased Light-Gathering Power, 186 3. Increased Capability for Study of Objects with Low Surface Brightness, 186 VI. EPILOGUE APPENDIX 2.A TELESCOPES FOR WOIR APPENDIX 2.B FOCAL-PLANE INSTRUMENTATION AND DETECTORS 3 RADIO ASTRONOMY I. INTRODUCTION: SCOPE OF THE REPORT II. SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS A. Highest Priority, 212 B. Other Recommendations, 213 C. General Recommendations, 214 III. DESCRIPTION OF RECOMMENDED PROJECTS AND FACILITIES A. Very-Long-Baseline (VLB) Array, 214 B. 10-Meter Submillimeter-Wave Telescope, 217 . . XV111 188 189 197 211 211 212 214

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I. C. Space VLBI, 219 1. State of Technological Readiness, 222 2. Elliptic Orbit Studies, 223 3. Cost Estimates, 223 D. 100-Meter Telescope, 224 E. 10-pm Heterodyne Interferometer, 226 F. Steps toward a Submillimeter Telescope in Space, 227 G. Solar Radio Astronomy, 227 H. A Millimeter-Wave Telescope in the Southern Hemisphere, 228 Upgrading National Facilities, 228 SCIENTIFIC PRIORITIES A. Cosmology, 229 B. Galaxies, 235 C. Quasars and Galactic Nuclei, 237 D. Interstellar Matter and Star Formation, 243 E. Stars and Pulsars, 249 F. The Sun, 253 G. The Planets, 256 REFERENCE TO LIST OF RADIO AND RADAR ASTRONOMY OBSERVATORIES 229 4 THEORETICAL AND LABORATORY ASTROPHYSICS 258 259 I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS 259 A. Theoretical Astrophysics, 259 B. Laboratory Astrophysics, 260 II. THEORETICAL ASTROPHYSICS A. The Nature and Role of Theory in Astrophysics, 262 B. Accomplishments of the 1970's, 267 C. Scientific Questions for the 1980's, 271 D. The Current State of Theoretical Astrophysics, 274 1. The Impact of the Greenstein Report, 274 2. Current Resources for Theoretical Astrophysics, 275 E. Recommendations for Theoretical Astrophysics, 279 262 xix

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III. LABORATORY ASTROPHYSICS A. Atomic and Molecular Physics and Chemistry, 286 B. Nuclear Physics, 290 C. Elementary-Particle Physics, 293 D. Solid-State Physics and Chemistry, 294 E. The Physics of Condensed Matter, 295 F. Plasma Physics, 296 G. Fluid Mechanics, 297 H. Recommendations for Laboratory Astrophysics, 298 5 DATA PROCESSING AND COMPUTATIONAL FACILITIES I. INTRODUCTION II. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS THE TREND TOWARD DECENTRALIZATION IV. THEORETICAL COMPUTING V. IMAGE PROCESSING AND ANALYSIS VI. DATA ARCHIVING ASTRONOMICAL DATA BASES VIII. TELECOMMUNICATIONS IX. SPECIALIZED ARCHITECTURES APPENDIX 5.A: THE "CANONICAL" SYSTEM 6 ORGANIZATION, EDUCATION, AND PERSONNEL I. SUMMARY OF RECOMMENDATIONS A. Maintenance of Scientific Talent, 334 B. Other Issues in the Practice of Astronomy, 335 1. Personnel, 335 2. Education, 336 3. Organization, 337 XX 286 302 302 305 307 309 315 324 326 327 329 330 334 334

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II. MAINTENANCE OF SCIENTIFIC TALENT 338 III. OTHER ISSUES IN THE PRACTICE OF ASTRONOMY 350 A. Personnel, 350 B. Education, 351 C. Organization, 355 IV. ASTRONOMY AND THE ASTRONOMERS IN THE 1970'S 361 A. The Astronomical Profession in 1979, 362 B. The Astronomical "Pipeline", 363 C. Trends with Time, 368 1. Is There a Job Crisis?, 369 2. The Changing Relationship between Physics and Astronomy, 372 3. What Happens to Those Who Leave Astronomy?, 375 4. Who Pays Astronomers' Salaries?, 376 5. The Future, 377 6. Causes of the Problem, 378 7. Possible Grounds for Optimism, 382 8. Grounds for Pessimism: Possible Markets That Don't Exist, 387 D. Research Trends, 389 E. International Cooperation, 391 F. Astronomical Facilities, 397 G. Public Communication, 400 1. Planetaria, 400 2. Magazines, 401 3. Books, 401 4. Media, 401 5. Evening Programs, 402 6. Public Lectures, 402 7. Amateur Activities, 402 H. Funding Trends, 403 1. Introduction, 403 2. Astronomy's Competitive Position, 404 3. NASA Funding for Astronomy, 404 4. NSF Funding for Astronomy, 409 APPENDIX 6.A APPENDIX A ABBREVIATIONS USED IN TEXT 414 439

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