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Table A4–1 Disease Scenarios for CMV Infection in Infants

 

No. of Cases

% of Cases

Committee HUI Values

Duration (years)

Asymptomatic at birth

36,000

90.0%

1.00

 

Asymptomatic at birth: neurologic sequelae

5,400

13.5%

 

 

neurologic sequelae (especially deafness) (15% of asymptomatic): for normal lifespan

 

 

0.89

26.854 (discounted quality adjusted life expectancy at 6 months)

Symptomatic at birth

4,000

10.0%

 

 

initial infection (hospitalization)

 

 

0.50

0.0384 (14 days)

death (10% of symptomatic)

 

1.0%

0.00

 

Symptomatic at birth: mild sequelae

360

0.9%

 

 

mild sequelae (deaf, blind, mild retardation) (10% of survivors): for normal lifespan

 

 

0.89

26.854 (discounted quality adjusted life expectancy at 6 months)

Symptomatic at birth: severe sequelae

3,240

8.1%

 

 

severe sequelae (severe mental retardation) (90% of survivors): for 20-year period

 

 

0.48

20

death by age 20

 

 

0.00

23.955 (discounted quality adjusted life expectancy at age 20)

VACCINE DEVELOPMENT

The committee assumed that the development of a CMV vaccine is feasible and that licensure can occur within 7 years. The estimates for the model are that 360 million needs to be invested. Table 4–1 summarizes vaccine development assumptions for all vaccines considered in this report.

VACCINE PROGRAM CONSIDERATIONS

Target Population

The committee’s model assumes that immunization with this vaccine will occur during puberty. As described in the body of the report, for these purposes that is 12 years of age. Both males and females would receive the immunization.



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