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Table A10–2 Disease Scenarios for Histoplasma Infection

 

No. of Cases

% of Cases

Committee HUI Values

Duration (years)

Total Deaths

138

 

Total Cases (new symptomatic and asymptomatic infections)

500,000

 

Asymptomatic

 

90%

1.00

 

Flu-like illness

 

5.0%

0.90

0.0384 (14 days)

Pneumonitis: outpatient only

 

3.5%

0.78

0.0384 (14 days)

Pneumonitis: w/ inpatient

 

0.9%

 

inpatient care

 

0.67

0.0274 (10 days)

outpatient care

 

0.78

0.0384 (14 days)

Disseminated histoplasmosis

 

0.5%

 

disseminated intravascular coagulation, splenomegaly, hepatomegaly, fever

 

0.39

0.0192 (7 days)

recovery

 

0.90

0.2500 (3 months)

Chronic pulmonary

 

0.1%

 

symptomatic, untreated

 

0.90

0.1667 (2 months)

outpatient treatment

 

0.90

0.7500 (9 months)

RESULTS

If a vaccine program for H. capsulatum were implemented today and the vaccine was 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the QALYs gained would be 1,200. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal efficacy and utilization and including time and monetary costs until a vaccine program is implemented, the annualized present value of the QALYs gained would be 35.

If a vaccine program for H. capsulatum were implemented today and the vaccine was 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the health care costs saved would be $29.7 million. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal efficacy and utilization and including time and monetary costs until a vaccine program is implemented, the annualized present value of the health care costs saved would be $860,000.

If a vaccine program for H. capsulatum were implemented today and the vaccine was 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the program cost would be $390 million. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal efficacy and utilization and including time and monetary costs until a vaccine program is implemented, the annualized present value of the program cost would be $12.7 million.



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