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VACCINE DEVELOPMENT

The committee assumed that the development of an NMB vaccine is feasible and that licensure can occur within the middle of the time frame within the charge. The estimates for the model are that it will take 7 years until licensure and that $300 million needs to be invested. Table 4–1 summarizes vaccine development assumptions for all vaccines considered in this report.

VACCINE PROGRAM CONSIDERATIONS

Target Population

The committee’s model assumes that immunization with this vaccine will occur only during infancy. It is estimated that 90% of infants will receive the immunization.

Vaccine Schedule, Efficacy, and Costs

The committee estimated that this would be a relatively low-cost vaccine, costing $50 per dose. Vaccine administration would cost an additional $10. The committee has accepted default assumptions that this vaccine will require a series of 3 doses and that effectiveness will be 75%. Table 4–1 summarizes vaccine program assumptions for all vaccines considered in this report.

RESULTS

If a vaccine program for N. meningitidis B were implemented today and the vaccine were 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the QALYs gained would be 2,300. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal efficacy and utilization and including time and monetary costs until a vaccine program is implemented, the annualized present value of the QALYs gained would be 1,100. The mortality accounts for a large portion of the lost QALYs, due primarily to the deaths in children and infants. QALY loss associated with morbidity is largely due to the lifetime sequelae associated with both meningitis and bacteremia.

If a vaccine program for N. meningitidis B were implemented today and the vaccine was 100% efficacious and utilized by 100% of the target population, the annualized present value of the health care costs saved would be $6 million. Using committee assumptions of less-than-ideal efficacy and utilization and



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