. "Overview of Analytic Approach and Results." Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Decisionmaking. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2000.
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Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Decisionmaking
TABLE 4–3 Assumptions and Results of “Vaccine X” Analyses
Vaccine X
Case 1: Mild/Moderate Illness with Deaths, Uniform Ages
Case 2: Mild/Moderate Illness with Deaths, in Children
Case 3: Mild/Moderate Illness with Deaths, in the Elderly
Cases
100,000/yr
100,000/yr
100,000/yr
Age-specific incidence
uniform
all<5
all 65+
Deaths (from acute infection)
1%
1%
1%
Morbidity scenarios
Mild scenario
50%
50%
50%
Moderate scenario
50%
50%
50%
Severe scenario
0%
0%
0%
Permanent impairment
0%
0%
0%
Target Population
infants
infants
infants
(infants, adolescents, etc.)
4,000,000
4,000,000
4,000,000
Cost of Vaccine/dose
$50
$50
$50
Discount Rates
Health benefits
3%
3%
3%
Costs
3%
3%
3%
a. Immediately available vaccine (100% efficacy and use, no development cost or time)
$/QALY
$89,660
$18,580
$837,629
QALYs to be gained
7,027
25,826
826
Net cost
$630,009,848
$479,838,815
$692,003,742
Cost of care saved
$89,990,152
$240,161,185
$27,996,258
Delivery costs
$720,000,000
$720,000,000
$720,000,000
Development costs
$0
$0
$0
b. Immediately available vaccine with likely effect and use (no development cost or time)
$/QALY
$123,816
$27,873
$1,128,135
Net cost
$587,256,647
$485,891,200
($608,845,879)
Cost of care saved
$60,743,353
$162,108,800
$18,897,474
Delivery costs
$648,000,000
$648,000,000
$648,000,000
Development costs
$0
$0
$0
c. Vaccine available, expected use, and effectiveness with addition of development cost and time
$/QALY
$125,980
$28,462
$1,146,543
QALYs to be gained
3,327
12,227
391
Net cost
$419,089,997
$347,994,312
$448,439,854
Cost of care saved
$42,604,166
$113,699,851
$13,254,308
Delivery costs
$454,494,162
$454,494,162
$454,494,162
Development costs
$7,200,000
$7,200,000
$7,200,000
NOTE: “C” is the primary analysis reported in the results section
