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TABLE 4–3 Assumptions and Results of “Vaccine X” Analyses

Vaccine X

Case 1: Mild/Moderate Illness with Deaths, Uniform Ages

Case 2: Mild/Moderate Illness with Deaths, in Children

Case 3: Mild/Moderate Illness with Deaths, in the Elderly

Cases

100,000/yr

100,000/yr

100,000/yr

Age-specific incidence

uniform

all<5

all 65+

Deaths (from acute infection)

1%

1%

1%

Morbidity scenarios

 

Mild scenario

50%

50%

50%

Moderate scenario

50%

50%

50%

Severe scenario

0%

0%

0%

Permanent impairment

0%

0%

0%

Target Population

infants

infants

infants

(infants, adolescents, etc.)

4,000,000

4,000,000

4,000,000

Cost of Vaccine/dose

$50

$50

$50

Discount Rates

 

Health benefits

3%

3%

3%

Costs

3%

3%

3%

a. Immediately available vaccine (100% efficacy and use, no development cost or time)

$/QALY

$89,660

$18,580

$837,629

QALYs to be gained

7,027

25,826

826

Net cost

$630,009,848

$479,838,815

$692,003,742

Cost of care saved

$89,990,152

$240,161,185

$27,996,258

Delivery costs

$720,000,000

$720,000,000

$720,000,000

Development costs

$0

$0

$0

b. Immediately available vaccine with likely effect and use (no development cost or time)

$/QALY

$123,816

$27,873

$1,128,135

Net cost

$587,256,647

$485,891,200

($608,845,879)

Cost of care saved

$60,743,353

$162,108,800

$18,897,474

Delivery costs

$648,000,000

$648,000,000

$648,000,000

Development costs

$0

$0

$0

c. Vaccine available, expected use, and effectiveness with addition of development cost and time

$/QALY

$125,980

$28,462

$1,146,543

QALYs to be gained

3,327

12,227

391

Net cost

$419,089,997

$347,994,312

$448,439,854

Cost of care saved

$42,604,166

$113,699,851

$13,254,308

Delivery costs

$454,494,162

$454,494,162

$454,494,162

Development costs

$7,200,000

$7,200,000

$7,200,000

NOTE: “C” is the primary analysis reported in the results section



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