. "Overview of Analytic Approach and Results." Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Decisionmaking. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2000.
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Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Decisionmaking
Vaccine X
Case 7: Mild/Moderate Illness, No Deaths, Uniform Ages
Case 8: Mild/Moderate Illness, No Deaths, Uniform Ages, High Incidence
Case 9: No Deaths with Moderate/Severe Disease, Impairment
Cases
100,000 /yr
10,000,000 /yr
100,000 /yr
Age-specific incidence
uniform
uniform
uniform
Deaths (from acute infection)
none
none
none
Morbidity scenarios
Mild scenario
50%
50%
0%
Moderate scenario
50%
50%
50%
Severe scenario
0%
0%
50%
Permanent impairment
0%
0%
1%
Target Population
infants
infants
infants
(infants, adolescents, etc)
4,000,000
4,000,000
4,000,000
Cost of Vaccine/dose
$50
$50
$50
Discount Rates
Health benefits
3%
3%
3%
Costs
3%
3%
3%
a. Immediately available vaccine (100% efficacy and use, no development cost or time)
$/QALY
$2,597,233
($341,305)
$10,174
QALYs to be gained
$243
$24,257
$3,623
Net cost
$630,009,848
($8,279,015,232)
$36,857,314
Cost of care saved
$89,990,152
$8,999,015,232
$683,142,686
Delivery costs
$720,000,000
$720,000,000
$720,000,000
Development costs
$0
$0
$0
b. Immediately available vaccine with likely effect and use (no development cost or time)
$/QALY
$3,586,639
($331,411)
$76,420
Net cost
$587,256,647
($5,426,335,282)
$186,878,687
Cost of care saved
$60,743,353
$6,074,335,282
$461,121,313
Delivery costs
$648,000,000
$648,000,000
$648,000,000
Development costs
$0
$0
$0
c. Vaccine available, expected use, and effectiveness with addition of development cost and time
$/QALY
$3,649,335
($330,784)
$80,618
QALYs to be gained
115
11,484
1,715
Net cost
$419,089,997
($3,798,722,390)
$138,272,951
Cost of care saved
$42,604,166
$4,260,416,552
$323,421,211
Delivery costs
$454,494,162
$454,494,162
$454,494,162
Development costs
$7,200,000
$7,200,000
$7,200,000
NOTE: “C” is the primary analysis reported in the results section
