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Vaccine X

Case 7: Mild/Moderate Illness, No Deaths, Uniform Ages

Case 8: Mild/Moderate Illness, No Deaths, Uniform Ages, High Incidence

Case 9: No Deaths with Moderate/Severe Disease, Impairment

Cases

100,000 /yr

10,000,000 /yr

100,000 /yr

Age-specific incidence

uniform

uniform

uniform

Deaths (from acute infection)

none

none

none

Morbidity scenarios

 

Mild scenario

50%

50%

0%

Moderate scenario

50%

50%

50%

Severe scenario

0%

0%

50%

Permanent impairment

0%

0%

1%

Target Population

infants

infants

infants

(infants, adolescents, etc)

4,000,000

4,000,000

4,000,000

Cost of Vaccine/dose

$50

$50

$50

Discount Rates

 

Health benefits

3%

3%

3%

Costs

3%

3%

3%

a. Immediately available vaccine (100% efficacy and use, no development cost or time)

$/QALY

$2,597,233

($341,305)

$10,174

QALYs to be gained

$243

$24,257

$3,623

Net cost

$630,009,848

($8,279,015,232)

$36,857,314

Cost of care saved

$89,990,152

$8,999,015,232

$683,142,686

Delivery costs

$720,000,000

$720,000,000

$720,000,000

Development costs

$0

$0

$0

b. Immediately available vaccine with likely effect and use (no development cost or time)

$/QALY

$3,586,639

($331,411)

$76,420

Net cost

$587,256,647

($5,426,335,282)

$186,878,687

Cost of care saved

$60,743,353

$6,074,335,282

$461,121,313

Delivery costs

$648,000,000

$648,000,000

$648,000,000

Development costs

$0

$0

$0

c. Vaccine available, expected use, and effectiveness with addition of development cost and time

$/QALY

$3,649,335

($330,784)

$80,618

QALYs to be gained

115

11,484

1,715

Net cost

$419,089,997

($3,798,722,390)

$138,272,951

Cost of care saved

$42,604,166

$4,260,416,552

$323,421,211

Delivery costs

$454,494,162

$454,494,162

$454,494,162

Development costs

$7,200,000

$7,200,000

$7,200,000

NOTE: “C” is the primary analysis reported in the results section



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