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Vaccine X

Case 10: Discounting for Costs Only

Case 11: No Discounting

Cases

100,000/yr

100,000/yr

Age-specific incidence

uniform

uniform

Deaths (from acute infection)

1%

1%

Morbidity scenarios

 

Mild scenario

50%

50%

Moderate scenario

50%

50%

Severe scenario

0%

0%

Permanent impairment

0%

0%

Target Population

infants

infants

(infants, adolescents, etc)

4,000,000

4,000,000

Cost of Vaccine/dose

$50

$50

Discount Rates

 

Health benefits

0%

0%

Costs

3%

0%

a. Immediately available vaccine (100% efficacy and use, no development cost or time)

$/QALY

$16,671

$12,305

QALYs to be gained

$37,790

$37,790

Net cost

$630,009,848

$465,000,000

Cost of care saved

$89,990,152

$255,000,000

Delivery costs

$720,000,000

$720,000,000

Development costs

$0

$0

b. Immediately available vaccine with likely effect and use (no development cost or time)

$/QALY

$23,022

$18,656

Net cost

$587,256,647

$475,875,000

Cost of care saved

$60,743,353

$172,125,000

Delivery costs

$648,000,000

$648,000,000

Development costs

$0

$0

c. Vaccine available, expected use, and effectiveness with addition of development cost and time

$/QALY

$16,430

$18,656

QALYs to be gained

25,508

25,508

Net cost

$419,089,997

$475,875,000

Cost of care saved

$42,604,166

$172,125,000

Delivery costs

$454,494,162

$648,000,000

Development costs

$7,200,000

$0

NOTE: “C” is the primary analysis reported in the results section



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