. "Overview of Analytic Approach and Results." Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Decisionmaking. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press, 2000.
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Vaccines for the 21st Century: A Tool for Decisionmaking
Vaccine X
Case 10: Discounting for Costs Only
Case 11: No Discounting
Cases
100,000/yr
100,000/yr
Age-specific incidence
uniform
uniform
Deaths (from acute infection)
1%
1%
Morbidity scenarios
Mild scenario
50%
50%
Moderate scenario
50%
50%
Severe scenario
0%
0%
Permanent impairment
0%
0%
Target Population
infants
infants
(infants, adolescents, etc)
4,000,000
4,000,000
Cost of Vaccine/dose
$50
$50
Discount Rates
Health benefits
0%
0%
Costs
3%
0%
a. Immediately available vaccine (100% efficacy and use, no development cost or time)
$/QALY
$16,671
$12,305
QALYs to be gained
$37,790
$37,790
Net cost
$630,009,848
$465,000,000
Cost of care saved
$89,990,152
$255,000,000
Delivery costs
$720,000,000
$720,000,000
Development costs
$0
$0
b. Immediately available vaccine with likely effect and use (no development cost or time)
$/QALY
$23,022
$18,656
Net cost
$587,256,647
$475,875,000
Cost of care saved
$60,743,353
$172,125,000
Delivery costs
$648,000,000
$648,000,000
Development costs
$0
$0
c. Vaccine available, expected use, and effectiveness with addition of development cost and time
$/QALY
$16,430
$18,656
QALYs to be gained
25,508
25,508
Net cost
$419,089,997
$475,875,000
Cost of care saved
$42,604,166
$172,125,000
Delivery costs
$454,494,162
$648,000,000
Development costs
$7,200,000
$0
NOTE: “C” is the primary analysis reported in the results section
