expectancy as lower-middle-income countries such as Honduras, Peru, the Philippines, and Turkey in 1990.

Age and Sex Structure of Mortality in the NIS

As noted earlier, many of the NIS countries show an uncommon pattern of relatively moderate infant and child mortality and high adult mortality. These age patterns of mortality deviate significantly from those of standard demographic models. The chapters of this volume represent the most comprehensive description and analysis of this unique mortality profile to date.

The chapter by Murray and Bobadilla uses a simple scatter diagram of countries by male child mortality (5q0) and male adult mortality (45q15) for all of the NIS countries and Central Europe to reveal three mortality profiles. The two extreme profiles summarize the predominant profiles in the NIS, found in geographically contiguous countries: the first has moderate child mortality and high adult male mortality, whereas the second has high child mortality and moderate adult mortality. The first profile characterizes Russia, the Baltic states, other European countries, and Kazakstan, and the second is typical in the other Central Asian states, Azerbaijan, and Armenia. Although the second is consistent with the income per capita of the countries affected and is relatively common in many middle-income countries, the first is rare and a direct result of mortality reversals documented in the NIS over the past 30 years. (The intermediate profile represents Eastern European countries, with low child and low adult mortality.) A mortality summary profile for the NIS for 1990 is presented in Table 1-3; the trends of the 5 years that followed only accentuated the differences between the two extreme profiles.

The first profile affects approximately 75 percent of the population of the NIS, and so the number of excess deaths (in absolute terms and per 1,000 population) is greater for this profile than for the second. Adult male mortality in the countries of the first profile is about 2 to 2.5 times higher than that of females in either profile. Adult male mortality in the first profile is also 2 times higher than that of the Established Market Economies, a classification of OECD countries excluding Mexico and Turkey (see Table 1-1). Child mortality in the countries of the second profile is almost 3 times higher than in the countries of the first profile and 6 times higher than in the Established Market Economies (see Table 1-3).

A provincial-level analysis presented in the chapter by Vassin and Costello reveals that within Russia, the majority of provinces have fairly similar levels of life expectancy. In general, Northern and Northwestern regions of European Russia, the northern part of the Ural region, a large part of Siberia, and the Far East show the lowest life expectancies. All provinces also have similar patterns of higher male than female and higher rural than urban mortality.

Vassin and Costello examine variation in the age-sex profiles of mortality within Russia and their associated causes of death through typical profiles result-

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