oped republics. The results for females have a certain amount of plausibility: the more-developed republics generally have higher implied expectation of life at birth. For males, however, the implied expectation of life at birth tends to be higher the less developed the republic.

Some of the differences in mortality among the urban populations of these republics reflect differences in the ethnic composition of the urban population, but except for Kazakstan, the rural population of each republic comprises predominantly indigenous populations. Men of European background may consume more alcohol than men from indigenous ethnic groups in Central Asia; thus the indigenous men may have lower mortality from causes directly related to alcohol consumption. However, the magnitude of implied life expectancy for older men from some of the Central Asian republics is so high and so inconsistent with age-specific mortality rates at younger ages as to be out of the range of relationships of mortality at different ages in any well-recorded populations. The data indicate that rural males in Tajikistan have an extremely high implied expectation of life at birth: over 70 years for all age groups from 45-49 through 75-79.

Table 4-2 shows the percentage of people alive at age 20 who would be expected to die before they reached age 60 given the age-specific mortality rates in the given year. The data are shown for the six traditionally Moslem republics; for total, urban, and rural populations; and for 1978-1979 and 1990.

We have argued that the reported mortality rates for men in the Moslem republics are not plausible. At both dates shown in Table 4-2, the working-age mortality of men is reported as greater in urban than in rural areas in every Central Asian republic, Kazakstan, and Azerbaijan. However, the gap lessens over time. In every traditionally Moslem republic, the percentage of men in urban areas dying at working ages declines, while in all of these republics except Kyrgyz and Uzbekistan, the percentage dying in rural areas at working ages increases. This is exactly what should happen if urban data were much more accurate than rural and if the quality of rural data improved over time.

The data for women appear to be much more reasonable than those for men. In every case, except for Azerbaijan and Kazakstan in 1978-1979, the percentage expected to die between ages 20 and 60 is higher in rural than in urban areas, and the values for rural and urban Kazakstan are almost identical. In addition, the more-developed republics tend to have a lower estimated proportion dying between ages 20 and 60.

The health and mortality of the working-age population are a matter of great policy concern in the NIS. Policy planning that accepted as accurate the values shown in Table 4-2 would be in serious error. It is not plausible that men in Tajikistan, the least-developed republic, have the lowest working-age mortality anywhere in the NIS.



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