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Notes

  • 1.  

    We use these terms to distinguish between causes of death that result from specific characteristics of an individual (endogenous factors), such as behavior and genetic makeup, and causes external to an individual (exogenous factors), such as infectious diseases. The "epidemiological transition" refers to observed changes in the epidemiologic profile of diseases afflicting given populations. Generally speaking. this worldwide trend in the primary causes of death is from infectious diseases (exogenous) to chronic diseases and accidents (endogenous).

  • 2.  

    For example, the formula used by Goskomstat in calculating infant mortality rates corresponds better to the annual probability of dying in the first year of life than does the practice of our own National Center for Health Statistics of dividing deaths under age 1 in a given calendar year by births in the same period. Also, something close to a continuous migration register for at least the urban population was (and to our knowledge continues to be) maintained in the former Soviet countries; such a system has never been attempted on a national scale in the United States.

  • 3.  

    Our own experience at the Census Bureau encompasses the better part of this range, driven largely by data availability. An adjustment intermediate between those of Davis and Feshbach on the one hand and Anderson and Silver on the other, based on relational logit models fit to life table probabilities of dying for several East European countries (Kingkade, 1985), was introduced in our world population projections in 1985. Upon the release of data on the age distribution of deaths in infancy, an adjustment of 68 percent was obtained through Hogan's (1979) infant mortality model (Kingkade, 1989), which is a modern successor to the method (Dellaportas, 1965) of Baranov and



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