TABLE 8-2 Difference Between Observed and Expected Mortality by Sex and Age: Russia, 1985-1992 (estimation of deaths prevented by the anti-alcohol campaign in Russia, in thousands)

 

Differences by Age Group

Year

0-14

15-29

30-44

45-59

60-74

75+

Total

Males

1985

0.0

-6.3

-10.9

-9.0

0.5

3.3

-22.4

1986

-2.4

-15.4

-31.6

-43.4

-18.5

-6.4

-117.7

1987

-2.9

-15.9

-34.9

-42.7

-17.4

-6.0

-119.8

1988

-3.5

-11.9

-33.4

-40.5

-18.6

-5.2

-113.1

1989

-5.5

-6.8

-26.2

-30.6

-20.3

-10.8

-100.2

1990

-6.1

-5.9

-21.6

-21.3

-14.0

-8.3

-77.2

1991

-3.0

-2.9

-18.0

-19.8

-20.9

-9.0

-73.6

1992

-4.1

3.5

6.7

6.0

-0.3

-9.6

2.2

1985-1992

-27.5

-61.6

-169.9 

-201.3

-109.5

-52.0 

-621.8

Females

1985

-0.6

-0.9

-1.4

-1.1

4.7

14.6

15.3

1986

-2.2

-2.0

-5.7

-13.0

-8.8

-12.9

-44.6

1987

-2.7

-2.3

-6.9

-13.7

-5.5

-8.6

-39.7

1988

-3.1

-1.4

-6.8

-14.3

-7.6

-3.7

-36.9

1989

-4.4

-0.6

-6.1

-11.8

-14.8

-27.6

-65.3

1990

-4.9

-0.7

-5.6

-9.3

-11.6

-17.6

-49.7

1991

-2.9

0.3

-4.8

-8.7

-17.3

-25.3

-58.7

1992

-3.5

1.5

0.1

-1.9

-4.5

-22.1

-30.4

1985-1992

-24.3

-6.1

-37.2

-73.8

-65.4

-103.2

-310.0

scenarios, the estimate varies from 433,000 to 779,000 deaths prevented for males and from 181,000 to 476,000 deaths prevented for females. Such a wide range reflects serious differences among the three underlying assumptions. It is not clear which scenario should be preferred, so the values presented in Table 8-2 are actually averages of those resulting from all three. The number of prevented deaths for males is twice as high as for females. Even if we exclude the contribution of ages under 15 to the total, the number of prevented deaths from excess alcohol consumption in Russia during the 8 years between 1985 and 1992 is only a little less than 900,000.

For men, the maximum gains of the anti-alcohol campaign occurred in the age group 45 to 59, and for women in the oldest age group. Over the calendar years, the maximum gain for men was in 1988 and for women in 1989. We know that the maximum gains in expectation of life at birth and in the age-standardized death rate concern younger ages and the years 1986 and 1987. These differences



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