Figure 8-8

Observed and predicted death rates at age 30-34 by causes of death (approximation by a linear function of alcohol consumption and time): Russia, males, 19801993.

to be very confident about the quantitative results obtained. (Annex Table 8-1 gives enough data for evaluation of possible errors.) However, the main qualitative result seems to be evident. The rise in adult mortality between 1992 and 1993 cannot be explained solely by alcohol abuse. Some other factors appear to have caused the health conditions of the Russian adult population to deteriorate substantially. Obviously, these factors could be related to the great socioeconomic shocks that occurred in Russia in the 1990s.

Finally, we can examine Russian male mortality in terms of standardized death rates by 25 principal causes of death. The values of standardized death rates for selected causes of death are presented in Table 8-3 for the following years: 1970 (to give an idea of the direction of the long-term trend), 1984, 1987, 1992 (extreme points of mortality variation due to the anti-alcohol campaign), and 1993.

Comparison of these standardized death rates with those of other countries could highlight the main unfavorable features of the Russian pattern of mortality by causes of death. For many causes of death, Russian standardized death rates are among the worst of the developed countries. Of particular note are the extremely high levels of cardiovascular mortality, especially from cerebrovascular



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