ANNEX TABLE 8-1 Coefficients from Regressions of Age-Specific Death Rates (ASDRs) by Cause of Death on Alcohol Consumption and Yearly Trend, 1980-1992

Cause of Death

Alcohol Consumption

Calendar Year

Intercept

r2

Observed ASDR in 1993

Predicted ASDR in 1993

Difference Observed/Predicted

Age 30-34

Infectious/ Parasitic

1.43

(0.21)

N.S.

-1.98

0.81

24.1

18.8

5.3

Neoplasm

N.S.

 

0.34 (0.07)

11.87

0.68

22.9

21.5

1.4

Circulatory

6.26

(0.62)

N.S.

-21.68

0.90

89.0

68.4

20.6

Respiratory

2.80

(0.51)

N.S.

-26.02

0.76

16.4

16.6

-0.2

Digestive

3.16

(0.39)

N.S.

-26.66

0.86

18.7

19.2

-0.5

External causes

44.01

(5.4)

N.S.

242.87

0.88

506.4

395.3

111.1

Other causes

2.81

(0.43)

N.S.

-15.03

0.80

25.7

28.3

-2.6

All causes

61.56

(5.03)

N.S.

322.55

0.93

706.1

570.1

136.0

Age 60-64

Infectious/ Parasitic

3.63

(1.21)

-1.90 (0.42)

16.98

0.85

60.8

44.9

15.9

Neoplasm

N.S.

 

14.81 (1.12)

891.60

0.94

1080.8

1090.9

10.1

Circulatory

68.94

(6.20)

6.09 (2.11

697.70

0.93

2194.4

1776.5

417.9

Respiratory

11.28

(2.54)

-4.95 (0.87)

67.38

0.94

365.6

282.6

83.0

Digestive

7.16

(1.16)

N.S.

32.44

0.79

136.3

146.3

10.0

External causes

43.55

(5.11)

4.18(1.64)

-303.77

0.88

515.20

383.0

132.2

Other causes

3.15

(0.71)

0.67 (0.20)

31.11

0.68

104.4

85.5

18.9

All causes

144.20

(10.61)

18.40 (3.49)

1,457.80

0.94

4,457.50

3,787.9

669.6

NOTE: N.S. = not statistically significant; standard deviations of estimates in parentheses.



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