consumption and recent underlying trends alone if the relationships had remained stable. These calculations are presented separately for ages 30-34 and 60-64.

The simple regression models fit the data for the period 1980-1992 fairly well; the values of the r-square statistic range from 0.68 to 0.94 for the individual regressions. Alcohol consumption is a statistically significant predictor of age-specific death rates for all causes except neoplasm for both age groups. At ages 30-34, the linear trends are statistically insignificant for all causes except neoplasm. At ages 60-64, by contrast, the linear trend is significantly associated with age-specific death rates for most causes

For both age groups, the death rates for all causes combined in 1993 are much larger than would be predicted from these models estimated on the 1980-1992 data: 136 excess deaths per 100,000 for ages 30-34 and 670 excess deaths per 100,000 for ages 60-64. Most of the difference is accounted for by diseases of the circulatory system (20.6 excess deaths for ages 30-34; 418 excess deaths for ages 60-64) and deaths due to external causes ( 111 excess deaths for ages 30-34; 132 excess deaths for ages 60-64).


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