TABLE 9-1 Estimated Percentage of Deaths (All Causes) Due to Smoking in the New Independent States, 1990

 

All Ages

Ages 35-69

Country

Males

Females

Males

Females

Armenia

23

3

38

6

Azerbaijan

14

0

24

0

Belarus

26

1

39

2

Estonia

26

3

38

6

Georgia

15

 

24

2

Kazakstan

28

7

43

12

Kyrgyz

17

4

28

4

Latvia

25

3

38

6

Lithuania

25

3

38

3

Moldova

20

3

31

3

Russian Federation

30

4

42

7

Tajikistan

6

0

14

0

Turkmenistan

9

 

22

0

Ukraine

28

4

40

6

Uzbekistan

8

2

20

5

Former Socialist Economies (all)a

26

4

39

7

a Including the New Independent States.

SOURCE: Peto t al. (1994).

The comparatively high attributable fractions for Kazakstan and Armenia are more difficult to interpret. Lung cancer rates among middle-aged men in Kazakstan are substantially higher than in the United States, for example, and are comparable to those observed elsewhere in Eastern Europe. Death rates from the disease in Armenia are also high, similar to those in Belgium and The Netherlands (see Annex 9-1). If these rates are accurate, and if nonsmoker rates in these two countries are in fact comparable to those of the ACS population, then smoking may indeed be a major cause of death among Armenian and Kazakstani men. In the absence of data on trends in smoking prevalence and consumption, as discussed in the introduction, these estimates cannot be substantiated and should be viewed as very preliminary.4

A second group of countries may be considered as being at an intermediate stage of their tobacco epidemics, with proportionate mortality attributed to smoking varying between about 15 and 20 percent. These countries include Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kyrgyz, and Moldova. Again, the plausibility of these estimates is difficult to assess without detailed knowledge of the smoking history of these populations. However, the estimates are not inconsistent with what has been estimated for Romania ( 18 percent of all male deaths due to smoking), with the



The National Academies | 500 Fifth St. N.W. | Washington, D.C. 20001
Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.
Terms of Use and Privacy Statement