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Cover Illustration: BUMPER finite element model of the International Space Station. Critical items are colored to represent predicted probability of collision with 1 cm diameter and larger debris. Red represents the highest predicted probability of impact and blue the lowest. Source: NASA.
COMMITTEE ON INTERNATIONAL SPACE STATION METEOROID/DEBRIS RISK MANAGEMENT
GEORGE GLEGHORN (chair),
TRW Space and Technology Group (retired), Rancho Palos Verdes, California
DALE ATKINSON,
POD Associates, Inc., Albuquerque, New Mexico
ROBERT CULP,
University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado
DENNIS GRADY,
Applied Research Associates, Albuquerque, New Mexico
MICHAEL GRIFFIN,
Orbital Sciences Corporation, Dulles, Virginia
FREDERICK HAUCK,
International Technology Underwriters, Bethesda, Maryland
NICHOLAS JOHNSON,
Kaman Sciences Corporation, Colorado Springs, Colorado (from October 1, 1995, to April 8, 1996)
THOMAS KELLY, Consultant,
Cutchogue, New York
PAUL KINZEY,
Naval Safety Center, Norfolk, Virginia
Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Staff
Paul Shawcross, Study Director
JoAnn Clayton-Townsend, Aeronautics and Space Engineering Board Director
Victoria Friedensen, Senior Project Assistant
AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ENGINEERING BOARD
JOHN D. WARNER (chair),
The Boeing Company, Seattle, Washington
STEVEN AFTERGOOD,
Federation of American Scientists, Washington, D.C.
GEORGE A. BEKEY,
University of Southern California, Los Angeles, California
GUION S. BLUFORD, JR.,
NYMA, Inc., Brook Park, Ohio
RAYMOND S. COLLADAY,
Lockheed-Martin Astronautics, Denver, Colorado
BARBARA C. CORN,
BC Consulting, Inc., Searcy, Arizona
STEVEN D. DORFMAN,
Hughes Electronics Corporation, Los Angeles, California
DONALD C. FRASER,
Boston University, Boston, Massachusetts
DANIEL HASTINGS,
Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts
FREDERICK HAUCK,
International Technology Underwriters, Bethesda, Maryland
WILLIAM H. HEISER,
United States Air Force Academy, Colorado Springs, Colorado
WILLIAM HOOVER,
U.S. Air Force (retired), Williamsburg, Virginia
BENJAMIN HUBERMAN,
Huberman Consulting Group, Washington, D.C.
BERNARD L. KOFF,
Pratt & Whitney, West Palm Beach, Florida
FRANK E. MARBLE,
California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, California
C. JULIAN MAY,
Technical Operations International, Inc., Kennesaw, Georgia
GRACE M. ROBERTSON,
Douglas Aircraft Company, Long Beach, California
GEORGE SPRINGER,
Stanford University, Stanford, California
Staff
JoAnn Clayton-Townsend, Director
Preface
Protecting the International Space Station (ISS) from meteoroid and debris impact poses a unique challenge because of the station’s large size, high value, and planned long lifetime. To mitigate the meteoroid and debris hazard, the ISS program has developed a strategy involving shielding, collision avoidance, and damage control. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) asked the National Research Council to review this strategy and to recommend changes, where appropriate.
In response, the National Research Council formed the Committee on International Space Station Meteoroid/Debris Risk Management. (The charge to the committee is contained in Appendix A.) The committee found that the meteoroid and debris environment the space station will encounter is increasingly well understood, that the program for shielding ISS modules appears extensive and thorough, and that the development of damage control procedures and hardware has begun. In this report, the committee recommends changes to the ISS meteoroid/debris risk mitigation program that should serve to further strengthen the current program.
Although this report focuses on the shielding, collision avoidance, and damage control measures that the ISS program can take to reduce the hazard posed by meteoroids and debris, it is important to note that the success of these measures will also be affected by the efforts of others to reduce the generation of orbital debris in low Earth orbit. For several years, the United States and other space-faring nations have been working to reduce the production of new orbital debris. Without continued resolute action to minimize the creation of new debris, the hazard to the ISS could rise considerably over the operational lifetime of the station.
The committee wishes to thank the many experts at NASA, the Air Force Space Command, the U.S. Space Command, the Russian Space Research Center Kosmos, RKK Energia, Boeing, and Lockheed-Martin who briefed the committee and provided background information over the course of the study. I would personally like to thank the members of the committee for their time and effort spent on the study and in writing this report. I am also indebted to Paul Shawcross and his staff at the National Research Council for their hard work and leadership throughout the process.
The recent loss of a stabilizing boom on the French Cerise spacecraft due to a debris impact highlights the threat that meteoroids and debris pose to the ISS. Experts working to protect the ISS clearly understand this threat and the effectiveness of various methods to counter it. It is essential for this understanding—including the recognition of where assumptions are unproved, models are uncertain, and protective measures are limited—to be communicated clearly to the upper management of the program. Better information will result in better decisions, and when a multibillion-dollar facility and human lives may be at stake, every effort must be made to ensure that decision makers are armed with the best information available.
George Gleghorn, chair
List of Tables, Figures, and Boxes
TABLE
3-1 |
Comparison of Orbital Debris Models, |
FIGURES
1-1 |
The International Space Station, |
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2-1 |
The ISS program risk matrix, |
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2-2 |
The ISS meteoroid and debris AIT chain of command, |
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2-3 |
The ISS strategy for meteoroid/debris risk mitigation, |
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2-4 |
The PNP requirement tree, |
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2-5 |
BUMPER finite element model of the ISS, |
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3-1 |
Comparison of meteoroid and debris flux in ISS orbit, |
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3-2 |
Comparison of model flux predictions, |
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3-3 |
Comparison of model impact velocity predictions, |
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3-4 |
Data used to create environment models, |
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4-1 |
Projectile interacting with a spaced shield, |
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4-2 |
Effectiveness of Whipple bumper derivatives at various impactor velocities, |
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4-3 |
ISS shield configurations, |
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5-1 |
MSCSurv baseline predictions of probability of loss, |
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5-2 |
MSCSurv predictions of probability of loss if oxygen masks are available, |