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Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise (1997)

Chapter: APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM

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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

APPENDIX D
Scenario Narratives as Provided by the NASA/TFG/SAIC Core Team

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Pushing the Envelope U.S. Economic Competitiveness

Worldwide Demand for Aero Products/Services

Threats to Global Security and/or Quality of Life

Global Trend in Govt. Participation in Society

Strong

High Growth

Low

Low

Summary

The malaise of the late twentieth and early twenty-first century seems like an unpleasant but distant memory. It is 2015 and the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan have reasserted their economic dominance over a world in which free trade, open markets, and democratic government (broadly speaking) reign supreme. A rising global economic tide is gathering many, if not all, ships, even former ''basket cases" in the developing world and the former Soviet Union. The World Trade Organization (WTO) and other multilateral organizations keep markets open and succeed in maintaining favorable conditions for cross-border commerce and finance. The information revolution is in a new, dynamic phase and corporations that have learned to leverage this power invariably lead their respective industries. Society is highly mobile, within the bounds of socioeconomic class and national origins. Highly skilled professionals enjoy extraordinary geographic mobility.

The world is thankfully free of large-scale military conflicts. International rivalries tend to be played out in boardrooms and labs, not military battlefields. Competition is intense, with generally low entry barriers and ample venture capital available for promising new ventures. Consumers possess unprecedented opportunities for financial growth, but are time-impoverished and weary in this highly competitive, pressure-cooker world.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

The pessimists had it wrong. Those dreary, end-of-the-millennium predictions of the U.S.'s (and Europe's) demise were greatly exaggerated. The West was neither dead nor dying. It was troubled, economically, politically and socially. But, as events eventually proved, these problems were not intractable; we would overcome them and rebound with a fury. In fact, notwithstanding our huge debt, aging infrastructure, and slumping wages, the U.S. and Western Europe were rebuilding themselves in a way that would ensure economic growth, income recovery, and technological superiority far into the twenty-first century.

But I am getting ahead of myself. In 2000, it was easy to overlook our underlying competitive strengths. The U.S., as well as Western Europe and Japan, had not yet come to grips with the big problems confronting society, particularly those related to debt, long-term funding of entitlement programs, and unemployment. Existing programs were expensive, rife with inefficiencies, and fiscally insupportable. Political systems were mired in what we call "gridlock" with politicians pursuing votes via painless "solutions" (like restricting immigration, raising minimum wages, etc.) that were at best irrelevant, and often counterproductive. Markets were edgy. Wall Street looked no further than the next quarter's earnings, knowing too well that the status quo was unsustainable.

The twentieth century ended on a troubled international note. Concern centered mostly on Asia. Japan experienced an acute financial crisis and near total economic meltdown that would require several years of debt write-offs and bank restructurings to correct. Substantial growth pains afflicted China. The nation was forced to come to grips with the realities of a globally integrated marketplace in which its participation was desired, but not required. Moreover, its rapid economic growth and modernization increased the flow of knowledge throughout society, fueling discontent especially in urban areas over limits to freedom and political action. Authorities chose stability over democracy. Consequently, China moved toward a form of authoritarian capitalism, which combined highly centralized government control over an increasingly decentralized and private economy.

Meanwhile, as the new century was launched, the Emerging Markets were doing generally well. Korea was, in effect, a developed market and within a few years would be admitted into the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development. India, Brazil, and Indonesia were among the fastest-growing, most dynamic economies anywhere, with rapidly expanding middle classes and affluent populations. Not all were doing equally well, however. Again, China was an inconsistent performer and investors feared that it could suffer political turmoil and a major economic setback. The Middle East was still politically unstable, leaving global energy markets constantly on edge.

Japan's financial market meltdown in 2001 was a crystallizing event — a rallying cry for visionaries who had long argued for fundamental reform. Had the Group of Ten (G-10) central bankers not offered immediate and effective support, Japan's economy would have plunged into a long, deep recession or depression — probably taking the rest of the major markets down with it. But coordinated G-10 action in the form of instant liquidity and commitments of long-term credits staved off a disaster. All was not well, however. Even as Japan's situation began to

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

stabilize, global currency and equity markets were rocked by near-panic buying and selling. More extensive G-10 central bank cooperation ensued with the objective of achieving coordinated stabilization of key currencies. To make this work, all the major countries had to agree to some fairly aggressive fiscal targets.

By 2002, the plan was in place and most of the G-10 stuck to their commitments. Politicians in effect told their respective constituencies, "Look, do this, or we'll end up like Japan, or worse." Most went along, however grudgingly. Constituents deeply feared what would happen if strong medicine were not swallowed. And to a point they were willing to follow the politicians.

The results were startling and far more positive than anyone could have imagined, especially for the U.S.. The Chief Executive and Congress hammered out a far-reaching restructuring of government spending programs, including entitlements like Social Security. The idea was to seize this window of opportunity while it was still possible and restructure the entire business of government in the most politically neutral, socially responsible way possible.

The process was anything but silky smooth. Medicare reform was predictably a political minefield. But in general most everyone perceived the process as fair. Everyone had to give; few gained outright. There were very few loopholes in which the wealthy could take shelter. Consumer advocates kept the lobbyists at bay and the politicians reasonably well behaved. Privatization attenuated economic dislocation, as it provided instant revenue and therefore meant lighter spending cuts. Moreover privatization proceeds covered the investment needed in critical infrastructure, including satellite communications and fiber-optic backbone. These were pitched as exceptional activities, actually, designed to "jump start" markets before fully liberalizing them via privatization.

A mix of market and fiscal incentives helped the public swallow the harsh reform medicine. (In truth, subtle anti-rich appeals helped a lot, too, for the wealthy had the most to lose from the proposals being debated). The tax structure rewarded savings and penalized frivolous consumption. Tax credits were granted for eldercare at home. Various user fees were reviewed and, if necessary, changed to ensure that fees for government goods and services reflected true costs to the public. Conservatives' dream of school coupons succeeded in not only providing choice but also quality education for middle income and (most) children from disadvantaged backgrounds. In major U.S. cities, much public education was effectively outsourced with the help of Catholic and other religious schools.

In retrospect, the sum effect of these major policy shifts would have been limited had U.S. industry not been primed to exploit the improved business environment. In fact, the much maligned "reengineering" and "restructuring" trends of the 1990s proved to be the boot camp of the emerging global business environment. By the late part of the decade, productivity gains were appearing in spades, not only because work forces were slashed to the bone, but because companies were finally growing skilled in applying information technology to all phases of the value chain, from design to distribution. Each wave of new workers was more and more inclined to embrace and innovate information solutions.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Naturally, the Internet was an extraordinary enabler of this "takeoff." Its impact by 1998 was clear even without the rather significant broadband investment that took place in the U.S. and then later in Germany, England, and France after 2000. By 2005, nearly every U.S. household and commercial center was fiber optically connected. The same was true of Europe (by 2010). In both instances, coordinated government-industry investment engendered relatively efficient and harmonious development, with ample commercial space for private entrepreneurial activity and, of course, profits.

These broadband development projects were exceptional in the sense that they were not indicative of a more general move to industrial policies in the U.S. or anywhere. Even socially liberal politicians did not advocate a return to generous welfare policies or state capitalism. Yet, at the same time, there was broad recognition that without the government setting the rules and directing the information infrastructure that either the big, capital intensive work would never get done or it would be badly done, in staccato, and probably chaotic fashion.

By 2005, the market-based restructuring of the U.S. economy was nearly complete. Japan was deep into its own post-crisis restructuring program and the major European countries had their own programs under way. The success of the international organizations during the post-Japan currency scare greatly increased the stock of the WTO. In fact, the WTO played a critical role when the major trading nations could easily have turned protectionist. The WTO not only staved off protectionism, it also accelerated market liberalization as the major trading nations got firmly on their feet.

IT and telecom innovation and expansion accelerated after 2005, as bountiful venture capital fed countless start-up companies offering new products and services for constantly evolving and changing technologies. Businesses ever hungry for efficiency enhancements kept demand high; so did households seeking the latest and greatest and interactive educational and entertainment software that broadband communications could provide. With nearly all U.S. households wired by 2010, two in five white- or pink-collar workers now work from home full time; many more do so part-time.

High levels of global trade drove the development of globally harmonized product standards. Trade itself was global and multilateral in focus. Regional trade groups were not really trade blocs at all; they were more like halfway houses to global trade for newly reforming countries. By 2010, only a handful of significant trading nations had significant tariff and nontariff barriers. Offsets were now second generation — for example, Vietnam requiring them of Chinese companies wanting to sell aviation equipment locally. China pared back its own offset requirements; with its booming economy, China no longer needed them.

Free-trade conditions and the Internet facilitated technology transfer to the new manufacturing and knowledge-based economic zones. Workers on multiple continents were now able to work closely on common (design, engineering, for example) projects. Language and time zone differences were trivial complications to these cross-national, cross-cultural collaborative efforts. U.S. and European-based companies discovered that creating cross-national development teams

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

not only was attractive from a cost standpoint but also ensured high levels of local intellectual content — so critical for a truly global marketplace.

The WTO evolved into an increasingly important international organization, respected by mature and developing nations alike for its fairness and efficient bureaucracy. The IMF became more involved with solvency problems of very poor countries, while the World Bank actively supported free-market infrastructure projects via investment credits and small, short-term equity positions in start-up operations. Private investment continued to be the driving force of infrastructure, however, among other things thanks to highly dynamic venture capital markets and ever-sophisticated risk management tools.

The other major surviving international organization was the UN, whose traditional activities were pruned but continued nonetheless to supply a structure for international peacekeeping and humanitarian relief activities. The U.S. and Europe contributed high-tech weaponry to these police activities. Across the world, the U.S. military presence was significantly downsized and limited primarily to a residual presence in Southeast Asia and the Middle East, which remained subject to low-level instability. Globally, however, it was a time of low weaponry demand.

Free trade and globalization had profound impacts on highly skilled human capital, which could move comparatively easy across borders as major trading nations embraced liberal immigration codes if they enhanced national competitive advantage. Scientists from developing countries trained in the U.S. faced difficult choices when their visas expired: Stay and live reasonably comfortably in the U.S. or go home and make perhaps a small fortune.

The battlefield for power and influence in the world was no longer military but economic in nature. Only small, economically insignificant nations worked out their differences by taking to arms. For all other nations, power resided in the sum of their competitive economic advantages vis-à-vis their trading partners. This was not exactly just "good sport"; competition was typically cutthroat, in the extreme bordering on unethical and even unlawful. For the most part, the major economic powers maintained high intellectual property protection but below them there was widespread piracy and ripping off. The economic cost to the inventing nations was mitigated by the sheer speed of product innovation and the fleetingness of product life cycles.

Nationalism itself was undermined in the global, information-driven economy through a combination of national-to-local "downloading" of funding and program responsibility, and because of the radical decentralization of institutions brought about by the Internet and advanced communications technologies. As goods, services, capital, and in many cases people flowed fluidly across national borders, subnational and cross-national economic zones evolved into the most important sources of economic growth. These New Economic Geographies (NEGs) lacked a formal, juridical identity, but they were real and increasingly important poles of new investment, technological innovation, and job creation. Here in North America, Silicon Valley was a high-tech precursor of the NEG trend. By 2010, there would be NEGs such as the San Diego-Tijuana manufacturing belt, the South Florida-Caribbean commercial area, and the Southeastern Brazil industrial (incorporating Northeastern Argentina) among dozens of others throughout the world. In the developing world, an important demographic result was the

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

redirection of rural emigrants away from old, heavily congested urban areas, toward these booming NEGs. These NEGs required massive amounts of both hard (roads, bridges, rails, airports, power, water, etc.) and soft (housing, hospitals, schools, etc.) infrastructure investment. More than half of these projects were financed through build-operate-own/transfer-type privatization schemes.

Consumers in the mature markets of the U.S., Europe, and Japan are economically healthy for the most part, but not secure. Paradoxically, there is little economic security in this strong, dynamic economic environment. Affluence is widespread but requires enormous time commitment to work and constant skill upgrading. Competition in the workplace is intense and unrelenting. Even in Europe, two-week vacations have become extremely rare; there is money but a paucity of time.

Adding to time poverty, middle- and upper-class mature market consumers (which now count Taiwan, Singapore and Korea among their ranks) manage their own pension, insurance, and benefit programs. The plethora of international investment opportunities has made this much like a potentially lucrative sport — a very addicting one at that. In the absence of government or pension programs, savings rates are high as consumers realize they themselves must provide their own next retirement funding, with bare-bones government help.

Mature market consumers (and to some extent professional/affluent classes in Emerging Markets) are environmentally aware, with strong quality-of-life feelings. Life is demanding, time is short, and few will tolerate having their precious little leisure time ruined by dirty air, polluted lakes, and noisy skies. At the international level, the United Nations Organization for Protecting Environmental Resources (UNOPER) manages a voluntary program in which member nations buy, sell, and barter CO2 "pollution rights." Pollution "credits" are allocated on the basis of industrial development and per capita income. It has the effect of discouraging highly polluting industries from producing in the developed world.

Within mature market countries, market incentives take the form of privatized roadways and bridges, as well as "smart highways" in which automobile operators are charged differential rates for use of highways and bridges. This turns out to be a lucrative new business opportunity. A wide range of other market-based solutions are effectively applied as well. Meanwhile, the scope of the Environmental Resources Management Agency (formerly the Environmental Protection Agency) is radically reduced and different. ERMA now polices a much narrower range of environmental issues — groundwater pollution, for example, and others not handled by the market.

The environmentalism is not ideological; it is personal (some say selfish) and practical in nature. Likewise, mature market consumers are concerned about infectious diseases, which the World Health Organization (WHO) data prove have been on the sharp upswing as many of the more remote developing world "hot zones" have been brought into contact (via commerce, travel, missionary and scientific work) with the more developed population areas. WHO has expanded surveillance of Ebola-type outbreaks in response to several major crises in Africa, South Asia, and even Europe.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Natural and man-made health threats encourage affluent consumers to live far from the sources of these problems. Communication technology allows many to live in safe, environmentally clean planned communities where urban and suburban problems do not have to be faced.

Meanwhile, in the Emerging Markets, rapid economic growth and heightened consumption (gasoline, petroleum products, meat, etc.) have rendered natural resources (especially air and water) extremely vulnerable to contamination or depletion. With limited success, some Emerging Market elites and intellectuals pressure their respective governments to join the global Green movement by embracing high (if not First World) standards of environmental stewardship.

Rapid economic expansion, political reform, and liberal global trade combine to accelerate the growth of Emerging Market middle and affluent classes. Consumption potential is enhanced by the deepening of financial markets and the availability of consumer credit, courtesy of new financial market players such as Citicorp, GE Capital, and Household Finance. The ranks of first-time car buyers expand tremendously. Emerging Market consumers show no loss of appetite for all kinds of consumer goods. And increasingly, especially in Asia, the new middle classes are discovering the wonders of Europe and the Americas. Hundreds of local travel companies now organize tours of London, Paris, Rome, and New York, among other prime destinations.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Scenario Matrix - Pushing the Envelope

Drivers/Scenarios

Pushing the Envelope

World Economy and Market Environment

Dynamic, global economy with highly integrated markets; overall finance stability at macro level, volatility at enterprise level; capital is available but risk adjusted cost of capital; high demand from mature and emerging markets; R&D = small r, Big D; short termism; a large affluent class, growing middle class world-wide; overall low unemployment and flexible labor markets (telecommuting at high end labor).

International Trade Environment

World Trade Organization kind of world establishes and enforces free and fair rules of the global trade game;

second generation offsets between emerged & emerging markets (e.g., China & Vietnam);

few residual regional preferences, EU, NAFTA;

harmonization on navigation, environmental via strong ICAO;

blurring of air line nationality (e.g., AA/BA/USAIR); market determines landing rights, with congestion based pricing in mature markets; privatization of ATC in mature and select emerging markets;

development of internet based open market for airline seats; airlines move to leased aircraft and provision of air services.

Political Instability

Fairly Stable; some low level instability in Middle East (religious / ethnic) and Russia (little border tension); social tension between haves and have-nots.

U.S. Military Requirements

Low level US "police" role under UN auspices, US and Europe contribute high-tech weapon systems to police force; some US military presence in Middle East; problems are local bullies, civil strife; significant reduced basing around world; European unification limits need for strong NATO; some basing in South East Asia; rapid deployment forces; low level of global conflict leads to low armaments demand.

Global Distribution of Power & Technology

Increased number of effective actors; high level of rapid technology diffusion fed by global infonet; still have and have not states and groups; many niche economic powers; information security is problem, particularly in commerce.

Fuels & Fuel Sources

Oil is critical and some Middle East instability; plus

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Pushing the Envelope

 

environment quality issues lead to alternate fuels; market driven access to resources.

US Policy

Basic policy - laissez fair, (in both economic and social policy); tort reform combined with strictly enforced truth in labeling laws; anti-trust laws much more liberally interpreted due to dynamic high-tech information rich nature of economy; bankruptcy laws strictly enforced; tendencies to off-load social responsibilities to state and local governments; minimal government, privatization of services; no deficit/reduced debt, tendency not to subsidize industry; minimum body of law and regulation to support a dynamic free market economy; affluent charities for humanitarian work.

Corporate Structure and Operations

Trend to virtual, global decentralized structures, with mobile contingent labor; technology proliferation is high and dynamic; market share is dynamic, in general very hard to capture share for a long time; 24 hour operations; significantly reduced offsets (some still exist in excess capacity segments or in newly industrialized countries); alliances very important, but flexible, often short term; ownership patterns are dynamic with variable mix of capital sources; corporate governance is often global and virtual; labor competition is intense at high end, but less so at the low end; trend toward converging wage rates world wide.

Environment

This is key quality of life issue; attitudes and solutions to pollution vary across world ranging from don't care to highly engaged in prevention and clean up; often back yard issue that plays out in politics; generally this world is moving toward "green"; as a more affluent society the US is pushing market based environmentalism and marketing green technology world wide.

Public Health

General levels of public health are high and follow quality of life; very serious spikes in global infectious diseases due to high mobility; environmental epidemeology is well funded.

Public Attitude to Technology

Love that stuff; "anywhere, anytime" newness, whimsy, fads; seen as good, as a solution rather than the problem; popular support for "big science".

Education

Global meritocracy, in love with education; education is life long not in discrete chunks; multiple careers; in "sciences" its technical more than basic research; focus on business and

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Pushing the Envelope

 

culture and international business standards; very global and interconnected, some virtual schools; education also is a quality of life activity; funding is from all sources and very high; still an underclass with inadequate education; world class graduate education in the US; because of access to information many people have higher knowledge and interest in many areas including science.

Geographic (Living) Dispersion

More and more people live where they want across the globe, not tied to work location (telecommuting); reduced population in some old urban and suburban environment; still high business travel, but now from highly dispersed locations.

Communications and Information Technology

This is the backbone of the world; it is ubiquitous and the heart of global business and personal life; high bandwidth, mobile, lots of new hardware and application (much of it is useless) very high competition; a lot of turmoil in products and marketing; communication and information security important for personal, business and national security.

Production Cost Performance

Many product components are commodities, but value-added is created through rapid small lot customization and/or very high-tech non-commodity components; business cycles tend to be globally synchronized; ownership patterns are very flexible (time shares, multi-vehicle leases, etc.), very disbursed ownership patterns for transportation products; barriers to entry/exit are very low; many products experience rapid obsolescence.

Technology development and Application

Very, very market driven; global financing instruments are key to R&D (with emphasis on "D"); quality of life drives many new technologies; consumers like technology; short term product environment has low market incentives for R&D with long pay back period; long-term research comes from high risk capital investment and portfolio management but rapid growth environments create new opportunities and challenges.

Time Poverty Leisure Time, Entertainment

Very time constrained in dynamic global economy, but separation of work and play is unclear; a lot of contract labor-work for a while, take a long vacation (implies excellent personal credit management); blurring of education and leisure; options for leisure are open ended; middle class tries to mimic this activity, but with fewer resources; entertainment is huge industry and has expanded

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Pushing the Envelope

 

definition (TV, computer, internet interactive combinations with personalization and ''preference buffers").

Global Transportation Infrastructure

Trend toward privatization of development, ownership, and operation of infrastructure; "smart" (user-friendly) infrastructure; harmonization of standards especially in automation and communications; pay for access - user fees; infrastructure must accommodate low-cost, rapid-time-to-market, optimized production flows; potential for electromagnetic/ frequency congestion; supports rapid response to consumer demand (internet orders/overnight delivery); dynamic mix of transportation modes (e.g., "transportation credit cards/super transport rental company"); high-end market for significantly reduced portal-to-portal travel time and for continuous connectivity.

Safety and Security

Safe global transportation system driven by infonet informed consumers; must be globally harmonized/standardized (ICAO); security threats including data are widely varied and very hard to predict; data security is important because of smart infrastructure.

Access to space

If space is the most cost effective way to solve a problem, global financing will be possible, but, it is likely to be private and entrepreneurial; (note: small "r", BIG "D"); public "big science" programs include continued human and robotic exploration and exploitation of space (possible public/private mix, (e.g., advertising, entertainment)).

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Grounded

U.S. Economic Competitiveness

Worldwide Demand for Aero Products/Services

Threats to Global Security and/or Quality of Life

Global Trend in Govt. Participation in Society

Strong

Low Growth

High

High

Summary

Out of dreadful necessity, the world has replaced "being there" with virtuality. For too many people in too many places the rate and pace of change stripped them of their humanity. Angry, frustrated, bitter, jealous individuals and groups with increasing frequency resorted to unprecedented and unpredictable violence against large masses of people wherever they could be targeted. All forms of mass transit, large public gatherings, dense urban environment (despite onerous and very expensive security measures) are now avoided, if possible. The global economy has, however, avoided collapse and indeed more than risen to the challenge thanks to the infocom revolution. Travel may be but a specter of its past, but massively expanded bandwidth now ties the world far closer than it ever was in the past. All aspects of life, commerce, government, culture, and entertainment flow continuously and globally through the G-net. The economy's vitality is still derived from the rapid pace of technological advance, product innovation, and entrepreneurship. Goods still move great distances through the global economy, occasionally at risk, but goods are expendable; people move only when absolutely necessary. Each day it becomes more amazing what simulation can do.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Global Business in 2020. (New York: Harcourt Brace and Pearce, 2021.) An introductory essay to the second edition.

No matter how elegant are the arguments that "technologies emerge to match the need," there is no getting around the common-sense position that, as a civilization, we have been very lucky. If the terrorplots and mass killings of the mid-2000s had swept through the globe a few decades earlier, democracies might not have survived the need for oppressive police controls to keep societies functioning. Beyond that, the growth of the global free market (and the improvements in worldwide living standards that have ensued) might have been postponed indefinitely. It is unlikely that the more fragile technological and economic systems of that earlier era could have withstood the onslaught of death, terror, and infrastructure destruction that we endured just a few short years ago.

As an interesting (but relevant) example, many in that peaceful and complacent era (1960 through 2005) would have said that it is implausible (perhaps impossible) that a global economy and society could thrive without dependence on the rapid growth of air transport. It was one of those conventional wisdoms — the growth of the global economy and the growth of global aeronautics were synonymous. They were mutually dependent on each other. As the world economy began a serious phase of rapid globalization in the 1990s and early 2000s, it was common, even in periods of economic recession, to forecast the symbiotic growth of aeronautics. It was so obvious. What could stop or replace its central role, especially in the high-growth emerging markets?

This textbook has no history section; and, while I am certain that all readers are familiar with the events of the past twenty years, I wish you to immerse yourselves, briefly, in the mindset of optimism and growth that characterized the late 1990s and early 2000s. It will give you an important perspective on today's business and political climate. It should also teach you never to assume; never assume you can predict even the most "obvious" trends.

The world economy of the late 1990s and early 2000s was growing at unprecedented rates. Moreover, it was a growth pattern characterized by interconnectivity of businesses, organizations, and individuals on a worldwide scale. That dynamic growth and interconnectivity sat on six pillars — the U.S. economy as an early engine of growth, relative global peace, free trade, telecommunications, fast and reliable transportation, and efficient global capital markets. While the mature market economies of North America, Europe, and Japan grew steadily, they pumped capital into the rapidly developing emerging markets of Southeast Asia (SEA) and Latin America. Products were manufactured and assembled on a global scale and sold into the mature affluence of the Northern industrial powers and into the burgeoning middle classes of the emerging markets.

The U.S. economy did well during this period and the government spent some of its wealth putting its economic and social house in order. While industries globalized, consolidated, and spun off multiple service sector support firms, the government used the increased revenues from

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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corporate and income taxes to end the deficit and pay down the debt substantially. If the society was spending too little on infrastructure and alternatives to conventional technologies, … well, those issues would either respond to market forces or be dealt with in the coming years. The U.S. shifted farther into a modestly regulated economy with market incentives for enforcement. While some serious "transition" inequities arose in social services,1 the evolution of safety-net spending to the states went relatively smoothly. This was a time of global business interests and minimalist government enabled by a fairly peaceful world.

Europe and Japan continued to lag somewhat under the burden of higher and more intractable public debt, but nevertheless took part in the globalizing economy. They, too, saw their industries move manufacturing abroad, expanding to the promise of rapidly growing markets, while profits flowed back home. Like U.S. industries, the Europeans tended to invest in all regions, while the Japanese had a tendency to focus on SEA. This is a good time, however, to point out that it was not so much the European or Japanese societies that did this investing. It was the work of the industries and services that had originated there. It is useful to remember that, while the brief recession of 2003 hit the U.S., Europe, and Japan fairly hard, the (now) global industries that had once been called U.S. or European suffered very little.

Industries were becoming truly global organizations, yearly increasing the social distance between the corporation and the country where it had originated. Businesses were investing everywhere they saw the potential for market growth or lower production costs. In the free trade regimen of the time that meant that few products had clear national origins any longer. From consumer electronics to passenger airplanes, design, component manufacture, and assembly took place globally. For truly large multinational corporations, this globalization offered some remarkable advantages. The economies of scale possible with global markets kept costs down as did the flexibility to locate manufacturing in locations with low labor costs and investment incentives (like minimalist environmental regulations). Large global corporations were in a position to flexibly shift products into whatever markets were experiencing the most growth, and to shift production to mitigate global currency fluctuations. These trends led rather inevitably to global consolidations in most industry segments — bigger was definitely better.2

While many factors contributed to global growth, it was the nexus of telecommunications and air transport that made the world hum. Confounding the predictions of many computer industry pundits, the explosion in telecommunications actually ignited air transport into a global growth surge. Part of the reason, of course, was the somewhat chaotic state of the telecom-internet system. In the late 1990s and early 2000s it exhibited all the best and worst features of a new free market technology. New network performance was constantly being added while a plethora of business and personal applications flooded the marketplace. The pace was so fast that industry standards and protocols actually fell behind. This was compounded by the fact that the business

1  

Of course, we can now trace a few of the less effective terrorplots perpetrated on society in the coming years to the anger generated by these "minor and regrettable social service problems."

2  

The disaffection many in the world felt toward these huge corporate monoliths that cared only for profits in a shifting marketplace not only contributed to the early terrorplot target lists, but also slowed the public outcry in the very early days of the terror.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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model that maintained cash flow into the network owners was increasingly under pressure. Competition from new entrants and new technologies plus price wars led to several bankruptcies and inevitable disruptions in service globally. The result was that businesses could make excellent use of the network, provided nothing crucial was committed to the ether. The need for personal contact grew exponentially just as a host of new markets and opportunities were emerging across the globe.

Passenger aircraft, cargo aircraft, specialty air vehicles — faster, bigger, more flexible, more reliable. The market demand was enormous and driven by the needs of international business and an explosion in leisure travel. Spreading global affluence gave many the ability to explore places they had only seen in film — the Castles on the Rhine, the Great Wall of China, and Graceland. It was a time of nearly unprecedented building of global infrastructure, especially in the emerging markets. New national carriers and aerospace firms emerged as demand drove the installation of new production capacity. They stood on their own3; they allied with the giants of the earlier days, and often they merged, as consolidations swept the aeronautics industries.

Of course, this kind of rapid growth left many people and groups behind (only temporarily, it was hoped). In the old industrial nations, the unskilled and semiskilled saw no great advantages to global economic growth. Indeed, the loss of jobs to the emerging markets had hit this group of poorly educated quite hard. They found only spotty relief in service industries that paid modestly well, but demanded long hours, some learning skills, and a very customer friendly persona. The rapid growth of consumerism was not to the liking of many highly conservative religious and cultural authorities, and an interconnected global economy robbed many authoritarian government leaders of the total sovereignty they thought was their due. Corruption, as well, was to be found in many of the most turbulent markets. These issues were not in the field of view of most consumers and voters, however. The world was getting better all the time, and all small "adjustments" would take care of themselves — as they should in a free market system. In a sense, they did take care of themselves.

Considering the dynamism of the age (or perhaps because of it), when the world changed and our lives were altered so profoundly, it happened surprisingly slowly. The change was so significant, that it seems somehow wrong that it should have appeared almost evolutionary. There should have been more high drama — an off-stage narrator who says (in deep and sonorous tones) "… and now the world has changed…" Yet, the truth was, it took years for it to sink in that our lives might well have been remade forever. My colleagues studying Crimes and Terror in the Department of History debate endlessly on "The Origin." I, for one, am content with the conventional wisdom that places the beginning of our era at the Ramadan Festival in Medina in 2007. Six thousand Muslim pilgrims dead from the release of mustard gas, while across the globe, over the next four hours, six passenger planes carrying Muslim pilgrims were bombed No one ever took "credit.'' At the time we thought that was unusual!

3  

Occasionally they had local government subsidy, but also that became increasingly rare as the global free market ethos took hold everywhere.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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There was a hue and cry throughout the Islamic world and all caring people of the globe reacted with a mixture of horror and deep sympathy. The initial actions were classic and frightening at the time. Air passenger traffic fell off dramatically for a while, Israel was threatened with invasion, oil was briefly cut off to the West, several Western corporate buildings in the Middle East were destroyed in rioting, and calls for a jihad (but against whom?) were heard from Manila to Morocco. Yet, in the end, there was no evidence; no one to blame. To this day, nearly fifteen years later (and despite huge investments in research), no culprit has ever been brought to light. The most amazing theories continue to circulate about "the origin." It was the Masad; it was the Sword of Isalm, it was the neo-Nazis; it was the Yakuza; it was oil spot market traders. The most interesting thing about the "origin list" is that governments never seem to be seriously considered — and that perspective was to be a harbinger of things to come.

Despite grief, fear, and anxiety, the call of global commerce went on. Within a few months, the world was back to its normal hectic pace. A Federal Express plane bound for Memphis was destroyed in a bomb blast, but that received little attention despite the fact that, once again, no one took credit and no one was caught. Then heightened security at airports paid off in a big way. As the Christmas air passenger rush was just beginning, bombs were discovered simultaneously at Heathrow, Kennedy, Chicago, Miami, and Rome. Flights leaving Boston and Frankfurt were not so lucky and five hundred people, mostly families, died in explosions. A pall fell over the world and air traffic in particular as panicked holiday travelers called off their travel plans (especially those flying internationally) Once again — and not for lack of trying over several years — no one was ever caught. Two weeks later, despite very tight security, two flights out of Bombay were destroyed in bomb blasts fifteen minutes apart. This time the perpetrators were caught. Amazingly (at the time) they did not know each other and their efforts had been entirely independent. In one case, a Mr. Madan, had simply decided to use the growing terrorplot mania to cover up the murder of a troublesome business partner. In the other case, the target was the airline itself — destroyed by an ex-employee, fired for a history of "antisocial behavior."

Not surprisingly, Amtrak, Eurorail, and in fact all land-based mass transit began doing a land office business. Or they did until an Islamic fundamentalist group blew up a train inside the Channel Tunnel, while just a month later a survivalists' cult tried to blow up an Amtrak train because it was carrying "new Eastern settlers as agents of global capitalism." Nothing, it appeared, that carried a large group of people, was safe. And that fact — that places with large gatherings of people were not safe — was to become the driving force of our lives.

Stadiums and office buildings, train stations and outdoor concerts, movie theaters and shopping malls — the list of places attacked worldwide over the next five years was as varied as the forms of attack. While there were a few "lone gunmen" with automatic rifles, most forms of terrorplot attack were "impersonal instruments" of large-scale death. Bombs, missiles, and gases were the most common in the beginning, but, as security improved, a more insidious form of attack emerged in the use of airborne infectious diseases. These were especially effective on passenger planes — and airplanes (for all methods of attack) were always the favored target for the publicity (and the degree of difficulty in "succeeding").

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Targets and approaches were not the only things that varied widely, so did the reasons for the attack and the successes at capturing the guilty. Although many were caught, it was very hard to find a guilty party when motives (and credit-taking) were either confused or absent. Imagine a passenger plane has crashed into the ocean. The last few transmissions from the pilot documented high fevers and dizziness among passengers and crew.4 Provided you can find the wreckage, how do you find the culprit? No one admits responsibility. Was it a suicide (to provide insurance money to a family), was it a neo-Nazi effort to destabilize politics, was it a disgruntled ex-employee of the aircraft fuel delivery company, was it done just for the challenge of succeeding, was it done by a company who sells remote diagnostics equipment, was it done out of racial hatred, and on and on … As the number of unsolved terroplots went up, the number of people and organizations attracted to exploiting the situation went up. The threat of capture and punishment was not going to be an effective deterrent, so protection — elaborate and very expensive protection measures — were established. 5

It became an age-old game of "offense/defense" race. New technologies and operations to protect and secure tried to remain ahead of new terrorplot technologies and approaches to mass murder. Eventually, the defense began to win, because the frequently "independent and unorganized" terrorplots did not have the resources to match corporate and government programs to provide safety and security. However the costs have been very high indeed — in traveler peace-of-mind, time, and money.

No one readily gets on an airplane today; indeed, it has become the case that most people just don't consider flying in the first place. We have not had a successful terrorplot event in four years, but that is no longer the point. Certainly significant residual fear is still in many minds. Despite the fact that security measures seem to be working well, anxiety remains high. As a matter of course, all alternatives to mass travel are explored before a trip is reluctantly undertaken. The more fundamental reason why we have turned from air travel (when possible), however, is the cost in time and money. And the time it takes! Deliver your luggage to the airport one day before your trip (two days for international travel). Arrive at the airport three hours before departure. Wear no metal or plastics. Carry no electronics. Don't plan tight schedules for the other end of your trip because departure times are randomized in half-hour segments. Finally, however, despite the anxiety and the time, it is the increased costs that have become the primary deterrent to extensive use of air travel. Users pay for the enhanced security (even government-mandated security measures) and all the services and technologies that have

4  

Of course, most readers will recognize this particular event and will remember the quite profound effect it had on the traveler psyche.

5  

It has been popular in recent times to criticize the "free market" approach initially taken in security measures. Most people look upon the more recent and very intensive government attention to safety and security as the model that should have been followed in the very beginning. But, it must be remembered, that was not the public attitude of that era. Government intervention was very much out of favor then. And, to be perfectly frank, it is quite possible that far more innovative security operations and technologies came onto the market faster, as a result of market forces, than ever would have been generated in a government procurement system. Costs based on user fees has been expensive for transportation users, but I will argue that efficacy and lives saved has been adequate compensation.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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sprung up to help ease the inconveniences. None of this is a social cost defrayed by the taxpayer. The costs are all directly supported by the traveler — and they are high, very high.

The government's role, of course, has evolved in two complementary directions. Within a year of the 2007 Christmas bombing attempts, as global commerce was beginning to show little recovery from the falloffs due to reduced air travel and transport, the U.S. government launch a significant new policy initiative quite at odds with its laissez faire economic and social policies. Until the terrorists were caught,6 alternatives to the mass transportation of people had to be found. The natural choice was the Internet, but it was not a reliable network — certainly not on a global scale. The U.S. government embarked on a massive program composed of subsidies, tax incentives, regulations, and multi-lateral negotiations to establish a Global Infonet as a reliable backbone for global commerce. In the U.S. the network took the form of a publicly regulated utility with some publicly funded applications (education and public service notices, for example) but mostly privately sold applications for business, communication, and entertainment. The theory was twofold: (1) provide a standardized and superbly reliable backbone for personal, government, and industry use (to "reunite" the country), and (2) subsidize its early globalization as a competitive advantage for U.S. business (to "reunite" the world on terms favorable to the U.S.).

Within eighteen months, the U.S. standard Global Infonet (the G-Net) had become the worldwide standard. With more and more bandwidth and applications constantly added (some at U.S. taxpayer expense), the G-Net was becoming the backbone of global commerce and a acceptable (and very cost competitive) alternative to all but the most essential travel. The global economy started to rebound and U.S. corporations, with "first service" command of key business applications, were well positioned for leadership. The tax money had been well spent.

The second government initiative was to "provide for the public safety." While the primary philosophy of the government remained noninterventionist, in the area of safety and security nothing short of a massive industrial and defense policy was initiated. Infrastructure, technologies, products and services — if they could improve the safety and security of people while they traveled or met in large groups, then either financing or funding became available. If the solution was applied technology, the marketplace was given free reign. If long-term R&D activities are required, both government and entrepreneurial capital are available. While the government continues to prefer a free market approach, public funding was and is quickly allocated for programs that will provide enhanced security. The mission and budget battles that have erupted over safety missions are fast becoming legendary.

People have adjusted their lives relatively well by 2020. They stay at home more and entertainment tends to be small-group or family oriented. Interactive G-Net programs are quite the rage. Businesses, especially those with a significant global component (which were many) have had a more difficult time. Some have simply failed. The costs of being global were too high as were the costs of shifting to a more regional focus. Some retain their global standing and

6  

At that time, of course, everyone still believed that they were dealing (mostly) with classic (probably statesponsored) terrorism and that the guilty would be caught eventually.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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are trading across the globe but at much higher operating costs.7 Many others still consider themselves global companies, but they have significantly regionalized their operations to reduce transportation needs. Since economies of scale are not always optimized, costs are occasionally higher. Nevertheless, we have a vigorous global economy and all are adjusting to the new realties of global life and commerce. It is simply the case that we hardly ever think about getting on a plane anymore.

Postscript: Just yesterday (as I was concluding this introductory essay) my nine year old was reading a novel set in the 1980s. She was puzzled by some of the things she was reading."Hey Dad," she asked, "what's a carry-on?"

7  

Cargo transport cost much less than passenger operations, but cargo, too, was often targeted and has not escaped many of the security costs associated with all air transport.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Scenario Matrix-Grounded

Scenario

Grounded

Drivers

 

World Economy and Market Environment

Personal security is paramount; global relatively-free economy with some select government intervention to control terrorism, and coordinated, international, US government-led cooperation to build information highway; the information highway in many cases has significant cost and security advantages over traditional transportation; limits to the free market defined by threats to the movement of people and goods; US dominant economic power in part because of leadership in info highway.

International Trade Environment

International cooperation driven by security; high degree of harmonization on standards; the World Trade Organization works to restrain government involvement in nonsecurity trade and commercial matters; highly controlled access to airspace and landing rights; government run aviation security infrastructure, with some outsources to private technically oriented corporations; high degree of commercial harmonization for nonsecurity related activities; minimum standards on security must be followed by everyone.

Political Instability

Very significant terrorist threat; some threats acknowledged, some not; threats are highly random; reasons are varied - religion, economics, ethnicity, etc.; low to high technology threats (e.g. bombs, software viruses, bio terrorism); occasional collapse of authority in least developed countries; significant personal fear.

U.S. Military Requirements

Low level traditional military requirements; quick in-out police actions; significant excess global arms inventories, poorly accounted for; DOD assigned some non-traditional anti-terrorist roles; intelligence community well-funded; many small prepositioned stock-piles.

Global Distribution of Power & Technology

High tech, wired world - broad band everywhere and infrastructure development widely promoted - IT is the backbone of global economy; few barriers to technology proliferation; source of global power is economic and technology; large corporate security forces common.

Fuels & Fuel Sources

Oil available at moderate prices, price has gone up some over years; resources available and market driven; some short term variation in supplies due to related terrorist

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Drivers/Scenarios

Grounded

 

activities.

US Policy

Basic policy has shifted from laissez faire to more regulation and intervention; early government reduction giving way, increasing size in all areas that can claim a safety/security role; global trend to harmonize regulation surrounding corporate behavior (e.g. bankruptcy, anti-trust), still national variations exist; moderate liability; no tort reform; due to the government commitment to reduce the effects of terrorism there is major government investment in information infrastructure and reduction in traditional government technology investment (e.g., aviation); deficit reemerges (spend what is needed); low US unemployment; large multinational corporations have limited physical mobility and are vertically integrated; barriers to entry/exit generally low except in issues of security/safety then value hurdles are very high and often politically manipulated.

Corporate Structure and Operations

Global companies use the internet as substitute for travel, enabled by virtuality; limits to geographic consolidation, but economic consolidation continues; market share in products tend to be stable but market share for services on internet is dynamic, generally off-sets are reduced; strong global economy; alliances are important especially for market growth; ownership is global and dynamic; labor competition high at professional/managerial level but tighter at production level, since tied into local labor pool, with some what higher costs; hurdles in cost and location, but plenty of startup capital available.

Environment

Environmental issues at the global and national level are over shadowed by terrorism and political instability (but might be environmental terrorism); travel oriented pollution is down, but overall global pollution is up and is seen as a looming problem.

Public Health

Important if there is national security impact for example biological terrorism on planes, trains, boats, water supplies, etc.

Public Attitude to Technology

At the individual personal level there is a love/hate feeling toward technology, because technology is both the cause and solution of the problem; a possible technology proliferation race with terrorists that includes "information terrorism".

Education

Do not put all kids in one building; wired and virtual

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Drivers/Scenarios

Grounded

 

education has gone very far on global utility internet; socialization side of education is a problem; access to education is through public funding; higher education tends toward private funding; despite virtual education, degree granting still through organized "universities"; strong science and technology, arts and humanities tends to languish; the improved access to education through the utility infonet does not ensure that the underclass is well educated; US remains focus of world- class graduate education.

Geographic (Living) Dispersion

Security concerns define nature of dispersion (e.g., gated communities), dispersion distances determined by secure means of transit; some can telecommute all year.

Communications and Information Technology

Free-market development of telecom for first 10 years, then government steps in and establishes a high band width global utility network and standards; it becomes the heart of global business; crucial to mitigating the impacts of terrorism and high cost of business and personal travel; communication and information security, like physical security, is important.

Production Cost Performance

Strong aeronautics industry growth in 1st ten years, then excess manufacturing capacity in large commercial transport, leads to replacement and maintenance market; product improvement (and cost) is directed towards safety and security; operation patterns focus on safety and security; very high cost of travel becomes driving factor as terrorism is somewhat controlled; if firms own unique technology solution, some barriers to entry may come down; ownership pattern is private, vertical integration in many transportation and travel industries to control safety and security; there is a tendency toward somewhat synchronized global business cycles.

Technology development and Application

The need for security drives government industrial policy to augment market driven technologies in safety, security, and information/telecommunication; need new manufacturing technologies for cost effective small local factories; R&D is widely diffused geographically and across industries, "R" is more focused on safety, security, and communications.

Time Poverty Leisure Time, Entertainment

This is a moderate time poverty environment; security and transportation cost issues slow commerce down while

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Grounded

 

security needs add time constraints; transit time needs to be highly productive; large group entertainment is not "physical" but virtual; personal entertainment activities are popular; security concerns reduce work environment mobility; networking encourages blurring of work, education, and leisure; significant home entertainment.

Global Transportation Infrastructure

Trend toward safe and secure transport infrastructure that supports "low density" vehicles; more difficult access to infrastructure to ensure security; infrastructure "guarantees" safety and security of transport; infrastructure must accommodate low-cost, rapid-time-to-market, optimized production flows; supports rapid response to consumer demand (internet orders/drop shipment delivery).

Safety and Security

Safety and security (including data security) is the essence of this world; it is on everyone's mind and drives cost up and convenience down.

Access to space

There is a practical attitude towards the use of space; projects that demonstrate practical applications can be financed.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Regional Tensions

U.S. Economic Competitiveness

Worldwide Demand for Aero Products/Services

Threats to Global Security and/or Quality of Life

Global Trend in Govt. Participation in Society

Strong

High Growth

High

High

Summary

The world is organized along regional blocs each focused on military alliances but also containing formal and informal restrictions on commerce. China after a bloody civil war has emerged angry, aggressive, and particularly antagonistic toward the U.S. and all that it has stood for in the post-WWII era. In response an Anglo/Americas bloc has emerged which now interconnects North America and the UK along with Australia, New Zealand, and Taiwan. This bloc is politically leary of China but, other than Taiwan, is under no direct military threat. Japan, on account of growing doubts about U.S. trade and defense commitments, has moved closer to Russia and along with India has formed an alliance to contain China. Major U.S. companies, in the face of losses in China and hostility elsewhere in the region, have abandoned or downsized Asian operations. An expanded European Union (ex-the UK) is relatively strong, cohesive, and independent to the extent that it strives not to take sides and sells to everyone. Bureaucrats everywhere no longer apologize for interfering in markets when national defense is at stake.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

A century and a quarter ago, as the progress-obsessed nineteenth century was preparing for the twentieth century, the optimism was infectious. The scientific, economic, political and spiritual realms seemed to be harmoniously working together to advance knowledge, raise living standards, ensure peace, and spread ''Western Civilization" worldwide. The new century not only promised technological marvels, expanding international trade, and increasingly liberal politics, but also higher culture and a more profound human spirit. It is only with hindsight that we can see the irony in those brave sermons and editorials that promised the twentieth century would see the material and spiritual ascent of mankind. It is with similar irony that we can now look back (from 2020) only twenty-five years at the descendants of those same prophets who were hailing "a new world order" and "the end of history." Their new world, we were assured, had learned from past bloodshed. Now "liberal capitalism," "global free trade," and a proliferation of "multilateral treaties and organizations" would ensure peace, progress, and prosperity for the new millennium.

Over the last quarter century, America easily had the world's most open, least regulated, and most globally integrated economy. With our deficit well in hand and our debt coming down, we were a nation filled with optimism about the growth of global trade and institutions. After the UN reforms of 1999, all past due contributions were paid and our foreign policy was increasingly coordinated with and through that organization's strengthened institutions. U.S. media giants distributed news, entertainment and educational information worldwide, with an explicit bias toward enhancing international understanding and tolerance. Our universities were open to the citizens of all nations, as were our information network, our financial system, and our corporate board rooms.

If the rest of the world seemed reluctant, at times, to follow America's renewed sense of humanitarian optimism, few countries were reluctant to engage in global economic growth, once again fueled by the North American economy. Trade increased as did all forms of social and economic contact. To the consternation of many, those contacts seemed to bring as much tension as international understanding; but that was easily explained by differential economic growth and the defensive cultural and ethnic policies pursued by some nations made uncomfortable with rapid globalization. All of that would pass (we thought) with the greater understanding that comes with time.

Many, of course, have pinpointed our nearly obsessive pursuit of economic globalization as the root cause of our inattention to politics — the raw sort of power politics — that we eschewed; yet was emerging again on the Asian mainland. The post-Deng succession seemed to go off without a hitch in the late 1990s. Or, in hindsight, perhaps that is what we wanted to believe. There were those rumors that spread through Hong Kong of assassinations and skirmishes between provincial armies. After several years in which Beijing seemed to be in control of a slowly (very slowly) liberalizing country that absorbed all the investment sent its way, China exploded into Civil War between 2006 and 2008.

In hindsight, the succession had not been all that smooth after all. Years of bitter power politics had remained hidden from the capitalists that scoured the country for investment opportunities. The sides of the struggle proclaimed differing ideologies — and perhaps they meant it as they

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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sought control of the world's most populous nation. One side (the North and some of the interior) sought a return to communal values but that was mixed fierce nationalism. The coastal provinces and parts of the southern interior sought to continue the Deng economic revolution and were considerably more internationalists.

A horrible war of mass armies using chemical and biological weapons was fought mostly in the interior and north. The "entrepreneurial" coastal provinces won with surprisingly little damage to the industrial economic infrastructure. But in a turn of events not unheard of in history, the winners began to mirror-image some of the loser's ideology. The emergent and reunited China faced the world as a ferociously nationalistic power hardened by war that immediately sought recognition of its (appropriate) dominant role in Asia.

It is difficult to blame the Europeans for being less idealistic than we. Twice in the last century they were torn to shreds by war. As many argue, however, there may have been more at play than fear for them to have shattered the most successful military alliance in history. Whatever it was, a lack of courage, jealousy, opportunism, or just a different sense of the politically possible, when NATO resolve and unity came to the test in the defense of Taiwan, Europe opted out. Only the UK — in part to finally protect its refugee Hong Kong constituency and in part to assert its independence of a Europe dominated by Germany — (and as always, Australia) chose to stand with North America against China's overt attack on international law. After three days of "live fire" intimidation, China backed down — as the Sixth and Seventh U.S. Fleets came within strike range — but its subsequent behavior toward neighbors (unwilling to resist) and toward foreign investors (all too willing to negotiate anything) has shown again that appeasement only perpetuates aggression.

Internationalism and, more importantly, multilateralism began to fail; incrementally at first, but fail none-the-less. As the joint command in NATO became increasingly fractious, the EU began shifting its focus to the European Defense Union to which North Americans were soon denied observer status. In the UN the excesses of the Sunni Theocracy in their new Arabian Republic were met with conflicting European responses. Suspicions and accusations that German and French oil companies had successfully negotiated secret supply contracts below the $40 marker price continued to surface. Perhaps more importantly, all attempts to embargo China and even curtail its trade violations through the WTO were met only with subterfuge and political sandbagging. Without multilateral cooperation, the US quickly discovered that its defense commitments were overextended.

At the same time, with the WTO hopelessly deadlocked, unlicensed and counterfeit goods began flooding the world market with no coordinated response. There were two major air crashes traced to "fully documented" defective counterfeit engine parts produced in China; and, yet, many governments clung to the belief that unilateral negotiation could protect their interests and investments. Left with no other recourse, America moved to impose maintenance quarantines in Asia and selective import restrictions.

These actions may have been poorly managed, but coming at the same time as our discussions with Japan about a reevaluation of existing defense commitments seems to have been the

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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deciding factor in bringing the New State Socialist Party to power in 2012. Their successful negotiation with Russia for a return of the Sakhalin Islands combined with significantly increased investment in joint development projects was the kernel of cooperation that became the foundation of their defense agreement against China. With India's increased participation in this alliance, they have become the dominant political and military power surrounding China and have successfully co-opted cooperation from some other Southeast Asian countries. The only exception being the Anglo/American presence in Taiwan, the Philippines, and, of course, Australia and New Zealand.

Thus, in less than a decade, the entire post-WWII international institutional structure is on the verge of total collapse. Just as the last semblance of the world created at the Congress of Vienna was totally destroyed by an economically strong, newly centralized and politically aggressive Germany in WWI, so too, a similarly strong, newly re-centralized and assertive China seems determined to do the same. Europe, however, is now the neutral, standing on the sidelines, trying to maintain relations with both sides; while the Anglo/American Alliance watches its Asian counterpart every bit as enigmatic and mysterious as its Czarist predecessor of a century ago. In a world with as little trust as ours, weapons, more than allies, provide security.

Unfortunately our resources are stretched thin: we have allowed our arsenal to lapse into disrepair; our economic muscle has been directed at more peaceful pursuits. Our failure to provide employment for a once unmatched defense industry has resulted in loss of many critical skill sets. We currently are deploying weapon systems that, today, we would find hard to produce. There are whole new areas of weapons technology, most notably in advanced information and knowledge systems, where we have trained the world but failed to retain sufficient talent to support the needs of both industry and defense.

In addition, the radical shifts in global economics and world trade have made too obvious the folly of our excessive dependence on foreign production and our excessive reliance on overseas design and development. Luckily America's immigrant traditions are making it possible to aggressively "patriate" needed talent worldwide. Finally, despite the depressed condition of financial markets, the soundness of our recent fiscal policies have to some degree strengthened our borrowing power. At least there is now general consensus that society and the government have vital national interests concerning the nature and structure of the country's economy; laissez faire may be fine for angels but it is shear folly in a world of human conflict.

Despite this consensus there is no clear agreement regarding the nature of our defense requirements. Seemingly endless lists of needs and technologies are demanding our national attention: air and missile defense, rapid deployment forces, infocom-defense, space defense and global surveillance, chemical and biological systems, and on and on. In addition, the state of our intelligence capabilities has also fallen way behind what is needed. Luckily, the combined naval resources of the Anglo/American Alliance can provide the foundation for the kind of traditional sea-based power projection that appears to be needed. It is also rumored that the U.S. and UK intelligence operations are being successfully revived. The first real test of these joint capabilities appears to be coming in Africa where access to critical raw materials is once again

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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under threat of revolutionary forces with foreign power backing — both the Chinese and European, if regional press reports are to be believed.

One of the biggest problems facing the Anglo/American Alliance has been developing a secure and integrated information network. The U.S. commitment to the Internet and the World Wide Web, like its other commitments to open and transparent international systems, left the country somewhat exposed. At the same time, the UK found itself tightly tied into the European IT System. Meeting all these new alliance-based objectives will provide sorely needed employment to counter some of the jobs that continue to be lost due to contracting world trade. In all this restructuring our only consolation appears to be the fact that the other world players are, in their own ways, equally far behind.

The Russo/Nippon aerospace consortium is still struggling to successfully integrate Japanese standards of manufacturing excellence with Russian design and material expertise. Intelligence reports continue to suggest that cross-cultural tensions are a major problem. No such problems exist in Europe, but there the focus is more tactical than strategic, and the goal is to simply be low-cost producer of technically acceptable armaments and transport equipment for regional and global markets. China's product is consistently better than the experts expect it to be, but the quality of its high-volume production goals are just as consistently less than demanded. Their reusable launch vehicle program is still suffering from the calamitous failure that killed twelve score or more of their top space scientists and engineers.

Despite all this global military buildup, many people are arguing that the greater threat may in the end turn out to be just as it was portrayed by H. G. Wells back when the twentieth century was still the promise of the nature. Underfunding and deteriorating international relations combined with near-term "restructuring objectives" have led to neglect of most public health infrastructure and significant abandonment of environmental restrictions in much of the world. There are those in Japan who argue even more malicious motivations are at play and insist that the acid rain out of China is a premeditated environmental weapon aimed at destroying Japanese rice production. In a similar fashion Euro-hawks have argued that their people are most at risk to ozone depletion and potential climate change, but to date they have had no impact of EU trade policies.

The potential public health problems, however, may be of more immediate concern. People in the medical profession are quick to remind public officials that the swine flu epidemic of 1918—1919 was a far greater killer than all of the carnage of WWI, and up until the 1950s the biggest killer of all was TB. They then point out that reports began appearing in the early 1990s about drug resistant strains of TB and other diseases of urban congestion that were staging a slow comeback among the extremely poor throughout the world. Then in the first decade of this century an ever-increasing number of "exotic" tropical diseases began appearing in large cities of major industrialized nations; occurring, it was alleged, because of cheap air travel to and from emerging market countries. The reported use of biological weapons in the Chinese civil war may or may not have aggravated the already deteriorating situation.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Whatever the historical facts, most medical authorities are now arguing that of the Four Horsemen, plague is now a bigger threat than war and that far too large a portion of America's and the world's limited resources are being devoted to preparation for the wrong battle. Skeptics of course argue that such claims are little more than antiwar rhetoric in a new costume, just as environmentalism is no more than anti-industrialization. Much of the public, however, seems to be personally concerned.

The decline in long-distance vacation travel continues, and travel industry experts will tell you, confidentially, that it has to be more than the economy. They point out that luxury travel to exotic resorts is way down and even traditional Caribbean destinations are suffering, while U.S. and European destinations appear to be picking up. International business travel also continues to be soft, as corporations abandon any pretense at global organizational structures in favor of a more regional focus. But travel industry people say there is more going on: "Folks come in asking if the water is safe, if the rooms are clean or are just distrusting the 'people there.' And, of course, they invariably go on to add "concern about regional air safety and security management in one country or another." In the end they simply go some place local that they can trust. People, like their governments, do not seem to be in a trusting mood.

Whatever happens, the new millennium looks more like the "old world disorder" than anything else. And, if the statesmen or the public health officials can't keep the lid on things, the "end of history" may have a more final meaning than originally was intended.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Scenario Matrix - Regional Tensions

Drivers/Scenarios

Regional Tensions

World Economy and Market Environment

Slow growth in global economy with periodic instability; several large somewhat equal regional markets; multinationals forced to adopt regional structures; turbulent labor markets with overall unemployment decreasing from very high levels, moderate to high inflation resulting from declining trade and deficit spending; heavy trade barriers between regions; markets optimized for intraregional relationships; have and have nots in all regions; little or no incentive for global harmonization; US lags in growth and competitiveness; globally, cost of capital high; little research & development except in military; risks are high.

International Trade Environment

Lethargic international trade environment; World Trade Organization is gone; trade agreements few and bi-regional; lots of trade barriers (tariff and non-tariff); tight controls on regional military-critical technologies; highly politicized air rights agreements; no incentive to continue off sets.

Political Instability

Four antagonistic regional powers - North America, Europe, Japan/ Russia/India, and China that emerged from prolonged period of economic, political and military conflict; significant instability lingers in Southeast Asia; shared tensions over resources and concerns over sea lane security; China and US narrowly averted military conflict and are still at odds.

U. S. Military Requirements

Need for long-range force projection but no reliable overseas basing; Navy plays major role; growing DOD budget with classic missions, combined with new military needs including space defense and surveillance; no war at moment despite high tensions.

Global Distribution of Power & Technology

Regionalized; no dominant super-region; power fairly equally distributed among and within regions; not a globally wired-world; nets are regional; US retains technological edge.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Drivers/Scenarios

Regional Tensions

Fuels & Fuel Sources

Conservative Sunni Theocracy takes over House of Saud, Middle East oil goes to $40 per barrel (in today's dollars) but supplies are stable; balance of regional power prevents any reaction to price hike from consuming nations; high incentives to achieve energy independence for national security.

US Policy

Relatively high degree of government intervention in economic sphere; particularly strong industrial policy in defense matters; somewhat more liberal tort environment but not central issue; unemployment mitigated by rising defense expenditures; fairly permissive anti-trust regulations, activist government support for troubled US and North American companies; very high barriers to entry/exit; entry barriers related to high tariffs, non-tariff barriers, and high cost of capital; high government spending, focused on defense sector; government debt and deficit both rising following relatively austere fiscal period; increase in regulations related to regional/international trade and commerce; higher humanitarian assistance which is pragmatic and directed toward Latin America to woo into North American sphere of influence.

Corporate Structure and Operations

Corporate structure deglobalized and now regionalized; high geographical consolidation with lots of corporate failures; very limited technological proliferation, very strong government controls on military and technology exports, but some seepage nonetheless; offset agreements the exception and determined by type of product and host country relationship to seller; business alliances are limited overall but critical to inter-regional commerce; pronounced trend to regional ownership structures; shortages of skilled labor especially for defense-related industries; technical labor costs very high, intensive training required to upgrade skill base; government support for defense related training and education.

Environment

High pollution globally, some regions better than others; not generally seen as social priority; pollution as "weapon"; pollution regulations as a

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Drivers/Scenarios

Regional Tensions

 

non-tariff barrier.

Public Health

Public health and potential public health problems are consistently worrisome across globe; unified public health standards in Europe, uneven elsewhere; communicable diseases successfully managed at regional level; crumbling US and European sewer and water infrastructure heightening health risks.

Public Attitude to Technology

Attitude is positive and re-enforced by government propaganda; "Superior" technology is developed in North America; national security-related technology race between regions.

Education

Public funding based on national security needs; funding high but competes with other social requirements; targeted spending on science and technology; for universities, far fewer foreign students (situation very tough on private colleges); US higher education not necessarily the best and funding is constant problem, private university closures; academia might be key forum for global conferences; little technological innovation, stuck at 2005 level; classic educational paradigm; global harmonization of education in decline.

Geographic (Living) Dispersion

As offshore manufacturing returns home, government provides incentives to revitalize economic hardship zones; knowledge workers able to telecommute.

Communications and Information Technology

Communication tends to be regionally organized; global communications has extensive barriers; technology development is often a spin-off of military needs; global system in place in 2005 is still there (maybe not well maintained) and there may be private nets developing; slow divergence of standards and protocols between regions.

Production Cost Performance

Economies of scale limited by regional structures, making regional-based manufacturing more expensive; many raw materials and components outsourced out of US in earlier years are difficult and costly to obtain; some cost issues tolerated due to high defense need; barriers to entry/exit are moderate to high; governments are biggest buyers of

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Drivers/Scenarios

Regional Tensions

 

aeronautics products and services; subsidies to airlines for Civil Reserve Air Fleet; governments are committed to keeping airlines in business; very high emphasis on dual-use components and products; global business cycles not synchronized.

Technology development and Application

Government industrial policy focused on national security applications; core competencies vary across regions and focus on legacy industry base and local raw materials (new technologies developed to make best of local materials); government R&D is everywhere - it is both R and D.

Time Poverty Leisure Time, Entertainment

Some time poverty for people working two jobs in lethargic economies (different from region-to-region); pronounced local and regional orientation to entertainment and leisure activities; classic pattern of work and leisure; some tendency to use entertainment for propaganda activity; global competition played out in art and entertainment fields.

Global Transportation Infrastructure

Infrastructure supports national security mandates; regional infrastructure predominates while inter-regional standards diverge; some deterioration owing to lack of maintenance of infrastructure not critical to national security.

Safety and Security

Security that is important is national security; safety is regional responsibility; harmonization in global standards are declining.

Access to space

Leading-edge space capability is central to national security concerns; space assets to support economic competitiveness protected by regional space defense forces.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Trading Places

U.S. Economic Competitiveness

Worldwide Demand for Aero Products/Services

Threats to Global Security and/or Quality of Life

Global Trend in Govt. Participation in Society

Weak

High Growth

Low

Low

Summary

The past two decades have witnessed extraordinary shifts in global economic and political power. The booming economies of East and Southeast Asia have grown to the point of challenging the economic dominance of the U.S., Western Europe, and Japan. Powerful multinational corporations combined with free and open markets guided the flow of manufacturing, technology, and intellectual capital from West to East. Technological innovation, too, is increasingly centered in the Pacific Rim, as companies gear their research and product development to satisfy the wants and desires of the middle classes of China, India, Korea, Southeast Asia and, to a lesser extent, Latin America. The U.S. and Western Europe muddle through with sluggish growth, and heavy social burdens related to aging populations. Governments are pressured to do more — impossibly — with less. Privatization and deregulation offer only partial relief to strained government budgets. In the U.S. and Western Europe, unemployment is relatively low but underemployment is high. Consumers work hard and long hours, with little leisure time. For most, life is hard, but still bearable. There is a sense of inevitability to the tremendous changes that have taken place in the global economy. However grudgingly, consumers accept their diminished status. Mature market consumers are still the most materially fortunate in the history of the world. It is just that the rest of the world is now catching up at breakneck speed. Sooner or later, the "emerging" emerge; the "declining" decline.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

In 1996, emerging economies were all the rage. The original ''Group of Seven" industrialized countries (which at that time included the United States, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and Japan) saw great promises in the then-underdeveloped but rapidly growing economies of China, India, Indonesia, and the other export-oriented economies of Southeast Asia as well as those of Latin America. What the mature economies failed to realize at the time was the extent to which their own economic problems and declining competitiveness, in the context of free and open global markets, would accelerate the progress and development of the Emerging Markets and significantly narrow the gaps between the "haves" of the mature markets and the "not yet haves" of the Emerging Markets. The ascent of the latter has been no less than remarkable, as symbolized by China and Korea's admittance to the world economic power club. Today, it is known as the Group of Eleven (and growing).

U.S. and European investment in the Pacific Rim progressed at a steady pace through the end of the 1990s and the early 2000s. Though the majority of dollars, pounds, and marks found their way to Asia, select Latin American countries, notably Chile, received attention as well. Chile itself grew increasingly integrated with the Pacific economy. In the process, truly global companies emerged, with the ability to rationalize R&D, sourcing, production, distribution and servicing on a worldwide basis. The pronounced concentration of market growth in Asia Pacific resulted in a very large share of financial, infrastructural, industrial, and intellectual investment in that region.

Increasingly, the national origins of most of the world's large companies became difficult to determine. Trade barriers dropped — there was no point anymore in trying to shut out another nation's goods and services; there was room for everyone — as the explosion in privately developed information networks and widespread commercialization of the Internet greatly facilitated global commerce. The nascent but highly effective World Trade Organization kept all the players honest.

Across Asia and Latin America, rapid and sustained economic growth created a shortage of managerial and technical human resources. In response, both governments and multinational companies expanded sponsorship of advanced studies in the leading U.S. and European universities. Consequently, foreign (and especially Asian) enrollment in U.S. engineering and management science programs skyrocketed. So great, in fact, was demand for advanced training that many top flight schools opened up campuses in Asia. It was a big deal when Harvard announced the opening of its Shanghai satellite campus (the "Harvard on the Yangtze"), but by the time Yale, Princeton, and UCLA followed with their campuses in Santiago, Kuala Lumpur, and Jakarta, respectively, few seemed to notice or care.

In the West, the U.S. and European economies appeared deceptively healthy at the dawn of the twenty-first century. To be sure, both regions were benefiting from the robust trade with the developing world as lower labor and manufacturing costs that came with the move of factories offshore caused corporate profits to hit record levels. U.S. and European stock markets soared. In Washington, tight fiscal policies enabled the government to stem the increase in the national debt. To many citizens' amazement, the budget was actually balanced by 2002, as promised back in 1996, and the nation had begun to dig itself out from under its heavy debt burden. Confident

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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in this perception of economic and corporate health, some leading-edge baby boomers started retiring at age 55, and didn't seem to mind when Washington made cuts in Social Security and Medicare benefits to help balance the budget. They didn't need to worry; their investments and retirement provisions promised a very comfortable lifestyle.

In reality, however, serious economic problems loomed just beneath the surface. By 2004, a large and rapidly growing share of the intellectual and physical assets of key sectors such as automotives and electronics was now located in China, Southeast Asia, and Latin America. The U.S. aerospace industry was hanging by a thread. Much reduced were the high-wage jobs that were the hallmark of these industries. This sparked protectionist opposition in the U.S., but no large-scale revolt. People still had jobs and managed to pay their bills. Besides, consumers had grown smart about world trade matters. They liked the inexpensive and increasingly world quality imported goods to which they long enjoyed access. The last thing they wanted was a trade war (which by the way would inevitably victimize some family member employed in an export-oriented industry).

True U.S. leadership remained concentrated in — non-manufacturing industries like information technology, health care, and pharmaceuticals. Though the U.S. suffered only one actual recession during this time (1997–1999), overall U.S. GDP growth averaged a paltry 1.5 percent between 2000 and 2005.

China and Southeast Asia, meanwhile, capitalized on the problems of the increasingly aging and noncompetitive markets of the West. Singapore emerged as a strong financial market after a series of trading scandals in Tokyo shook investment markets in the early 2000s, setting the government on a strict financial markets reform binge. Asian companies succeeded at gradually increasing their ownership shares in formerly U.S. and European manufacturing assets. Likewise, Asian companies and governments now accounted for a very high share of Internet traffic and, before long, took the lead in creating their own Asian language information networks and communication protocols.

The internal markets of Asian countries "took off." By the turn of the century, China boasted the world's third-largest market after the United States and Japan. Many Western pundits had an exaggerated sense of China's frailties.

Deng Xiaoping's passing in 1998 failed to create the tumultuous succession struggle in Beijing that the world had for so long anticipated, adding to China's ability to steadily grow its economy through the turn of the century. (At the fifteenth annual Brookings Institution China After Deng However, when Deng's successor Jiang Zemin perished unexpectedly in 2004 (when his Chinese-manufactured Boeing 737-1200 crashed off the coast of Hong Kong), neither Beijing nor the world was prepared for the brief but intense power contest that ensued. Under Jiang's rule, China's liberal faction had reemerged as a potent political force and was poised to make a play for party and government leadership. The military, long pacified by Jiang's modernization policies, grew nervous over the prospects of a reformist government. The military staged a feigned move against Taiwan, not so much to achieve independence (the Taiwanese and Chinese

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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economies were so closely integrated by this time that even the People's Liberation Army recognized the dire economic consequences that would follow military action against Formosa), but more to reassert its influence in domestic Chinese politics.

Sadly, the United States grossly misinterpreted the Chinese Army's actions. Because of growing animosity over China's growing economic prowess fueled by the protectionist camp (as well as a massive outflow of talented China analysts from the U.S. Intelligence Community), the prevailing view inside the Beltway was that an invasion of Taiwan was imminent, and the U.S. administration was pressured to slap heavy economic sanctions on Beijing. The U.S. failed to marshal international support for its actions (European governments had correctly interpreted China's military maneuvers as nothing more than Chinese political infighting), and the economic sanctions had a negligible effect on China's economy. By the time the U.S. lifted the sanctions in 2006, its reputation as a reliable trading partner was greatly tarnished not only in China but also throughout Asia. A market of more than 2 billion people was virtually lost.

The convergence of a loss of Western industrial leadership in key sectors, growing Asian economic and political power, the trade dispute with China and its aftermath, and structural economic problems in the U.S. set the U.S. economy on a downward slope in 2006. With the bulk of the U.S. labor force increasingly finding employment in low-wage service jobs (want ads for the Gap appear weekly in the Sunday New York Times where solicitations for computer programmers and electrical engineers once ran), U.S. tax receipts declined. This coincides with the bulk of the baby-boom generation's entry into old age, placing enormous pressures on the tinkered-with-but-unreformed Social Security and Medicare systems. The increasing political power of this demographic group — the ranks of the AARP swelled by 20 percent between 2006 and 2012 — made it almost impossible to achieve structural reform in the entitlements system, causing the U.S. budget deficit and debt to balloon to levels that surpassed the debt of the early 1990s, sending the nation into recession. Unemployment approached 10 percent, underemployment was severe, and overall consumer confidence was at a 20-year low. In a much ballyhooed event, U.S. and European governments held a conference in 2011 to discuss ways to achieve drastic reform of their beleaguered social welfare systems.

Significant research and development capacity followed U.S. and European manufacturing overseas, and what little R&D was left was cut to the bone by short-term-minded corporate leaders trying to squeeze even more profits. Real economic recovery would not occur for another six years. At the same time, the foreign students that streamed into U.S. colleges and universities are now returning home to capitalize on the opportunities there at the same time that U.S. applications drop, leaving classrooms and laboratories — and endowments — virtually empty. College has become an increasingly unattractive option for many; the lack of high-paying jobs hardly makes the average annual tuition of $100,000 worth it. Very little new intellectual capital was being generated in the United States.

Meanwhile, Asian economies in the late 2000s truly came into their own. Japan got its financial house in order and was once again a strong investor in the region. China and Southeast Asia are on their way to becoming industrialized societies and have assumed solid leadership in several sectors, especially those that are technology and R&D-intensive. When the Shanghai-based

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Xingou Technologies began mass producing and exporting its "biochip" — a device that transformed artificial intelligence into the real thing — China was finally able to tout its status as a world leader in both biotechnology and computer hardware. Before long, almost every Asian economy found its industrial niche: in Malaysia, it was automobiles, India, software, Indonesia, aerospace. In Latin America, Mexico, and Brazil were the regional hubs for automotive manufacturing; Chile was the leading developer of Spanish-language software.

The late 2000s also saw a dramatic shift in political and military power eastward. Distrust of U.S. motives in the Pacific Rim remained strong in the aftermath of the ill-fated U.S. trade war with Beijing, and few tears were shed when Washington announced that it would relocate more than 80 percent of its military assets in Asia back to the U.S. due to budgetary constraints. China, which had invested heavily in its military and now possessed state-of-the-art fighter aircraft and naval platforms, quickly stepped in and became the dominant regional military power. It resurrected the Southeast Asian Treaty Organization and goaded (somewhat forcibly) its southern neighbors into a rigid security pact; even Vietnam felt compelled to join. In a quirk of history, the new SEATO charter was signed on the very same day that NATO, whose members were unable to sustain their respective security commitments, announced the dissolution of its military pact. To the north, Japan, still wary of Chinese military intentions, struck a tenuous security alliance with Russia and India.

Fortunately, global security threats were relatively low. Ideologies have been replaced by the desire to cash in, and no major regional tensions are apparent. Even the Middle East was uncharacteristically stable after mild turmoil in the late 1990s, allowing for healthy petroleum supplies at prices that rise only modestly, in pace with inflation. The most significant military threat for the new Asian security system is the occasional flare-up of domestic turmoil in countries that have been left behind the economic wave. China has on occasion been forced to send peacekeepers to "the three B's" (Bangladesh, Burma, and Bhutan) when civil unrest threatened to interfere in regional trade flows.

By 2015, the transformation was complete. The U.S. and European economies had rebounded from their late 2000s downturns and, though hardly robust, were getting by. Consumers, however, exhibited a weary resignation to the extraordinary changes that had taken place in the global economy, and a sense of missed opportunities was pervasive. The decline in wages had leveled off, but the absence of well-paying jobs meant that most middle-class wage-earners were holding down two jobs, creating intense time poverty pressures. Job security was tenuous.

The U.S. technical and research infrastructure is tiny compared to what existed in the 1990s. A record number of private U.S. universities closed between 2011 and 2015, and the small percentage of middle-class high school seniors opting for college tend to favor community colleges over larger, four-year institutions. Corporate investment in R&D tends to be overseas. U.S. servicemen and women have been introduced to no new military platforms in nearly 10 years, and the services are struggling to extend the life of systems well beyond their intended longevity. The nation's infrastructure is crumbling as federal and local agencies are able to afford only patchwork repairs to the road, rail, and telecommunications networks. The only bright spot: the emergence of the U.S. as the world's most popular tourist destination for Asian

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

vacationers. The best roads in the country can now be found in the greater Disney World vicinity, and the Orlando airport has displaced New York's JFK as the initial U.S. point of entry for the majority of international travelers.

Asian governments, meanwhile, are now moving quickly to the center of global political, economic, and military power and influence. Their economies are developing, their militaries modern, and they hold considerable sway over the rules of international commerce. Asian needs and interests are now figured into international aviation treaties and landing rights agreements. The International Civil Aviation Organization has moved its world headquarters to Tokyo.

The emerging have emerged; the declining declined.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Scenario Matrix - Trading Places

Drivers/Scenarios

Trading Places

World Economy and Market Environment

Pacific Rim centric world economy; strong market forces; moderately high growth fueled by China and India; industrialized world experiencing stagnant economic growth; unemployment is low in emerging countries, moderate in US, high in Europe; significant under-employment in industrialized countries; low global inflation with efficient capital markets; reasonable cost of capital.

International Environment/Trade

Globally strong and open trade environment behind effective World Trade Organization; US and European leaders fend off protectionist pressures; global harmonization is relatively strong; Asian leaders set rules on air and landing rights; low barriers overall but Western economies starting to demand offsets.

Political Instability

Generally stable and peaceful world but lingering after-effects of lost US trade war with China; world is organized around world trade and China & Southeast Asia at the core of global politics and economic power; some civil instability within countries not participating in global economy or with unreformed domestic economies.

U.S. Military Requirements

Global military budget declining; most funding is maintenance, repair, and service life extension program; little R&D; Russia-Japan and China protect major sea lanes; US has minimal presence; some co-patrols with Japan.

Global Distribution of Power & Technology

The heart of power and technology is in the Pacific Rim; multinational corporations have shifted design and manufacturing to local markets around the world; fairly high tech and wired world based on private communications infrastructure driven by multinational corporations.

Fuels & Fuel Sources

Peaceful coexistence in Middle East allows for stable oil supplies and free movement of petroleum; moderate price increases in line with inflation.

US Policy

Government promotes deregulation and privatization, but lower wage work and less job security result; government permissive in antitrust cases; laisse-faire government position on bankruptcy; low entry/exit barriers; government is downsized and stable; fiscal policy is disciplined and

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Trading Places

 

austere, some debt reduction accomplished; reasonably stable but sluggish economy; reduction in humanitarian assistance given low military commitments and austere government spending.

Corporate Structure and Operations

Globally integrated and networked firms of blurred national origin; corporate consolidation mitigated by low trade barriers, high competition, rapid technical proliferation, especially to emerging markets; free markets generally, but any off-set requirements likely to be ours; ownership complex - multinational capital with lots of portfolio investment; wide range of alliances among multinationals and national companies; in US, high tech labor pool reduced because of tendency of US-educated foreign nationals to return to their homeland; low skilled labor in ample supply, with sluggish wage gains; US students postpone higher education because of high cost, personal debt and uncertain prospects; weak US labor movement.

Environment

In US and Europe pollution is less of a problem since economic activity is down; emerging markets pollution is high and a growing global problem but not yet an issue for them.

Public Health

US public health spending static though global spending is rising as emerging countries aim to achieve Western health standards; problems with Ebola-type new diseases as emerging markets develop.

Public Attitude to Technology

Emerging markets- very pro technology "technology for technology sake";

in the US, public attitude is positive (but does not encourage public investment in R&D).

Education

US public education is as lethargic as economy and society;

US graduate education still world class, but everyone sees it as declining; major US universities leverage strong reputations and globalize (e.g. place campuses in Southeast Asia); education in Southeast Asia is well funded and is a technocratic meritocracy; in US, middle class is primarily educated in community colleges and state universities; US students pursuing medical, finance, and law curricula, plus retail and trade industries; in emerging countries, applied sciences and management strong.

Geographic (Living) Dispersion

In emerging markets, some dispersion away from old industrial areas as firms seek lower cost labor and more

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Trading Places

 

modern infrastructure; in US and Europe, high skilled professionals enjoy high degree of geographic mobility owing to high world demand for specialized skills.

Communications and Information Technology

US no longer shaping the global information - communication system; world is well wired but US no longer dominates; applications and hardware tend to be made and installed in emerging markets first; superb equipment can be purchased from emerging markets vendors; bandwidth is adequate and keeps pace with demand; some Asian-led government regulation of communication standards; large multinationals set up private networks; significantly satellite-based and mobile.

Production Cost Performance

Manufacturing costs are low with global economies of scale but manufacturing is typically out of US; very hot market with general expectations with constant stream of new products (especially in emerging markets); product definition is tuned to non - US markets; in emerging markets barriers to entry/exit are low to moderate (some industry policy even in laissez fare environment); in US, barriers are restrained but where they exist they are complex and occasionally contradictory; barriers tend to be market-specific depending on priority of industry; moderately synchronized and slightly longer business cycles driven by emerging markets.

Technology development and Application

Very market driven; market need is defined by Pacific Rim consumers; R&D is out of US, tend to focus on "D" except in a few research-intensive industries such as biotechnology, pharmaceuticals, and agriculture; US excellence also in finance, banking, medical, and other service sectors; corporations may own great technologies, but it is developed and utilized out of US.

Time Poverty Leisure Time, Entertainment

Emerging markets are very hot markets with high time poverty; US and Europe are destinations for global tourism; in US, time poverty chronic and comes from multi-job families and unstable work situations; emerging markets' peak earners are workaholics, but next generation taking more frequent and more distant international vacations; even if small percent are leisure traveling, base population is huge.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Trading Places

Global Transportation Infrastructure

Significant infrastructure development in emerging markets; standards are being set by emerging markets but may be some conflict / competition between nations; trend toward "smart" infrastructure; US infrastructure aging and deteriorating (except around major tourist and retirement locations); trend toward some privatization; moderate growth in business-to-business electronic distribution, slower growth on retail side.

Safety and Security

Information security predominates; personal and industrial threats limited; security focused globally on information and intellectual property.

Access to space

Space programs driven by pragmatic economic needs, particularly of emerging markets; financing and technology would be made available by emerging and developed markets alike.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Environmentally Challenged

U.S. Economic Competitiveness

Worldwide Demand for Aero Products/Services

Threats to Global Security and/or Quality of Life

Global Trend in Govt. Participation in Society

Weak

Low Growth

High

High

Summary

After years of negligence and abuse the global ecology has turned against the industrialized world. Economically harsh measures are required if the now obviously destructive levels of CO2 emissions are to be reduced and global catastrophe avoided. Of all the world's major economic powers, the U.S. is among the least prepared — politically and economically— to make the needed sacrifices and is suffering accordingly. All hydrocarbon intensive industries are under merciless pressures: legal, financial, and social. Noncooperating countries, and there are a number of them among the less developed nations of the world, are risking military as well as diplomatic and economic sanctions if they do not similarly curtail their CO2 emissions. The World Environment Council has become a dominant force in world affairs surpassing in importance and power even the IMF and the WTO. Despite the considerable expansion of governmental and regulatory intervention to reduce the CO2 threat, public confidence is low and economic expectations are lower.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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The following excerpts are reprinted with permission of the Children's Education Project of the World Environmental Council, Brussels, 2021

… While all those requests have been more than flattering, the real reason I accepted this assignment sprung from an experience I had in my children's school last year. I deeply appreciate the confidence placed in me by the Brussels Commission, but the truth is I never would have undertaken this essay were it not for the discovery on my part that children take so much of today's life for granted, that they truly do not know how close we came (and still are!) to the extinction of our species. It is a story worth knowing.

The ethics of our era are unashamedly global; but I will be forgiven, I know, if I begin this story from the perspective of the United States. After all, this essay is first intended for that school audience; and Americans are clearly the ones who need the most help in adjusting.

To the surprise of all economic pundits of the 1990s, the U.S. gradually lost its global competitive position in business, technology, and sheer societal energy as the early years of the millennium passed. While many nations, especially in Europe and in the emerging markets, surged in growth, the U.S. economy stagnated as U.S. corporations wasted considerable investment capital and incurred huge debts in a takeover and merger mania. Wall Street's pressure for short-term profits resulted in significantly reduced funding for research and development across many industry segments. Moreover, increasing numbers of firms moved sourcing and manufacturing operations offshore to reduce costs and more effectively compete in the face of intense global competition. Many firms also were under pressure to maximize cash inflow to cover very heavy debt service obligations.

Poor business decision making was not the only reason for a lethargic U.S. economy. After a brief and unsuccessful attempt at fiscal reform, the U.S. government (under pressure from an aging population) returned to high social spending mixed with regulatory invention and increasing tax burdens. Of course, the U.S. government was unable to reduce the debt under these circumstances. In fact, the U.S. debt increased as various administrations were unable to control escalating Social Security costs resulting from intense political heat applied by a powerful and extremely well organized aging population. Healthcare reform efforts suffered similar resistance. Schemes such as federal requirements for U.S. corporations to assume a greater share of healthcare costs further encouraged corporate flight from the country.

Increased taxes for social programs resulted in low personal savings rates and less capital for infrastructure improvements and research. Efforts to reform education in the U.S. became embroiled in ideological disputes. As a consequence of offshore sourcing and inadequate training of the work force, unemployment among lower-skilled workers grew rapidly. Most new job generation was in the low end of the service sector.

The only real improvement in the U.S. economy was in trade policy — it came as a Pyrrhic victory, however. The U.S. made some early progress in reducing its trade deficit but it had done so using strong-armed trade threats and nontariff instruments, particularly in dealings with Japan and China. It worked for a few short years (into the early 2000s) while the U.S. economy was

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

still the most attractive consumer market. However, as the consumption capacity of the U.S. economy waned (causing import demand to drop), the Japanese and Chinese retaliated with trade restrictions on of U.S. products. Antagonisms ran high, but the U.S. was powerless to do much more than live with reverse trade discrimination.

There was limited public support for defense spending since there were few perceived threats other than economic disputes with Japan and China and some intractable terrorist issues, particularly Islamic fundamentalism. Several U.S. failures in supporting nation building experiments in Africa and Latin America fed a growing national mood of isolationism. The resulting reduced defense budgets led to a decline in DOD procurements. Limited orders caused a major decline in the defense industrial base; suppliers to the prime contractors were particularly injured.

Other major economic powers did not share the U.S.'s problems. During this same period, Europe, Japan, China, and a number of countries on the Asian littoral experienced significant growth as a result of the improving efficiency of global capital markets targeted at investments in new and emerging global markets. As East Europe recovered from its depression in the 1980s and 1990s, it provided a major market for exports from the European Union (EU). Similarly, the growth of the middle class in such countries as India and China not only provided large internal markets but also provided major opportunities for Japan and other Pacific Rim exporters. In China alone, annual export earnings and GDP growth averaged 10 and 12 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, healthy economic growth permitted EU nations and Japan to make substantial progress in retiring the large social debt accumulated in the 1980s and 1990s. In Japan, for example, large corporate profits from increased exports permitted greater privatization of social services. In the EU, investment capital was available for infrastructure improvement. Japan, on the other hand, was able to divert money away from infrastructure projects having made heavy investment in the 1980s and 1990s. Japanese companies were therefore in a stronger position to take on long-term research and development projects.

A perceived reluctance of the United States to perform its traditional role in world affairs resulted in expanded defense spending in Europe and Asia. Although many Pacific Rim states had good economic relations with China, they continued to fear Chinese expansionism. China avoided a succession crisis and continued along a path of heavy defense spending (both in absolute and relative terms). Chinese military equipment modernization was unmatched by any country during this period. Japan, in particular, found the U.S. withdrawal from Asia disconcerting as it increased the vulnerability of trade routes and oil supplies, and generally disturbed the balance of power in the region. Japan amended its constitution to permit up to 5 percent of its GNP for defense spending and invested heavily in advanced naval and long-range air surveillance and interdiction technologies and capabilities.

Other Asian nations similarly decided that moderate to high defense budgets, particularly for acquisition, were prudent given Chinese capabilities. The EU, similarly, was disturbed by the seeming U.S. withdrawal from its traditional role in Europe. The potential for instability worldwide, possible threats to oil routes and oil reserves, and a requirement for a strong regional economic union motivated EU members to maintain a strong defense industrial base and dual-

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

technology infrastructure. Europe increased its research and development budget. This effort to maintain a strong defense and advanced dual-technology base was partially funded through foreign sales, particularly to the Middle East and to emerging industrial powers in Southeast Asia. Many of these sales were through licensed production and technology transfer instruments.

Accelerated industrialization in China, India, and Southeast Asia was among the most significant developments of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Manufacturing grew at unprecedented levels; many of the Asian Tigers' manufacturing sectors grew at levels above 10 percent a year. It required extensive infrastructure construction. But the new availability of highways, for example, resulted in major demand for automobiles, in turn increasing congestion and pollution. Similarly, economic growth among these nations had the effect of creating a large middle class. The middle class become the major impetus for a large demand for all forms of transportation, including business and recreational air travel.

Russia did not experience the rapid growth of most of the industrialized or industrializing nations in Europe and Asia. Its government debt continued to grow, but it did make steady progress in resolving its massive economic problems and ameliorating social conflicts. Major European and Japanese investment in the manufacturing and resource extracting sectors was the primary reason for the steady improvement in the economy.

Growing industrialization worldwide generated enormous demand for Middle East oil. Global supplies remained adequate, however, and the major producers were unable to reach agreements that would have permitted them to significantly increase the price of oil. The main causes of this were the militant policies of Iran as well as major arms procurement by that country. All other nations in the region were compelled to invest heavily in deterrent systems. Thus the Middle East arms market was a major customer for the European defense industries. Similarly, China found a major market for its defense equipment in exports to Iran. Iran itself remained a fundamentalist Islamic theocracy. This kind of militancy did not spread to other Middle East states, however.

While global tensions were high, global business was expanding at a healthy clip, as evidenced by new factories, new trade and commercial relationships, and increased cross-border capital flows. This free-trade environment drove demand for truly efficient and global transportation systems. Predictably, living standards in the developing world improved as household income grew and physical and social infrastructures were developed. Diet and public health across the globe were moving toward Western standards and consumers everywhere (outside the U.S.) were feeling more confident about the future. On the other hand, congestion in cities was becoming a serious problem, water and air pollution were on the rise, and urbanization was compounding the development problems in large metropolitan areas.

This rapid, worldwide industrialization resulted in unprecedented use of petroleum products. By 2007, many scientists across the globe were raising environmental concerns and predicting dire consequences from the emergent threat of global warming. An evidence debate occupied a surprisingly large place in the daily news media — especially in Europe, but on the Internet, as well. From 2008 to 2010, a very strong consensus emerged in the scientific community (and in many influential parts of the global political community) that the world was on the brink of an

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

environmental crisis because of high levels of CO2 emissions. New measurement techniques (available only in recent years) demonstrated emphatically that global warming was occurring. It was further revealed that a small increase in the arctic temperature was leading to permafrost melting in the tundra. Scientists had known for over a decade that the melting tundra would release CO2 and methane at levels so high as to seriously compound problems that had been created from industrialization.

The political reaction to the global environmental crisis in Europe was more decisive than in other parts of the world. Green parties became very powerful in the EU and their concerns quickly dominated political agendas. The Europeans had had CO2 limits and CO2 emissions credits systems for utilities since the 1990s. These were expanded dramatically. The Union also established stringent CO2 emissions requirements on all emitting industries and vehicles. U.S. (and many emerging market) products that could not meet these standards were denied import licenses. Whereas, European products that could meet the new standards were marketed with growing success everywhere (even at somewhat higher prices).

Initially, U.S. responses were weak and vacillating owing primarily to the political reality that job protection had become the bottom line of economic and social policy. However, mounting evidence of an impending crisis over about two years created a mood swing in U.S. public attitudes (especially among the baby busters generation that had always been ''green") that made a positive government response a necessity. U.S. industry driven by market concerns and export opportunities (the European CO2 standard was fast becoming global) put even greater pressure on the government for decisive action in setting targets for emissions levels, supporting research, and ameliorating the social and economic consequences of attempting to meet the targets.

The most developed industrialized nations led several diplomatic moves for concerted global action. However, newly industrializing nations, led by China, were quite skeptical concerning the "Western" definition of the problem and were very reluctant to accept "Western" solutions. Some nations and many radical groups insisted that the CO2 scare was a conspiracy of the industrialized nations to prevent the emergence of competitors.

Not satisfied with the global diplomatic malaise, the Europeans established very aggressive CO2 emissions targets by 2012. The U.S. and Japan followed this lead and also established strict time tables for lowering CO2 emissions. These targets and the regulations necessary to meet them became the progenitor for the development of new products and services across the globe. The rapid decrease demanded in CO2 emissions also had the predictable effect of seriously reducing economic growth. The world slid into a deep recession for four to seven years (depending on the region).

By 2015 a complex mix of international cooperative and independent national actions was under way, within a constrained economic environment. These actions included: (1) national efforts in CO2 control, including major regulations, use taxes on fuels, significant government sponsored research and development and incentives and penalties; (2) private research and development for solutions that gain market share in a CO2 "limited" world; (3) international research and development efforts of corporations and nations; (4) international regulations agreements; (5)

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

national and international emissions targets; (6) the emergence of a World Environment Council that has been delegated authority to impose sanctions on offenders of emissions targets and regulations; (7) an international agreement with a phased set of targets to reduce world CO2 emissions significantly by 2040.

The war on CO2 emissions resulted in major economic dislocations, significant unemployment, and major increases in national debts as governments and corporations attempted to implement national and international strategies. As more restrictions were placed on the use of hydrocarbon fuels, the global recession deepened. Internal combustion automobiles became seldom used; factories curtailed operations unless they reduced CO2 emissions; far fewer scheduled airliners flew and when they did it had to be with the most updated propulsion systems.

As more and more countries "came on board" with CO2 limits (the physical evidence — including disruptive climate change — was simply becoming overwhelming), a fair adjudication of CO2 emissions limits evolved from the European experience. Across the globe, CO2 emissions "credits" were allocated to countries through multilateral negotiation based on a complex set of metrics including level of industrial development, size and density of population, number of forests, etc. Countries could buy and sell their credits — their ''rights to pollute." As had happened in an earlier time in the 1980s and 1990s in the U.S. and Europe, a futures market in CO2 credits emerged and global market forces pushed the sale, barter, and trade in credits as differing countries made choices about the approach they would take to meet global standards. Within countries the re-allocation of emissions credits was up to national governments. Some, as in Europe and many parts of Asia, chose strict highly regulated rationing programs. In the U.S. regulated set-asides for "nationally critical activities" were mixed with market mechanisms for private sector utilization of "emission rights."

The world has entered into a period of considerable social crisis with inevitable political and economic instability. There is continuing tension over hydrocarbon limits and credits and over national regulations and targets which often seem to favor local industries. Many nations have increased their defense budgets and strengthened their military forces to back up economic sanctions for states not cooperating with CO2 reduction protocols and for the simple reason that the future has become highly uncertain. The dislocations associated with hydrocarbon limits have created civil unrest in many economies. Across the globe, these are very hard and acutely uncertain times.

Stagnant and recession economics has become the expected norm, globally. While oil supplies have remained stable and wholesale costs have not increased drastically (under complex multilateral treaties), end-user costs of products derived from oil have increased dramatically. Along with emissions credits, rationing of oil has become one other means of controlling CO2 emissions. But this rationing has increased production costs as manufacturers invest heavily in alternative processes. Almost all nations are experiencing high unemployment, high inflation, high cost of capital, and major loss of net worth as stock markets stagnate and decline. Entire industry segments are now at risk, if they still exist. Corporations remain marginally competitive, if their markets are contiguous with their manufacturing location, but are in serious trouble if they must rely on long-range transportation.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Of all nations, the U.S. is among the worst off. Highly dependent on CO2 emitting industries, our resources are stretched very thin as we attack the problems. The poor business judgments of earlier times, combined with governments that recklessly pursued social spending and higher public debt, left the U.S. with few options in these very hard times of restricted petroleum use, high unemployment, and interminable recession. Government debt is high and private corporations are stretched to the limit; yet vast resources are necessary to find both immediate and long-term relief of CO2-related problems. Much of the U.S. population has shaken off its earlier lethargy; Americans generally rise to any challenge. Yet they find the most vigorous actions are centered in Europe, and many join those efforts through the Internet to make the most of their contributions to the global crisis.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Scenario Matrix - Environmentally Challenged

Drivers/Scenarios

Environmentally Challenged

World Economy and Market Environment

Global recession; entire industry segments at risk, some segments doing quite well; lots of environmental rules; high unemployment, high inflation, high cost of capital; stock markets have tumbled, bankruptcies high among energy dependent companies; financial stability imposed by international government coordination.

International Trade Environment

Intraregional trade agreements prevail; cooperation within trading groups; global harmonization on environmental issues; landing rights and air space highly regulated and tied to emissions credits; environmental crisis forces international cooperation.

Political Instability

High political and economic instability; tension over hydrocarbon limits; trade tensions; civil instability in disrupted economies; the future contains very high levels of uncertainty; some rearmament (significant in some cases).

U. S. Military Requirements

Need to be able to threaten military sanctions for states not cooperating with CO2 reduction protocols; cooperative actions; tendency to want to find non-military solutions to problems; DOD pursues hydrocarbon free power systems; moderate relatively high-tech world arms market.

Global Distribution of Power & Technology

Japan, China, US, and the European Union are key powers; key to global leadership is intellectual capital (especially in science and research) - European Union may be leader in global science and research activity.

Fuels & Fuel Sources

Stable oil supplies; wholesale cost is stable and maintained through negotiated international agreement on fair price for suppliers; rationing of CO2 emission limits the use of hydrocarbon fuels; huge global effort searching for alternative fuels.

US Policy

Global environmental crisis results in bifurcated US policy responses including international scientific and environmental cooperation on the one hand and economic protectionism on the other; labor issues are highly politicized; in response to Europe's leadership in the reduction of CO2 emissions, pragmatic US cooperation emerges; no tort reform (possible reversal of earlier reforms); very US centric and populist policies tempered by

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Environmentally Challenged

 

strong regional (NAFTA +) links; lenient anti-trust interpretation and enforcement to buttress US industries; mixed pressures on bankruptcy decisions related to environmental issues, job retention, and existence of national industries; very high deficit spending and national debt; low humanitarian consensus even regarding Latin America (just trade, not aid).

Corporate Structure and Operations

Corporations are competitive if their markets are contiguous with manufacturing location but are not competitive if they rely on long range transportation; there are incentives for the proliferation of technologies impacting products or services that reduce CO2 emissions; developing countries leverage for requiring offsets is primarily limited to CO2 emission credits; environmental regulations result in high production costs and high unemployment; US job retention policies burden firms with high labor costs; interfirm alliances across geographic regions to optimize CO2 credits.

Environment

High sensitivity to all pollution issues, but spending focus is on CO2; long term effects of all products and activities are scrutinized; alternatives to hydrocarbons will have high threshold of acceptance.

Public Health

Carriers for many diseases have greater range with warmer climate; health problems from mass migration away from climate impacted areas; climatic shifts have huge impacts on public health globally; public health funding becomes serious competitor for public resources.

Public Attitude to Technology

Technology is the problem!; technology is the savior!; this debate may form the locus of political discourse; general anti-(new) technology bias.

Education

US public education is under-funded; the funding that is available flows into focused university research and global work in environmental science; independent and private funding is in applied science and technology; non-science education gets very little support; virtual education is finally being supported.

Geographic (Living) Dispersion

Bicycle world; huge disincentives to disperse; clustering near work/stores.

Communications and Information Technology

For about the first decade, strong global growth in communication, but US growth in communications and information systems tended to lag even as US companies

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
×

Drivers/Scenarios

Environmentally Challenged

 

helped drived global development; in last years communication is leveraged in all ways possible to substitute for transportation; significant computer-controlled energy management.

Production Cost Performance

Cost of manufacturing goes up as policies to reduce CO2 are implemented, driven by pollution credits; alternative fuels crucial; manufacturing location decisions must consider local pollution credits and transport costs.

Technology development and Application

Very unidimensional technology development - focused on detecting, modeling, and forecasting CO2 plus energy conservation (demand and supply side), alternate fuels and sources of energy, technology to "absorb" carbon and store in benign forms; science is done globally and technology is done locally.

Time Poverty Leisure Time, Entertainment

Time poverty is not a serious problem for most people; very local leisure and entertainment; home entertainment is very important; town picnics, county fairs, and tree planting outings.

Global Transportation Infrastructure

Integrated infrastructure designed to reduce CO2 emissions; regulated access to infrastructure; trend toward smart infrastructure (e.g., metered auto access to highways).

Safety and Security

Other issues overshadow safety; security threat (including data security) is moderate, disbursed, and comes from nations and groups dissatisfied with limits to growth and development.

Access to space

Very hard to justify unless attached to solution to CO2 problem, such as space based sensors or energy source.

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX D: SCENARIO NARRATIVES AS PROVIDED BY THE NASA/TFG/SAIC CORE TEAM." National Research Council. 1997. Maintaining U.S. Leadership in Aeronautics: Scenario-Based Strategic Planning for NASA's Aeronautics Enterprise. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5546.
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Next: APPENDIX E: WORKSHOP AGENDA »
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Although the U.S. aeronautics industry has been one of the undisputed success stories in global competitiveness throughout the latter half of this century and is currently one of the largest positive industrial contributors to the U.S. balance of trade, long-term strategic planning is necessary to ensure that the United States retains a strong and competitive aeronautics industry in the future. Recognizing that a long-term strategic plan for aeronautics requires a broad-based national perspective that includes the needs of users and consumers, the National Research Council conducted a workshop that would bring together experts from industry, government, and academia to analyze a number of possible scenarios for aeronautics 15 to 25 years hence. The results of the workshop, which are discussed in this book, focus on potential needs and opportunities for aviation and aeronautics in the future and their implications for several broad areas of technology development. These areas include new types of aircraft, improved system integration in aircraft design manufacturing and operations, passenger and crew safety and security, operating efficiency and cost effectiveness, environmental compliance and noise abatement, and access to space.

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