aeronautics that were developed by other teams for their own world. By this process, needs and opportunities were found that were robust (cross-cutting items that fit within the environment of each future scenario), significant (items that were critically important to three or four scenarios), and noteworthy (items that were novel and were important to two scenarios or less). These needs and opportunities are summarized in Table ES-2.

TABLE ES-1 The Five Scenarios and Their Dimensions

Scenario

U.S. Economic Competitivenessa

Worldwide Demand for Aeronautics Products and Servicesb

Threats to Global Security and/or Quality of Lifec

Global Trend in Government Participation in Societyd

Pushing the Envelope

Strong

High growth

Low

Low

Grounded

Strong

Low growth

High

High

Regional Tensions

Weak

High growth

High

High

Trading Places

Weak

High growth

Low

Low

Environmentally Challenged

Weak

Low growth

High

High

a The relative U.S. share of internationally traded products and services in the world economy (strong or weak).

b The level of demand for aeronautics products and services related to civil; military; and access to space applications in local, regional, and global markets (high growth and low growth).

c Direct threats to the health and safety of people, and/or the stability and viability of governments, and their implications for the United States (high or low threat).

d The tendency of governments to regulate and/or intervene in key aspects of society and the economy (high or low).

SYSTEM LEVEL TECHNOLOGY IMPLICATIONS

The steering committee's synthesis of the needs and opportunities discussed at the workshop, and their implications for broad areas of technology development, is provided below. The system level technologies identified do not appear in order of priority and have not been analyzed comprehensively to determine their relative scientific merit or technical feasibility. The simply represent the principal items discussed based on an analysis of the five scenarios and the iterative round-robin process. Further analysis will be needed in order to justify spending scarce research and development (R&D) funds on many of these areas of technology.

New Aircraft

New markets are likely to demand new types of aircraft, including short-range cargo and passenger aircraft; long-range, high-capacity supersonic aircraft; modular and reconfigurable aircraft; aircraft with autonomous, on-board air traffic control



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