APPENDIX E
TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES

As discussed in Chapter 3, the Mapping Science Committee grouped the 139 statements of anticipated changes that emerged from the five working groups into the following tables. The groupings are not unique; individuals could take the anticipated change statements and develop their own groupings. Within each table the changes are approximately ordered by ''voting'' within the respective working groups that developed the statement. As discussed in Chapter 3, these rankings, although interesting as a way of focusing discussions, were not consistent—some groups emphasized the significance of a change, others emphasized the likelihood of a change.

Table 1. Basic Computing Technologies

Anticipated Change

Computer technology two orders of magnitude faster

Continued miniaturization of electronics

Miniaturization

Wireless will be major technology for distribution of spatial data

Publicly available navigable databases

Greater bandwidth for data transmission/wireless

Saturation of wireless communication

Urban density increased, and rural density decreased, in response to limited bandwidth

Table 2. Analysis, Visualization, and Cognition Technologies

Anticipated Change

Virtual reality will change way to conceptualize and use spatial data

Spatial data as the GUI to all information fundamental

Emergence of n-dimensional geotemporal systems (holodeck)

New technology will distill information products from data glut

Virtual reality interface with GIS

Software tools sort and search heterogeneous data for relevant data



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The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop APPENDIX E TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES As discussed in Chapter 3, the Mapping Science Committee grouped the 139 statements of anticipated changes that emerged from the five working groups into the following tables. The groupings are not unique; individuals could take the anticipated change statements and develop their own groupings. Within each table the changes are approximately ordered by ''voting'' within the respective working groups that developed the statement. As discussed in Chapter 3, these rankings, although interesting as a way of focusing discussions, were not consistent—some groups emphasized the significance of a change, others emphasized the likelihood of a change. Table 1. Basic Computing Technologies Anticipated Change Computer technology two orders of magnitude faster Continued miniaturization of electronics Miniaturization Wireless will be major technology for distribution of spatial data Publicly available navigable databases Greater bandwidth for data transmission/wireless Saturation of wireless communication Urban density increased, and rural density decreased, in response to limited bandwidth Table 2. Analysis, Visualization, and Cognition Technologies Anticipated Change Virtual reality will change way to conceptualize and use spatial data Spatial data as the GUI to all information fundamental Emergence of n-dimensional geotemporal systems (holodeck) New technology will distill information products from data glut Virtual reality interface with GIS Software tools sort and search heterogeneous data for relevant data

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The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop Table 3. Pervasiveness of Technology Anticipated Change Greatly increased involvement of spatial data in litigation Intuitive and helpful user interfaces (Turbo Tax Deluxe '96); boss becomes data voyeur GIS will be enterprise-wide GIS standard office software Consumer application growth will drive down costs and increase and pay for infrastructure MS Windows 2010 has GIS embedded Personal fulfillment (recreational) data needs will dominate the growth of the GPS/GIS data industry More flexible and usable "maps" Table 4. Data Integration Anticipated Change Satellite communication-based systems that integrate data Spatial data more embedded and transparent Integrated networks of spatial database servers (free access/pay per view) Integration of collection, use, and dissemination of spatial data Spatial data undifferentiated and universally available Major advances in generalization will allow "scaleless" spatial data Adoption of family of standards by users and developers; data and metadata Greater standardization in data categories for collection (standards based on needs of most users) Technology replaces need for single standards Global data infrastructure established with sparse data coverage Information on every illness is geolocated and available to the health industry Time, along with the three spatial dimensions, is routinely encoded Period of revolt against standards before we get it right GPS and georeference of all government and commercial activities New scientific understanding of physical/chemical/biological processes will cause demand for new classes of information All appropriate data will be spatially referenced Internet enables the integration of all data

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The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop Table 5. Timely Data Collection and Use Anticipated Change Instrumentation of the environment will become the major source of real-time spatial information (e.g., traffic, weather, pollution) Wide availability of cheap, accurate, high-resolution imagery —real-time delivery Real-time Earth-observing satellite data available Real-time data collection on everything Time lag between data collection and use moves toward zero Maps on demand Much spatial information will be collected ad hoc Just-in-time dynamic mapping Real-time aircraft-based digital mapping Data on demand—driven by changing needs On-line data distribution will be prevalent Real-time dissemination Global, comprehensive, persistent imaging of the Earth Table 6. Intelligent Instrumentation Anticipated Change Instrumentation of the environment will become the major source of real-time spatial information (e.g., traffic, weather, pollution) Individuals as data input "nodes" Automated vehicle navigation a reality—precision farming Individual vehicles will be data probes Use of biological identification techniques Table 7. Data Transactions Anticipated Change Customer transactions drive spatial data creation and maintenance (records create maps rather than vice versa) Much spatial data will be collected via transactions Automated data collection in common use/transactions to DBMS Spatial data collection as transaction to DBMS Widespread, recurrent, transaction-based satellite data production-high resolution, multispectral Transaction collection, dissemination, use Digital property searches/transactions

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The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop Table 8. Personal Systems Anticipated Change Everyone will be able to have a spatially enabled communicator Positional devices on everyone and everything Personal recognizance systems Personal (cell phone) appliances that determine location and integrate with network Use of spatial data in seamless messaging and safety system (GPS, etc.) Government will have to support all "have-nots" identified through spatial data Three strikes and you're implanted with a geolocation device All probationers and parolees will be tracked by integrated GPS/GIS and their movements related to crime data Table 9. Quality Assurance/Quality Control Anticipated Change Data quality assurance institutions Data developers will create metadata Adoption of family of standards by users and developers; data and metadata SDTS dies (assisted suicide)]; increased metadata availability Table 10. Spatial Literacy Anticipated Change Emergence of a technologically aware labor force into the workplace K-16 geography teaching norms/practices in place ("a more spatially aware and literate citizenry") Spatial analysis will have caused dramatic change in all educational endeavors Education is information poor Table 11. Partnerships Anticipated Change More public-private partnerships based on competitive advantages Data utilities come from public-private partnerships Public policy will be rendered to legislation that allows public-private partnerships without unduly limiting fair usage Increased partnerships (government/university/private) for data sharing Partnerships and data sharing become accepted business practices

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The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop Table 12. Spatial Data as Commodity Anticipated Change Spatial data are a commodity Spatial data undifferentiated and universally available 1M and better current imagery on the NET accessible to all Telecommunication advances will put large-volume access application in hands of the public Collection, dissemination, use cheaper per unit NSDI succeeds—all data free Commodity use of very-high-resolution-satellite imagery Consumer application growth will drive down costs and increase and pay for infrastructure Huge ramp-up in revenue in sales of data/services Constraint on public access will be ability to pay Table 13. Control of Data Anticipated Change Major databases classified and public access restricted in response to fear of terrorism, industrial espionage, and national security concerns Local governments license their data (becomes proprietary) Access to personal data will be significantly restricted and controlled by the individual Supreme court decision on privacy/First Amendment that has unpredictable social consequences 1984 finally arrives Collection, dissemination, use is power; closely held and costly Increasing gap between haves and have-nots Global convergence of principles regarding access to government and scientific data Greatly decreased citizen privacy Case law for privacy/access issues Data cost recovery and network financing issues will be resolved Debate on privacy vs. right to know will become more intense Individuals will have open access to spatial information

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The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop Table 14. Data Collection Agents Anticipated Change Local collection, dissemination, use supplants federal Government cutbacks will cause agencies to focus on only mission-specific data needs Government data collection approaches zero—Census is a headcount only More community involvement in collection/dissemination Government agencies smaller, focus on database standards Local government will be primary collector/disseminator of spatial data Local government predominant source of data; federal and state roles to consolidate umbrella data; hierarchical responsibility Commercial sector(s) will collect everything (detailed geospatial data) and keep it themselves Greatly distributed data collection Breakup of existing nation states—decentralization of data Outsourcing and privatization of government data will have reached their limit Table 15. Data Security and Protection Anticipated Change Major databases classified and public access restricted in response to fear of terrorism, industrial espionage, and national security concerns Electronic and software attacks will occasionally interrupt the information infrastructure Table 16. Decision-Making Processes Anticipated Change Use of spatial data information for decision-making/operations management Environmental issues addressed on cost/benefit basis; dynamic modeling Telecommunications advances will put large-volume access application in hands of the public More digital government operations (major jump to intelligent robots and agents)

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The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop Table 17. Citizen Involvement Anticipated Change Indirect democracy will evolve to direct democracy Spatial data use will aid understanding of urban issues across jurisdictional boundaries Individual freedom, quality of life trade-offs will dictate data needs No potential users without access (RFD for the net) Collection, dissemination, use-based democracy Spatial information use/management/integration/dissemination at community level Parcel-based data available to all citizens (developed nations) More diverse groups of people will need to address how we want technology to affect the world Table 18. Privatization Anticipated Change Commercial sectors will collect everything (detailed geospatial data) and keep it themselves Spatial economies of scale-commercial companies dominate market sectors Communications companies plan a significant role in merchandising spatial data Increased GIS/GPS use will increase dispersion of industry Private industry will produce wide variety of business GIS products Increased privatization of government services; virtual government remains Tremendous expansion of value-added industries More commercialization of "government" data Table 19. Uncategorized Anticipated Change Selective termination of excess population Big differences between countries Global spatial data industry dominated by Asians U.S. lead/dominance in spatial technology has disappeared Boredom with on-line data glut—Internet ennui