National Academies Press: OpenBook

The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop (1997)

Chapter: APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES

« Previous: APPENDIX D: TIME LINE OF SIGNIFICANT PAST EVENTS AND FORCES
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×

APPENDIX E
TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES

As discussed in Chapter 3, the Mapping Science Committee grouped the 139 statements of anticipated changes that emerged from the five working groups into the following tables. The groupings are not unique; individuals could take the anticipated change statements and develop their own groupings. Within each table the changes are approximately ordered by ''voting'' within the respective working groups that developed the statement. As discussed in Chapter 3, these rankings, although interesting as a way of focusing discussions, were not consistent—some groups emphasized the significance of a change, others emphasized the likelihood of a change.

Table 1. Basic Computing Technologies

Anticipated Change

Computer technology two orders of magnitude faster

Continued miniaturization of electronics

Miniaturization

Wireless will be major technology for distribution of spatial data

Publicly available navigable databases

Greater bandwidth for data transmission/wireless

Saturation of wireless communication

Urban density increased, and rural density decreased, in response to limited bandwidth

Table 2. Analysis, Visualization, and Cognition Technologies

Anticipated Change

Virtual reality will change way to conceptualize and use spatial data

Spatial data as the GUI to all information fundamental

Emergence of n-dimensional geotemporal systems (holodeck)

New technology will distill information products from data glut

Virtual reality interface with GIS

Software tools sort and search heterogeneous data for relevant data

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×

Table 3. Pervasiveness of Technology

Anticipated Change

Greatly increased involvement of spatial data in litigation

Intuitive and helpful user interfaces (Turbo Tax Deluxe '96); boss becomes data voyeur

GIS will be enterprise-wide

GIS standard office software

Consumer application growth will drive down costs and increase and pay for infrastructure

MS Windows 2010 has GIS embedded

Personal fulfillment (recreational) data needs will dominate the growth of the GPS/GIS data industry

More flexible and usable "maps"

Table 4. Data Integration

Anticipated Change

Satellite communication-based systems that integrate data

Spatial data more embedded and transparent

Integrated networks of spatial database servers (free access/pay per view)

Integration of collection, use, and dissemination of spatial data

Spatial data undifferentiated and universally available

Major advances in generalization will allow "scaleless" spatial data

Adoption of family of standards by users and developers; data and metadata

Greater standardization in data categories for collection (standards based on needs of most users)

Technology replaces need for single standards

Global data infrastructure established with sparse data coverage

Information on every illness is geolocated and available to the health industry

Time, along with the three spatial dimensions, is routinely encoded

Period of revolt against standards before we get it right

GPS and georeference of all government and commercial activities

New scientific understanding of physical/chemical/biological processes will cause demand for new classes of information

All appropriate data will be spatially referenced

Internet enables the integration of all data

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×

Table 5. Timely Data Collection and Use

Anticipated Change

Instrumentation of the environment will become the major source of real-time spatial information (e.g., traffic, weather, pollution)

Wide availability of cheap, accurate, high-resolution imagery —real-time delivery

Real-time Earth-observing satellite data available

Real-time data collection on everything

Time lag between data collection and use moves toward zero

Maps on demand

Much spatial information will be collected ad hoc

Just-in-time dynamic mapping

Real-time aircraft-based digital mapping

Data on demand—driven by changing needs

On-line data distribution will be prevalent

Real-time dissemination

Global, comprehensive, persistent imaging of the Earth

Table 6. Intelligent Instrumentation

Anticipated Change

Instrumentation of the environment will become the major source of real-time spatial information (e.g., traffic, weather, pollution)

Individuals as data input "nodes"

Automated vehicle navigation a reality—precision farming

Individual vehicles will be data probes

Use of biological identification techniques

Table 7. Data Transactions

Anticipated Change

Customer transactions drive spatial data creation and maintenance (records create maps rather than vice versa)

Much spatial data will be collected via transactions

Automated data collection in common use/transactions to DBMS

Spatial data collection as transaction to DBMS

Widespread, recurrent, transaction-based satellite data production-high resolution, multispectral

Transaction collection, dissemination, use

Digital property searches/transactions

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×

Table 8. Personal Systems

Anticipated Change

Everyone will be able to have a spatially enabled communicator

Positional devices on everyone and everything

Personal recognizance systems

Personal (cell phone) appliances that determine location and integrate with network

Use of spatial data in seamless messaging and safety system (GPS, etc.)

Government will have to support all "have-nots" identified through spatial data

Three strikes and you're implanted with a geolocation device

All probationers and parolees will be tracked by integrated GPS/GIS and their movements related to crime data

Table 9. Quality Assurance/Quality Control

Anticipated Change

Data quality assurance institutions

Data developers will create metadata

Adoption of family of standards by users and developers; data and metadata

SDTS dies (assisted suicide)]; increased metadata availability

Table 10. Spatial Literacy

Anticipated Change

Emergence of a technologically aware labor force into the workplace

K-16 geography teaching norms/practices in place ("a more spatially aware and literate citizenry")

Spatial analysis will have caused dramatic change in all educational endeavors

Education is information poor

Table 11. Partnerships

Anticipated Change

More public-private partnerships based on competitive advantages

Data utilities come from public-private partnerships

Public policy will be rendered to legislation that allows public-private partnerships without unduly limiting fair usage

Increased partnerships (government/university/private) for data sharing

Partnerships and data sharing become accepted business practices

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×

Table 12. Spatial Data as Commodity

Anticipated Change

Spatial data are a commodity

Spatial data undifferentiated and universally available

1M and better current imagery on the NET accessible to all

Telecommunication advances will put large-volume access application in hands of the public

Collection, dissemination, use cheaper per unit

NSDI succeeds—all data free

Commodity use of very-high-resolution-satellite imagery

Consumer application growth will drive down costs and increase and pay for infrastructure

Huge ramp-up in revenue in sales of data/services

Constraint on public access will be ability to pay

Table 13. Control of Data

Anticipated Change

Major databases classified and public access restricted in response to fear of terrorism, industrial espionage, and national security concerns

Local governments license their data (becomes proprietary)

Access to personal data will be significantly restricted and controlled by the individual

Supreme court decision on privacy/First Amendment that has unpredictable social consequences

1984 finally arrives

Collection, dissemination, use is power; closely held and costly

Increasing gap between haves and have-nots

Global convergence of principles regarding access to government and scientific data

Greatly decreased citizen privacy

Case law for privacy/access issues

Data cost recovery and network financing issues will be resolved

Debate on privacy vs. right to know will become more intense

Individuals will have open access to spatial information

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×

Table 14. Data Collection Agents

Anticipated Change

Local collection, dissemination, use supplants federal

Government cutbacks will cause agencies to focus on only mission-specific data needs

Government data collection approaches zero—Census is a headcount only

More community involvement in collection/dissemination

Government agencies smaller, focus on database standards

Local government will be primary collector/disseminator of spatial data

Local government predominant source of data; federal and state roles to consolidate umbrella data; hierarchical responsibility

Commercial sector(s) will collect everything (detailed geospatial data) and keep it themselves

Greatly distributed data collection

Breakup of existing nation states—decentralization of data

Outsourcing and privatization of government data will have reached their limit

Table 15. Data Security and Protection

Anticipated Change

Major databases classified and public access restricted in response to fear of terrorism, industrial espionage, and national security concerns

Electronic and software attacks will occasionally interrupt the information infrastructure

Table 16. Decision-Making Processes

Anticipated Change

Use of spatial data information for decision-making/operations management

Environmental issues addressed on cost/benefit basis; dynamic modeling

Telecommunications advances will put large-volume access application in hands of the public

More digital government operations (major jump to intelligent robots and agents)

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×

Table 17. Citizen Involvement

Anticipated Change

Indirect democracy will evolve to direct democracy

Spatial data use will aid understanding of urban issues across jurisdictional boundaries

Individual freedom, quality of life trade-offs will dictate data needs

No potential users without access (RFD for the net)

Collection, dissemination, use-based democracy

Spatial information use/management/integration/dissemination at community level

Parcel-based data available to all citizens (developed nations)

More diverse groups of people will need to address how we want technology to affect the world

Table 18. Privatization

Anticipated Change

Commercial sectors will collect everything (detailed geospatial data) and keep it themselves

Spatial economies of scale-commercial companies dominate market sectors

Communications companies plan a significant role in merchandising spatial data

Increased GIS/GPS use will increase dispersion of industry

Private industry will produce wide variety of business GIS products

Increased privatization of government services; virtual government remains

Tremendous expansion of value-added industries

More commercialization of "government" data

Table 19. Uncategorized

Anticipated Change

Selective termination of excess population

Big differences between countries

Global spatial data industry dominated by Asians

U.S. lead/dominance in spatial technology has disappeared

Boredom with on-line data glut—Internet ennui

Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×
Page 61
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×
Page 62
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×
Page 63
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×
Page 64
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×
Page 65
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×
Page 66
Suggested Citation:"APPENDIX E: TABLES OF ANTICIPATED CHANGES." National Research Council. 1997. The Future of Spatial Data and Society: Summary of a Workshop. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/5581.
×
Page 67
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Public and private institutions are committing resources and making important long-term decisions concerning the collection, management, and use of spatial data. Although these actions are influenced by current pressures, priorities, and opportunities, their ultimate success depends on how these spatial data activities will be relevant to future needs and demands.

The Mapping Science Committee, in cooperation with the Federal Geographic Data Committee, convened a workshop in April 1996 to examine societal and technological changes that might occur within the next 15 years. The purpose was to consider within the context of spatial data activities a series of long-term visions and to identify societal forces and changes that would make those visions more or less likely. The workshop provided a framework for thinking about the future of U.S. spatial data activities.

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